It's A Salafi - Jihadist Insurgency, Stupid

[Fuchs]

Survive there these people cannot. From there someone must take them and someplace else put them.

Probably not the worst prescription in the realm of pure theory, but who do you think should carry it out? Who would provide that strict and effective regulation of the use of semi-arid regions?

Obviously, nobody does either and thus the problem follows a rather natural trajectory. The way nature resolves such affairs is messy, of course.


A start would be if the normal migration into cities was guided and accelerated a bit, in order to reduce the population in settlements. The share of the population in the desertifying regions which considers itself nomads could probably be enticed to a seasonal migration pattern, in order to reduce its presence in the problematic regions.

Either way, improving the economy (relative unemployment, especially youth unemployment) in the cities along rivers or generally in humid areas, would help a lot.

Regulating semi-arid land use might be feasible through nature reservations, but I don't recall any impressive big game in the area, so this would at least initially look quite unconvincing.
One might probably outlaw certain kinds of livestock, too (the ones which damage vegetation the most. Goats are such problematic livestock elsewhere, but I'm not sure which livestock is being used in the region.)

[davidbfpo]

Yes there are a few people outside the Sahel and Africa who wish to see the region, including Mali, face the changing environmental scene as the sands shift. That long-term objective should be kept in view.

I agree fully that the success of AQIM & allies in Mali is not a strategic disaster for the West, including France. The Quilliam paper gives us a template to think about and help the locals wage their own competition with Jihadist factions. Malians know far better now what their enemy is. Now whether they want to fight themselves is unclear.

[Dayuhan]

The way nature resolves such affairs is messy, of course.

The way people solve such affairs can be pretty messy too, especially when it involves shifting a lot of people into areas that are already occupied.

A start would be if the normal migration into cities was guided and accelerated a bit, in order to reduce the population in settlements. The share of the population in the desertifying regions which considers itself nomads could probably be enticed to a seasonal migration pattern, in order to reduce its presence in the problematic regions.

Either way, improving the economy (relative unemployment, especially youth unemployment) in the cities along rivers or generally in humid areas, would help a lot.

Regulating semi-arid land use might be feasible through nature reservations, but I don't recall any impressive big game in the area, so this would at least initially look quite unconvincing.

One might probably outlaw certain kinds of livestock, too (the ones which damage vegetation the most. Goats are such problematic livestock elsewhere, but I'm not sure which livestock is being used in the region.)

Is there any government in that area capable of carrying out the actions emphasized by bold type above? Any external authority with the capacity and interest? It's all a very nice idea, but short of putting the whole region under some external authority with the capacity to take on these actions, which we all know is not going to happen, it seems too far outside the confines of practical reality to warrant discussion.

[Fuchs]

Compare the resettlement policies in Tanzania from its early independence period.
It doesn't take a highly organised state to pull something like this off, African style.

The motivation is the real scarcity, not the capability.