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Thread: Syria in 2017 (January-April)

  1. #2021
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post

    There was a debate here on DR Congo and Rwanda, with separate threads. IIRC no-one advocated a Western R2P at time, although there was a debate afterwards and Canadian General Dalliare appeared.

    We then had several SME and "boots on the ground" members who added their experience and weight: Tom Odom & Stan Reber come to mind.

    There is a thread open now on Burundi, which is a simmering small war. No-one here IIRC has advocated a Western R2P. To be fair I somehow expect we are paying in part some of UN / African Union involvement there (as we are elsewhere in Africa).
    Yes, I am aware of the D.R.C. thread, and I mentioned Burundi only because of spillover. I brought this particular conflict up because Outlaw had asserted that the Syrian Civil War involved genocide against Sunni Arabs and demanded foreign intervention under international law.

    I countered on the legal or diplomatic aspects, and suggested the ongoing D.R.C./Burundi War as a more worthy mission for humanitarian intervention, given:

    • The far higher death toll
    • Most fatalities being civilians (whereas in Syria they are combatants)
    • More fatalities per year
    • A far longer time period


    It was a tongue-in-cheek suggestion as clearly Outlaw is more interested in ending the Syrian Civil War (as well as the Russo-Ukrainian one) and on his terms, rather than say ending all ongoing wars or saving the most people, irrespective of location or the country(ies) involved. It is one thing to be more interested in what Russia and Iran are up to - a bias I share - it is quite another to cry genocide selectively...

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    This, 'for the records'....

    The THK flew at least 24 air strikes on PKK's positions in NW Syria and N Iraq yesterday. This strike was announced 1 hour in advance to the USA and Russia - both of which objected to it. Many of air strikes concentrated on the area around Tel Rifa'at, in northern Aleppo - where, between others, the THK hit the Rojava Radio and the CIRA-FM (plus the YPG HQ in Karacoke, in Derik, in Iraq).

    According to Turkish officials, 40 YPG and 30 PKK were killed there. The YPG confirmed the death of 'most of its media centre', then the death of 20 of its combatants, plus that 18 were WIA, of which 3 in cricial condition.

    Adding to its 'standard absurdism', the Pentagon complained that 'these air strikes were not approved by the Counter-ISIS-Coalition and led to the unfortunate loss of life of our partner forces.' Actually, the PKK/PYD/YPG in the area that was hit has NEVER fought the ISIS (on the contrary: it cooperated with it at least as often as if attacked local Syrian insurgents), it is enjoying support of Assadists and Russians - and was never a part of the SDF (it only declared itself as such, which is the same as if I would declare myself the citizen of Andorra).

    Involved TSK's UAVs can sometimes be tracked on FR24

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    ...and this, too:

    This is a link to a particularly important piece of research - filling plenty of gaps.

    It leads to a diagram summarizing results of interviews with a number of FSyA and HTS combatants involved in the recent offensive on northern Hama.

    Essence is: the FSyA had a sound plan for assaulting Hama (city) - which could have worked (they hit an area without centralized Assadist command, and then directly at the joint of two different frontlines: that's always a recipe for success). But, the HTS decided to go for Qamahana instead.

    The HTS not only failed to take Qamahana, but then began sabotaging the operation, even forcing FSyA units to withdraw - and the AAS (Ahrar ash-Sham) joined it in such efforts.

    Russian air strikes were 'only partially the reason for the failure'.

    If only a part of this is true (and there are no reasons to have doubts about this: each time the IRGC and the V Corps broke through, it was on the eastern - HTS-controlled - side of the frontlines), it is nothing short but a treachery. This even more so in the light of reports about the FSyA suffering minimal losses early on - until the HTS attacked their injured and slaughtered hundreds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Unfortunately, international "law" isn't your strong suit. In terms of applying the "Responsibility to Protect" to the case of the Syrian Civil War:


    1. There must be "reasonable prospects" of success using military intervention. I doubt that this case can be made.

    2. The military action has to be authorized by the UN Security Council. Yeah, right.



    Do countries with no military power projection capabilities have a duty to establish militaries solely for the purposes of intervening in foreign countries to protect civilians? What of Iceland?


    So what of D.R. Congo and Burundi? Should the West not intervene there first as the area of greatest need?
    BUT WAIT...THEN you really do need to read your international law..especially the International Humanitarian Law on the use of chemical weapons and cluster incendiaries which are in fact covered ..since 1929...

    SO let me get this straight...my bashing Trump on his use of TLAMS really for a "Wag the Dog" effect ACTUALLY set another US precedent...one you seemed to have overlooked in your cut and paste comments....

    He acted actually under the guise of "UNSC failed to take any action even when warned the US would"....

    THEN if I understand Putin correctly he has repeatedly accused the US since 2004 of getting involved in Bosnia and Kosovo without UNSC support...which Trump has now done...

    NOW go exactly back to the CrowBat comments you also tend to clash on and "listen" to what he has been saying as well....

    IF the US redline had been in effect implemented and the entire Assad AF grounded in 2013 including copters...then we would not have the following......

    1. chemical attacks via barrel bombs and bombs
    2. no further use of barrel bombs against civilians
    3. Russia would not have had the opportunity to enter Syria THUS
    4. no Russian cluster incendiaries/bunker busters against civilians
    5. no Russian air strikes against food...water infrastructures and no hospital bombings....
    6. no Russian troops and PMCs on Syrian soil
    7. mass refugee/IDP flows from totally destroyed towns/villages/cities

    AND certainly no recent major Russia oil/gas deal to repay Russia for all of their support...

    And more importantly no Assad.....

    Now back to IHL which apparently you feel I do not understand....BY not holding to and enforcing that 2013 red line the US has actually become "complicit" on the violations being committed under IHL by both Assad and Putin.....

    Now check that out with a local IHL Professor..he/she will agree with me....

    Emphasis placed on the word "complicit"...
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-26-2017 at 09:04 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Unfortunately, international "law" isn't your strong suit. In terms of applying the "Responsibility to Protect" to the case of the Syrian Civil War:


    1. There must be "reasonable prospects" of success using military intervention. I doubt that this case can be made.

    2. The military action has to be authorized by the UN Security Council. Yeah, right.



    Do countries with no military power projection capabilities have a duty to establish militaries solely for the purposes of intervening in foreign countries to protect civilians? What of Iceland?


    So what of D.R. Congo and Burundi? Should the West not intervene there first as the area of greatest need?
    1. Last time I seriously checked Iceland politics....they need no "saving" outside of their driven into the ground banking system that massively invested in US driven real estate deals that almost bankrupted the entire country..but that was US criminal activity driven.

    The PanamaPapers have done more for Iceland than anyone else....

    2. D.R Congo and related countries.........

    IMHO right now there are far more serious issues....namely 20-30M starving literally starving people now in Africa and other areas of the world which pose a far greater threat to people losing their lives which can in fact be answered with simply "food" and no military actions...

    Which if I understand the latest Trump WH budget he is cutting virtually all foreign aid...which includes that given to Ukraine....

    BUT WAIT...the US has had two back to back BUMPER crop years in say just corn so ship it to Africa....stamp it foreign aid and pay US producers a fair price because right now the price is in the basement globally...win win....

    BUT WAIT...because the greedy US farmers decided to park their BUMPER year in the open unprotected from moisture or in just covered storage sheds also not protected from moisture because they though the global market price would rise that entire BUMPER crop is contaminated with fungus making it unfit for consumption even by animals......

    They cannot even sell it to pet food manufacturers...not even for ethanol production...

    But hey I am not knowledgeable in farming am I?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-26-2017 at 09:19 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    ...and this, too:

    This is a link to a particularly important piece of research - filling plenty of gaps.

    It leads to a diagram summarizing results of interviews with a number of FSyA and HTS combatants involved in the recent offensive on northern Hama.

    Essence is: the FSyA had a sound plan for assaulting Hama (city) - which could have worked (they hit an area without centralized Assadist command, and then directly at the joint of two different frontlines: that's always a recipe for success). But, the HTS decided to go for Qamahana instead.

    The HTS not only failed to take Qamahana, but then began sabotaging the operation, even forcing FSyA units to withdraw - and the AAS (Ahrar ash-Sham) joined it in such efforts.

    Russian air strikes were 'only partially the reason for the failure'.

    If only a part of this is true (and there are no reasons to have doubts about this: each time the IRGC and the V Corps broke through, it was on the eastern - HTS-controlled - side of the frontlines), it is nothing short but a treachery. This even more so in the light of reports about the FSyA suffering minimal losses early on - until the HTS attacked their injured and slaughtered hundreds.
    Azor...CrowBat is trying to show you the way forward right now in Syria and no one in the US is "seeing and understanding" the big picture around HTS....

    Try going back and rereading a number of the articles that I have posted on IS/Assad and now HTS.....from say Lister...Hassan Hassan and or Ortan...

    No one of any reputation on understanding Syria who resides in the US is actually writing on this subject..why is that?

    And BTW how is Trump doing on the "I will eradicate IS from the face of the earth thingy"?

    A headline here in Germany today quoted an unnamed member of the Trump WH that Trump is executing on his Syrian strategy....

    That was needless to say a "do what moment"?....

    Why because what was being explained was no different than Obama's strategy which really was a full tilt to Iran and that was about it....but we know what Trump's view on Iran is....so something has to be different somewhere but it was not.....

    But since he is a real estate professional..he is selling you and me a "grand strategy" I guess"? They are trying to repackage an outhouse and selling it as Trump Tower...

    We will just have to wait to see if it is "finally built and is paying property taxes"....with no corruption along the way.

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    Azor...you do have a way of pulling me back in although today we are in the midst of a heavy botnet research product due for some consumers tied to Russian propaganda and US social media account holders...

    As you well know and have pointed out I have bashed both Obama and Trump on their Syrian policies and actions.....

    This goes to the Obama redline and goes to the heart of Trump's so called "new Syrian strategy" which is really Obama's just repackaged for his voters and designed to make him look "forceful and a decision maker".....

    Take a serious relook and reread or read if you have not the French released study on Syrian use of sarin......

    Right now European intel services appear to be light years ahead of the US services as it was 7 that pushed Trump collusion information to the US which had not generated by US IC sources.....

    The French regardless of what one thinks have a solid ME espionage focus....read this and ask yourself why did not Obama strike Syria.....

    IMHO...it was largely due to the Republican controlled Congress if you reread the comments they were making then...I do seriously think that if he had pulled the trigger in 2013 he was looking over his shoulder and was worrying about "impeachment" as the Republicans were even then stating he does not have the authority......that it would exceed his powers as President ..no War Powers Act in place etc...

    REMEMBER it was largely the entire Congress outside of Dems that vocally was standing up and saying no air strikes without our permission....did Trump ask for it with his TLAMS...no and what was the Republican outcry...none....

    So if this French report is accurate then why did Obama largely ignore the massive USIC evidence he had been given about Russian meddling in the US election before the election AND more importantly why did he actually believe Putin stating all chemicals are out of Syria when the French were saying no...and even OPWC was not fully certain as well...

    The report also states Syria failed to declare CW stockpiles and munitions, and try to acquire more Sarin precursors

    France makes it explicit that the sarin used in Saraqeb 2013 and Khan Sheikhoun 2017 are the same, very important!!

    France intel estimates only Bashar Assad and some of most influential members of his team are empowered to give order to use chem weapons"

    AND supposedly the Russian SVR/GRU did not know about the Assad use of sarin at all??

    AND now what will Trump and his merry band of brothers do??
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-26-2017 at 10:30 AM.

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    There was another attack in Sheikh Magsoud that was very similar to the Saraqeb attack, same munitions used. Left Saraqeb, right SM

    So that suggests the Sheikh Magsoud attack was also a Sarin attack, so that's 4 attacks linked the Syrian government starting in 2013....and responses from the US have been exactly what again???

    From Obama a vocal redline and from Trump a TLAM moment and then silence..
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Azor...so we now have a somewhat untrustworthy Russia supporting an equally untrustworthy Assad sitting on approximately 20 TONNES of sarin with a manufacturing process, large amounts of percursors and a willingness to use it.....

    REMEMBER it was Putin and his FM Larvor who joyously pointed to the high success of the Russians in getting Assad to comply and it was their recovery efforts as well AND they stated this to both Obama and the entire UNSC....

    Al Arabiya English

    @AlArabiya_Eng
    BREAKINGuring joint presser with Russian FM Lavrov, Saudi FM Jubeir says Assad regime must pay price for chemical attack on #KhanShiekhoun

    SO now what does Trump do and he is worrying over a nuclear NK....?

    The last time I checked NK has not used their nuclear capacity in an open attack....Assad has at least four times since 2013....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-26-2017 at 10:34 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    ...and this, too:

    This is a link to a particularly important piece of research - filling plenty of gaps.

    It leads to a diagram summarizing results of interviews with a number of FSyA and HTS combatants involved in the recent offensive on northern Hama.

    Essence is: the FSyA had a sound plan for assaulting Hama (city) - which could have worked (they hit an area without centralized Assadist command, and then directly at the joint of two different frontlines: that's always a recipe for success). But, the HTS decided to go for Qamahana instead.

    The HTS not only failed to take Qamahana, but then began sabotaging the operation, even forcing FSyA units to withdraw - and the AAS (Ahrar ash-Sham) joined it in such efforts.

    Russian air strikes were 'only partially the reason for the failure'.

    If only a part of this is true (and there are no reasons to have doubts about this: each time the IRGC and the V Corps broke through, it was on the eastern - HTS-controlled - side of the frontlines), it is nothing short but a treachery. This even more so in the light of reports about the FSyA suffering minimal losses early on - until the HTS attacked their injured and slaughtered hundreds.
    CrowBat..actually extremely interesting in that AQ leader recently released a video pleading with the FSA to join HTS as only HTS is able to defeat Assad.....

    Interesting as well for Sham playing the HTS game ....

    Had seen often the account @BosnjoBoy but had not followed him....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-26-2017 at 10:58 AM.

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    Senior Russian general: Russian special forces hunting militant leaders in Syria
    http://www.ng.ru/news/580106.html#

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    AND someone tell me that CENTCOM truly did not see this coming...Turkey has only been complaining about US support to YPG and PKK for months....

    US asked Turkey not to carry out air strikes without coordination. Turkey did it anyway.

    Turkey conducted airstrikes in northern #Syria...resulting in the loss of life of our partnered forces" per @OIRSpox

    So is in fact CENTCOM admitting to fully and completely supporting PKK...

    Syria More #US supplies for Kurds
    https://streamable.com/grqlh

    US-led coalition spokesman: "There are #PKK elements in Northern #Syria."
    Yes, we know and now they have #US weapons.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-26-2017 at 05:57 PM.

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    Russian killing just continues and that so called Trump grand Syrian strategy...MIA.....

    Idlib: Shocking video shows the first minutes after the #Russia|n airstrikes against a camp full of displaced #Syria|n civilians today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    CrowBat..actually extremely interesting in that AQ leader recently released a video pleading with the FSA to join HTS as only HTS is able to defeat Assad.....
    HTS is living in the same fool's paradise like Assad. And they are just after replacing his regime of terror with theirs.

    That said, I'm not surprised they're crying for FSyA to join them: this operation (in northern Hama) made it more than obvious they can't fight without the FSyA.

    A reason more to consider the Western failure to support the FSyA the biggest crime in this war.

    Interesting as well for Sham playing the HTS game ...
    They are my new Kurds now: blindly convinced they can outsmart everybody else.

    Had seen often the account @BosnjoBoy but had not followed him....
    Well, he is not really a good source. I mean: plenty of his reports are just nonsense. But, there are always exceptions: gauging by rather complaining tune in reactions from Ahrar, I would say this time he's right.

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    BTW, that fool of the CENTCOM's spox really got some good replies in reaction to his crying for his PKK terrorist pals...

    And me, fool, thought the US military just can't sink any lower after the Iraq War....

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    Default To Outlaw 09 RE: Syria

    Outlaw,

    Please excuse my parsing, which is done for brevity, clarity and greater readability of the thread i.e. occupying less of the page.

    With respect to the Iceland reference, I am asking you if a country with no military has a duty to establish one for the purposes of humanitarian intervention. Having covered the legal side, on the basis of what criteria does the United States have a moral obligation to depose Assad but China, Brazil or Iceland do not?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    2. D.R Congo and related countries...IMHO right now there are far more serious issues...
    I didn’t expect you to exposure yourself to me like that. You might as well be wearing a Trotsky t-shirt in Red Square in 1937.

    At least 3 million civilians have been slaughtered in the D.R. Congo and to a lesser extent, Burundi, since 1996, during wars in which combatants were less than 10% of total fatalities. That is mass murder. That is genocide. In Syria, government and rebel forces have each lost more combatants than the civilian death toll, which is 20% to 32% of the overall fatalities.

    To be frank, it is like speaking to someone from the 1930s who is eager to join the International Brigades in Spain to fight the Nationalists and demands that the League of Nations intervenes there, whilst millions of peasants are shot, bludgeoned, starved and worked to death in the Soviet Union, and hundreds of thousands of ethnic and religious minorities are murdered there. You claim to be separate from and superior to the mass mainstream media, yet you ignore the daily slaughter in Africa that they ignore.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Azor...CrowBat is trying to show you the way forward right now in Syria…
    That does Syria no good. I have no ability to influence events there or to impose my preferences on the war.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    No one of any reputation on understanding Syria who resides in the US is actually writing on this subject...why is that?
    Perhaps it is fatigue? After all, intra-rebel fighting is nothing new.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    …you really do need to read your international law...especially the International Humanitarian Law on the use of chemical weapons and cluster incendiaries which are in fact covered...since 1929...
    This is interesting, because Hussein used chemical weapons against Iranians and Iraqis with relative impunity during the 1980s and 1990s, and Russia, Israel and the U.S. all continue to use cluster and incendiary weapons.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    …if I understand Putin correctly he has repeatedly accused the US since 2004 of getting involved in Bosnia and Kosovo without UNSC support...which Trump has now done...
    That is not fully correct, as Putin denounced Operation Odyssey Dawn, which was under a UNSC mandate, but was supportive of Operation Enduring Freedom, which did not. Rather than UNSC approval, which Putin did not seek for himself in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine or Syria, Putin is primarily concerned with NATO: its continuing enlargement, its ABM program, and its use from 1999 to present as an offensive alliance and occupation force.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    NOW go exactly back to the CrowBat comments you also tend to clash on and "listen" to what he has been saying as well...
    I do follow CrowBat quite closely, and we agree on much. However, CrowBat believes that an American intervention in Syria, whether in 2013 or 2016, would have gone unchallenged by either Russia or Iran, and that they would have stood aside. That is merely his more risky opinion and he is in no position to claim more insight than a risk-averse analyst. I fundamentally disagree with him here, and I believe that Putin would have welcomed the opportunity to counterpunch Obama and exposed the impotence of American power that had been heretofore unchallenged in the Third World. I argued with him about the details of how Putin could have counterpunched, and CrowBat was unable to allay my concerns or refute my arguments. Capabilities, are of course, not the same as intentions.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    IF the US redline had been in effect implemented and the entire Assad AF grounded in 2013 including copters...then we would not have the following...

    1. chemical attacks via barrel bombs and bombs
    2. no further use of barrel bombs against civilians
    3. Russia would not have had the opportunity to enter Syria THUS
    4. no Russian cluster incendiaries/bunker busters against civilians
    5. no Russian air strikes against food...water infrastructures and no hospital bombings....
    6. no Russian troops and PMCs on Syrian soil
    7. mass refugee/IDP flows from totally destroyed towns/villages/cities

    AND certainly no recent major Russia oil/gas deal to repay Russia for all of their support...

    And more importantly no Assad....
    RE:

    1. Agreed. However, Assad could have launched chemical weapons by way of artillery
    2. Agreed. However, Russia has cluster and incendiary munitions, and only a fraction of the civilian casualties are caused by airpower
    3. Nyet. How would the U.S. have stopped Russia’s entry? Shot down Russian aircraft? Sunk Russian ships?
    4. Nyet
    5. Nyet
    6. Nyet
    7. Nyet. Most Syrian refugees became so prior to Russia’s direct intervention


    Some commentators have argued that Syria is a proxy war between Iranian and Qatari pipelines, both of which were being proposed prior to the war. How can Russia collect on such a deal if Syria remains a failed state? Yet Russia is making no major effort to end the war and reconstruct the state.

    This recent airstrike did not cause Assad to be overthrown. Only the Iranians can do that, and right now they want to reconquer the rest of Syria for him.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Now back to IHL which apparently you feel I do not understand....BY not holding to and enforcing that 2013 red line the US has actually become "complicit" on the violations being committed under IHL by both Assad and Putin...Now check that out with a local IHL Professor...he/she will agree with me...
    Obama’s so-called “red line” had no legal standing, either in the U.S. or internationally.

    Obama stated in August 2012:

    …a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized…That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.
    That statement barely hints at action, and neither a changing “calculus” or “equation” is suggestive of action or policy. The U.S. government expresses preferences on international crises all the time, and no scholar of international law would agree with you that the U.S. is “complicit” in the violation of these preferences if it is not willing to go to war to secure them.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    …read this and ask yourself why did not Obama strike Syria...IMHO...it was largely due to the Republican controlled Congress if you reread the comments they were making then...I do seriously think that if he had pulled the trigger in 2013 he was looking over his shoulder and was worrying about "impeachment" as the Republicans were even then stating he does not have the authority...that it would exceed his powers as President...no War Powers Act in place etc...
    The War Powers Resolution has been largely ignored: Clinton was not impeached for violating it multiple times, and Obama was not impeached for violating it in 2011.

    Obama did not launch strikes against Syria because he did not want to: he procrastinated and hoped that refusal by the British and American lower houses could be blamed for inaction. Obama waited ten days before seeking Congressional approval whereas Trump acted within forty-eight hours. Obama avoided action because Syria was and is Iran’s deal, however much Putin showboats, and Obama wanted to seal the JCPOA.

    Trump does not appear willing to tear up the JCPOA, but he is probably willing to tangle with Iran and force Teheran to choose between its bid for mastery in the Persian Gulf and the JCPOA. He seems to want to force Iran to make the first move to abrogate it.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Azor...so we now have a somewhat untrustworthy Russia supporting an equally untrustworthy Assad sitting on approximately 20 TONNES of sarin with a manufacturing process, large amounts of precursors and a willingness to use it...
    When were Putin or Assad ever trustworthy?

    I never believed that Assad ever fully surrendered his stockpile or dismantled his production capabilities: chemical weapons ensure the survival of his statelet. I believe that the Russians were aware of his duplicity but that they would not have countenanced the use of these reserves except as a last resort. I also believe that the Iranians suggested that Assad use them in Khan Sheikhoun in order to test Trump’s level of interest in the war and his resolve, as this would be preferable to shooting breaking out in the Strait of Hormuz.

    Assad has yet to use Sarin again after the strike on Shayrat.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    SO now what does Trump do and he is worrying over a nuclear NK....? The last time I checked NK has not used their nuclear capacity in an open attack...Assad has at least four times since 2013...
    Nuclear weapons are far more destructive than chemical ones, which is why chemical weapons were banned. North Korea is led by a genocidal regime that has threatened to “preemptively” use nuclear weapons against other countries, including the U.S.

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    Default Interesting Updates from the ISW

    CrowBat, perhaps this (below) is the source of the erroneous report that the SyAAF dispersed to Russian-protected airbases?

    Syria Situation Report (April 14-20): http://www.understandingwar.org/site...DITS%20COT.pdf

    April 17: Russia Allegedly Withdraws from Hama Military Airport: Russia reportedly withdrew its military forces and equipment from Hama Military Airport in Central Syria to Bassel Al-Assad International Airport on the Syrian
    Coast. Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated Jaysh a-Nasr later targeted Hama Military Airport with more than forty rockets, temporarily putting the airfield out of service after destroying the control tower and
    several warplanes.
    Outlaw, this Syrian Civil War analyst follows FSA-HTS fighting...

    Syria Situation Report (March 30 to April 14): http://www.understandingwar.org/site...DITS%20COT.pdf

    April 5: Hay’at Tahrir a-Sham Kills FSA Affiliated Commander: Fighters in Hay’at Tahrir a-Sham reportedly killed Free Idlib Army Chief of Staff Col. Ali Asmahi at a checkpoint near Khan al-Sabil in Idlib Province while attempting to detain members of the group. Hay’at Tahrir a-Sham acknowledged its responsibility for the death and agreed to form a sharia court to resolve the dispute. The incident comes after reports that a number of Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated groups including the Free Idlib Army, Jaysh al-Nasr, and Jaysh al-Izza formed a unified operations room in Idlib Province in conjunction with the covert U.S.-backed Military Operations Command (MOM) based in Turkey

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Outlaw,

    Please excuse my parsing, which is done for brevity, clarity and greater readability of the thread i.e. occupying less of the page.

    With respect to the Iceland reference, I am asking you if a country with no military has a duty to establish one for the purposes of humanitarian intervention. Having covered the legal side, on the basis of what criteria does the United States have a moral obligation to depose Assad but China, Brazil or Iceland do not?



    I didn’t expect you to exposure yourself to me like that. You might as well be wearing a Trotsky t-shirt in Red Square in 1937.

    At least 3 million civilians have been slaughtered in the D.R. Congo and to a lesser extent, Burundi, since 1996, during wars in which combatants were less than 10% of total fatalities. That is mass murder. That is genocide. In Syria, government and rebel forces have each lost more combatants than the civilian death toll, which is 20% to 32% of the overall fatalities.

    To be frank, it is like speaking to someone from the 1930s who is eager to join the International Brigades in Spain to fight the Nationalists and demands that the League of Nations intervenes there, whilst millions of peasants are shot, bludgeoned, starved and worked to death in the Soviet Union, and hundreds of thousands of ethnic and religious minorities are murdered there. You claim to be separate from and superior to the mass mainstream media, yet you ignore the daily slaughter in Africa that they ignore.



    That does Syria no good. I have no ability to influence events there or to impose my preferences on the war.



    Perhaps it is fatigue? After all, intra-rebel fighting is nothing new.



    This is interesting, because Hussein used chemical weapons against Iranians and Iraqis with relative impunity during the 1980s and 1990s, and Russia, Israel and the U.S. all continue to use cluster and incendiary weapons.



    That is not fully correct, as Putin denounced Operation Odyssey Dawn, which was under a UNSC mandate, but was supportive of Operation Enduring Freedom, which did not. Rather than UNSC approval, which Putin did not seek for himself in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine or Syria, Putin is primarily concerned with NATO: its continuing enlargement, its ABM program, and its use from 1999 to present as an offensive alliance and occupation force.



    I do follow CrowBat quite closely, and we agree on much. However, CrowBat believes that an American intervention in Syria, whether in 2013 or 2016, would have gone unchallenged by either Russia or Iran, and that they would have stood aside. That is merely his more risky opinion and he is in no position to claim more insight than a risk-averse analyst. I fundamentally disagree with him here, and I believe that Putin would have welcomed the opportunity to counterpunch Obama and exposed the impotence of American power that had been heretofore unchallenged in the Third World. I argued with him about the details of how Putin could have counterpunched, and CrowBat was unable to allay my concerns or refute my arguments. Capabilities, are of course, not the same as intentions.



    RE:

    1. Agreed. However, Assad could have launched chemical weapons by way of artillery
    2. Agreed. However, Russia has cluster and incendiary munitions, and only a fraction of the civilian casualties are caused by airpower
    3. Nyet. How would the U.S. have stopped Russia’s entry? Shot down Russian aircraft? Sunk Russian ships?
    4. Nyet
    5. Nyet
    6. Nyet
    7. Nyet. Most Syrian refugees became so prior to Russia’s direct intervention


    Some commentators have argued that Syria is a proxy war between Iranian and Qatari pipelines, both of which were being proposed prior to the war. How can Russia collect on such a deal if Syria remains a failed state? Yet Russia is making no major effort to end the war and reconstruct the state.

    This recent airstrike did not cause Assad to be overthrown. Only the Iranians can do that, and right now they want to reconquer the rest of Syria for him.



    Obama’s so-called “red line” had no legal standing, either in the U.S. or internationally.

    Obama stated in August 2012:



    That statement barely hints at action, and neither a changing “calculus” or “equation” is suggestive of action or policy. The U.S. government expresses preferences on international crises all the time, and no scholar of international law would agree with you that the U.S. is “complicit” in the violation of these preferences if it is not willing to go to war to secure them.



    The War Powers Resolution has been largely ignored: Clinton was not impeached for violating it multiple times, and Obama was not impeached for violating it in 2011.

    Obama did not launch strikes against Syria because he did not want to: he procrastinated and hoped that refusal by the British and American lower houses could be blamed for inaction. Obama waited ten days before seeking Congressional approval whereas Trump acted within forty-eight hours. Obama avoided action because Syria was and is Iran’s deal, however much Putin showboats, and Obama wanted to seal the JCPOA.

    Trump does not appear willing to tear up the JCPOA, but he is probably willing to tangle with Iran and force Teheran to choose between its bid for mastery in the Persian Gulf and the JCPOA. He seems to want to force Iran to make the first move to abrogate it.



    When were Putin or Assad ever trustworthy?

    I never believed that Assad ever fully surrendered his stockpile or dismantled his production capabilities: chemical weapons ensure the survival of his statelet. I believe that the Russians were aware of his duplicity but that they would not have countenanced the use of these reserves except as a last resort. I also believe that the Iranians suggested that Assad use them in Khan Sheikhoun in order to test Trump’s level of interest in the war and his resolve, as this would be preferable to shooting breaking out in the Strait of Hormuz.

    Assad has yet to use Sarin again after the strike on Shayrat.



    Nuclear weapons are far more destructive than chemical ones, which is why chemical weapons were banned. North Korea is led by a genocidal regime that has threatened to “preemptively” use nuclear weapons against other countries, including the U.S.
    Azor...here is your response...you still do not "get it".....

    Assad has yet to use Sarin again after the strike on Shayrat.
    Let's see....he and Putin immediately shifted to incendiary cluster muntions...literally "raining" them across virtually all of the rebel controlled areas as a form of "punishment" for the Hama offensive.

    WHY...ask yourself this single word question WHY..because Trump would not respond with TLAMs as he as did Obama both based their redlines on "CWs"....

    BUT WAIT..... ICMs used against civilians is just as illegal as are CWs....AND both Trump and Obama did not state the redlines covered ICMs did they....

    And you cannot influence?...then pick up the phone and let you Congressman know...anyone can influence if they try and to state no on can influence is a true cop out.....

    My drumbeat on Russia influence and hacking ops has brought me into a business realm that I have not been in and it was influenced by comments here are SWJ....and what we now do does in fact impact....not publicly but in the background and that is important.....

    I have my own personal "small war" in the cyber and information trenches and it is progressing nicely...and my victories are not counted in KIAs and or WIAs but in control servers taken offline...

    A serious change in perceptions is needed and every small step in that direction counts...regardless of how small...

    actually that is exactly why Russia is winning their non linear war..they may lose five steps while taking three forward...but they are always moving forward regardless of the amount of time to do it...Americans always want things done in a hurry.....

    Off of my soap box...

    BTW..CrowBat is actually correct Russia would not have intervened back in 2013...simple as that.....had in fact Obama struck Assad in 2013 FULLY grounding his capabilities of any bombing/CW use...we definitely would not be seeing Russia now in Syria..so says Lister....Hassan and Orton as well...if one listens to their public interviews.

    Fighting it is useless as history is clearly on CrowBats side on this .....

    Russia intervened after they detected the inability and or the non desire by Obama to engage on the Sunni side...and then sought to claim FP wise what they had been trying to do under the Communist days..expansion onto the oil/gas rich ME...

    Simple straight forward Russia FP hard at work...
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 04:56 AM.

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    CrowBat.....there were a number of reports coming out of Damascus airport of a very large explosion...anything on your end?

  20. #2040
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor...here is your response...you still do not "get it".....



    Let's see....he and Putin immediately shifted to incendiary cluster muntions...literally "raining" them across virtually all of the rebel controlled areas as a form of "punishment" for the Hama offensive.

    WHY...ask yourself this single word question WHY..because Trump would not respond with TLAMs as he as did Obama both based their redlines on "CWs"....

    BUT WAIT..... ICMs used against civilians is just as illegal as are CWs....AND both Trump and Obama did not state the redlines covered ICMs did they....

    And you cannot influence?...then pick up the phone and let you Congressman know...anyone can influence if they try and to state no on can influence is a true cop out.....

    My drumbeat on Russia influence and hacking ops has brought me into a business realm that I have not been in and it was influenced by comments here are SWJ....and what we now do does in fact impact....not publicly but in the background and that is important.....

    I have my own personal "small war" in the cyber and information trenches and it is progressing nicely...and my victories are not counted in KIAs and or WIAs but in control servers taken offline...

    A serious change in perceptions is needed and every small step in that direction counts...regardless of how small...

    actually that is exactly why Russia is winning their non linear war..they may lose five steps while taking three forward...but they are always moving forward regardless of the amount of time to do it...Americans always want things done in a hurry.....

    Off of my soap box...

    BTW..CrowBat is actually correct Russia would not have intervened back in 2013...simple as that.....had in fact Obama struck Assad in 2013 FULLY grounding his capabilities of any bombing/CW use...we definitely would not be seeing Russia now in Syria..so says Lister....Hassan and Orton as well...if one listens to their public interviews.

    Fighting it is useless as history is clearly on CrowBats side on this .....

    Russia intervened after they detected the inability and or the non desire by Obama to engage on the Sunni side...and then sought to claim FP wise what they had been trying to do under the Communist days..expansion onto the oil/gas rich ME...

    Simple straight forward Russia FP hard at work...
    Not a single word from the Trump WH......WHY because after his "Wag the Dog moment"...he lost his courage to respond....even verbally...

    Aftermath of pro-#Assad strikes killing 6, injuring 35 in IDP camp in S #Idlib Province

    http://eaworldview.com/2017/04/syria...theast/#idlib#

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