AfPak: an overview of Pakistan / Afghanistan

[jmm99]

The lead stories for 14-15 Mar at Thai-Indian News are not very upbeat.

[Ron Humphrey]

The lead stories for 14-15 Mar at Thai-Indian News are not very upbeat.

Although their perspective on Pakistan is what one might expect I was caught by the perception of our own governance in the same place

Obama aides admit presentational errors making him less popular

Placing this in tandem with their perception of what they think we can do for or with Pakistan is truly troublesome

Silliest thing about the whole deal is I'd bet you anything there's probably a parking garage attendant at the White house who could have given them a heads up that the chosen gifts for Brown might not have been the most(shall we say appropriate

[davidbfpo]

I have moved two posts on another thread, Special Warafre 1962, by Bob's World and George S., to this a more appropriate thread on Afghanistan / Pakistan. The other thread started IMHO to disperse somewhat. (PM to both sent). So if the views seem slightly disjointed blame me and look at the other thread please.

davidbfpo

[jmm99]

re: the question I asked in post #10 ?

[Culpeper]

re: the question I asked in post #10 ?

This one pretty much sums it up for me...

March 15th, 2009 - 4:44 pm ICT by ANI -
Islamabad, Mar. 15 (ANI): United States Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker has said there is an awful lot of support for the insurgency in Pakistan, which enabled terrorists to launch attacks ...

[jmm99]

is not with the Taliban insurgency (or any other form of Pashtun nationalism), but with the larger issue of dissention in the majority Punjab and Sindh areas - in short, a breakdown in the "arrangements" that have constituted mainstream Pakistani politics. No doubt, the Taliban would take advantage of a breakdown in mainstream Pakistani governance; but, in the event of that, we would be facing much more pressing problems (IMO).

-----------------------------

PS: Culpeper - among the other articles on the T-I News page is an updated survey showing that a majority of Pakistanis (presumably Punjab and Sindh) are very concerned about extremist Islamic VNSAs.

[George L. Singleton]

jmm99 your posted concerns about the near term and longer time events in Pakistan, Sindh and Punjab, are valid but I suggest not yet realizable by the Taliban and al Qaida.

While Lahore is where the Pakistan Taliban were founded in about 1978, their impact there is limited thus far. My opinion is that it only takes a handful of youths to shoot up the Shrilankan cricket team (Ceylon team to us old timers), thereby creating world media frenzy that "the Taliban are coming!"

In Karachi the Pakistan national and Sinda provincial governments, plus the Army, Navy, and Air Force of Paksitan, all of which have multiple bases in and around Karachi, are well aware of the 1.5 million Pukhtuns out of the total Karachi population of around 14 million as trouble making areas to be watched and well "policed."

1. And, I do know from past and current friendships in Pakistan that as all Muslims at not terrorists neither are all Pukhtuns Taliban or al Qaida. There is a huge middle group of Pukhtuns who make a good honest living in Pakistan business, government and the miliary who are in the main loyal Pakistanis.

2. Then there is a second in size group of Pukhtuns, some educated, some illiterate, who favor for various reasons a peaceful secession from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and part of India adjacent to Lahore...and who even in some cases are willing to remain a loyal part of Pakistan in exchange for what has just recently happened, the renaming of the former NWFP as "Pukhtunwanaland" or some such spelling, which gives them primary, focused ethnic recognition [rightly or wrongly, as there are minorities tribes who are not Pukhtuns who are suffering greatly at the hands of the Taliban terrorist Pukhtuns, and even more moderate Pukhtuns if given too much of a swelled head could come down on and discriminate against non-Pukhtuns in their midst...a very slippeyr slope in my view.

3. And a third group of Pukhtuns who seem to favor a violent revolution to create Pakhtuawanaland, or some such spelling, to be made up of most of Afghanistan, various parts of Northern Pakistan and northern Waziristan, even across through Lahore into Pukhtun populated parts in India across from Lahore, that area of India/Guijirat (?).

This ethnic disunity can be as much our ally as our enemy. Wise Pakistani political leadersh may be able to continue to straddle that fence with the Pukhtuns who are otherwise not loyal to the nation of Pakistan.

I believe, only my opinion, that examples of 4-5 teenage to early 20s age boys killing Lahore police and wounding Ceylon cricketers; of youthful, often teenage bloggers on various Pukhtun websites blabbing their boastful threats of violence and their wish for freedom, etc. are far from the majority it would take to start and successfully sustain a major revolutionary uprising.

I do know that many non-Taliban Pukhtuns hate and have no use for the Talban nor for al Qaida...even though the Taliban and al Qaida would like to exploit their general confused discordant attitudes, which I again believe are a minority of Pukhtuns, far from a majority of same.

Remember, there are more Muslims today in India than in all of Pakistan, and India has both Pukhtun separatists as well as other ethnic minorities who are wouldbe kings of the mountain. So, if India, a democracy, is holding things together, Pakistan, which is smaller geographically and has a huge non-Pukhtun majority of 85% of the total Pak population can muddle through until "better times" can be planned out, somehow.

[davidbfpo]

david, re: the question I asked in post #10 ?

JMM,

Distracted at the moment and have not watched Pakistan as closely as usual. I did watch the newsreel yesterday of Sharif's "long march" and the BBC repporter's comment that the police were active in opposition and then disappeared.

Others who watch Pakistan have remarked that the abyss is not close-by and that large parts of civil society remain strong. Not sure if the decision to restore the Chief Justice supports or detracts from this.

davidbfpo

[jmm99]

Seems the immediate crisis is over for the time being - per Reuters and Thai-Indian News.

The restoration of Pakistan's Chief Justice in the larger sense, brings us back to the Taliban in the NWFP. There, more sharia courts are announced.

Sharia courts in other areas of province soon, says NWFP information minister
March 16th, 2009 - 11:55 am ICT by ANI -

Mingora (Pakistan), Mar.16 (ANI): The North West Frontier Province (NWFP) Government has announced plans to establish sharia courts in other parts of the province.

Over a dozen related stories at the last link.

[George L. Singleton]

JMM,

Distracted at the moment and have not watched Pakistan as closely as usual. I did watch the newsreel yesterday of Sharif's "long march" and the BBC repporter's comment that the police were active in opposition and then disappeared.

Others who watch Pakistan have remarked that the abyss is not close-by and that large parts of civil society remain strong. Not sure if the decision to restore the Chief Justice supports or detracts from this.

davidbfpo

David et al:

The Shariff brothers are among the wealthiest land owners in and from the Pakistani Province of Punjab.

Punjab used to inclue all of what is today's NWFP, until 1901, as I wrote on SWJ yesterday.

The Shariff family reaches back to Raj era India and had and still has vast land, timber, and mining holdings both in today's Pakistani Punjab, as well as inside today's NWFP and inside today's Swat. I think the Shariffs own copper mine(s) in Swat, among other things.

To my eye these economic business interests the Shariffs own in now troubled terrorist zones explains to me that ex-PM Shariff when he was PM (overthrown in 1999 by Musharraf who knows all about these holdngs) and his brother have in the past (through 1999) and are again at the present among the power centers favoring "deals" with the Taliban...in order to preserve and protect their land, timber, and mining and any other related business interests in ex-Punjab zone now defined as today's NWFP, Swat, etc.

Hope this background helps you all better understand what the Pukhtuns don't like about Punjabis, particularly about the Shariffs who they voted against, not for, by voting for either the PPP or the ANP in the Presidential and Parliamentary national and provincial elections in 2008 in Pakistan.

Cheers,
George

[davidbfpo]

This long article appeared in The (UK) Daily Telegraph, the author is a former BBC journalist and now works for Al-Jazeera, who spent five weeks in Pakistan and the programme has been shown already:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html

The programmes are online: http://english.aljazeera.net/program...123302404.html

Nothing startling, but of interest.

davidbfpo