I agree that one-party rule in China isn't going away any time soon. Singapore is a likely model, but probably what we'll see is a mix of Singapore, Malaysia, S. Korea, Japan and, ironically, Taiwan.

China is less opaque than we think. It's driven by a desire to increase national wealth (including standard of living) and prestige while maintaining stability. It's doesn't take years of study to figure this out, they've been saying it since Deng Xiaoping took power and still. say it all the time

If you're interested in a theory about political change in China that isn't the "China Will be a World-Dominating Superpower," or "China is our Friend and Just Wants to be Like the United States," check out Suisheng Zhao's, "A Nation-State by Construction: Dynamics of Modern Chinese Nationalism," or any of his stuff on Chinese nationalism. He takes the view that China is, and has been since the late 19th c., driven more by nationalism than any other ideology.