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Old 08-08-2008   #21
Cougfootballfan
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been a while since theres been a good european war. I saw on the news that georgia was pulling its 1,000 troops out of iraq to help deal with this newest problem

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...12704620080808
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Old 08-09-2008   #22
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I hope the Georgians have learned well asymmetrical methods from its time in Iraq.
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Old 08-09-2008   #23
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I'm almost sure that this won't become a full-scale war, but end in a few days with a cease-fire.

Reason:
A full war would be detrimental to Putin's interests.
He wants the Georgian government weakened, and eventually replaced by an at the very least neutral government.

I'm convinced that this isn't about South Ossetia, Abchasia or oil.
It's about the definition of the zone of influence of NATO/USA and Russia.
Ukraine and Georgia are the two prizes that are left in this East-West struggle, and Russia needs to destabilize their governments to pull them out of the Western influence zone into theirs.
Most importantly, it needs to prevent that they become NATO members. Warfare almost guarantees that they won't become members for a while.

The Georgian government has probably done a lethal mistake already with the apparently excessive violence against civilians.
The Russians can use this "multiple rocket launchers shot into villages/city full of civilians" thing to portrait the Georgian government as bad guys.
That would have two phenomenal advantages for Putin; disrupting the Georgian government for a higher chance of a new government and keeping Western support small.
We don't (officially) support civilians-massacring baddies, after all.

Putin has already won. His troops only need to capture some square kilometres in South Ossetia to keep the status quo ante (plus quasi-permanent presence of Russian troops in South Ossetia).
He would be stupid if he allowed an escalation or long duration of the war.

I told others that there's some major conventional war potential in Eastern Europe; especially one bloc against the other bloc's proxy was a viable scenario. I cared more about Ukraine because that country is much more relevant, though.
I encountered deaf ears mostly, and very few people seem to see the dangers of the struggles and alliance growth in Eastern Europe.

We tend to discuss celebrities' haircuts much more than vital alliance policy.
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Old 08-09-2008   #24
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That is a good analysis Fuchs.
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Old 08-09-2008   #25
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Fuchs said:

Quote:
I told others that there's some major conventional war potential in Eastern Europe; especially one bloc against the other bloc's proxy was a viable scenario. I cared more about Ukraine because that country is much more relevant, though
.

I suggest to read Russia's last foreign policy concept.

http://www.mid.ru/ns-osndoc.nsf/0e92...b?OpenDocument

Here Rogozin comments it.

http://www.kommersant.com/p917043/r_...ept_of_Russia/

If someone reads Russian official statements by MFA and President, it is wierd to read about that there are only two sides in conflict - bad Georgian armed forces and Russian peacekeepers plus Russian civilian citizens. There are no words about South Ossetian paramilitaries, volunteers from other parts of Russia etc. I would like you suggest to read the commentary I posted earlier 1more time.

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373294
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Old 08-09-2008   #26
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So am I wrong in thinking that this is at least partialy the decision to recognize Kosovo coming back to bite everyone in the butt?

SFC W
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Old 08-09-2008   #27
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So am I wrong in thinking that this is at least partialy the decision to recognize Kosovo coming back to bite everyone in the butt?

SFC W
I am sure there is an element of payback here, but I think the Russians would have been up to something like this, anyway. Absent Kosovo, this or something like this would have happened regardless, Russia has wanted to bring its "near abroad" to heel for a long time now. I guess they've started to eat their Wheaties.
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Old 08-09-2008   #28
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Default Black Sea Access?

In the Aug '08 Jane's Navy magazine, Ukraine is drafting legislation to remove the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol by 2017.

Maritime access is a sensitive issue for Russia, especially year round ports.

Interesting that Russia attacks into another Black Sea nation on the heels of the Ukraine announcement (and the heated Russian counter-statements).
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Old 08-09-2008   #29
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In the Aug '08 Jane's Navy magazine, Ukraine is drafting legislation to remove the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol by 2017.

Maritime access is a sensitive issue for Russia, especially year round ports.

Interesting that Russia attacks into another Black Sea nation on the heels of the Ukraine announcement (and the heated Russian counter-statements).
The Russians have access to the Black Sea all along east of Kertsch.

Currently Novorisiysk is being expanded into a major navy port. But it has poor connection with the hinterland, no airport and very strong and unfavourable winds at times. Anyways, the Sevastopol thing is far more political than operational.
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Old 08-09-2008   #30
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August 5 there was an explosion on the BTC pipeline in eastern Turkey, still hasn't been extinguished, PKK is claiming responsibility. Is there any possibility that the Russian's, who have long supported the PKK, coordinated with them to tie-up any potential Turkish response? (Not sure on the depth of Georgian-Turkish defense relations, but know they are cordial terms)
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Old 08-09-2008   #31
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Quote:
MOSCOW MOVES TO DE FACTO ANNEXATION OF GEORGIAN BREAKAWAY REGIONS

By Svante E. Cornell and David J. Smith (04/16/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Moscow’s promised response to the Kosovo settlement in the Caucasus appears to be materializing. For several weeks, Russian leaders from President Vladimir Putin down have taken new bold steps that encroach even further and more directly on Georgia’s territorial integrity than is already the case. On April 16, Russia’s outgoing president Vladimir Putin signed a decree moving toward the de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, removing the tiny fig leaf still present regarding Moscow’s ambitions of direct control over Georgia’s breakaway regions. These moves could to trigger a spiral of instability in the wider region, unless a forceful western response is found.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/detai...10622&id=54679

Quote:
Marietta König
The Georgian-South Ossetian Conflict
http://www.core-hamburg.de/documents...04/K%F6nig.pdf




Quote:
TBILISI WITHDRAWS FROM THE JOINT CONTROL COMMISSION; PROPOSES NEW FORMAT FOR SOUTH OSSETIA
By Niklas Nilsson (03/19/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Russia has in the aftermath of Kosovo's declaration of independence further reinforced its support for South Ossetia, as well as Abkhazia, stressing the importance of Kosovo as a precedent for other ethnic conflicts. On March 6, Russia withdrew from the 1996 CIS treaty imposing economic sanctions on Abkhazia and has subsequently held discussions in the State Duma on the prospects for recognizing the independence of the two regions. Russia's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, has also sought to connect these decisions to the outcomes of the Bucharest NATO summit in April, where a verdict will likely be cast on Georgia's prospects for obtaining a Membership Action Plan within NATO. Several NATO members oppose a MAP for Georgia due to the implications Georgia's unresolved conflicts and its troubled relations with Russia may have for the alliance.
http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4816

Last edited by kaur; 08-09-2008 at 06:58 PM.
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Old 08-09-2008   #32
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According to news reports the Russians have committed 500 armored vehicles, 150 tanks, deployed the Black Sea fleet and is planning a 100 plane airborne insertion.
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Old 08-09-2008   #33
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According to news reports the Russians have committed 500 armored vehicles, 150 tanks, deployed the Black Sea fleet and is planning a 100 plane airborne insertion.
In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.
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Old 08-09-2008   #34
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The price would be too high and a Russia-friendly puppet government would not last long after a rise of nationalistic feelings as it always happens during an invasion.

The Georgian government will fall most likely anyway because of this apparent disaster. That's what Putin hopes for imho.
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Old 08-09-2008   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevely View Post
In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.
If that happens, say hello to the world's newest small war. The Georgians are well equipped and well trained (by us, coincidentally... anyone else happen to notice that they wear woodland MARPAT uniforms?). They won't just sit back and let themselves be absorbed by the Russians. They'll retaliate, and the Chechans may get involved as well. This will get very bloody, and I don't expect it to last just a few days. This could go on for months.
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Old 08-10-2008   #36
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The danger here is that someoen has miscalculated.

Putin calculates that the West can't and won't intervene militarily.

We are calculating that Russia will pull back.

What if all of us are wrong????
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Old 08-10-2008   #37
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Default Armageddon in the Caucasus?

No cut to the defense budget? We'll just have to wait and see. BTW, I'm not calculating that Russia will pull back or that the 'west' won't intervene. Everytime I think someone has done the dumbest thing in the world, someone comes along and tops it...

Don't you hate it when people don't play right? National interests can be such a drag.
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Old 08-10-2008   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darksaga
According to news reports the Russians have committed 500 armored vehicles, 150 tanks, deployed the Black Sea fleet and is planning a 100 plane airborne insertion.
In future posts, when making comments of this nature, provide a source. If you cannot provide a direct link, at a minimum clearly state the source of your information.
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Old 08-10-2008   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevely View Post
In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.
Maybe, or just keep the conflict hot enough to put the kibosh on Georgia (and the other candidate Ukraine) being voted into NATO membership come December.
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Old 08-10-2008   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uboat509 View Post
So am I wrong in thinking that this is at least partialy the decision to recognize Kosovo coming back to bite everyone in the butt?

SFC W
Completely agree.
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