Quote Originally Posted by Sean Osborne View Post
Already posted my own in-a-nutshell "fix" on the issue of Iranian nuclear weapons development, from the Shah to the present. Here it is again.
I think Stan wanted a solution not some other opinion about the current state of play vis-a-vis Iranian nuke weapons development, which is what you have now posted twice.
Quote Originally Posted by Sean Osborne View Post
Bottom line: The enfranchised American public will elect the next chief executive decisionmaker and those who control the funding of the national policy the IC attempts to guide through their product.
I doubt very seriously that the majority of the American electorate will have sufficient longevity of memory to harken back to this NIE as a major issue when they step into the voting booth next November. I suspect that votes will be cast primarily for that Presidential candidate who makes the "biggest and bestest" promises to improve average citizens' creature comforts by allowing them to have as much discretionary use of their paychecks as possible.
As to the election of those who control the budget (the Congress)--the incumbents will generally get re-elected unless they happen to do something viewed as particularly heinous by their constituents. Congressional elections are not won and lost over intel estimates--Tip O'Neil' saying that all politics are local is particularly right when it come to Congressional elections. Incumbency and bringing home the bacon, AKA pork, of government funded activities are generally pretty huge. (How about that $1Million earmark for a Woodstock museum?) What else explains the continuance in office of folks like Ted Kennedy? Now, if the case could be made that this NIE causes a lot of Congressional districts to lose a lot of Federal money, voters might have something to consider. I wish you good luck making that argument stick.

By the way, in my experience the IC does not try to guide national policy with its products. When asked to do so, it tries to provide advice and information to those who create and implement national policy. Please do not confuse intelligence dilettantes who worked in cabinet positions with the true intelligence professionals of the IC.