Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
I don't think we have a pressing, vital national interest in Libya per se; but we do have a pressing, vital national interest or two across the greater Middle East, ...
Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iraq and Kuwait are amongst the top 15 crude oil suppliers of the U.S..
"...the top ten sources accounted for approximately 88 percent of all U.S. crude oil imports..."
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/p...nt/import.html


Let's assume that none of them would be willing to sell oil to the U.S. if the U.S. stopped seeing vital interests in the Middle East (the opposite is a more likely reaction, but that's another story).
That would mean a loss of supply of about 800 million barrel/year.

Now assume that the U.S. would need to buy these 800 million barrels/year at outrageous doubled price then for a few years, until the world market is re-arranged (the four countries keep selling, just not to the U.S.).

The average market price for WTI crude oil in 2010 was somewhere near USD 80/barrel.

So we're discussing national interests in a trade volume of only 800 million * USD 80; USD 64 bn.
64 billion $$$. That's how much? 6-10% of U.S. military spending?
How much U.S. military spending is being 'justified' with Middle East meddling?


I don't see any major U.S. interests in the MidEast region that justify the great expenses people have become accustomed to. There are primarily special interests, the tails that wag the dog.


Germany is importing a 7% of its crude oil supply from Libya and we're mcuh more close to Libya than the U.S..
I still consider German national interests in Libya to be smallish. Our primary interest is the security of the EU's southern frontier, and Libya is no troublemaker in this regard. The oil import issue can be resolved with a slight deviation from business as usual.