Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

[TheCurmudgeon]

True enough, though if anything really interesting or suspect has been found out about any of the people, it has yet to be revealed... which is of course not surprising.


I just can't see how you'd get it to Pakistan, or any similar place. To fly it to Pakistan you'd have to cross India and/or China, and how do you do that without triggering some kind of alert? Given the combination of having to fly through heavily watched airspace, finding a place to land, refuel, and take off again undetected... it just doesn't come off as very probable, at least not without active complicity from one or more governments..

You would have to trace the route of a normal commercial airline. For all intents and purposes it would look like a normal commercial airline. Flown close enough to a plane already on that route, it could look like an echo.

Yes, there would be complicity from Pakistan (or elements in the Pakistani security services who are pissed about the murder of bin Laden), but I am not sure that is really a stretch.

[anotherguy]

Re: possibility of the pilot being homosexual. Somewhere earlier today I read that his wife and children moved out of their home the day before the flight disappeared, but as with everything surrounding this, hard facts seem tough to come by.

ETA: Wife and kids moving out mentioned here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...detection.html

Maybe he came out, they moved out and instead of going to prison he ended it in protest? Although, it's curious that it has been disclosed that they had moved out, but no explanation is given. Why the secrecy?

I have been catching up on this discussion in bits and pieces so forgive me if it has already been mentioned, but has anyone mentioned possibility of testing an exploit of whatever the exact vulnerability mentioned here is:

https://www.federalregister.gov/arti...ctronic-system

[wm]

Is air freight the best way to ship such a quantity of mangosteens? This seems rather odd. Smells more like smuggling than terror to me

Why should one take the last Malaysian military report so seriously? the heading could easily be exactly 180 degrees wrong, if it even was the right aircraft.

Simple answer for the lack of passenger contacts--they and the cabin crew all were killed--either gassed or died of anoxia when cabin was depressurized and no O2 flowed from masks.

My guess is that the first officer (maybe the captain was also involved) got paid off to deliver something somewhere that was loaded as mangosteens--gold or drugs, for example. Perhaps Malaysian radar post was also paid off. Once delivery was made the airplane was no longer needed.

I seem to remember that the western Sahara has been the site of many "lost" aircraft landings from drug smugglers flying over from South America.

[Dayuhan]

You would have to trace the route of a normal commercial airline. For all intents and purposes it would look like a normal commercial airline. Flown close enough to a plane already on that route, it could look like an echo.

I don't think it would be that simple. A radar contact without transponder data or contact with air traffic controllers is an anomaly and would trigger a response almost anywhere, even on a standard route: people do remember 9/11. Biggus would know more about it than I, but I don't think you could fly close enough to another plane to look like an echo without triggering some serious alarm and complaint from the pilots of the plane you were shadowing.

Yes, there would be complicity from Pakistan (or elements in the Pakistani security services who are pissed about the murder of bin Laden), but I am not sure that is really a stretch.

You'd still have to get it across India or China, and hide it. It's not the easiest thing to hide.

Re: possibility of the pilot being homosexual. Somewhere earlier today I read that his wife and children moved out of their home the day before the flight disappeared, but as with everything surrounding this, hard facts seem tough to come by.

ETA: Wife and kids moving out mentioned here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...detection.html

Maybe he came out, they moved out and instead of going to prison he ended it in protest?

London tabloids are notoriously unreliable sources.

The only reason anyone has suggested for believing that the pilot is gay was that someone somewhere extrapolated support for Anwar Ibrahim into "support for homosexuality", which of course we all know means you must be gay. If support for the PKR makes someone gay, there's a whole lot of gay people in KL.

Of course it's not impossible (few things are at this point), but there's also been no even marginally credible basis proposed for the theory.

Is air freight the best way to ship such a quantity of mangosteens? This seems rather odd. Smells more like smuggling than terror to me

It's the only way; they are perishable. This is very very common, there's high demand for tropical fruit in NE Asia, and flights from SE Asia to Japan, Korea, and northern China routinely carry large shipments of fruit.

My guess is that the first officer (maybe the captain was also involved) got paid off to deliver something somewhere that was loaded as mangosteens--gold or drugs, for example. Perhaps Malaysian radar post was also paid off. Once delivery was made the airplane was no longer needed.

Seems a very complicated way to smuggle something, and very risky as well.

[anotherguy]

London tabloids are notoriously unreliable sources.

Absolutely. That's not where I originally saw it. just can't find the original link and don't recall the source.

[Dayuhan]

A bit more on the pilot... doesn't exactly come off looking like a criminal mastermind or a nut case.

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloom...558.php#page-1

http://qz.com/188723/seven-things-we...net-footprint/

http://www.news.com.au/world/malaysi...-1226857201698

The tabloids are making a big deal of the fact that the pilots are being investigated, which seems natural and inevitable under the circumstances. If anything incriminating or suspicious has come up, it has not been released.

From WSJ:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...753452924.html

Capt. Zaharie's family left their home in a gated community--located about an hour's drive from Kuala Lumpur--on March 8 after news came in that Flight 370 had gone missing, according to one of the estate's security guards. However, asked at Sunday's news briefing if Capt. Zaharie's family had moved out of their home, Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu Bakar said that wasn't the case.

Mr. Fariq's family meanwhile has remained at home in another suburb, roughly 10 minutes' drive from Capt. Zaharie's home, but have shunned media attention, according to a neighbor.

"Left the home" can easily just mean they went to a relative's house, or any number of other things. it doesn't mean they moved out. Jumping from there to the supposition that the pilot was gay, based on noo evidence beyond his support for the PKR, seems pretty far off the page. Of course personal stress and the completely unpredictable action can never be discounted... but again, if there's anything even vaguely suspicious in the picture, it has not been made public.

[Biggus]

Well... as far as a dry run... wouldn't it be important for the plane to at least be found so that assessments could be made about how difficult it was to penetrate security, seize the aircraft, etc? If this was a dry run, the perpetrators would only know the external search and rescue response.

Unless they had independent comms equipment. Then they'd have feedback, the adequacy of which I can't really say - I haven't thought too hard about it.

Finally somebody gets it. You are absolutely correct!!!!! trying to use logic when dealing with criminals,terrorist,etc. is total foolishness. To try and use logic and reason on a criminal is just totally "rancid"

I disagree that logic an reason aren't relevant, particularly if someone is calculatedly stealing an aircraft and disappearing. It doesn't account for every single possibility, but it's a good place to start.

Wouldn't surprise me at all. This whole thing is about chasing ghosts, nobody seems to know anything for sure. That is why we should stick with the backrounds of all the people involved, the hardware answers just don't seem to be working out.

You sure about that? The hardware answers are incredibly compelling. We now know that the ACARS radio links were not disabled before last voice contact. We've got a radar track that shows the aircraft turning off to the best possible shot at a safe landing at Langkawi and a bunch of stuff that looks like shutting down systems in the cockpit to eliminate a fire, which they may have managed to do, but not before succumbing to asphyxia or hypoxia.

The hardware answers look far less like terrorism.

More news that makes things less clear.

This is what I was saying yesterday. ACARS radio links weren't disabled prior to last voice contact.

I don't think it would be that simple. A radar contact without transponder data or contact with air traffic controllers is an anomaly and would trigger a response almost anywhere, even on a standard route: people do remember 9/11. Biggus would know more about it than I, but I don't think you could fly close enough to another plane to look like an echo without triggering some serious alarm and complaint from the pilots of the plane you were shadowing.

Wouldn't happen. The transponder not only squawks a pre-designated code for the flight based upon the ATC's instruction, but it also has it's own embedded identification that can't be changed. If there's an aircraft on my primary radar without a transponder, I'm going to make contact one way or another. Normally, you'd expect voice and then either compliance or a declared emergency. If declared emergency, I'd be getting the ACARS data.

If we're talking about flying in close formation to hide your blip inside someone else's blip, that's marginally more likely than being abducted by aliens. It's physically possible to formate on another airliner-type airframe (ever seen a KC-135 refuelling an E-3?), but to hold it there for hours would be difficult, and primary radar would show an even bigger return. To use a crude analogy, the return that the radar operators would see wouldn't be like the normal Rosie O'Donnell sized blip, it'd look like Rosie O'Donnell carrying another Rosie O'Donnell on her shoulders. If I were Malaysia or Thailand, I might not be scrambling my interceptors, but if I were Vietnam, China, India and possibly even Pakistan, I'd be doing something about it.

[anotherguy]

Anyone know where the Sabalan and Kharg are currently in their trip to the US east coast?

[Biggus]

Anyone know where the Sabalan and Kharg are currently in their trip to the US east coast?

There's this report.

“An Australian AP-3C Orion encountered an Iranian frigate during a routine Operation Gateway patrol on 10 March 2013,” said a Defence Department spokesperson.

The Iranian Navy ships were reportedly heading home after a port visit to Zhangjiagang in China and were nearing Sri Lanka when they were intercepted by the Australian aircraft.

[anotherguy]

NYT is reporting that first turn that diverted the plane was made via entry into the computer system and not manually.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/wo...AA1F11&gwt=pay

[slapout9]

I disagree that logic an reason aren't relevant, particularly if someone is calculatedly stealing an aircraft and disappearing. It doesn't account for every single possibility, but it's a good place to start.

I understand that and it is perfectly OK to have that point of view especially with your extensive technical background.

You sure about that? The hardware answers are incredibly compelling. We now know that the ACARS radio links were not disabled before last voice contact. We've got a radar track that shows the aircraft turning off to the best possible shot at a safe landing at Langkawi and a bunch of stuff that looks like shutting down systems in the cockpit to eliminate a fire, which they may have managed to do, but not before succumbing to asphyxia or hypoxia.

The hardware answers look far less like terrorism.

I am not sure about any of this. I simply propose certain theories and then let people comment on them as far as their possible accuracy or inaccuracy.

[TheCurmudgeon]

This is what I was saying yesterday. ACARS radio links weren't disabled prior to last voice contact.

With that change, electrical/computer failures are back on the table.

I actually considered the possibility that the rapid climb (tied to an intentional depressurization) was an intentional attempt to starve the fire of oxygen - as unlikely as that would be. More likely that the radar data is flawed.

The hardware answers are incredibly compelling. We now know that the ACARS radio links were not disabled before last voice contact. We've got a radar track that shows the aircraft turning off to the best possible shot at a safe landing at Langkawi and a bunch of stuff that looks like shutting down systems in the cockpit to eliminate a fire, which they may have managed to do, but not before succumbing to asphyxia or hypoxia.

The hardware answers look far less like terrorism.

Lets say that there was a fire,

1) why no Mayday? Aren't there backup comms systems? Aren't there automatic systems that would communicate a fire on board?

2) why the continued course changes? I suppose the system could have continued to degrade, but it seems odd (assuming there is any credibility to the radar information, a dangerous assumption based on recent events).

[Stan]

I seem to remember that the western Sahara has been the site of many "lost" aircraft landings from drug smugglers flying over from South America.

Yo Dude, long time no see (or hear) ! How goes the war ?

Ain't that the truth. How many air frames vegetate in Africa, either sold or cannibalized.

Given that scenario however would require a few in flight refueling (or one hell of a tail wind)

[former_0302]

Interesting take on the situation from a pilot:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03...ectrical-fire/

[TheCurmudgeon]

Assuming the fire scenario, and the pilot/copilot had enough time to turn the plane, would they not also place the plane on a glide path to the airport, or does that require too much additional data entry?

[slapout9]

Wouldn't the pilot call out some type of mayday call signal to alert the airport of an emergancy landing?

[wm]

Yo Dude, long time no see (or hear) ! How goes the war ?

Ain't that the truth. How many air frames vegetate in Africa, either sold or cannibalized.

Given that scenario however would require a few in flight refueling (or one hell of a tail wind)

Depends on what is being smuggled and how far it needed to move. Might have been on the plane when it left Kuala Lumpur.

[omarali50]

This plane is now in the twilight zone and we will probably never have near-consensus on what happened, but I was thinking: all this speculation must have given several people some very interesting new ideas...

[Biggus]

Lets say that there was a fire,

1) why no Mayday? Aren't there backup comms systems? Aren't there automatic systems that would communicate a fire on board?

2) why the continued course changes? I suppose the system could have continued to degrade, but it seems odd (assuming there is any credibility to the radar information, a dangerous assumption based on recent events).

Priorities in order of importance are to aviate, navigate and then communicate. From the perspective of the crew, an electrical fire is going to result in immediately depowering large chunks of avionics and comms equipment and then powering one thing at a time back up until the relevant system is found. The system you'd expect to automatically report a fire to the outside world is ACARS, and we know that didn't work for whatever reason.

No mayday could be easily chalked up to either being overtaken by events in fighting the fire or the fire knocking the radio comms out. There are a number of different radios onboard, but the breakers would be pulled at the same time.

Course changes beyond the radar tracking are likely to be the aircraft following the active plan in the FMS, whatever that might have been. Like I hypothesised earlier, getting off the airway while troubleshooting items that include the transponder would be a key priority. Punch in a few nearby waypoints that sound reasonably acceptable (and under increasingly hypoxic conditions, strange things can sound reasonably acceptable) and begin dealing with the fire/decompression/whatever.

Or the radar tracking is disinformation or a cover to explain how the aircraft got to it's present position without compromising someone's capability.

Assuming the fire scenario, and the pilot/copilot had enough time to turn the plane, would they not also place the plane on a glide path to the airport, or does that require too much additional data entry?

From their last tracked position, going back to KL would mean clearing some obstructions on approach. Langkawi was the nearest reasonably safe approach available at the time, from what I understand. That's the direction the aircraft was initially heading.

Wouldn't the pilot call out some type of mayday call signal to alert the airport of an emergancy landing?

As I've said above, communication is third priority in line after getting a handle on aviation and navigation. If ACARS VHF and HF datalinks are out, voice comms are probably out too, but that shouldn't matter too much, because there are lost comms procedures. How these lost comms procedures work with loss of transponder, I don't really know.

I think it's extremely important to point out that this scenario is basically a one-in-a-million perfect storm, if this is what has happened.

This plane is now in the twilight zone and we will probably never have near-consensus on what happened, but I was thinking: all this speculation must have given several people some very interesting new ideas...

Probably true.


Something else that I've found interesting today is the relationship between Malaysia and Thailand, sharing radar data 10 days after the disappearance.

I'm also learning that a number of SAR aircraft are currently sitting on the ground awaiting overflight clearance from neighbouring countries.

[jmm99]

Answer in first paragraph of Airplane Hijacking - Wiki:

Aircraft hijacking (also known as aircraft piracy, especially within the special aircraft jurisdiction of the United States, and informally as skyjacking) is the unlawful seizure of an aircraft by an individual or a group. In most cases, the pilot is forced to fly according to the orders of the hijackers. Occasionally, however, the hijackers have flown the aircraft themselves, such as the September 11 attacks of 2001. In at least three cases, the plane was hijacked by the official pilot or co-pilot.[1][2][3][4]

1. China Airlines Flight 334

2. "Air China pilot hijacks his own jet to Taiwan". CNN. 1998-10-28. Archived from the original on 2008-03-21. Retrieved 2007-01-25.

3. B. Raman (2000-01-02). "PLANE HIJACKING: IN PERSPECTIVE". South Asia Analysis Group. Retrieved 2007-01-25.

4. Ethiopian Airlines ET702 hijacking

Legalisms are in footnote 3.

Regards

Mike