In Iraqi South, Shiites press for autonomy

[Rex Brynen]

Basically, I don't think the Hakims are going to press the issue here -- they risk angering Sistani, and he is a huge wild card in any political calculation. I also think that SIIC generally doesn't want to risk pitting the Badr Organization against JAM if they can avoid it, and there's no way Sadr would go down on this issue without a fight. (I understand that gov't vs. JAM often is really just Badr vs. JAM in disguise, but I'm talking about all-out open street warfare, rather than the pin-pricks they're giving each other now.)

Agreed. Moreover, the Iranians don't want their allies fighting each other either, and can be expected to use money and influence to try to prevent any Sadr/SIIC fissures from growing too great.

[Rex Brynen]

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW REPORT

Shiite Politics in Iraq: The Role of the Supreme Council

Baghdad/Istanbul/Brussels, 15 November 2007: The U.S. should take advantage of its privileged ties with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) to moderate the party’s behaviour and curb its sectarian practices rather than use it as an instrument to confront the Sadrists.

Shiite Politics in Iraq: The Role of the Supreme Council,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, outlines how the competition between its major Shiite movements – ISCI and Muqtada Sadr’s Mahdi army – will help determine the country’s future. A protracted power struggle between the two is likely, marked perhaps by temporary alliances. The U.S. has fully backed ISCI in its rivalry with the Mahdi army, but this is a dangerous policy that will further deepen intra-Shiite divisions and ignores the Sadrists’ stronger mass base.

“The class struggle between the Shiite merchant elite represented by ISCI and the Shiite urban underclass represented by the Sadrists is more likely to shape Iraq’s future than the sectarian conflict”, says Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Group’s Deputy Middle East Program Director.

ISCI’s dual alliance with the U.S. and Iran has limited its support among Iraqis. The movement has sought to gain respectability by distancing itself from its Tehran patron and professing the importance of Iraqi unity but so far has not managed to shake off its past as an Iran-bred group of exiles with a sectarian agenda enforced by a potent militia. As long as the U.S. remains in Iraq, however, its alliance will help entrench the movement in the country’s governing, security and intelligence institutions. Its only true challenger remains the Mahdi army, which enjoys broad support among Shiite masses.

In order to make a significant contribution to the country’s rebuilding, ISCI should project itself further as a truly Iraqi party that supports the country’s unity in both its public positions and actual policy, abandoning its advocacy of a nine-governorate Shiite super region, which has provoked wide opposition. The movement should urge its representatives to forsake sectarian rhetoric and remove commanders who have engaged in illegal detentions, torture and death-squad activity. It should also support total transparency in hiring practices by government institutions. The U.S. should adopt a more even-handed approach between the two Shiite movements, while pressing ISCI to reform and abandon its sectarian policies.

“The U.S. can help ISCI move away from its controversial past”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East Program Director. “An ISCI fully transformed into a responsible, non-sectarian political party could make a significant contribution to Iraq’s rebuilding”.

[kehenry1]

Waiting for the Shi'ite Civil War - Charles Crane

But with sectarian violence waning for the time being, the stage may be set for an escalation of the simmering battle among Shi'ites for control of southern Iraq. In Najaf, the spiritual center of Shi'ite Iraq, public displays of respect and cooperation mask an often violent competition between rival factions. Since shortly after the American invasion The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) - known until May 2007 as the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI - has clashed, often violently, with followers of the Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. This summer Sadr announced a "freeze" in the activities of his Mahdi Army militia and the two sides have reached an uneasy truce. But residents in Najaf say the rivalry has simply gone underground. "The relationship between the two sides in the media is the opposite of reality," says a history professor who teaches near Najaf (concerned for his safety, he asked that his full name not be used). "Their relationship on the streets is [very] tense, and can reach the level of an explosion."

[ali_ababa]

Agreed. Moreover, the Iranians don't want their allies fighting each other either, and can be expected to use money and influence to try to prevent any Sadr/SIIC fissures from growing too great.

To be honest with you Iran cannot provide more money to Sadr/SIIC that Iraq does not already have.

Iran's influence is dwindling thanks to the improvement of the ISF and the increased help from the Coalition forces in patrolling the borders with Iran.

With Iran's tensions rising with the West - i doubt that Iraq will want to get involved with them as we have had enough of wars and sanctions (1980-present)

However there are freaks in Iraq who are more loyal to Iran than Iraq. Hopefully they will disappear.