Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

**davidbfpo** · 06-20-2012

As SWC readers will know we have watched and commented upon the twists and turns of Pakistani decision-making for a long time; not once has Pakistan been likened to Egypt.

Shashank Joshi, from RUSI, has done this op-ed piece, which opens with:

The revolution has been cancelled. Everyone go home. It was all a big misunderstanding.

That is the message of Egypt’s military junta who, having hijacked their country’s political future, are turning it into a new Pakistan: a self-destructive and stagnating military dictatorship, limping along in sporadic democratic spurts. It is a squalid and tragic outcome for a country that should have been leading a political renaissance of the Arab world.

He ends with:

There is a warning here for outsiders, too. The United States bears some responsibility for feeding the military monster in Pakistan, over the years in which it preferred to funnel cash and weapons to the army in return for short-term co-operation.

Today, Washington should make a different choice in Egypt. It should tell the generals that the billions of dollars of American aid they receive every year, and the cutting-edge tanks and jets, will be conditional on a swift, meaningful and irreversible handover to elected civilians. That won’t fix everything, but it might buy time for a political process to take hold. The junta will respond by threatening to tear up the peace treaty with Israel, but this bluff has grown old. It should be ignored.

Ultimately, it is for Egyptians to decide whether they take to the streets once more, and risk further and perhaps futile bloodshed, or accommodate to military tutelage

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html

The hopes of an 'Arab Spring' leading to a better future for the people living there have dulled, in other places are being extinguished and largely for reasons of state have the West has looked away.

For a more detailed examination of the scene in Egypt try:http://www.opendemocracy.net/andrea-...ion-to-nowhere

I noted the point that the generals are the "old guard", anxious to retain their power and wealth. So much so they could actually unite the opposition around democracy, human rights and ejecting the generals - or more fitting "back to barracks".

**ganulv** · 06-20-2012

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

The hopes of an 'Arab Spring' leading to a better future for the people living there have dulled, in other places are being extinguished and largely for reasons of state have the West has looked away.

The prologue to an edition of This American Life from last spring is apropos.

**tequila** · 06-20-2012

The military appears to be betting that it can pull a Pakistan and essentially strip all meaningful power away from the presidency and the legislature.

In return, the Brotherhood has returned to Tahrir. One wonders if the people will be behind them, and for how long. But then again, who would have bet on the people getting this far?

The Obama Administration appears to be willing to let SCAF gut what remains of Egypt's revolution. I suppose the experience of Pakistan hasn't taught them much - or perhaps they simply want to avoid a major Middle East crisis ahead of elections? I don't think events are going to wait for them, though.

**Dayuhan** · 06-20-2012

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

The hopes of an 'Arab Spring' leading to a better future for the people living there have dulled, in other places are being extinguished and largely for reasons of state have the West has looked away.

The initial "Arab Spring" was never going to be more than the first act of a long-running drama. It may yet have kicked off movement toward a better future, but it's going to take some time and some mess to get there. It was never likely that there was going to be a direct transition from dictatorship to the elusive better future.

The West may well be looking away, but I'm not convinced that's a bad thing. Not much the West can or should do to influence the events playing out; it's something Egyptians need to work out for themselves.

Trying to force the Brothers out of power is IMO a bad idea, safer to have Islamists or Communists in Parliament than out on the streets, but MO means exactly nothing...

**tequila** · 06-20-2012

The West may well be looking away, but I'm not convinced that's a bad thing. Not much the West can or should do to influence the events playing out; it's something Egyptians need to work out for themselves.

The West (well, the US) is not going to be able to avert its eyes and be seen as neutral - not when we subsidize the Egyptian military to the tune of $2 billion per year.

The fate of that $2 billion should be in question now, IMO.

**Dayuhan** · 06-21-2012

Originally Posted by tequila

The fate of that $2 billion should be in question now, IMO.

Completely agree, but don't think for a minute that the generals will hand over power just because we move our money elsewhere, even if we do. First they'll take the line that we need them to contain Islamic extremism. If that doesn't work, they'll make their money elsewhere. Not that hard to do when you're running a country.

The US pays Egypt to not fight Israel, not to move toward democracy. We may choose to renegotiate that deal, but the other party has choices too.

**ganulv** · 06-21-2012

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

[T]hey'll take the line that we need them to contain Islamic extremism.

Excellent job they’ve done on that score thus far.

**davidbfpo** · 06-21-2012

Londonstani who has experience of both Egypt and Pakistan comments:

..the main difference between Pakistan and Egypt right now is that Egyptians have found a public voice and a confidence to say what it is they expect from their leaders. And, this new-found expression is being tentatively exercised on a daily basis. Pakistanis, on the other hand, have little faith in the political system or their collective ability to change things for the better through the systems that presently exist. Despite talk of the lawyers marches a few years ago, in Pakistan there really is no such thing as "popular" dissent. Public protest in Pakistan only reaches significant levels when it is backed by an established political force.

In Egypt, political actors have learnt to fear "the people". In Pakistan they fear particular political parties, the military, families that run madrassa networks or media bosses.

Link:http://www.londonstani.com/blog/2012...ni-future.html

He also points to Juan Cole's commentary:http://www.juancole.com/2012/06/egyp...ent-junta.html

One passage as a taster:

What the Egyptian officer corps seems not to know is that the legitimacy and authority deriving from the ballot box will over time trump the military, no matter how positive people’s feeling are toward the officers.

**tequila** · 06-21-2012

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

Completely agree, but don't think for a minute that the generals will hand over power just because we move our money elsewhere, even if we do. First they'll take the line that we need them to contain Islamic extremism. If that doesn't work, they'll make their money elsewhere. Not that hard to do when you're running a country.

The US pays Egypt to not fight Israel, not to move toward democracy. We may choose to renegotiate that deal, but the other party has choices too.

Oh, I agree that the Egyptian military will not relent - I do not see any reason why we need to subsidize them while they crush the democracy movement, however. The money has many better purposes and makes the U.S. look terrible for paying it.

I see no reason why we should subsidize an Israeli-Egyptian peace any longer, either. The generals will not fight Israel because it is in their best interests to maintain the cold peace, not because we pay them.

**Dayuhan** · 06-21-2012

Originally Posted by tequila

Oh, I agree that the Egyptian military will not relent - I do not see any reason why we need to subsidize them while they crush the democracy movement, however. The money has many better purposes and makes the U.S. look terrible for paying it.

I see no reason why we should subsidize an Israeli-Egyptian peace any longer, either. The generals will not fight Israel because it is in their best interests to maintain the cold peace, not because we pay them.

Agree on all counts, and IMO both the aid to Egypt and the annual $3 billion+ FMF to Israel should well have been moved elsewhere a long time ago (though of course the FMF to Israel is as much aid to the US defense industry as it is aid to Israel).

It will be interesting to see how the US approaches the issue. There will be those who proclaim that we have to support the generals because they are the only ones keeping the Islamists out of power. My guess is that supporting the generals is the best way to bring a really radical Islamist presence into absolute power, but we shall see...