Ukraine has no other option than to try to 'repair' relations with and coexist with Russia as the West failed them at a critical moment in their history even if it is just going through the motions.
Ukrainians will know that their only hope of independence and freedom from Russian domination will be to obtain nuclear weapons.
Originally Posted by Firn
Last edited by JMA; 05-28-2014 at 08:52 AM.
We didn't "fail" them.
Their government rejected our (not terribly attractive) offer and no government ever joined "us" or our alliances.
You're projecting your expectations - expectations which have no foundation in the real world. They had no reason to expect us to defend them.
I wonder about this. Western govs did fail but maybe not the West. I read an article that argues western business interests, privately directed, stopping doing business and pulling or threatening to pull out of Russia had a very great effect. Those that did did so without direction because after what Putin has done recently the uncertainty of doing business in Russia may not be worth the return. Supposedly this gave Vlad and the boys great pause. Firn would probably know more about it.
Another thing that in my own uninformed opinion had an effect was the prospect of a really nasty insurgency getting going if regular Russian forces moved into Ukraine other than Crimea. It's one thing to take something easy, like Crimea, but it is another to face the prospect of an insurgency conducted by people who really know how to do it. In that sense the Ukrainians have taken care of themselves.
Then again the whole thing may start up again in a few months. Jamestown Foundation says the Russkis had to pull their forces back for the moment to demob conscripts and bring new ones in.
But ultimately your right, they'll nuke up again, or try to. Pakistan and North Korea have proven that if you have nukes and a bad attitude, you can get away with almost anything.
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
Carl, with a little time we will learn exactly what happened in the run up to the Russian invasion of Crimea and subsequently. But I remember a few years ago when I criticized the German logic - as espoused and defended by Fuchs - that German dependence on gas imports from Russia did not produce a vulnerability as the Russians were as dependent on the income from the sale of the gas as the Germans were on the gas itself. Boy was he (and the Germans) wrong. it is this sort of strategic incompetence by Germany that has saved the world from a German empire on a scale of the old British one. In the case of the Germans their limitation remains the predominant national characteristic of arrogance while the Brits were defeated in terms of their empire by a knife in their back by their ally the US.
I personally place no great store in the ability of 'business' to act to the detriment of their commercial greed. Again will probably learn later what the real reasons were for these actions which are likely to be based on commercial considerations.
Putin is certainly not the smartest guy in the room but he has achieved a well timed victory over a largely 'burnt out' US and a militarily impotent Western Europe (in terms of the annexation of Crimea which it appears he has got away with). However, in so doing he has destroyed any goodwill there may have been among nations that were once under the jack-boot of the Soviets.
One of my earlier comments was for the US to make it known that they would seriously consider supplying tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine as a deterrent to further Russian expansionism and to provide a position of strength for Ukraine to negotiate a full and total withdrawal of Russia from Crimea. Now that Ukraine has a democratically elected government this offer should now be made.
Sorry, here you make a severe mistake:
Nuclaer weapons in the hands of a strong government may be a bonus, no real dispute.
However, nuclaer weapons in a state, that is in danger of becoming a failed state, may only accelerate the decline: there are fights within the state for the weapons and there is the high possibility that a neighbour uses the situation to secure imported weapons or dstroys production facilities.
Nuclaer weaopons neither prevent a state from becoming a failed state nor do they transform a failed state into a functioning state again. Therefore, Pakistan is an example with very limited value.
IMHO the Ukrainian government would be stupid to set the acquisition of nuclear weapons on the agenda.
That would make a difference if the Pak Army/ISI/feudal elites in Pakistan and the Kim family dynasty cared a tittle or a tot about the Pakistanis or the North Koreans. They don't. They care about themselves and having nukes gives them the ability to do a Mumbai, kill Americans or sink corvettes and get away with it. So for the limited purpose of keeping other people from invading or attacking you even in the face of provocation, nukes are just the thing.
Same thing with Russia itself. They get away with all the things they pull, stealing Crimea for example, because they have nukes.
The current world situation makes it pretty clear that if you have nukes, you are in a different class than if you don't. For Ukraine, getting them may be a problem. But having them will solve the Russia problem.
Last edited by carl; 05-28-2014 at 07:37 PM.
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
CNN about Chechens in Ukraine.
http://censor.net.ua/video_news/2872...chni_videofoto
Replace "Ukrainians" with %nationname%, "Russians" with "Americans" and this statement become even more close to the truth.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
There is a much cheaper way for this.
That is not a credible argument.
Any unity of purpose in Europe - as has been seen during the Russian invasion of Ukraine - is near impossible without US leadership... and in this case with US leadership being impotent Europe's response to Russian aggression was pathetic (as pathetic as that of the US).
The potential problems in Europe start with Russian dreams of reestablishing their empire, Islamic based terrorism and in third place - with the departure of the US - a resurgence of the Germany of old.
The US is no longer willing or indeed able to provide a security umbrella in Europe against Russian aggression - or in the Pacific as a counter to China - so yes Europe needs to learn to stand on its own two feet. Who will lead Europe in this? Germany? That would a recipe for disaster.
Moderator responds
Readers can judge for themselves the debate on this sometimes controversial thread and in the knowledge there is rarely agreement on what has happened nor what should happen now.
It is a fact that in eastern Ukraine there is a Russian-speaking minority, which sometimes can be a majority (earlier in this thread are maps showing this IIRC). Ukraine has a history of population movement as a result of wars and borders changing - something I expect they all know today. In the inter-war years and in 1945 there were several examples of voluntary and compulsory population exchanges.
At the moment there is no credible Ukrainian capability or will to engage in such a transfer. Note there are some reports from the Crimea that Tatars and others wish to exit.
I have asked JMA to be clearer as to what he is advocating (he later replied via PM).
Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-04-2014 at 11:12 PM. Reason: Updated after Mods review
davidbfpo
What can Latin America do to help in this crisis?
Should we go for Ukraine or go for Russia ?
Here in Latin America we do not knowwhat is the real stuff in Ukraine.
To much pro west or pro Russia.
Who has the truth?
Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-30-2014 at 05:48 PM. Reason: PM to author with query and response added
One thing I always thought was helpful when judging these things was this: where do people immigrate to and where do they emigrate from? Do the people from the West mostly move to Russia or do Russians mostly move to the West?
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
Fuchs---just a side comment---is not the eastern elections coupled with Chechen fighters now in eastern Ukraine and their stated desire to join Russia in reality "moving an entire population" from one existing state to another existing state---why is that then viewed as "ethnic cleansing".
There have been some serious thoughts given to say letting the Donbas "depart" the Ukraine---why the economic cost for both the EU and Ukraine in modernizing the industrial base and the infrastructure is massive.
Ask the Russians what the costs are now just for the Crimea just to keep it semi stable---even though the cost of food is now 50% more, fuel is only available for a max of two days at any given time, water is short and on and on---check the small comments coming out of the Crimea indicating buyers remorse is sitting in.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-04-2014 at 11:14 PM. Reason: Edited
mirhond---there are no "Russians" in eastern Ukraine---come on guy at least agree Chechens have a Russian passport and at least agree the Vostok BN has worked together with your friends the FSB/GRU.
http://www.rferl.org/content/vostok-.../25404785.html
http://inforesist.org/43-corpses-of-...to-18/?lang=en
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-30-2014 at 09:48 PM.
Fuchs---I could sum up JMAs comments by the following-- was not the recent statements by Merkel and Obama that if the Russians interfered in the elections and or physically got involved in the eastern Ukraine stage three sanctions would be started.
1. there was massive interference in the eastern and southern Ukraine to the election process---no response from the EU/US
2. the Vostok Chechen Bn which is inherently part of the Russian FSB/GRU, is Chechen which means Russian had a total of over 70 killed with the first 34 dead bodies going back to Russia today---still no response by Merkel/EU/US-----check the link below
http://inforesist.org/43-corpses-of-...to-18/?lang=en
3. the use of Russian serial numbered MANPADs and anti armor missiles, the use of the Russian AK105s only issued to Russian GRU/SF----and again still no response by Merkel/US/EU
4. the Russian Border Guard Service is "allowing" a steady flow of Russian irregulars and weapons enter into the Ukraine almost daily---STILL no response from Merkel/Obama and company---check this link
http://inforesist.org/80-militants-a...ation/?lang=en
After all of these "none responses" after stating there would be responses leds one to believe WHAT?
No response will ever be coming and it was all "talk".
After all can Merkel in fact jump over her FDJ/SED/Russian speaking past to deal with a former "Communist KGB COL" who was based in Dresden and handled the recruitment of agents in the West and who had recruited a number of "GDR citizens who were proSoviet" for a possible KGB GDR coup because they felt Honecker was getting to "moderate" in 1989/90. Even Honecker and Mielke mistrusted Putin and the Dresden KGB center.
Notice she has been extremely quiet since the 25th.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-04-2014 at 11:14 PM. Reason: Edited
Thread Closed
Since folks seem to be making some less than optimal decisions here, I'm closing this thread for the time being. We will reopen it once we feel there's been enough time for folks to cool down. I'm doing this in preference to handing out infractions, but that's my individual choice. For now.
"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
Moderator's Note
After a review by the Moderators this thread has been unlocked to enable SWC members to return to the discussion on this continuing crisis.
This thread has had to be locked before, with disciplinary action taken when SWC rules were breached several times and was locked a few days ago to enable a cooling down period. A number of posts have - again - been deleted and others edited to remove references to the breaches.
As Kaur has stated (on the Info Ops thread) and is cited now (in part):The Moderators repeat we are here to ensure SWC continues to be a useful place for members and readers. The RoE are clear. We are a "broad church" of opinions and viewpoints.Moderators, I don't understand why you closed the "Ukraine" thread. There is going on war that should be covered by this site. Am I wrong?
davidbfpo
Absolutely. If Canada and Mexico don't get nukes soon the US is bound to annex British Columbia and Sonora. Or maybe not...
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
There's a bit of sense in this...
http://time.com/139128/this-isnt-a-c...essarily-good/
This Isn’t A Cold War. And That’s Not Necessarily Good
Four key reasons why the Ukraine crisis doesn't fit that description--and why that means the situation will deteriorate...
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
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