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Old 02-03-2014   #81
Dayuhan
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Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
They fight with the same tenacity their brothers in the ME do, so much for the argument they're not as susceptible to radicalization.
Yes, they fight hard, and there are radicals. As in most places, the inner circle will not de-radicalize and they will not change. They will eventually have to be killed or imprisoned. What can be done, however, is to isolate that radical core from the broader societal base to the greatest possible extent, which makes it harder for the radicals to hide and to recruit replacements for those arrested of killed. In Indonesia the reduction in domestic sectarian conflict has not eliminated the radical core, but it has succeeded to some extent in isolating it from the broader population.

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They have no qualms about killing those from other ethnic groups, and creating communal strife is still part of their strategy, this wasn't a flash in the pan.
Clearly they want to re-ignite the sectarian fighting, but so far they are not succeeding. 12-15 years ago an incident like that would have generated an instant flare-up. That of course is what the radicals want. Hopefully they won't get it.

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I do agree that the vast majority of Indonesian muslims do not support this, but Indonesia is the world's largest Muslim nation but the 3-7% that are estimated to support these radical views still equates to tens of thousands. Of those a much smaller percentage will be motivated to participate in violent acts, but is still signficant.
3-7% of Indonesia is a lot of people. How many of those will actually give support up to the point of embracing terrorism remains to be seen, though. My guess is that a focus on Syria will prove to be a poor tactical move, as Syria is a long way from Indonesia and not a matter of immediate concern to most Indonesian Muslims... but as always, we will see. Not much to be done about it anyway, beyond keeping an eye on who goes and who comes back. That's the job of the Indonesians, and they are able to do it, though I'd assume that the US and other players will feed them any intel they can on movements of their nationals.
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Old 01-12-2015   #82
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A news report from August 2014 just found on the Indonesian counter-radicalisation programme; that starts with:
Quote:
Indonesian authorities have started transferring 170 hard-core convicted terrorists from prisons nationwide to a state-of-the-art facility in West Java.

(Citing the CT body's head) De-radicalisation is a slow process, but we hope we can see results in a few years to come,
Link:http://khabarsoutheastasia.com/en_GB.../12/feature-01
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Old 03-22-2015   #83
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It was a good interview and he didn't minimize the threat. The current numbers mean little, which is why he didn't focus on numbers. Sleeping cells can sleep, but more importantly those that return can build there their own networks in their home country much like JI did in Indonesia. The threat is serious and there is no reason it will reside in 10 years. It has already existed over 20 years. We need to find the sweet spot between over and under reacting.
First I'd like to say, I should read/hang out/post here more often. The other forum - which is still excellent - has turned a bit too vitriolic for my taste.

Back to the topic at hand:

The GoI estimates that around 5-600 Indonesians are now actively participating in the Syrian conflict. Most, if not all, of these people are affiliated with Daesh/IS, instead of the more 'professional' (to an extent) jihadi groups such as AQ or even Al-Nusra.

Recently 32 Indonesians tried to enter Syria from Turkey. 16 disappeared from a tour group (which is how most of them get to Turkey by the way), and another 16 were intercepted at the border.

So far, there is little evidence that those who do manage to return have engaged in any nefarious activities. Most just slip back into the society they left. Others returned so disillusioned that they are no longer comfortable about being associated with any jihadi movements. A small portion try to build networks.

As we do not - that I know if - have any official numbers/statistics of the activities of these returning personnel vis-a-vis the jihadi movement, could you guys give me a link with the above percentage? I'd like to see if it correlates here.
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Old 03-22-2015   #84
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WarPorcus,

I'm not sure what statistics you're looking for, but I'll do a search through my computer tomorrow and see what I have for foreign fighter flow from Southeast Asia. A few reports point to several foreign fighters being disillusioned by ISIL's extreme behavior, so hopefully that trend continues. As for Indonesia and the Philippines (similar but still very different), JI and ASG's initial core were foreign fighters from Afghanistan during the USSR occupation. The vast majority of fighters returning that conflict didn't engage in terrorism, but it only takes a handful to have a strategic impact.

We can't compare this to the Crusades where Christians go out and fight and return to their Christian homes, nations that were already somewhat extremist on the Christian side. Fighters today are returning to countries that don't embrace their extreme (and illegitimate) beliefs, so some seek to impose their views via violence. Indonesia from what I can gather from a few short trips there, discussions with experts, and reading is that the government is doing a relatively good job of addressing the concerns of their people (within reason in a developing country), so people aren't fighting because they're being discriminating against. They're fighting to impose their extreme and unpopular beliefs. We're talking Martin L. King freedom marches here (lol).

The Philippines is another issue altogether, since their government does discriminate against their Muslim population. The government does little to address the concerns of their Muslim population, and while President Aquino has a been light of hope, his time is getting short, and not unlike our system their Congress is corrupt and eager to undo much of the progress he has made. I project the situation will devolve for the worse in the Philippines.

Regardless of the conditions on the ground, the terrorists in these countries will reconnect, or strengthen their existing links with global terrorist networks based on foreign fighter flow to support ISIL. That points to a bigger challenge for security forces. I also think those who were repulsed by ISIL may find al-Qaeda more attractive if they're still looking a group to affiliate with. Reportedly, the jihadist websites/blogs in Indonesia contain a fierce internal debate between jihadists on whether to support ISIL or AQ.

For one, I see no reason this will go away in 10 years, but hopefully it can be contained to a manageable level.
Sorry for being unclear. I meant to ask if you have any statistics as the above for Europe, but for SE Asia.

In most cases, yes, the GoI is doing a pretty decent job staving off the IS/Daesh message. Having said that domestic politics often play up the muslim angle with predictable results. We are, by no means, a bastion for the IS in Asia, but it is gaining popularity in certain demographics.

What is truly astounding is still the lack of major attacks so far. This is mostly because the majority of the population is muslim, so there's some restraint there. Heavy intelligence/security operations also seem to keep their numbers down, although it does not change the fact that the radical/extremist view is a growing concern. Especially among high schools and college campuses.
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Old 03-23-2015   #85
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A few links that may be helpful.

http://file.understandingconflict.or...n_Conflict.pdf

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...s-goes-to-asia

Quote:
In 2012, ISIS’ appeal started to grow among Indonesian and Malaysian civil society groups that had mobilized in response to Syria’s humanitarian crisis by creating local awareness and fundraising. Within a year, several Islamic preachers in Indonesia had pledged allegiance to ISIS’ caliphate, and about half a dozen graduates from Indonesia’s Ngruki Islamic boarding school, previously a hotbed of Jemaah Islamiyah membership ideology and recruitment, are believed to have left to join the jihad in Syria (often with funding from Jemaah Islamiyah and other affiliated extremist groups).
Later in the article it explains that unlike returning fighters from Afghanistan in the early 90s, the current fighters have lost the advantage of surprise. Security forces will be monitoring the problem much more closely.

http://khabarsoutheastasia.com/en_GB.../07/feature-02

Not stats, but interesting nonetheless.

"
Quote:
I am sending this message to you, Moeldoko, the National Police, and Densus 88, as well as Banser," Abu Jandal states, referring to NU's security wing.

"We are awaiting your arrival here (in Syria)… If you're not coming, we will come to you. We will return to Indonesia to enforce Sharia Islam. For those who are against us, we will slaughter each of you one by one".
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...s-se-asia.html

ISIS posts footage of boy-trainees from SE Asia

Quote:
The footage depicts a group of at least 20 boys studying, praying, eating and undergoing defence and weapons lessons in territory held by the terrorist group.
Quote:
There has been a surge in Indonesian- and Malay-language material posted by ISIS online," Jasminder Singh, a research analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told The Straits Times.
http://www.mei.edu/content/map/how-i...sian-militants

Quote:
The Islamic State’s (ISIS) media wing, Al-Hayat Media Center, recently released a video entitled “Join the Ranks” that features a group of Indonesian foreign fighters in Syria. In the video, the charismatic Indonesian militant Bahrumsyah calls on his fellow Indonesian Muslims to migrate to the land of the “caliphate.”[1] It is estimated that 100 to 300 Indonesian militants have gone to fight in Syria.[2] While some are spread across al-Qa‘ida (AQ)-affiliated groups such as Ahrar Sham, this essay focuses specifically on links between Indonesian militants and ISIS. Indonesians and Malaysians fighting for ISIS appear to have formed their own military unit, the Katibah Nusantara.[3] Meanwhile, 2,000 people across the Indonesian archipelago pledged allegiance to ISIS earlier this year.[4]
http://www.establishmentpost.com/ase...outheast-asia/

Quote:
Asean is the fourth largest exporting region in the world. It is the most diverse and fast-moving competitive region in the world. All this would be lost if the region was riddled with terror attacks and violence.

ISIS presence in Southeast Asia
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest Muslim rebel group in the Philippines, has condemned extremist jihadists in Iraq and Syria, and vowed to stop the spread of their “virus” into the Southeast Asian nation.
Another Philippine rebel group Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) claims Sunni preachers have been conducting recruitment for ISIS members.
Al-Qaeda affiliate Abu Sayyaf pledges allegiance to ISIS.
Much more in the article . . .
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Old 03-26-2015   #86
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Apparently DI cells in Indonesia is starting to go active.

Last month, a DI cell in Depok - a suburb of the capital - attempted to activate a chlorine laced IED.

Quote:
Jakarta. Indonesian militants believed to have returned from fighting with the Islamic State group in Syria are suspected of being behind an attempted chlorine bomb attack in a shopping mall last month, police said on Wednesday.

The homemade device — made up of several bottles and a detonator — was discovered in the ITC Depok mall south of Jakarta after it failed to go off properly. Police said it was the first such attack ever attempted in Indonesia.

Insp. Gen. Tito Karnavian of the National Police said the use of the chlorine resembled tactics employed by IS jihadists, who have taken over a vast swathe of territory in Syria and Iraq.

“It really surprised us,” said the former commander of the police’s elite counter-terror unit Densus 88. “This is a signature of ISIS,” he added, referring to the jihadists by an alternative name. “It is connected to a group likely already returned from Syria.”

He said police were pursuing “very good leads” into the bomb attempt but would not reveal further details. Exposure to chlorine gas causes intense irritation to the eyes, skin and airways, and can be deadly.

IS has been accused of using chlorine, notably in a Jan. 23 car bomb attack on Kurdish forces in Iraq. The Syrian regime has also been accused of carrying out chlorine gas attacks.

A police source told BeritaSatu earlier this month that all the chemicals used to manufacture the bomb were relatively easily available, and that the perpetrators of the failed attack in Depok may have attempted to produce the nerve agent sarin.

Indonesia, a hotbed of extremist violence in the past, has largely dismantled the Islamic militant networks responsible for a string of deadly attacks throughout the country in the early 2000s.

But the rise of IS poses a new threat, with nearly 160 Indonesians confirmed by police as having left to join IS, and authorities worried about the potential for radicals to revive extremist groups on their return.

Indonesian anti-terror police this week arrested five men who allegedly arranged for a group of mostly women and children to try and enter Syria to join IS.
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Old 03-27-2015   #87
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Apparently DI cells in Indonesia is starting to go active.

Last month, a DI cell in Depok - a suburb of the capital - attempted to activate a chlorine laced IED.
This certainly has the potential to go viral, or at least viral enough to set back the progress Indonesia has made in recent years. I tend to look at Indonesia (like other countries) as a kaleidoscope, and with a small twist of the scope the picture can change radically. If you only view Indonesia through the eyes of a counterterrorist you see jihadists behind every bush, if you only view Indonesia through the eyes of democratic reformer, you only see hope behind every bush, and if you only view Indonesia as a businessman, you see opportunity behind every bush. Few people are that narrow minded, and most realize that reality rests upon shifting sands that can shift with great suddenness for the better or the worse.
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Old 04-20-2015   #88
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http://news.yahoo.com/asia-needs-mil...075027922.html

Indonesia military launches anti-IS operation on eastern island

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JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia's military has launched an anti-terrorism operation on the eastern island of Sulawesi to crack down on militants with suspected links to Islamic State, the armed forces chief said on Monday.
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Old 07-26-2015   #89
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Default Breaking ISIS: Indonesia's Legal Position on the 'Foreign Terrorist Fighters' Threat

An Australian academic article, which although with a legal focus does provide a quick overview of the presence and activity of ISIS in Indonesia:http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=2627961

The Abstract:
Quote:
Indonesia, as signatory and co-sponsor of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2170, has committed to suppressing the flow of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs), along with financing and other support, for Islamist extremist groups operating in Iraq and Syria – in particular the group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS). Varying levels of support for ISIS have been observed in Indonesia, including displays of ISIS paraphernalia, support rallies, swearing of allegiance to the caliphate and an uncertain number of individuals travelling to the region to fight. Recognising the risk posed by support for ISIS and returning FTFs, the Indonesian government announced a 'ban' on the terrorist organisation in 2014. However, doubt remains with regard to the legal and practical enforcement of the 'ban' by Indonesian police and actions they are able to take against ISIS's Indonesian supporters. While there have been calls for the government to enact a new law or revise existing laws to specifically address ISIS and its supporters in Indonesia, it is uncertain if or when such a law could be finalised and passed. Accordingly, this article examines the legal position as it exists under current Indonesian law with respect to preventing and punishing supporters of ISIS.
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Old 07-27-2015   #90
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One major side effect of the US invasion of Iraq was the destabilization of the Shia-Sunni line of competition that once lie along the Iraq-Iran border.

Where is that line now? Along the northern borders of Kuwait, KSA, Jordan and Israel? Is that better? Hardly.

We created a band of Shia influence that consumed the Sunni-Arab populations of Syria and Iraq - quite likely producing the strategic tipping point for why those populations erupted into revolutionary insurgency against their respective governments. There was, and remains, little hope for those populations under either of those Shia dominated regimes.

Then along comes ISIS, sees a parade and leaps in front (to paraphrase Mao who grasped a similar opportunity in China back in the 30s).

So, to this article on Indonesians, and equally to those who travel from Europe, Africa and elsewhere. Is it just possible, that they do not travel to support ISIS, but rather travel to support the return of stability to this existential Sunni-Shia competition that our efforts kicked into motion??

Similarly for (the comparatively vastly under-reported) foreign Shia who travel to this same region in support of the Shia side of the competition.

We need to stop fixating on "threats" when we think about the strategic nature (and correspondingly, durable strategic solutions) to these problems.

Here are two questions US policy makers must form and communicate answers to:

1. What is the US plan to restore stability to the Shia-Sunni line of competition? (My current belief is that the Euphrates is the best bet for a new line.)

2. What is the tangible, viable political alternative to the Shia dominated governments of Syria and Iraq that we can advocate to the Sunni Arab populations of those two failing states?


Until we address those two issues, all we are doing is attempting to suppress the current challengers and reset the political conditions of failure that brought us to this place to begin with.

We have created a modern "crusade" of Muslims traveling to the holy lands to fight for their respective beliefs. While this was not intended, it has happened, and it was very, very predictable. The sooner we work to frame and communicate a strategy dedicated to these two ends, the sooner we begin to stop slapping at the symptoms and set a course to a strategically durable result that few will like, but that all can live with.
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Old 07-29-2015   #91
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Quote:
Here are two questions US policy makers must form and communicate answers to:

1. What is the US plan to restore stability to the Shia-Sunni line of competition? (My current belief is that the Euphrates is the best bet for a new line.)

2. What is the tangible, viable political alternative to the Shia dominated governments of Syria and Iraq that we can advocate to the Sunni Arab populations of those two failing states?
I agree that for the most part the post war tensions between the Shia and Sunnis would explode into a Civil War if an effective government (read strong man) wasn't installed. It should have been clear after the USSR invasion of Afghanistan that foreign fighters from the global umma would mobilize to support their brothers. But here we are, and unfortunately strategy is cumulative, we don't have the option to start all over. One administration inherits what those before have left.

Strategy should focus on protecting and progressing our interests, and I'm not convinced restoring stability between the Shia and Sunni is feasible or in our longer term interests at this time. It seems that neither side is ready to discuss acceptable alternative forms of government at this time. As long as they feel they can achieve their goals militarily they'll continue to fight. How does this condition threaten our interests? How do we mitigate that threat? Proposals need to be feasible. Right now it seems all sides are providing just enough support to sustain the status humanitarian disaster status quo.
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Old 08-10-2015   #92
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Article posted on the SWJ News Roundup

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la...ry.html#page=1

Meet two Indonesians who are training to join Islamic State
Quote:
"I think there's some evidence that there's enough of a support base [in Indonesia] that if they got the green light from ISIS — which they haven't yet — they could quite quickly set up a structure of ISIS here," Jones said. "It would be tiny and there would be lots of opposition, but it raises concerns [that they might] follow other kinds of orders from ISIS, which could include violence."
As many readers know, over half of the world's Muslims reside in South and Southeast Asia. The potential for extremism is alarming, but unfortunately despite our claims of dedicating effort to remain left of bang, we tend to ignore this and focus on the 5 meter knife fight.

Quote:
According to an Australian intelligence report obtained by news website The Intercept, two Indonesian commercial pilots have pledged devotion to Islamic State. Ridwan Agustin, a former AirAsia pilot, may have already traveled to Syria
.

It doesn't many to have a strategic impact. ISIL conducts a more or less conventional in Syria and Iraq, and an atomized global surrogate war with self-radicalized individuals of various capabilities. An airline pilot controls a potential weapon of mass destruction.

Quote:
"For Muslim people, there's a quite famous proverb: Live in dignity, or die in jihad. If we die doing this, we will have won."
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Old 10-26-2015   #93
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Default Countering the (Re-) Production of Militancy in Indonesia: between Coercion and Persu

An article in the free online journal Perspectives on Terrorism 'Countering the (Re-) Production of Militancy in Indonesia: between Coercion and Persuasion' by Paul Carnegie.

The Abstract:
Quote:
In the early 2000s, Indonesia witnessed a proliferation of Islamist paramilitary groups and terror activity in the wake of Suharto’s downfall. Having said this, over the years since Suharto’s downfall, the dire threat predictions have largely failed to materialize at least strategically. This outcome raises some interesting questions about the ways in which Indonesian policy responded to the security threat posed by Islamist militancy. Drawing on Temby’s thesis about Darul Islam and Negara Islam Indonesia and combining this with Colombijn and Lindblad’s concept of ‘reservoirs of violence’, the following article argues that countering the conditioning factors underlying militancy and the legacy of different ‘imagined de-colonizations’ is critical for degrading militant threats (especially Islamist ones) in Indonesia. Persistent and excessive punitive action by the state is counter-productive in the long run. It runs too high a risk of antagonizing and further polarizing oppositional segments of the population. That in turn perpetuates a ‘ghettoized’ sense of enmity and alienation amongst them towards the state and wider society. By situating localized responses to the problem in historical context, the following underscores the importance of preventative persuasion measures for limiting the reproduction of militancy in Indonesia.
Link:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/...ticle/view/458
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Old 12-21-2015   #94
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Default Archipelago Islam: Indonesia's way to counter extremism

An excellent BBC report on Indonesia the world's most populous Muslim nation, which includes how extremism is there knawing away:http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35055487

A key passage:
Quote:
Archipelago Islam, or Islam Nusantara as it's known locally, was built over the centuries on Islam that arrived from several other parts of the world and was initially intertwined with Hinduism and ancient Javanese religions. In a large and diverse country stretching over 3,000 miles from east to west and composed of more than 17,000 islands, a less tolerant and inclusive interpretation of the Muslim faith may have struggled to survive. It came to be based on five principles - social justice; a just and civilised humanity; belief in one God; Indonesian unity; government by the will and consent of the people.
There is a main thread on Indonesia, mainly on terrorism:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...read.php?t=737
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Old 12-22-2015   #95
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Its a good PR effort, and who knows, it may even work. But anyone with any knowledge of history will find it hard to stay on message with a straight face. Javanese Islam is more eclectic than the rest, but at both the Eastern and Western ends, much more "traditional" Islam did indeed find it possible to survive and even thrive. The problem with this approach (to cover up actual history with platitudes like Yenni's "five principles") is that they are liable to exposure and lack depth or staying power.
On the other hand, maybe that is just because some of us (luckily, very few of us) are incorrigible pessimists and cynics or far too pedantic about history for our own good... Maybe (and I sincerely hope this is the case) a mildly hedonistic consumer culture can build a new "moderate" and tolerant national identity out of scattered bits of Javanese multicultralism and big dollops of modern state-sponsored "messaging" (aka propaganda).
I am not being facetious. I really really do hope this can work. The alternatives are all far more unpleasant.
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Old 01-14-2016   #96
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Default We're back - terror attack in Jakarta

A developing situation after a bomb and gun attack, possibly mobile. Six dead, including three police officers.

Rolling news coverage:http://www.theguardian.com/world/liv...rolling-report and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-35309116
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Old 01-14-2016   #97
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My simple two-variant model of susceptibility to Jihadist terrorism would have predicted this.
Indonesia, modest Sunni-shariahist affiliation plus modestly dysfunctional state = higher risk than more shariahist but also more competent/harsh/oppressive Malaysia.
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Old 09-26-2016   #98
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Default Lessons to learn from Indonesia

Hat tip to Atlantic magazine for this article, which is a review of a book on far wider issues. So back to Indonesia:
Quote:
The big truth is that Indonesia has come close to effectively eliminating the threat of extremist violence

(He ends with) The big truth is that Indonesia has come close to effectively eliminating the threat of extremist violence,” Tepperman writes. An alternative truth is that Indonesia, through complicated and controversial means, has, for the moment, significantly reduced the threat of extremist violence from terrorists. It’s certainly an achievement, but it’s one that lies somewhere between a stopgap and a solution.
Link:http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...orism/500951/?
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