Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[Jedburgh]

Brookings, 23 Jun 10: Beyond Madrasas: Assessing the Links Between Education and Militancy in Pakistan

This report takes a fresh look at the connection between schools, including but not limited to Pakistan’s religious seminaries, known as “madrasas,” and the rising militancy across the country. Poor school performance across Pakistan would seem an obvious area of inquiry as a risk factor for confl ict. Yet to date, the focus has been almost exclusively on madrasas and their role in the mounting violence. Outside Pakistan, relatively little attention has been given to whether and how the education sector as a whole may be fueling violence, over and above the role of the minority of militant madrasas.

The analysis builds on the latest, cutting-edge research on the education sector in Pakistan, as well as on risk factors for confl ict and militant recruitment and support. Madrasas are not nearly as prominent on Pakistan’s educational landscape as previously thought, and due to their small numbers and conflicting data on militant recruitment, cannot be considered the primary source of militancy across the country. The report highlights robust international evidence that low enrollment rates, including primary and secondary, are a risk factor for violence. While we lack in-country empirical data on education and militancy, this research suggests that the potential to mitigate the risk of continued militancy in Pakistan through investments in education aimed at expanding access is real. Scholars of confl ict agree that education is one of the few areas in which development policy can mitigate violence....

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den; this story I suspect has been crowded by the news of the Pakistani floods: http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....rom-south.html

Opens with:

The death of the respected cleric, Maulana Noor Mohammad (above) and 33 others in a suicide bombing in a mosque in Wana Bazaar in South Waziristan last Monday is likely to have enormous consequences in the tribal territories and risks the outbreak of serious warfare between the Wazir and Mahsud tribes.

Near the close:

If the Ahmadzai Wazir elders decide the Mahsuds of the TTP were responsible for Maulana Noor Mohammad's death then open hostilities are inevitable and TTP leader will have to fight both the Army and the Wazirs.

Looks like someone has miscalculated or wanted such a twist of fate.

[davidbfpo]

From Circling the Lion's Den again:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....killed-in.html

Opens with:

A chorus of reports suggests that Usman Punjabi, leader of the Asian Tigers or Punjabi Taliban, and five of his followers were killed in a gunbattle with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan supporters in a dispute over an Arab widow in the Dandy Darpakhel area of North Waziristan on Saturday...(and ends with) From this report and the two that preceded it on this blog, it is clear that all is not well between the 'Brothers'. They are killing more of their own than their enemies. All in the name of Islam.

[davidbfpo]

A rare article on the Pakistani Frontier Corps, by an irregular and indirect SCW contributor Hamid Hussain:http://low-intensity-conflict-resear...ier-corps.html

Ends with:

In the one hundred year history of FC, every crisis brought changes to the organization making it a better force. Seismic shifts have occurred in the national security dilemma of Pakistan and militancy is now number one threat to country's social, political and economic health. In the changed threat environment, FC-KPK has a unique role to play in the national security of Pakistan. If fully supported by military leadership with adequate resources and a dedicated group of professional officers at different levels of
command, in due time, FC-KPK can become a robust, effective, professional
and proud organization defending western frontier. This will dramatically
reduce the need for induction of regular army troops in tribal areas at the
time of crisis.

Optimism is rare and so interesting for that alone, let alone the detail and insight.

[Bob's World]

Just curious what others think as to what is more important:

A. maintaining the delicate cold war balance between nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan; or

B. Strong-arming Pakistan to go after the Taliban and AQ in the FATA?

My take, which I'm sure has some holes in it, is that nuclear deterrence is a delicate balance, and that Pakistan's employment of the Taliban as agents to maintain a degree of influence over Afghanistan, while at the same time allowing the Pastun regions to be largely self-governing was/is a part of that delicate balance. Giving them $1 billion in military aid also upsets this balance, but is so tempting of a bribe that they take it thinking they can do both: violate their long-standing agreement with the Pastu populace; balance detente with India and also maintain strong relations with the U.S.

What we forget, or overlook, is that both India and the Pashtu get a vote as well. We play a dangerous game with Pakistan; and Pakistan is playing that dangerous game as well. There are ways to get after AQ leadership without risking war between nuclear states. We should probably explore them. The tremendous conflict of interest we are creating for Pakistan cannot end well if we persist in this. At some point someone will miscalculate, and that miscalculation could lead to a nuclear exchange.

Who do we send the note of apology to when that happens? "Oops, we were so focused on hunting AQ we didn't notice how we'd tipped you into nuclear war. our bad."

[flagg]

The tremendous conflict of interest we are creating for Pakistan cannot end well if we persist in this. At some point someone will miscalculate, and that miscalculation could lead to a nuclear exchange.

Who do we send the note of apology to when that happens? "Oops, we were so focused on hunting AQ we didn't notice how we'd tipped you into nuclear war. our bad."

Not trying to go off topic, as it is related to your post....but something I've been pondering for some time:

I'm strongly of the believe that the greatest risk of a future nuclear exchange(non-state actors using a nuke excluded) is between Pakistan and India.

And I think you're post is potentially quite valid.

My question is:

From a very big picture perspective, would a very fast escalating and very sharp conflict between Pakistan/India that might suck in China be such a terrible thing for the US strictly from a clinical/geopolitical standpoint?

As I view it(and my viewpoint could be horribly out of focus):

The US possesses about the greatest "overmatch" in both conventional and unconventional force projection over all likely combined opponents than just about at any time in history, and it may become increasing hard to maintain that "overmatch".

We are only partway through this rather long-term and rather ugly global financial crisis.

Peak Cheap Oil seems to be quite real.

The US will likely need to reindustrialize or seriously realign it's economy in the coming decade or two.

Wouldn't a conflict between Pakistan/India that could see China sucked into it, with the US attempting to stay on the sidelines(maybe trying to shape or contain it) potentially see the US maintaining it's global economic/political/military dominance for an extra generation or two?

I guess the way I'm looking at it.......couldn't a simple act of omission, rather than commission on the part of the US(failing to de-escalate Pakistan/India at the brink again) possibly see the US "win" big in a Machiavellian sense(assuming complex unintended consequences don't wreak havoc)?

If Pakistan is destroyed, and India/China are seriously knocked back economically, politically, and/or militarily wouldn't that provide the US the far easier ability to effect massive and drastic(and needed) domestic economic reform(blaming it on an external crisis), take a heap of fast growing energy use from Chindia off the global energy market depressing energy prices for a reasonable period post immediate crisis, and allow the US to continue to dictate the global political/economic agenda and buy an additional decade, 2, or 3 as a unipolar player?

Hammering the fast growing economies(and political/economic/military threat posed by) of a 1/3 of the world's population to sustain our own dominace.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist by any means....but I have been wondering for a bit now that if things go REALLY pear shaped in the region, is it possible the US could benefit simply by failing to act, or act fast enough?

While I by no means see it as a likelihood......but would something along these lines already have been wargamed as a possibility?

Interested in feedback.

Should I take some crazy pills?

[JMA]

Just curious what others think as to what is more important:

A. maintaining the delicate cold war balance between nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan; or

B. Strong-arming Pakistan to go after the Taliban and AQ in the FATA?

Only two options? And why one at the exclusion of the other?

[davidbfpo]

Published on the e-journal Perspectives on Terrorism as 'The Pakistani Madrassah and Terrorism: Made and Unmade Conclusions from the Literature', which covers many points on a quick scan earlier:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/...=130&Itemid=54

Parallel is an article on Madrassah in Indonesia 'Muslim Education, Celebrating Islam and Having Fun As Counter-Radicalization Strategies in Indonesia':http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/...=128&Itemid=54

Not all gloomy!

[davidbfpo]

I know I missed this, so hat tip to Melissa Payson for the reminder. This is a CNAS product, using a local NGO (CAMP) for the polling in the FATA.

Few places in the world have assumed as much importance for the United States and its allies since 2001 as Pakistan’s northwestern tribal regions, which have served as a base for the mix of militants seeking to attack the governments, militaries and civilians of the United States, Afghanistan, Pakistan and others. Yet our understanding of this region – its politics and history, U.S. involvement there, and the opinions of those who call it home – is painfully limited.

This project aims to help bridge that knowledge gap, by combining three streams of work from the New America Foundation’s Counterterrorism Strategy Initiative: A first-ever poll of sensitive political issues in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan (FATA); New America's on-going monitoring of U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, and our series of of in-depth analyses on politics and militancy in Pakistan’s tribal areas, written by local Pakistani researchers and other regional experts.

Link:http://pakistansurvey.org/

Linked in is the definitive, open source map of drone strikes.

[davidbfpo]

Full title of a new Century Foundation report: 'Militancy in Pakistan’s Borderlands: Implications for the Nation and for Afghan Policy' by Hassan Abbas and link:http://tcf.org/publications/2010/10/...han-policy/pdf

A summary by the author on his website:http://watandost.blogspot.com/2010/1...pakistans.html

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to Melissa for picking this article up, written by Dr Maleeha Lodhi, ex-Pakistani Ambassador to the UK & USA, following a conference on:

Advancing policy implementation in Fata” ranged over security issues, Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, effectiveness of state governance, economic development, the international community’s role in stabilisation and most importantly, building a national consensus on Fata.

Link:http://www.thenews.com.pk/02-11-2010/opinion/13335.htm

No surprises, but an airing of the issues in the region.

[davidbfpo]

Discovered in browsing:http://www.understandingfata.org/

With a sub-title within:

a sincere attempt to provide a better understanding of what the people of FATA want, and what they think of issues that matter to them. The thoughts and feelings expressed through the poll will influence policy decisions within Pakistan and abroad.

Opinion polling and more, all the documents are downloadable. The NGO behind the website explains itself:http://www.understandingfata.org/aboutcamp.php

I am currently working my way through one of their reports.

[davidbfpo]

Once again hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den; a feud within the TTP:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....-brothers.html

Which ends with:

This killing and others in recent weeks, including the apparent murder of one of Baitullah Mahsud's brothers, show that many of the militant islamist groups based along the border are beginning to break down and to destroy themselves. This process, exacerbated by the drone strikes that are killing many senior commanders and attrition by the Pakistan Army, is inevitable. Lacking the discipline of the Afghan Taliban and only motivated by the idea of plunder, these groups will eventually self-destruct.

[davidbfpo]

This article fits here and hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den; citing a think tank report and starts with:

For example, the 1997 Anti-Terrorism Act does not apply to residents of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, no matter where in Pakistan they are arrested. Instead, they must be dealt with under the Frontier Crimes Regulations, drawn up by the British in 1848 and designed to enforce collective responsibility. As Yusuf notes: When suspected militants are repatriated to FATA, they often rejoin the insurgency.

Link:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....urts-dont.html

The report itself:http://www.eastwestcenter.org/filead...s/apb077_2.pdf

[davidbfpo]

From FP a short article on the role of Karachi, not Quetta:

In fact, NATO sources say, most of the Afghan Taliban frontier leadership -- known as the Quetta Shura -- had for at least three years been sheltered in Karachi under an ultra-secret program run by the Pakistani security establishment and known as the "Karachi Project." The idea that most of the leadership of Taliban's was stationed in Quetta was a "smoke screen," a top NATO source told me. "In reality, it's Karachi Shura," confirmed a top NATO commander.

Then the apparent lessons learnt from the US FBI interrogation of David Headley, who did recce for Mumbai and other places:

While analysts have for years accused Pakistan's security establishment of playing a double game with militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba -- disavowing responsibility for their actions while retaining them as "strategic assets" to be deployed against India -- recent revelations emerging from the interrogation of David Headley, a Pakistani-American accused of complicity in the Mumbai attacks, threaten to blow the game wide open.

In Headley's telling, Pakistan is finding it increasingly difficult to distinguish between "good" jihadi groups -- those that launch attacks in India or Afghanistan -- and "bad" ones that wage against the Pakistani state. Indeed, that may have been the motive for the Mumbai assault.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...wn_on_al_qaeda

Curiously this suggests that ISI and maybe others - politically - had a strategy; which is strongly contested by others, no that there is no national CT strategy. See the various articles on:http://watandost.blogspot.com/ and for example this article:http://watandost.blogspot.com/2010/1...-pakistan.html

From which I quote:

Pakistan has proven that it is a country that cannot protect its own citizens -- in mosques, shrines, universities, shopping centers and police stations. How can it possibly protect the citizens of other countries?

[omarali50]

My comment on the latest attack in Karachi: http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?268028

[Jedburgh]

DIIS, December 2010: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: An Attempt to Deconstruct the Umbrella Organization and the Reasons for its Growth in Pakistan's North-West

The present report aims to describe the concept of the militant umbrella organization Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) by looking at the organisational structure, background and ideology of the group. Tactics and recruitment strategies are also discussed, along with the various financial sources that have helped sustain the TTP. Finally, the reasons for the spread and rise of the TTP are analysed....

[omarali50]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/05/wo...n.html?_r=2&hp

The killer has a very popular fan page already, at http://www.facebook.com/Malik.Mumtaz.Qadri
I know people are trying to have this page shut down, but I think the page should NOT be shut down. People are not "radicalized" on this page, they come to this page because they are "radicals". let others see them and see what the mindset is really like. Otherwise, we will be forever plagued by Westoxicated liberals whose only frame of reference is postmodern western academia and who only know radical Muslims through the eyes of some professor in Columbia University or Berkeley...little brown children, bravely struggling against the hegemonic discourse of the west or some such...
For background on the blasphemy business, you can see my article at http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...s-to-come.html
Sorry for the rant, but its not a good day.

[omarali50]

My comments and some further discussion are at: http://accidentalblogger.typepad.com...phemyomar.html

[omarali50]

also at http://blogs.outlookindia.com/defaul...10&eid=38#more