Economics and Irregular Warfare

[J Wolfsberger]

I suspect, based on my own MBA experience and some of the postings, that the education, guidance, planning, etc. for economic reconstruction/development has all been based on US experience. That is, it applies to a well developed economy in an industrial (or post industrial) state of development, with well developed judicial infrastructure to apply and enforce a well developed body of business law.

Absolutely none of which applies to Afghanistan. In short, it is taking a macro-economic approach in a country where the closest thing to a macro-economy is the heroin trade.

So, for what it’s worth, here’s my recommendation, based on what I understand the real situation to be on the ground in rural areas.

1. What do these villagers produce? Of that, what do they consume locally, and what do they trade with other villages, towns or cities?
2. What do they consume? How much of that is produced locally, and how much comes from other villages, towns or cities?
3. How do they exchange value? How much of this local trade is based on currency, and what currency is it? How much local economic activity is based on barter?
4. What do or could the locals produce that could go to a larger market? What do they need in the way of additional infrastructure to produce it?
5. Are there any micro-loan programs in place to finance starting or increasing production of goods for local consumption or trade? Why not?

In other words, the approach,. for now, needs to be entirely on increasing/supporting localized micro-economic activity.

These are just of the top of my head, and I could come up with more given more time. The bottom line is that the type of development plans likely to be produced by the usual suspects will be (probably have been) wildly inappropriate to the reality on the ground where it counts: rural Afghanistan.

MM12, vertnyc, I’ve had some specialized training in the area going back to my own adventure in self employment (). I may have some information or pointers I could transmit. PM me if you’re interested.