Russo-Ukraine War 2017 (January-April)

[Azor]

I have attempted to discuss the options for Ukraine to deal with the Russian invasion, based upon the suggestions put forth by Dueas in Counterinsurgency Options for Ukraine
and Kofman's analysis of Russian policy in A Comparative Guide to Russia's Use of Force: Measure Twice, Invade Once.

Firstly, it is crucial for Kiev to fight for support in the West, namely the European Union, NATO and the United States. This means that the sanctions must remain.

Secondly, Kiev needs to make Putin feel threatened, and what truly scares him is peaceful popular revolts (as in East Germany in 1989, Russia in 1991 and Ukraine in 2013-2014) and guerrilla warfare (as in Afghanistan from 1979-1989 and Chechnya from 1994-1995).

How to accomplish this?

• Reach out to pro-Ukrainian Ukrainian citizens in both Donbas and refugees from the war in Russia in order to provoke popular demonstrations against the war and to develop guerrilla networks in both. According to the Russian government, there are 2.7 million Ukrainian refugees in Russia, which is a large enough pool to raise a resistance movement of 30,000 and an active guerrilla force of at least 2,000, which should be able to inflict Russian deaths on the order of over 200 per year.
  
• Allow for anti-Kadyrov Chechens to have sanctuary in Ukraine and use it as a base for organizing armed resistance to his faction.
  
• Allow Crimean Tatars to use Ukraine as a base for armed resistance in Crimea.
  
• Allow Ukraine to become a sanctuary for non-ethnic Russian separatists from the Russian Federation, as well as Russian dissidents.
  
• Focus on capturing Russian soldiers and operatives and concentrating media attention on them (in addition to Russian KIAs) for distribution into Russia.

Third, Kiev needs to find a mechanism for accepting the loss of Crimea, which it won't get back, without accepting Russia's annexation. Perhaps Kiev can suggest a UN or OSCE-monitored referendum in Crimea on being part of Russia, with Russian forces confined to their barracks.

Lastly, Kiev requires socio-economic and political restructuring in order to allow for free, transparent and fair commerce and democracy to flourish. Kiev needs both the financial and structural aspects of a "Marshall Plan", but I doubt that the European Union will be in a position to provide this necessary support, either on the financial or advisory side.

Therefore, Kiev needs to establish separate security and economic ties with Poland, Czechoslovakia, the Baltic states and possibly Hungary. This could be an Intermarium that is separate from the EU and NATO, and while it would not provide a separate free trade area or collective defense area, it would provide a bridge for Ukraine to the West.

Moreover, the benefit to the NATO/EU members of establishing an Intermarium with Ukraine would be that the EU and NATO seems less and less interested in its eastern flank, and in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years, there may be no probability that Italy, Spain, France or Germany would come to the rescue of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland.

[Azor]

Azor....I keep going back to the ever increasing Russian slow stepped economic collapse as a major need to get the sanctions lifted....

Russians are eating less meat, fish, sugar and dairy now, with food prices having doubled.
http://nyti.ms/2kAgwtV

They are now back to about the Soviet 1975-78 economic range....

I think that you are exaggerating the economic damage. Russia remains well ahead of where it was during the Yeltsin era. Peak to trough, it looks bad, but Russia is doing relatively well, albeit at a lower level than the 2009-2014 period.

Certainly, Russia is more vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations, given that 60% of its exports are commodities compared to 47% for Canada. Both are roughly equally dependent upon exports for their GDP (30%), however, the European Union is far more dependent upon exports (43%), especially Germany (47%).

[OUTLAW 09]

I think that you are exaggerating the economic damage. Russia remains well ahead of where it was during the Yeltsin era. Peak to trough, it looks bad, but Russia is doing relatively well, albeit at a lower level than the 2009-2014 period.

Certainly, Russia is more vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations, given that 60% of its exports are commodities compared to 47% for Canada. Both are roughly equally dependent upon exports for their GDP (30%), however, the European Union is far more dependent upon exports (43%), especially Germany (47%).

Azor.....as probably the only commenter here at SWJ who has experienced...travelled and camped the former Soviet Union in the early 70s at the height of the Cold War Era.....rancid butter was a luxury item...bread while and when available a luxury item and eggs were almost existent the society held together due to the images of WW2 and their struggle to survive from then.....supported by a heck of a lot of propaganda....

BUT today is far different they know what the West has for a living standard...they have traveled it as tourists....they know what products are available....and on and on and on....

Old saying tourism educates comes to mind....

I could have posted for the last two years pictures of the Russian roads that make the old US settler trails of the 1800s with their horses and wagons look like modern three lane super highways...compared to what is now in Russia...

When though even propaganda cannot eliminate the pictures of the living conditions in the West as compared to those known in current Russia...combined with ever increasing wild strikes due to no salaries being paid for months....increasing fuel costs...increasing food costs reaching level of the 1980s....and their realizing that the sanctions will remain in place ...it is starting to wear on the common Russian Six Pack Joe on the street.....lemons are lemons and when they increase in price by 500% or become rare then they take notice...

When they see that over 300 Russian banks have failed largely due to oligarch corruption and Ponzi schemes and their savings in those banks are gone...and the list goes on..and the exchange rate is still relatively high for those Euros and USDs they need for travelling.

Russians are a strange lot....there is a large Russian migr community in Berlin....here because of the living standards...crime families...students....businesses tied to gangs and export businesses....also tied to corruption and gangs.

Now day to day they are voicing complaints about what is ongoing in Russia BUT when the Mother Russia propaganda calls they respond as a block against whomever the propaganda says they should attack...

THEN you see them driving massive black Audi Q7 SUVs or MB SUVs and travel back and forth to Russia living the good life between the two....BUT that is not the majority of Russians who now can no longer afford their two vacations a year in Europe before Ukraine and Crimea....

So yes I do stand by the economic observations....

Key observation...they are even running out of things to export for cash....I live near one of the main European intra connecting highways between East and West Europe...on any given day one might have seen before Crimea and Ukraine 500 Russian trucks per day on the roads....right now one is lucky to see say 100-150....that is how far off their exports are....and most of those are carrying semi finished products to be used in further building of German end products coming from German built factories as part of the global logistics just in time delivery system....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian TV shows "vodka" being pumped into Mi-28 helicopter. "Missiles won't fire without it." (Is this what they mean by Spirit of Russia?)

[OUTLAW 09]

Zakharchenko, leader of Russian proxy forces in Donetsk, effectively declares he is not bound by the Minsk agreement.

Quasi Russian annexation is now complete.....Minsk 2 is truly dead in the water now...as Putin will not reverse his recognition of mercenary issued documents....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia's occupation forces lob 300 shells near #Avdiyivka. Power lines hit & water supply halted.

73 attacks, 1 civil volunteer perished, 4 soldiers wounded in action

[OUTLAW 09]

.@USEmbassyKyiv slams #Russia recognition of DNR, LNR documents.
http://bigstory.ap.org/3b4d482383304...ccc77103d5b98#

Stronger message if came from State Dept or WH.

BUT total silence from either DoS and or WH.....

No apparent US FP as of yet....

[OUTLAW 09]

Clashes in #Kiev between security forces and men in camouflage demanding trade stop with occupied areas in eastern #Ukraine

Security forces arrested multiple persons. Medics say also multiple wounded.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hours before new #cease-fire attempt in #Donbas, omens look bad
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-pol...look-bad.html#

17:07 #Donetsk @Urriarachentsev #Staromykhaylivka: they start to boom bit by bit. Panes clink, floor jumps

105 attacks on UAF positions on February 18. Grads used in #Mariuol direction. 6 Ukrainian servicemen WIA. - ATO HQ

[OUTLAW 09]

Senate Intel Committee tells Trump administration to "preserve records" related to Russia

Now it starts......

A week before Flynn resigned, plans were delivered to him outlining a way for Trump to lift Russian sanctions
http://nyti.ms/2lwGYUg

IT appears in this NYTs article all those that have been previously mentioned in the Steele dossier that the Trump WH and Trump declared to have been a total fake....

BUT this week IC confirmed portions of that report to have been very valid and true...

NOTICE...this is extremely now interesting about this so called back channel and Ukrainians are paying close attention to who was part of this so called back channel.....

Bizarre tale of Trump associates joining forces with obscure Ukrainian lawmaker to attack Poroshenko and aid Russia.

AND there are no Russian connections on this????

Ukrainian and some initial European comments are now coming in on this NYTs article
While Pence shakes Poroshenko's hand at MSC....

Trump is plotting a Russia-backed "peace plan" to oust him....

So this was the basis for the Trump and Bannon "grand bargain".....

[OUTLAW 09]

Senate Intel Committee tells Trump administration to "preserve records" related to Russia

Now it starts......

A week before Flynn resigned, plans were delivered to him outlining a way for Trump to lift Russian sanctions
http://nyti.ms/2lwGYUg

IT appears in this NYTs article all those that have been previously mentioned in the Steele dossier that the Trump WH and Trump declared to have been a total fake....

BUT this week IC confirmed portions of that report to have been very valid and true...

NOTICE...this is extremely now interesting about this so called back channel and Ukrainians are paying close attention to who was part of this so called back channel.....

Bizarre tale of Trump associates joining forces with obscure Ukrainian lawmaker to attack Poroshenko and aid Russia.

AND there are no Russian connections on this????

Ukrainian and some initial European comments are now coming in on this NYTs article
While Pence shakes Poroshenko's hand at MSC....

Trump is plotting a Russia-backed "peace plan" to oust him....

So this was the basis for the Trump and Bannon "grand bargain".....

If this is correct, then Trump is linked to a Russian plot to undermine government of Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....as probably the only commenter here at SWJ who has experienced...travelled and camped the former Soviet Union in the early 70s at the height of the Cold War Era.....rancid butter was a luxury item...bread while and when available a luxury item and eggs were almost existent the society held together due to the images of WW2 and their struggle to survive from then.....supported by a heck of a lot of propaganda....

BUT today is far different they know what the West has for a living standard...they have traveled it as tourists....they know what products are available....and on and on and on....

Old saying tourism educates comes to mind....

I could have posted for the last two years pictures of the Russian roads that make the old US settler trails of the 1800s with their horses and wagons look like modern three lane super highways...compared to what is now in Russia...

When though even propaganda cannot eliminate the pictures of the living conditions in the West as compared to those known in current Russia...combined with ever increasing wild strikes due to no salaries being paid for months....increasing fuel costs...increasing food costs reaching level of the 1980s....and their realizing that the sanctions will remain in place ...it is starting to wear on the common Russian Six Pack Joe on the street.....lemons are lemons and when they increase in price by 500% or become rare then they take notice...

When they see that over 300 Russian banks have failed largely due to oligarch corruption and Ponzi schemes and their savings in those banks are gone...and the list goes on..and the exchange rate is still relatively high for those Euros and USDs they need for travelling.

Russians are a strange lot....there is a large Russian migr community in Berlin....here because of the living standards...crime families...students....businesses tied to gangs and export businesses....also tied to corruption and gangs.

Now day to day they are voicing complaints about what is ongoing in Russia BUT when the Mother Russia propaganda calls they respond as a block against whomever the propaganda says they should attack...

THEN you see them driving massive black Audi Q7 SUVs or MB SUVs and travel back and forth to Russia living the good life between the two....BUT that is not the majority of Russians who now can no longer afford their two vacations a year in Europe before Ukraine and Crimea....

So yes I do stand by the economic observations....

Key observation...they are even running out of things to export for cash....I live near one of the main European intra connecting highways between East and West Europe...on any given day one might have seen before Crimea and Ukraine 500 Russian trucks per day on the roads....right now one is lucky to see say 100-150....that is how far off their exports are....and most of those are carrying semi finished products to be used in further building of German end products coming from German built factories as part of the global logistics just in time delivery system....

Azor......

Russian State Duma Deputy Vitaly Milonov caught shopping for embargoed fish in Finland
http://ow.ly/TZ9J30967TY

[OUTLAW 09]

Senate Intel Committee tells Trump administration to "preserve records" related to Russia

Now it starts......

A week before Flynn resigned, plans were delivered to him outlining a way for Trump to lift Russian sanctions
http://nyti.ms/2lwGYUg

IT appears in this NYTs article all those that have been previously mentioned in the Steele dossier that the Trump WH and Trump declared to have been a total fake....

BUT this week IC confirmed portions of that report to have been very valid and true...

NOTICE...this is extremely now interesting about this so called back channel and Ukrainians are paying close attention to who was part of this so called back channel.....

Bizarre tale of Trump associates joining forces with obscure Ukrainian lawmaker to attack Poroshenko and aid Russia.

AND there are no Russian connections on this????

Ukrainian and some initial European comments are now coming in on this NYTs article
While Pence shakes Poroshenko's hand at MSC....

Trump is plotting a Russia-backed "peace plan" to oust him....

So this was the basis for the Trump and Bannon "grand bargain".....

This little known proRussian Ukrainian MP was the key individual in the secret proposal passed to Flynn mentioned in the NYTs article....

So now this shows up.....and thus the back channel to Flynn was in the end not so back channel.....

Artemenko says he attended Trump's inauguration at the invitation of Putin fan @DanaRohrabacher

Congressman Rohrabacher is a noted anti Ukrainian prorussian US Congressman who recently met with the French Right wing National Front Party leader Le Pen.....

Artemenko is from the same Ukrainian Party that Manafort was supporting during the former Ukrainian President massive corruption regime...

Manafort also mentioned in that NYTs article....

RUSSIAN response to the NYTs article....

Peskov calls leasing Crimea 'absurd." "How can Russia lease land that is already ours?" Contradicts Artemenko on Putin aides per @nytimes

[OUTLAW 09]

Looks like the Russian so called ceasefire inside a ceasefire inside a ceasefire inside Minsk 2 that the Russian FM will great fanfare at the Munich Security Conference was a lot of hot air again....

ATO HQ: Truce disrupted, no conditions for withdrawal of arms
http://www.unian.info/war/1785936-at...-of-arms.html#

UKRAINE: Military reports additional casualties as fighting continues despite new ceasefire attempt.

[OUTLAW 09]

'Unacceptable' for Russia to recognise Ukraine rebel passports: Germany

ATO spokesperson: Over the past day, 1 UA AF serviceman KIA, 1 WIA. The death of previously MIA serviceman is confirmed. 1 serviceman DOW

[OUTLAW 09]

The @OSCE's Secretary-General Lamberto Zannier condemns the Russian move, reproduces exactly the article's points.

[OUTLAW 09]

Col. Motuzyanyk: Donetsk sector: Yesterday, the fights in Avdiivka lasted 10 hours. Over the day, enemy fired 120+ rounds and 50+ tank shells

[OUTLAW 09]

The @OSCE's Secretary-General Lamberto Zannier condemns the Russian move, reproduces exactly the article's points.

Belarus said it would not recognise #DPR & #LPR documents, despite recent move by #Russia:
http://hromadske.ua/posts/vizd-do-bi...kordonkomitet#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian propaganda tour from Donetsk to Aleppo
https://vk.com/naumova_maryana

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT...Russian stepping up potential internal fighting inside Ukraine proper now....


Ria.ru reports that "Titushki", paid thugs and troublemakers, are gathering in #Kiev