Klein's Shock Doctrine

[Uboat509]

Ken,

With regard to your issue with the term "hearts and minds," LTC Kilcullen makes the point that "hearts and minds" does not mean getting them to like you but getting them to see that it is in their best interest to work with rather than against us. Viewed from that context, do you see value in the concept or am I playing with semantics. My experience with the ME has shown me that most there have a clearly defined sense of self-interest. Certainly, we must tap into that to have any sort success there. That is how I have always thought of that term and it has definitely affected how I dealt with the Iraqis I met on a daily basis. I never had any illusions about getting them to like me (but then I am a cynic anyway).

SFC W

[Ken White]

Ken,

With regard to your issue with the term "hearts and minds," LTC Kilcullen makes the point that "hearts and minds" does not mean getting them to like you but getting them to see that it is in their best interest to work with rather than against us. Viewed from that context, do you see value in the concept or am I playing with semantics. My experience with the ME has shown me that most there have a clearly defined sense of self-interest. Certainly, we must tap into that to have any sort success there. That is how I have always thought of that term and it has definitely affected how I dealt with the Iraqis I met on a daily basis. I never had any illusions about getting them to like me (but then I am a cynic anyway).

SFC W

who see or hear it -- unless they have some experience as you do and realize that you can get host nation folks to act in their own interests but they aren't ever going to like you in the fullest sense of the word.

Most civilians who see the term promoted by those are responsible for COIN or involved in the effort in some way assume the intent is to "win them over to our side and love us." Intuitively they know somethings not quite right about that. Those opposed to the effort will use every violent act to say "You aren't going to win hearts and minds that way..."

I can go with 'win their minds' -- it's the "heart" bit that muddies the water. I think "...active or tacit support..." is a better if sorta stuffy term. Regardless, H&M is a part of the vocabulary now; we're stuck with it.

Agree with you on the ME; when all is said and done, they are very pragmatic and perhaps more so than the nominally less emotional westerner. They will always dislike the ferenghi as a group but may take to individual westerners and will almost always support the apparent winner and someone who treats them fairly and respectfully particularly if they see an advantage to the tribe, family or themselves.

As a fellow cynic, maybe the "hearts" bit is annoying because it's unlikely to happen most everywhere when lives are being severely disrupted. I sure wouldn't be a happy camper if it was me but I'd tolerate 'visitors' if the potential future was better than the past...

[Surferbeetle]

The IMF, in the 2009 World Economic Outlook, provides the following record of % changes in Iraq's GDP (page 195 of the pdf report):

2005 (-0.7%), 2006 (+6.2%), 2007 (+1.5%), 2008 (+9.8%)

The Economist/Economic Intelligence Unit provides the following Country Briefing forecast for 2009:

# We have lowered our forecasts for Iraq's fiscal deficit, after raising our oil price projections. Nevertheless, we still expect the budget to return an average deficit of US$15.6bn in 2009-10.
# Real GDP growth in 2009-10 is forecast to slow, from an estimated rate of 7.8% in 2008 to an average of 5.7%, as a tighter fiscal stance has a knock-on impact across the economy.
# Iraq's current-account deficit forecast has narrowed slightly, owing to the revision to our oil price projections. We now expect that the current account will return a deficit of US$9bn in 2009, narrowing to US$6.4bn in 2010.

The Iraqi Stock Exchange Website provides some March 2009 data:

ISX at 183.9 points on 31 March 2009