Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

[davidbfpo]

I appreciate SAR missions can and often involve unexpected partners, but the arrival at Perth, Western Australia of two Chinese IL-76 planes must be an example:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-happened.html

[carl]

P-8s and IL-76s, both jets. I would imagine, but don't know, that this kind of search would require flying at low altitude fairly slowly. The Australian and New Zealand P-3s can do that without a huge increase in fuel consumption but normally jets can't. It will be interesting to see how the jets do in comparison to the turboprops since we are going to jets for the maritime patrol role.

[jcustis]

It would seem the Chinese jets are there to provide stores for the task force it has sent to the region, or at least to support some other sort of package.

[Biggus]

I appreciate SAR missions can and often involve unexpected partners, but the arrival at Perth, Western Australia of two Chinese IL-76 planes must be an example:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-happened.html

There's a rumour that the Chinese jets landed at Perth instead of RAAF Pearce, despite some fairly serious protests by the ATC. This may be a very interesting cooperative SAR effort.

P-8s and IL-76s, both jets. I would imagine, but don't know, that this kind of search would require flying at low altitude fairly slowly. The Australian and New Zealand P-3s can do that without a huge increase in fuel consumption but normally jets can't. It will be interesting to see how the jets do in comparison to the turboprops since we are going to jets for the maritime patrol role.

As a lifelong Orion (and Neptune) fan, I have a hard time believing what I'm about to say: I think this is probably one area where the Poseidon may have an advantage. It will have shorter transit times to the area of operations, it is able to be refuelled in-flight, and it's capable of carrying a relief crew. It's not the world's worst choice for this particular case. It might be butt-ugly, graceless and devoid of character, unsuited to low-level work just above the waves, but it does have a few upsides.

What good the Chinese are going to do remains to be seen. I understand they lost a Y-8 in the sort of weather conditions to be expected out over the search area some time ago. I am cautiously optimistic that everyone will work from the same sheet of music.

[jcustis]

Biggus,

As you are about to shift into your winter, when does that transition typically hit? Is there any appreciable effect on the open water out in the current search area (i.e. is there a race against Mother Nature's clock as well?)?

[carl]

A thought occurred to me. The airplane appears to have been flown into one of the most remote parts of the world's oceans. If it was intentional and not because of an accident, whoever headed it out there must have known how out of the way it was. Why would they have done that?

[Biggus]

Biggus,

As you are about to shift into your winter, when does that transition typically hit? Is there any appreciable effect on the open water out in the current search area (i.e. is there a race against Mother Nature's clock as well?)?

Tough call, I haven't spent enough time on the west coast to really say. I know that it's rough in the search area at the best of times, but I couldn't give you an accurate answer.

A thought occurred to me. The airplane appears to have been flown into one of the most remote parts of the world's oceans. If it was intentional and not because of an accident, whoever headed it out there must have known how out of the way it was. Why would they have done that?

Well, suicide whilst preserving a life insurance policy would probably be a good explanation if it was intentional and malicious.

[davidbfpo]

An explanation from Inmarsat how they concluded the flight ended in the Indian Ocean off Australia:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...own-MH370.html

I note this passage negates the data passed back to Rolls Royce:

..one of Inmarsat’s satellites continued to pick up a series of automated hourly 'pings' from a terminal on the plane, which would normally be used to synchronise timing information.

[slapout9]

A thought occurred to me. The airplane appears to have been flown into one of the most remote parts of the world's oceans. If it was intentional and not because of an accident, whoever headed it out there must have known how out of the way it was. Why would they have done that?

In one case it would be to destroy evidence. This could be true for a pure criminal activity as well as some type of terrorist plan that went wrong. Or to just make a mess, similar to a mass murder type situation where the whole point is to cause pain, which is why being logical is not going to get you very far when it comes to a motive.

[Dayuhan]

Sober assessment of the challenges of finding the airplane:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ssal-task.html

We can speculate all we want on the question of why anyone would deliberately fly the plane into an empty ocean. There remains a strong possibility that it was not done deliberately, that a bungled hijack, fire, or other failure left the crew and passengers dead or incapacitated and the plane ran on its own until the fuel ran out. To me that looks like the "Occam's Razor" explanation, but of course we won't know until the plane is recovered.

This incident could result in the introduction of automated systems that would send alerts or activate independent tracking systems if a pilot s incapacitated. Heavy equipment manufacturers are already introducing systems that monitor operators for signs of fatigue, seems entirely possible to adapt those for aircraft.

I've seen it mentioned that data recorders only record data for the last 60 minutes of flight, and may have erased the relevant sections. Does anyone know why that's the case? Given the state of compact data storage these days it's hard to believe that they can't include enough capacity to record data for an entire flight.