Firstly, the fears that Trump would cut off support for the FSA (the CIA’s Operation Timber Sycamore) and give Russia a freer hand in Syria have not materialized. Russian intervention has continued at the same level as during the Obama Administration, and certainly Trump is much more willing to confront Iran and its auxiliaries than his predecessor. Even were the CIA to withdraw support for the FSA, the lack of involvement and oversight may then permit unfettered support from Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Secondly, Trump has attacked Assad for using Sarin and this week attacked a pro-Assad convoy to protect a FSA unit. No such U.S. activity against pro-Assad forces occurred from 2011 through 2016. Thus far, Trump’s election is a net benefit to the FSA when compared to Obama’s tenure. It is no doubt less than ideal for the FSA, but it is a major improvement.
Thirdly, Trump inherited U.S. cooperation with the PKK from his predecessor. As Aaron Stein at the Atlantic Council recently noted:
Overall, we are witnessing the same policies with some positive incremental changes. I say incremental because I did not find the punitive strike in response to the Sarin attack to be a major deviation. Had Assad used Sarin in 2016 or with a Clinton Administration, he would have probably been punished in a similar fashion.This [Turkish] plan was never feasible. The Turkish feeder program has not generated enough forces to take Raqqa, while Ankara’s proposed contribution was viewed with skepticism inside the coalition.
In reality, the Trump administration had the option to siege and take Raqqa with more U.S. conventional forces, or to undertake a much broader effort to train and equip a rival force from Syrian Arabs. Either of these two options could have helped to address Turkish concerns.
However, it would have slowed the campaign against the Islamic State and would have gone against the advice of the commanders on the ground. The slowing of the campaign would also contradict Trump’s own campaign pledge to speed up the war against ISIS. Therefore, the outcome was all but predetermined, with the SDF serving as the only capable ground force currently ready to fight ISIL in an urban environment. All that was needed was to grant the authorities to arm the YPG.
There will never be a "war to end all wars". Using the PKK as a tool to defeat Daesh as a conventional force will not end the Sunni Arab insurgency, and will likely inflame Kurdish conflicts with Turkey, Iran and Syria. Whether Syria continues to be under minority Alawi rule or whether it comes under majority Sunni Arab rule, the Syrian government and the breakaway region of Rojava will come to blows. Whereas no-fly, no-drive and Turkish approval created a de facto independent Kurdish statelet in northern Iraq, a repetition will not be possible in northern Syria.
Azor you still do not get it....
1. US air strike was not to protect FSA but to protect SF units the 5th and UK SAS...
2. Verified by FSA themselves with their comments that they had been ordered to move out of the crossing point....still not confirmed though
3. That TLAM was for nothing but show and that was it...had no impact on any of the ME players did not impress Iran nor did this air strike impress them
Both TLAM and air strikes served to provide Russia and Iran just more propaganda....
4. Trump could have broken with Obama but did not as he has absolutely no plan on how to defeat IS.
REMEMBER it was Trump himself that stated he would have within 60 days a "plan to defeat IS"..we are way pass 100 days and have you seen this "plan"....MIA......
5. By fully titling to the PKK Trump has ensured a decade of more fighting between Turkey and PKK
So all on all..what I have constantly bashed Obama for on his failed strategy because anything the FSA did that placed his Iran Deal in trouble he deflected back onto the Syrians...NOW we can continue to bash Trump FOR CONTINUING what basically was a pro Iranian strategy.....
That should have been apparent from the two postings here from former Obama types....BUT you seemed to miss those postings..
The Iran Deal was everything...and the Syrians were collateral damage...
Azor...remember that Steel Dossier that you bashed me about....and now is it in fact impacting anything the US is doing as a FP????
The New York Times
Verifizierter Account
#
@nytimes
What President Trump told Russian officials about firing James Comey
http://nyti.ms/2pTMns7#
"I just fired the head of the FBI. He was crazy, a real nut job. I faced great pressure because of Russia. That's taken off."
President Trump 10 May 2017 Oval Office
Russian collusion...criminal investigation and now WH coverup.....
The Washington Post reported Friday afternoon that federal investigators were looking at a senior White House official as a “significant person of interest.” The article did not identify the official, though it noted that the person was “someone close to the president.”
A person of interest is someone law enforcement identifies as relevant to an investigation but who has not been charged or arrested.
And The New York Times reported that Trump had told visiting Russian officials in the Oval Office that firing Comey had taken pressure off the Russia probe.
The Independent
Verifizierter Account
#
@Independent
Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner 'person of interest in Russia investigation'
http://ind.pn/2qGulqu
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-20-2017 at 06:37 AM.
RE:
1-2. Regardless, Obama was loath to use force against Assad even to protect U.S. personnel, for fear of the optics. The fact that the U.S. is now unconcerned with the optics of appearing to provide CAS for the rebels (or “terrorists” according to Damascus and Moscow) indicates a major change of policy.
3. Thus far, there have been no reports of any chemical weapons use by Assad since the airstrike on Shayrat Airbase, let alone of Sarin.
4. Trump was never going to radically break from Obama’s handling of Daesh. The fact is that Obama’s approach was the most cost-effective, and fit with his overall CT strategy of containment and attrition. Any radical departure would either be prohibitively expensive in blood, treasure and political capital, or would allow for a resurgence of Daesh. Neither Trump nor the Republicans are especially fond of the JCPOA. Whereas Obama was prepared to give Iran a free hand in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and to tolerate Iranian provocations such as the capture and parading of U.S. soldiers, Trump does not appear to have those inclinations. Any approach that does not involve direct conflict with Iran can be regarded as “pro-Iranian”, given that country’s aggression.
Syrians were not “collateral damage” for the JCPOA. The fact is that humanitarian grounds aside, the U.S. had no compelling interest to intervene in Syria. Rather than the JCPOA, I would suggest that probably there was a gentleman’s agreement between Washington, Moscow and Damascus, that Obama would not intervene in Syria as long as Assad surrendered his chemical weapons. It was difficult to punish Assad in 2013, when Washington wanted him to both refrain from using chemical weapons and to keep those weapons secure.
5. The tilt to the PKK was done by the previous administration. For the reasons that Aaron Stein provided above, it is a sound policy if the objective is solely the defeat of Daesh as a statelet and conventional force, and as quickly as possible. As for any unfinished business or loose ends, these were also present in 1865, 1918, 1945, 1953 and 1991, to say nothing of later marches to folly. Arguably, the Vietnam War's end has produced the least fallout of any major American war, despite the loss.
FSA Unified Military Council for Deir EzZor coordinating w/ supporting countries prepare for big battle #DeirEzZor:
http://eldorar.com/node/111650
Turkish ambo to US, Serdar Kılıç, rips US policy in Syria for backing YPG for battle of Raqqa. No way to treat a 65-year ally, he said
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-22-2017 at 06:33 PM.
Daraa: Rebels have confirmed killed 11 #Assad forces in #Daraa City today, most of them Alawites from #Tartous and #Latakia.
AFTER the Trump tilt in KSA to "contain" Iran...appears it was all just words...just as was the Trump TLAM attack...all intentions and that was about it....
Over the past 24 hours, #Iranian-led forces captured 100 more square kilometres of Syrian-opposition-held land in #RifDimashq.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-23-2017 at 07:59 AM.
It's very simple, actually: the 'terrorists' in question are forbidden from fighting Damascus and Moscow. They are fighting Daesh all the time.
Now, feel free to make up your mind...
16 Years since 9/11, 16 years of war in Afghanistan, 16 years of war in Yemen, 14 years of war in Iraq, ... and there are still characters calling that 'cost-effective'...The fact is that Obama’s approach was the most cost-effective...
...oh, but sure: because people like you are insistent on ignoring Vietnamese and Cambodian opinions about this 'least fallout'...Arguably, the Vietnam War's end has produced the least fallout of any major American war, despite the loss.
Ah, I see that after having been driven into hiding in the Guenser Mountains some days ago, you have cleared your calendar for some harassing fire...
Shall I send in a Provincial Reconstruction Team or the NKVD? Decisions. Decisions...
About what, my good man?
I specifically referred to Obama's approach, not Bush's. If you have a more cost-effective plan than feel free to present it.
How do I ignore them? The U.S. intervention in Indochina only delayed the Communist takeover. The vast majority of U.S. and RVN kills were combatants; the same cannot be said for Ho and his fellow travelers. Perhaps there is an inverse relationship between attrition and duration of conflict?
Ayor.....I often point this out as the major "win" for the NVA in SVN....and yes the US was out of the fighting by 1971....
The following is of interest.....
Number of VC and NVA killed during the entire period 3.2M
Number of VC and NVA MIA for the entire period 1.2M
Figures come straight from Giap in a book he released after the war....
I personally read an intercepted handwritten COSVN Commanders letter to Giap....in a three month period in 1970 they had suffered alone 10,000 killed and missing.....BTW we captured that courier based on HUMINT...
Now if we look at say the US MIA and KIA ....is what roughly 60K????
So who in fact "won".....in the end?????
King Salman met Donald Trump on the tarmac. He didn't do the same for Obama last year.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/preside...ts-1495263979#
BTW...that 110B USDs arms deal could be viewed as "buying US actions against Iran" could it not????
Russia delivering oil/gas industry equipment to Syria:
Azor...so there was no "blowback" on the Trump massive security failure????
REPORT: Israeli intelligence officials were shouting at U.S. counterparts in meetings over Trump's SNAFU
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/19/...a-iran-syria/#
Syrian rebels begin to leave last opposition-held Homs district
http://reut.rs/2q3uV0e
S. #Syria: pro-Assad led by Druze fighters & SSNP took most E. #Suweida & #Jordan border from #FSA, entering #Dam. prov & heading to Al-Tanf
Syria: Pro-#Assad forces have captured #Zelaf area from #FSA and advancing along the #Jordan|ian border.
Also notice: @CJTFOIR did neither support the MOC #FSA in liberating the area from #ISIS nor did it help moderates when #Assad ran over them
For 2 years,#Assad gave a sh** about #ISIS,ruling the S-E of the country.
Just after the #FSA liberated those areas,the dictator stepped in.
AND the US does what again ....???? Nothing really.....
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-20-2017 at 12:09 PM.
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