Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
Crowbat,

Are the cited 'brigades', whether mountain, air defence or mechanised really brigades as the West and others would recognise? Or is the term really inflated to describe a weak battallion?
Average YA brigade is much smaller than anything comparable in the West, of course. Some would be designated 'regiments', few only 'battalions', almost anywhere else.

But about 20 'crack' units, and all of air defence brigades (all of the latter are nominally under the YAF control) used to have full strenght and full complement of weapons (even if not all of these were operational, see most of SA-2s). Indeed, some could have been described as 'reinforced', then they were not only operating the usual complement of 3-4 SAM-battalions (each battalion = one SAM-site), but more of these.

Few of Army units have been overrun and de-facto disarmed by Houthis in recent month and some observers expected them to completely disappear. For example, the 310th Armoured Brigade surrendered to Houthis in Amran, in July 2014, and its CO (Brig Gen Hamid al-Qushaybi) was killed. But, this did not happen: this brigade was reorganized and is still active in Amran area (indeed, it's one of major targets for Saudi-led coalition).

What makes YA's brigades so important is that each is a sort of local centre of political power. Most are are under command of at least a Brig Gen, and officers in question are exercising significant influence upon civilian life in surrounding areas. Their major bases have large stockpiles of ammo, fuel, supplies and - critically important issue - water: this is not only enabling them to survive even longer sieges (some of experiences from recent years have shown that even smaller YA brigades can easily survive up to 4-5 months-long sieges by the AQAP), but is important because otherwise there's so little water in Yemen. Keep in mind: not a single party there lacks arms or ammo (a reason more to belitle all the Saudi, US and Israeli reports about supposed Iranian arms deliveries), but everybody lacks water, and civilians lack fuel too.

Anyway, the point I actually want to make in regards of Yemeni brigades (whether those of the Army or the two of the Navy): because of their importance for civilian life, local media is quite straight in regards of reporting about them, making it relatively easy to establish a very precise ORBAT and follow related developments. Although it's sometimes unknown (to me) how are some of them equipped, their numbers are known, their bases and commanders too.

And now look at these figures:
- 44 brigades of the YA and YAF, and 2 of the YN have sided with Houthis meanwhile, and that figure is solid
- only 4 are confirmed to have sided with 'legitimacy' (i.e. Hadi), no matter what are Saudis babbling
- elements from 3 brigades appear to have sided with separatists (who are cooperating with Hadi, i.e. Saudis, but for their own reasons)
- 3 brigades were overun by AQAP
- status of about 30 other brigades remains unknown (nearly a third of these belong to the YAF, where it seems that most of units operating jet fighters didn't side with Houthis, but most of air-defence- and units equipped with helicopters and transport aircraft did).

This means: Saudis can babble and demand whatever they like about Hadi's 'legitimacy'. Fact on the ground is that more than 50% of the military has sided with Houthis. Fact is that it is this force that is represented in far huger numbers than Houthis (who might have perhaps five battalions of 'regulars'; rest of them are 'local militias'). Fact is that this is presently the strongest 'block' of power in Yemen. Fact is that this block is including not only Zaidis: about a dozen of units are almost exclusivelly manned by Shafis (Yemeni Sunnis). And, fact is that support of these 46 brigades for Houthis is not only 'nominal', yet 'passive' (like that of at least two brigades that sided with Hadi), but 'active': they are out on the battlefield, leading advances into southern Yemen, activelly engaging Hadi-loyalists, separatists, AQAP and the Daesh, or have joined the Houthis in deployments along the Saudi border.

And this means that demands (indeed: ultimatums) of the Saudi-led coalition are hopelessly unrealistic.

Even if Houthis would agree to disarm and withdraw into the Sa'ada province right now, as demanded by 'king' Salman, there would still be 46 brigades of the Yemeni military out there on the battlefields of this war, plus a large number of local/tribal militias supporting them. They're just too many but to simply 'evaporate'.