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Old 01-17-2017   #1
CrowBat
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Default Egypt 2017 onwards (incl. Sinai)

Hope you don't mind me undusting this old thread... (Mod adds, no problem and new thread created. See Post No.2).

Namely, if my sources in Egypt are right, there are some hot news:

- economy is in worst situation since years, although military commercial venues have virtually taken over the entire economy; the private sector is simply squeezed out because it can't compete (Egyptian military is meanwhile producing everything, from baby formulas to syringes, and that while paying no taxes, getting real estate for for free and paying next to no vages to employees);

- foreign debt reached unsustainable levels and is still growing (indeed, servicing foreign debts is meanwhile eating something like 90% of the GDP);

- corruption is worse than ever (it's impossible to explain how bad it is);

- but most of all: government repression is back to levels from 2011 and before (19 new prison complexes were constructed in the last three years, and they're still out of space all the time);

- police brutality is worse than under Mubarak;

- after earlier success, the military mishandled the situation in Sinai so badly, it meanwhile has lost all hope to bring the local insurgency under control; latest negative example: after two attacks on checkpoints in el-Arish, the local 'security services' simply rounded up 10 men and (in their own terminology), 'liquidated them'; some of those liquidated had nothing to do with insurgency and thus caused a mass protest in el-Arish; the situation there is currently 'brewing';

- and now the gov is attempting to hand over the control for Tiran Strait and Sanafir Island to the Saudis.

Here the Egyptian Administrative High Court reversed Sisi'splan: it declared that any kind of handing over these spots to the Saudis is null and void. Mind, the judge responsible for this decision is certain Ahmed el-Shazli.

Ringing any bells? Yes,that's the nephew of late Sa'ad el-Shazli, Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Army in 1973.

The same activists that brought these proceedings to the court are now planning to do charge for high treason 'against all those who attempted to, took part in, supported, or spread false information regarding Egyptian sovereignty of the Islands, from top to bottom, and including Sisi'.

With other words: there are all the 'triggers' for the revolution/uprising of 2011 in place - once again. In best case, Sisi's regime is in for a very rough ride this year. In worst case, there is going to be a bigger uprising than back in 2011.

Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-17-2017 at 02:34 PM. Reason: Add note
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Old 01-17-2017   #2
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Default Egypt 2017 onwards (incl. Sinai)

Attention to Egypt may have declined of late, as Iraq, Syria and the Yemen have been torn apart. It remains - for many, in the region and beyond - the key nation state. The catalyst for this is a new, wide update by Crowbat and that in a moment will appear first.

This is a new thread for 2017 onwards, it includes Egypt proper and Sinai (previously there was a small stand-alone thread for the Sinai).

The previous thread covering 2007-2016 is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=18454

There are several previous threads of value:

1) Arab armies and the 'Arab Spring' (closed) http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17859

2) Arab Spring Phase 3? (closed) http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17692

3) Egypt's Spring Revolution (now closed) http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=12371

4) The transformation of the Arab World (which looks at the wider impact and the impact on AQ) http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=16634
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Old 01-17-2017   #3
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Default An Egyptian Police General in 2013 said

On the previous thread I posted in August 2013, in Post 45, the below. Sadly what Crowbat refers to the repression underway and the building of prisons, makes me ask what future has Egypt has now?

Egyptian police General Amr in an interview:
Quote:
We are 90 million Egyptians and there are only 3 million Muslim Brotherhood We need six months for. liquidate or imprison all this is not a problem, as we have already done in the 1990s.
Link to Le Monde, French newspaper, to a IMO badly structured article, which includes this quote:http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/articl...3103_3212.html

No wonder some speculate the 'Algerian model' maybe followed:http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/midd...erian-playbook
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Old 01-17-2017   #4
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Default

The problem is that - contrary to back when Moursi's MB-government was removed by the military - now the population is not only against the MBs (like it was, back then), but against the military too.

(Or at least that's what I've got to hear from all the Egyptians I happen to know.)

Which means that the dickheads like Amr will have to declare all of 'them' (i.e. most of the population) for 'MBs' and incarcerate them. And that's not going to work, even if they construct not only 19, but 190 additional prisons.
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Old 04-04-2017   #5
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Default The changing security dynamic in the Red Sea

This Open Democracy article will be copied to the historical Egypt thread and this open thread both contain a few posts on the two islands being transferred from Egypt occupation back to Saudi Arabia. That thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=18454&page=5

It is raises some interesting points, notably the KSA-Israeli relationship. I had missed this news, with my emphasis:
Quote:
As such, the expected transfer of the islands is revealing a number of regional dynamics. The most vivid example of which is the new perceived strategic role of Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is expanding its role in the horn of Africa, especially with the recent conclusion of a deal with Djibouti to build a military base on its territory. The strategic location of the base, across the Yemeni shore, gives Saudi Arabia the ability to project its power over the Bab El Mandab strait. This serves to consolidate the position of Saudi Arabia as the reigning power over the Red Sea.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...ic-of-red-sea?
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Old 05-15-2017   #6
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Default Radicalise everyone: Egypt's COIN approach

An opinion piece from Open Democracy by an Egyptian journalist, which starts with:
Quote:
The army is a killing machine.” - These were words chosen by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi to address his soldiers as minister of defense. In a video leaked nearly three years ago, he explained why the army is incapable of fighting terrorism, why it should not partake in it and vowed this will never be its role. “It is not an arresting machine, we don’t know how to arrest,” he explained. “Why don’t we say this in the media? Because it’s not useful, people are unable to understand.”True to Sisi’s words, the army has been a killing machine, but breaking his vow, the army has placed itself at the forefront of the fight against terror. Over 6,000 people have been killed in operations in North Sinai under claims of terrorism affiliated activities.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/wael-eskandar/egypt-army-violence-sinai-terrorism-waronterror-church-bombs-militants?
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