This is probably the greatest problem, though I think it's largely been addressed through a number of selective service reforms undertaken since 1973 to reduce exemptions and deferments. Of course, there will always be people who will seek to avoid their obligations; if someone is intent on breaking the law, the law won't stop them from doing so. The question is to what extent could this occur in the future, would it be nationally significant (as apart from politically significant for public service "careers"), and what factors could mitigate it.Originally Posted by Entropy
Then again, the drafts in WW1 and WW2, for example, opened up the workforce to minorities and women. As of the end of 2011, the unemployment rate for young adults (18 - 24) was 16.7%. With 4 million new young adults each year, labor is only becoming more competitive and will continue to drive down wages (in the absence of a minimum wage increase). Removing those 4 million young adults from the labor force anywhere from 2 - 24 months would (1) increase demand for labor and therefore increase wages and (2) provide surplus labor an outlet to input value into the economy. After all, it can't be assumed that we'll poor in 4 million new soldiers into a conflict every year, and they will use their labor and wages for other purposes. (If the current military demographic is any indication, it will be on beer, fishing, Nascar, and strip clubs).
My bad.Originally Posted by Entropy
It's relevant to the extent that there is no correlation between maintaining an all-volunteer force and the general welfare or security of the country. After WW2, when millions of young men were demobilized and sent home (85% of whom were draftees), they didn't just provide a baby boom. They were also provided financial and educational benefits that lead to the post-war economic boom, in turn financing today's infrastructure projects and social programs (including the origins of the internet). In totality, this led to higher education rates and performance, higher employment rates with higher quality jobs, higher wages across the entire class spectrum, more effective tax code, and faster technological development. Not to mention the impetus for integration of minorities and women in politics, the economy, and society (and even the school lunch program) as a result of the war's demands and continued requirements of national security.Originally Posted by Entropy
In fact, it's generally established that maintaining an all-volunteer force has the opposite effect. Every dollar spent on defense is a net drain on the economy, with the opportunity cost being the higher returns in economic activity and job growth that could have been gained by investing in education, infrastructure, health, or technology. The military "culture" is increasingly a southern-Christian-conservative culture with a fantasy "warrior culture" at odds with most demographics of American society (with the exception of the southern-Christian-conservatives that enlist in large numbers). Now, today's SWJ blogpost did posit the interesting idea of tying counter-insurgency projects to development projects here at home, which may in some way mitigate the high cost/low output (read: inefficiency) problem of the AVF.
I'm not avoiding any fact. Duh, the corollary to 8.5% is 91.5%. So what? How does that make the service of 168,000 men insignificant? How is 8.5% a statistically insignificant number? The obvious fact is that despite the general mythos captured in the New York Draft Riot, almost a tenth of all soldiers in the Union Army were draftees.Originally Posted by Steve Blair
Actually, I think it more has to do with poor strategic leadership, gross budgetary waste and inefficiency coupled with no accountability, and a cultural obsession with high speed, low drag next-generation equipment instead of manpower. The quality of the soldier does not change with how he was recruited (or are the 85% of drafted WW2 veterans not a part of the Greatest Generation?) but instead with leadership and policy. I never argued the AVF to be inept... it's simply just not as effective as our most recent use of a conscripted force.Originally Posted by Steve Blair
No -- it's unsustainable because of the defense death spiral which can only be profitable at the expense of long-term military readiness. Of the top 20 countries by active-duty end-strength, 13 have more soldiers per 1000 capita than the US. None of those, excluding the US, are in the top 20 of economies by GDP and none of them exceed the US in defense expenditures per capita either. So that tells me that while the US has much higher capacity to maintain a professional military force, the excess 'space' created by a larger economy is being consumed by inefficiencies in the defense budget. Treasure is the sinews of war, and we're not spending ours effectively. That is why the all-volunteer force is unsustainable.Originally Posted by Steve Blair
How does this compare to the fact that war has now become an exclusively middle class burden, both in service and in financing?Originally Posted by Steve Blair
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