Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[jmm99]

For an oldster, it's comforting to see that some aspects of days gone by continue. One can still find TASS, Pravda and Izvestia. For my next round of comfort food, I'll try to find Cracker Jacks with prizes inside while listening to Moon River.

But, in the meantime, duty calls; and I will footnote an IL note. A prior post briefly noted Ashley Weeks' summary of why Russia's actions were illegal under IL. In her column yesterday, she posted the Russian response (albeit by a German, Stefan Soesanto - at very bottom of CSIS Kelly bios).

Its BLUF:

The Russian position for sending troops into Crimea is based upon five legal arguments.

First, the interim government in Kiev is not the legitimate government of the Ukraine as it violently usurped power in a coup d’état.

Second, the interim government is promoting a nationalistic agenda which is threatening the human rights of the Russian minority living in the Ukraine.

Third, given the fear of revolutionary chaos in the Ukraine Russia is facing a potential humanitarian refugee crisis at its border.

Fourth, under Article 61(2) of the Russian constitution, the Russian federation “guarantees its citizens defense and patronage beyond its boundaries.”

And fifth, President Yanukovych and the Prime Minister of the autonomous Republic of the Crimea invited Russia for security assistance to protect and stabilize the Ukraine.
...
[JMM: much more in Soesanto's post getting down into the weeds on these five points]

Again, it's comforting to see that the Cheka's IL department is still alive and well after all of those years.

Regards

Mike

[slapout9]

For an oldster, it's comforting to see that some aspects of days gone by continue. One can still find TASS, Pravda and Izvestia. For my next round of comfort food, I'll try to find Cracker Jacks with prizes inside while listening to Moon River.

But, in the meantime, duty calls; and I will footnote an IL note. A prior post briefly noted Ashley Weeks' summary of why Russia's actions were illegal under IL. In her column yesterday, she posted the Russian response (albeit by a German, Stefan Soesanto - at very bottom of CSIS Kelly bios).

Its BLUF:



Again, it's comforting to see that the Cheka's IL department is still alive and well after all of those years.

Regards

Mike

Nice legal perspective jm99. No luck with cracker jacks but here is Andy Williams for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_jgIezosVA&feature=kp

[AmericanPride]

Carl and Firn,

The point is that with or without Russian intervention, Ukraine would still be facing this same economic dilemma. And the problem isn't is "West better than East?" Because that's a false dichtonomy. Ukraine's integration into the Washington Concensus will unleash a very painful program on the Ukrainian people that will benefit a few small class of investors and financiers. Whatever his motivations and faults, Yanukovych rejected this program. His government was in an impossible situation given the immense pressure from both Washington and Moscow. A considerable of the portion of the population is in favor of this course of action - another considerable portion is in favor of achieving the status of a Russian protectate. The narrative of a spontaneous freedom-thirsty pro-West Ukrainian revolution is a myth.

[carl]

Carl and Firn,

The point is that with or without Russian intervention, Ukraine would still be facing this same economic dilemma. And the problem isn't is "West better than East?" Because that's a false dichtonomy. Ukraine's integration into the Washington Concensus will unleash a very painful program on the Ukrainian people that will benefit a few small class of investors and financiers. Whatever his motivations and faults, Yanukovych rejected this program. His government was in an impossible situation given the immense pressure from both Washington and Moscow. A considerable of the portion of the population is in favor of this course of action - another considerable portion is in favor of achieving the status of a Russian protectate. The narrative of a spontaneous freedom-thirsty pro-West Ukrainian revolution is a myth.

Yanukovych who stole how many millions, billions, was trying to spare the Ukrainian people the pain of closer integration with the West despite the wishes of rather a lot of Ukrainians. Yanukovych the humanitarian philanthropist. You learn something new every day.

[AmericanPride]

Yanukovych who stole how many millions, billions, was trying to spare the Ukrainian people the pain of closer integration with the West despite the wishes of rather a lot of Ukrainians. Yanukovych the humanitarian philanthropist. You learn something new every day.

You have a superficial reading of the situation and at no point did I say Yanukovych was a "humanitarian philanthropist". Quote me. At best, he was corrupt. At worst, a murderer. But that wouldn't make him any different from most of heads of state nor does it have any bearing on the fact of his democratic legitimacy, certified by an election, or the expression of the popular will of the Ukrainian population. Nor does it change the fact that sometime this month the new government in Kiev will approve the same IMF-imposed austerity measures that have failed in Greece, Portugal, and elsewhere and that Yanukovych, whatever his motivations, rejected.

There is sufficient economic data that demonstrates the failure of austerity as a growth policy. Austerity is not about growth. Austerity is about ensuring the gains of a small class of investors and financiers in a dying economy, whatever the costs to the general population. Austerity will not save Ukaine. Austerity has not saved any country. But that's not the goal of austerity. The same pain that has gripped Russia, Greece, Chile, and even Detroit will come to Ukraine. Capitalism is not about democracy. It's about profit. And austerity brings that distinction to the forefront.

[AmericanPride]

This article describes the Latvian experience with austerity. This is the "democratic" future of Ukraine if Kiev elects the IMF program:

Latvia’s solid economic growth since its economy plunged by 25 per cent in 2008-10 is billed as a success. Its unemployment during the crisis soared above 20 per cent as the shutdown of foreign capital inflows (mainly Swedish mortgage loans to inflate its real estate bubble) left Latvia with deep current-account deficits.

That said, Latvians strongly protested austerity. On January 13, 2009, in the dead of winter, 10,000 in Riga protested against austerity and corruption. Teachers, nurses and farmers held demonstrations in the months following. The national police were called to suppress protests over the closure of a hospital in Bauska; fearing local police might not do what was “required.”

Demographers estimate that 200,000 have departed the past decade – roughly 10 per cent of the population – at an accelerating rate that reflects the austerity being inflicted. Latvian demographers estimate that at least 200,000 have left Latvia the past decade, Moreover, birth rates declined from already low numbers.

Right Sector and Fatherland will get theirs. So will Washington and Brussels. Moscow's presence in Crimea will also mean they get theirs as well. But those protestors in Kiev who risked their lives for a better vision of Ukraine will be left bankrupt and bitter. Resolving the Crimea situation will not solve Ukraine's fundamental economic problem.

[Firn]

I actually I agree with the bit about austerity and it would be economic stupidity to demand certain actions to be implemented in the short term. I have written against the bane of austerity during a depression enough in the thread about the European economy.

However it is absolutely wrong to see the integration into the broader European economy just through the prism of the Washington consensus. It is in fact even completely wrong to describe the WC in such a one-sided way. It is important to keep the simple facts in mind. An it is a fact that the reforms in the spirit of the WC did also great good and were one reason why we have graphs like that.





I think you should try to step back and lookd at the big picture and avoid to see it all the economy in the austerity light. It is very important to avoid a false balance. The world is not black and white but also not a shade of gray right in the middle...

[Firn]

On a different note, I noted for the first time that indeed a lot of the Eastern and Northern FM are quite active twitter users. The Polish one:

Radosław Sikorski ‏@sikorskiradek

In Narva, Estonia, for V4+Baltic+Nordic FMs meeting, a town with 97% Russians. Can fraternal assistance from Spetsnatz be avoided here now?

[mirhond]

to carl

Your judgement is clouded by strong emotions against something I don't care, sorry for bothering you.

Carl and Firn,

The point is that with or without Russian intervention, Ukraine would still be facing this same economic dilemma. And the problem isn't is "West better than East?" Because that's a false dichtonomy. Ukraine's integration into the Washington Concensus will unleash a very painful program on the Ukrainian people that will benefit a few small class of investors and financiers. Whatever his motivations and faults, Yanukovych rejected this program. His government was in an impossible situation given the immense pressure from both Washington and Moscow. A considerable of the portion of the population is in favor of this course of action - another considerable portion is in favor of achieving the status of a Russian protectate. The narrative of a spontaneous freedom-thirsty pro-West Ukrainian revolution is a myth.

You just took the words from my mouth! (Anyway, it'd take me several hours to put the words and thoughts into the right shape, no thanks to my inferior English)

Mike, these Russian citizens living in Ukraine, are they Russian expats or Ukrainians of Russian origin?

I have heard that the Russians are dishing out passports to prove these people are Russian citizens? This to justify their invasion.

If this is so then you can't be a Russian or a Ukrainian at the same time... if dual citizenship is allowed then the national parliament can - quickly - push a new law through making it impossible for Russian citizens and passport holders to also be citizens of the Ukraine.

Russian citizens would then be required to apply for residence permits and work permits to live and work in the Ukraine. Pretty standard requirements for citizens of another country.

Well, I dare say the current international borders of the Ukraine is of Russian/Soviet origin origin, same rule applies to population. There are hundreds of thousands pensionaries in Ukraine who are not Ukranian, not Russian, but actually Soviet, some of them were smart enough to keep the Russian citisenship in order to have a larger pension.
Those who are still in the workforce may have dual identities and dual heritage but one passport - Ukrainean, because AFAIK, dual citizenship with Ukraine isn't allowed. They are often work seasonally in Russia on unskilled jobs, and I hardly can imagine a situation when Russian residents would seek jobs in Ukraine, usually it's directly opposite.
But we have dual citizenship with Tajikistan - the major source of slave labor. Russian capital just dont need that much Ukrainians running around, because they are Russian-speaking, culturally close and harder to exploit. I'd like to gun down all of this capitalists for greater justice, but my sentiment is irrelevant
ps. Is anyone here ever mentioned "Shrugging off the Soviet legacy for good?" If yes, this person must be happy - now Russia is doing it right away by reshaping Soviet borders and kicking ass of may be not too friendly but historically and culturally close nation.

[AdamG]

OSINT in action.

On Monday, a freelancer photographer called Steve Back snapped a photograph of a document being carried cavalierly in the open by British officials entering Downing Street. The document was a list of suggested countermoves by Westminster to play against the Kremlin for Russia’s recent invasion of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Some of the items tracked with what other European and American counterparts were thinking. Let’s not fuel up the NATO jets quite just yet; let’s send a monitoring team from the UN and/or OSCE to Crimea (Robert Serry, a UN envoy was nearly kidnapped earlier this week by armed gunmen in Simferopol); let’s draw up financial and energy contingency plans to help the embryonic new government in Kiev. But one item stuck out above the rest: “Not support, for now, trade sanctions… or close London’s financial centre to Russians.”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...gar-daddy.html

[JMA]

Yes, it is known how the British and the Germans have been ethically, morally and financially compromised in their dealings Russia and the criminals who direct the affairs of that state. It is assumed that the story of France is much the same.

It is more interesting to learn how the US has been either caught asleep at the wheel or sucked into similar dealings as the Europeans have. All will no doubt be revealed in due course.

OSINT in action.



http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...gar-daddy.html

[JMA]

Is anyone here ever mentioned "Shrugging off the Soviet legacy for good?" If yes, this person must be happy - now Russia is doing it right away by reshaping Soviet borders and kicking ass of may be not too friendly but historically and culturally close nation.

Yes, though there were many warning signs after the collapse of communism Russia was allowed to evolve into a criminal state. We now see the result of appeasement as the criminals flex their nationalistic muscles.

[kaur]

Former EU COM delegation head Michael Emerson has published couple interesting papers about Ukraine. Maybe Firn can comment the economical aspects of those association agreements and DCFTA. Emerson says that it all started as trade war and for deescalation all sides must solve that issue.

http://www.ceps.be/ceps/dld/8820/pdf

http://www.ceps.be/ceps/dld/8973/pdf

Ukraine is really devided country as those graphics in previous pages have showed. Here is surevey about EU AA/DCFTA and Customs union.

http://www.dw.de/ukrainian-support-f...nes/a-17189085

Next "interesting" place will be Moldova (where Russia has same kind of levers like in Ukraine) and their EU AA agreement.

http://www.cepolicy.org/news/eu-acce...mong-moldovans

One more interesting poll.

Integration with Russia into a single state is supported by 12% of respondents in Ukraine, and during recent years this number has decreased from 20% to 9%, but after Maidan – increased by 3%. The main part of supporters of this idea of unification with Russia is in the East (26%) and South (19%), while the smallest part is in the Center (5%) and West (1%) of Ukraine. By regions majority of integration with Russia in one state is in Crimea (41%), Donetsk district (33%), Lugansk district (24%), Odessa district (24%), Zaporizhzhya (17%) and Kharkiv (15%) districts, but even there support to the current status of relations with Russia - as two independent and friendly states – prevails

http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=news&id=237&page=1

[davidbfpo]

I have quickly read the SWJ exchanges on the Crimea, plus today's interview, but the writing of Professor John Schindler IMHO is always worth reading:http://20committee.com/2014/03/07/un...crimea-crisis/

Leaving aside the diplomatic reaction, the reluctance in Europe, especially the UK, to respond with any economic / financial sanctions makes one wonder if NATO can move beyond the symbolic. John's column today:http://20committee.com/2014/03/08/de...-putin-part-i/

[JMA]

Mike, these Russian citizens living in Ukraine, are they Russian expats or Ukrainians of Russian origin?

I have heard that the Russians are dishing out passports to prove these people are Russian citizens? This to justify their invasion.

If this is so then you can't be a Russian or a Ukrainian at the same time... if dual citizenship is allowed then the national parliament can - quickly - push a new law through making it impossible for Russian citizens and passport holders to also be citizens of the Ukraine.

Russian citizens would then be required to apply for residence permits and work permits to live and work in the Ukraine. Pretty standard requirements for citizens of another country.

For an oldster, it's comforting to see that some aspects of days gone by continue. One can still find TASS, Pravda and Izvestia. For my next round of comfort food, I'll try to find Cracker Jacks with prizes inside while listening to Moon River.

But, in the meantime, duty calls; and I will footnote an IL note. A prior post briefly noted Ashley Weeks' summary of why Russia's actions were illegal under IL. In her column yesterday, she posted the Russian response (albeit by a German, Stefan Soesanto - at very bottom of CSIS Kelly bios).

Its BLUF:



Again, it's comforting to see that the Cheka's IL department is still alive and well after all of those years.

Regards

Mike