Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
Replying to Bill:

Bill,

The impact of the often pervasive use of CCTV, whether by public agencies or private operators and now increasingly private individual's homes, is very moot. It did have an effect on some crimes, such as vehicle crime in car parks and street robbery in city centres. The police have almost come to the point "no CCTV, no investigation" IMHO and for serious "high end" crime, such as murder or terrorism, it is essential part of the investigative picture that can be assembled.

For multiple reasons, with reduced budgets to the fore, crime is now growing - particularly vehicle crime and violent street crime. Property crime and in particular fraud (some assess it as a third of all crime) even if CCTV exists is not being investigated. One big urban force admitted 40% of all reported crime is filed upon submission.

Crime is not static, those committing it change and the victims do too. Hence the widespread use of CCTV inside and outside private homes. So the burglar(s) simply wear masks and hats, let alone gloves to ensure no prints are left behind.

I would argue that CCTV is no longer a deterrent to most crimes, even more so when there is little prospect of an investigation. All the other technological options for "high end" crime, such as financial data and movement data stumble when there is no useful imagery.

It is difficult to find public examples of the value of LPR (ANPR in UK parlance) and a huge amount of data is collected every day. Here is one, a long running series of non-violent house burglaries in London and eventually a Manchester unknown suspect was identified. "Reading between the lines" he was finally caught in a surveillance operation. The national detection rate for house burglary is 3% and has been static for thirty plus years.
Link:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/04/24/wimbledon-prowler-finally-admits-raids-decade-burglaries/


Thanks, David, I was hoping you would provide some expert commentary on this issue. I agree with your point that crime is not a statistic, but most governments use data, arguably incorrectly, to inform their decisions. Assuming the data you provided would come to the same conclusions in other countries, then the data would undermine China's argument that the surveillance technology improves public security. Hard to argue it doesn't improve party control. I think there is a general perception that pervasive surveillance will reduce crime, but as you pointed out a few simple tricks hat and mask tricks can defeat it. Furthermore, if there isn't a credible response or post-event investigation then it serves little purpose.

Maybe when AI compliments surveillance technology the story will change, but for now, it seems the more we try to replace the beat cop with so-called modern approaches to law enforcement crime increases. Not unlike COIN, we had many small unit leaders in the U.S. who don't believe in presence patrols (beat cop). Yet it is a known fact that presence patrols deter insurgent activity, connect and increase trust between security forces with the local population, and increases situational awareness/intelligence. Simple common sense tactics almost always trump high-end sexy tactics (find, fix, finish) to achieve enduring stability.