South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[slapout9]

By the way, this whole maritime issue also plays into China's actions in space. The goal is access denial by continually pushing the boundaries of sovereignty. Whereas Europeans and some others are chipping away at sovereignty, China embraces it and seeks to expand it in novel ways. The lawyer in me likes the strategy even if I do not agree with the tactics.

Yes, they have a plan and we don't.

[LawVol]

Yes, they have a plan and we don't.

You are correct, but any plan, at this point, would require a greater embrace of international institutions and international law than most Americans are willing to have. While I certainly embrace traditional notions of territorial sovereignty, I am against expanding it to areas typically viewed as global commons. Freedom of navigation within the commons is crucial to American security interests and the crux of the international economy. Thorough a closer embrace of international institutions and law we can "prep the battlefield" and perhaps increase those connections Gates spoke of.

Have we focused too much on the "war of terror" and thus dropped the ball in the Pacific? Is this issue evidence of our need to pursue a different strategy with respect to terrorism, so we can remember the big picture?

[Tukhachevskii]

Thougfht I'd share this map asa reference. Map originates from an old web article here
Conflict in the South China Sea: China’s Relations with Vietnam and the Philippines


p.s. Not as big as I would have liekd. Sort of makes a mockery of posting it as a reference aid.

[slapout9]

Have we focused too much on the "war of terror" and thus dropped the ball in the Pacific? Is this issue evidence of our need to pursue a different strategy with respect to terrorism, so we can remember the big picture?

I would say yes. I think China jumps up and down whenever we spend massive resources on wars of choice instead of building a country for the 21st Century.

[slapout9]

All, if you get a chance watch this tonight. Check your local listings.


http://thechinaquestion.com/

[davidbfpo]

In a BBC report on the PRC's aircraft carrier is a small map of the South China Sea and the disputed islands (my IT skills preclude placing it here):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13692558

The dotted line showing China's claims do make one pause for thought.

[slapout9]

Don't worry about the south china sea look what they want to do in Boise,Idaho.



http://endoftheamericandream.com/arc...of-boise-idaho

[carl]

Slap:

That story is a little breathless, the implication being the thousands of Chinamen are going to be establishing an enclave in Idaho, sort of the Shanghai legations reversed. I'll believe it when I see it. If the Chinese want to build businesses and facilities in Idaho, essentially giving us money, let 'em at it. The Idahos won't care who signs the paycheck as long as it doesn't bounce.

The story also contains this quote:

"The borrower is always the servant of the lender, and now China is buying up America."

That is true unless you get into really big money, then the situation is reversed. Or so says Donald Trump.

[AdamG]

General Liang Guanglie, China’s defence minister, has rejected criticism that his country was acting belligerently in the South China Sea, saying China was pursuing a “peaceful rise”.

“You say our actions do not match our words. I certainly do not agree,” Gen Liang replied to critics at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a high-profile Asia defence forum in Singapore.

Speaking days after Vietnam and the Philippines accused China of aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea, Gen Liang denied that China was threatening security in the strategically important and energy-rich disputed waters, saying “freedom of navigation has never been impeded”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/21c9e72a-8...#ixzz1OSKXqKLX

China is the dominant producer of rare earth metals, which are increasingly fuelling the global high-tech and green economy. From 2009 to 2010, Chinese mines accounted for 259,000 tonnes out of a total global production of 263,000 tonnes of rare earth oxide. But with this massive production has come ever more restrictive measures to control the export of these commodities.

China claims it’s doing so to protect the environment and argues that tighter measures are necessary to ensure rare earth mining industry remains sustainable. However, major consumers of rare earths including Japan, the United States, and EU states counter that recent Chinese actions to reduce exports contravene World Trade Organisation rules on free trade.

http://the-diplomat.com/new-leaders-...earth-motives/

[carl]

Ok, but do they have a good plan?

It doesn't matter whether their plan is good or bad. What matters is they almost certainly will act, and act aggressively, and we might act, or we might not, depending on what a focus group says. The one thing they can be certain of is that we can't make up our minds and that will feed their determination to act. They will be so far inside our OODA loop that any plan at all will do. It doesn't matter a whit what they will be and what we are if we won't do anything.

It appears the Chinese objective is to establish effective control, or sovereignty or whatever over the whole of the South China Sea. Law of the Sea arguments and expressions of concern won't stop them. When they do that they will have demonstrated to the world that they can do as they like and nobody will stop them. That will increase their confidence in their ability to pull this kind of thing off which will make it more likely they will continue. And all those other countries in the area will see what they can do and will incorporate that knowledge into their accounting. Things are likely to get very complicated.

The belligerent actions mentioned in Adam G's post are shots fired near Filipino and Vietnamese fishing boats to drive them out of disputed areas. Information Dissemination blog covers this today. The Filipinos can't do anything much about it and the Vietnamese don't have much power but the Viets are very truculent so who knows what they may eventually do.

[AdamG]

Just for fun - scratch out 2010 and insert 2012.

Eastern Sea (AKA South China Sea) December 2010: World War III starts over a desolate and worthless looking area in the western Pacific Ocean known as the Spratly Islands.

Strategically located between and claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei, the Spratly Islands are also claimed by distant neighbors China and Taiwan. Located in the middle of major shipping lanes with over-abundant commercial fishing possibilities, the Spratly Islands cause turmoil for an even greater reason: untapped oil and gas reserves.

http://thelastcolumnist.com/world/the-spratly-islands/

[davidbfpo]

A strange twist to Chinese diplomacy, initially for the Paracel Islands, as the BBC reports:

China is to begin running tourism cruises to a chain of disputed islands in the South China Sea by next month, state media reports.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-22056661

An astute move, even more worrying if such a ship cruises into a hotly disputed area.

Incidentally this week IISS have a book launch on the disputes:http://www.iiss.org/events-calendar/...-sea-disputes/

[Ray]

US floats nuclear subs option

The United States has indicated for the first time it would be willing to lease or sell a nuclear submarine to Australia in a move that will inflame tensions with China and force the Coalition to declare its policy on #bolstering regional defence.......

Former prime minister Kevin Rudd’s 2009 defence white paper, predicated on the potential threat posed by China, called for 12 submarines, much larger than the Collins class – around 4000 tonnes compared to the current 3050 tonnes......

Kokoda Foundation founder Ross Babbage, a proponent of the nuclear submarine option, said a smaller fleet of nuclear powered boats would serve Australia better than any available conventional submarine. “You would not need 12, you could probably get away with 9 or 10, they are much larger than a conventional sub, can carry more weapons and would have far greater range and endurance than a conventional sub,’’ he said.

“It would also be great step forward in terms of Australia’s interoperability with the United States.’’.....

Though the idea has been criticised as unworkable because Australia doesn’t have a nuclear industry to support a nuclear submarine fleet defence sources suggest the Australian fleet could be maintained at a US base in the Pacific Ocean or a US nuclear submarine base could be established in Australia........

http://www.afr.com/p/national/us_flo...3KjNwBLfFxpdeO


Dated, but indicative of the concern with which the shenanigans in the SCS is being watched.

[ganulv]

http://www.afr.com/p/national/us_flo...3KjNwBLfFxpdeO


Dated, but indicative of the concern with which the shenanigans in the SCS is being watched.

This would perhaps explain the Australian naval officer’s visit last year to the GD facility in my part of the world.

[davidbfpo]

A number of nations over time have expressed an interest in having nuclear submarines (SSN), I was not aware Australia had such an interest. The RAN has a big problem already with manning its existing submarines, which has been in the public domain for sometime.

There a number of non-submarine components needed for an effective SSN operation, the most expensive ones being a shipyard and a waste facility. Even the UK has struggled at times, especially storing waste.

IIRC the really difficult component is recruiting, training and retaining key crew members, probably reactor operators.

Switching continent and seas for a moment Brazil has expressed an interest, if not requirement for acquiring SSN(s) and have held talks recently with the UK on what it really means.

One could argue that the opening of new basing facilities to the USA in Australia is a far better, cheaper strategic option that SSNs.

[Bill Moore]

The situation remains tense.

Australia upgrading its submarine fleet

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Sec...6651353513031/

Chinese Media Warn Philippines Of 'Counterstrike' If 'Provocations' Continue In South China Sea

http://www.ibtimes.com/chinese-media...na-sea-1328649

Japan to take Phl's side in South China Sea dispute

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...na-sea-dispute