Turkey mainly, Iraq and the Kurds (2006-2014)

[marct]

I'm a big fan of the Kurdish people and their cause; and the PKK keeps making them look bad...but the U.S. consulate? Not really the PKK's Modus Operendi; makes me think it wasn't them.

I would tend to doubt it - the PKK doesn't need stuff like that . It sounds like a very silly attack - by "silly" I mean it really had no chance whatsoever of actually causing much damage. I suppose it might have been an assassination attempt, or it might just be a couple of wannabe irhab flexing the muscles between their ears.

[Stan]

Ambassador Wilson’s Remarks after the Attack on the Consulate General in Istanbul

Ankara, Turkey
Wednesday, July 9, 2008

First, I want to express my condolences and those of the US government to the families of three Turkish police personnel who were killed in the attack that took place earlier today on our Consulate General in Istanbul.

The facts are that at approximately 11am, assailants opened fire on the Turkish police post at the main entrance of the consulate. I understand that as many as three assailants may have been killed as well.

I also spoke a short while ago with our Consul General in Istanbul, Sharon Wiener, and understand from her that all of our consulate staff are safe and accounted for.

It is, of course, inappropriate now to speculate on who is responsible for this or why they carried out this action. It is an obvious act of terrorism.

Much more at the link...

[Tom Odom]

Unlike most missions overseas--especially consulates which tended to be tail end charlie when it came to priority in upgrades, the consulates in Turkey were hardened after the troubles of the late 70s and early 80s. I worked with the Consulate in Izmir 1982-1983 and it moved into a new facility during that period. By comparison, the embassy that Stan and I worked in in Kinshasa or the embassy in Kigali in the early 90s were antiquated affairs. All of that has, gratefully, changed.

Tom

[Stan]

Unlike most missions overseas--especially consulates which tended to be tail end charlie when it came to priority in upgrades, the consulates in Turkey were hardened after the troubles of the late 70s and early 80s. I worked with the Consulate in Izmir 1982-1983 and it moved into a new facility during that period. By comparison, the embassy that Stan and I worked in in Kinshasa or the embassy in Kigali in the early 90s were antiquated affairs. All of that has, gratefully, changed.

Tom

I can barely imagine what those (ahem) trained Gendarmes in Kin would have done with their Uzis. State has come along way with protection at embassies and consulates post 9/11.

Perhaps hard to attempt an assassination when members rarely leave the compound Forget that one.

Got to wonder though... was this but a test? What sort of support do we now hope to maintain from Turkish law enforcement? Volunteers to stand in front of US Embassies ?

[marct]

Much more at the link...

Thanks for the link, Stan! Ambassador Wilson certainly seems to be able to say "I don't know" in so many, and varied, ways .

[Stan]

Thanks for the link, Stan! Ambassador Wilson certainly seems to be able to say "I don't know" in so many, and varied, ways .

Hey Marc !
Ever been to Foggy Bottom for diplomatic training, or, at the very least, been around those that have graduated

I wished I could remember half the responses Tom had at country team meetings following "I don't know"

[marct]

Hey Marc !
Ever been to Foggy Bottom for diplomatic training, or, at the very least, been around those that have graduated

I wished I could remember half the responses Tom had at country team meetings following "I don't know"

Hey Stan,

Nope, never hung around in FB, however, I do live in Ottawa... . As we used to say up here, "I'm really glad you raised that issue. My position on it is quite clear - it is important and we are studying it intensely... Next question?"

[RTK]

I'd have a hard time believing PKK (or Kongra Gel, or whatever they call themselves this week) were involved. Though listed on the terrorist watch list, they have been rumored by Seymour Hersh as recently as November as being supported by the US. There are 12 organizations Turkey considers as terrorist groups working within Turkey. Note number 8 at the link and the fact that Turkey has only listed them as a terrorist group within the last 3 years (note also that the EU didn't officially name Hezbollah as a terrorist organization until NOV 2005). This coincides with the same timeline Turkey has sought admission to the EU.

I think this was probably an outside resistance group that probably has no ties to the Kurdish movements, possibly the one listed above. It will be interesting to see what comes out in the coming days.

[Rex Brynen]

I'd have a hard time believing PKK (or Kongra Gel, or whatever they call themselves this week) were involved. Though listed on the terrorist watch list, they have been rumored by Seymour Hersh as recently as November as being supported by the US. There are 12 organizations Turkey considers as terrorist groups working within Turkey. Note number 8 at the link and the fact that Turkey has only listed them as a terrorist group within the last 3 years (note also that the EU didn't officially name Hezbollah as a terrorist organization until NOV 2005). This coincides with the same timeline Turkey has sought admission to the EU.

I think this was probably an outside resistance group that probably has no ties to the Kurdish movements, possibly the one listed above. It will be interesting to see what comes out in the coming days.

I think your second link is mislinked, since it also goes to Hersh's New Yorker article. I suspect it should go here.

It should be noted that Lebanese Hizballah and Turkish Hizballah are entirely different organizations—the former is Shi'ite, while the latter is a Sunni extremist group that originally grew, in part, as a reaction to the PKK.

[RTK]

I think your second link is mislinked, since it also goes to Hersh's New Yorker article. I suspect it should go here.

It should be noted that Lebanese Hizballah and Turkish Hizballah are entirely different organizations—the former is Shi'ite, while the latter is a Sunni extremist group that originally grew, in part, as a reaction to the PKK.

I concur. Wasn't too clear on that part...

Link fixed and thanks for the clarification.

[RTK]

It appears it may have been #10 on the list linked above.

[bourbon]

INITIAL EVIDENCE SUGGESTS HOMEGROWN ORIGIN FOR ATTACK ON U.S. CONSULATE, By Gareth Jenkins. Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, July 10, 2008.

The Turkish media have seized on the reported links of two of the assailants with foreign extremists as proof that the attack on the U.S. Consulate General was an Al Qaeda operation (Yeni Safak, Zaman, July 10). Such a conclusion appears, however, to be based more on a desire to deflect the ultimate responsibility for the attack onto outside forces than on an objective appraisal of the evidence. Even if two of the assailants had been in contact with Al Qaeda, the lack of either a detailed plan or more sophisticated weaponry strongly suggests that the attack was the exclusive work of the assailants themselves.

FWIW, a Turkish friend of mine thought it was related to Turkish Hezbollah, seeing as how the dead terrorists were from the southeast. This dovetailed into a pre-coup "strategy of tension" theory(conspiracy), based around connections between the military and Hezbollah.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 13 Nov 08: Turkey and Iraqi Kurds: Conflict or Cooperation?

At a time when rising Arab-Kurdish tensions again threaten Iraq’s stability, neighbouring Turkey has begun to cast a large shadow over Iraqi Kurdistan. It has been a study in contrasts: Turkish jets periodically bomb suspected hideouts of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan, PKK) in northern Iraq, and Ankara expresses alarm at the prospect of Kurdish independence, yet at the same time has significantly deepened its ties to the Iraqi Kurdish region. Both Turkey and Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG, a term Turkey studiously avoids) would be well served by keeping ultra-nationalism at bay and continuing to invest in a relationship that, though fragile and buffeted by the many uncertainties surrounding Iraq, has proved remarkably pragmatic and fruitful......

[Schmedlap]

I was watching the Mosaic: World News from the Middle East program from Link TV this morning (podcast available from iTunes). I nearly spit my Irish Coffee all over my heart-clogging breakfast when I saw this report: EU to Remove Iranian Opposition Group from Terror List (translated by Mosaic from Al Arabiya TV, UAE). More at al-Arabiya (English) here.

PMOI (People's Mujahideen of Iran) / MEK (Mujahideen-e-Khalq) Wiki

I don't know if it would be prudent to operationally leverage MEK against Iran anytime soon, but it sure would be nice to have that leverage available as a bargaining chip. If the EU takes them off the FTO list, then maybe we will as well? And then we would have the option of openly working with them?

From an earlier piece from Jamestown: "Iran's military will engage Kurdish separatists whenever encountered, in exchange for Turkey's cooperation against the Iranian Mujahideen-e-Khalq movement"

And this from a more recent report: "Iraq plans to close a camp for Iranian dissidents who used to cross into Iran to mount assassinations and sabotage - a decision that has sharpened political differences between Baghdad and Washington."

More recently:

Iraq plans to extradite members of an Iranian armed opposition group who have "Iranian blood on their hands," Iraq's national security adviser said Friday during a visit to Tehran.

"Among the members of this group, some have the blood of Iraqi innocents on their hands (and) we will hand them over to Iraqi justice, and some who have Iranian blood on their hands we can hand over to Iran," said Muwafaq al-Rubaie.
- al-Arabiya

I wonder what the near-term fate of the MEK will be?

The latest news:

"Iran said the European Union would be committing a "political" act and may worsen relations if it struck the exiled People's Mujahedeen of Iran from a blacklist of terrorist groups... The EU will decide whether to take the group off the terror list this week."
- Bloomberg

It seems that there was (and possibly still is) a view within our camp that MEK, while Iran's terrorist, could have been (and maybe still is) our freedom fighter. Given the possible cooperation between Turkey and Iran to crack down on "their" mutual terrorists, and the pressure now being exerted upon MEK by Iraq, it seems that this long, drawn-out issue is now approaching an endgame of some sort. Is this an ally whom we want? I guess, more relevant - is this a group whom the new administration is willing to associate with?

[Surferbeetle]

From wikipedia A Time for Drunken Horses, which can be seen on Cinemondo...

A Kurdish family is trying to survive after the death of its parents. Ayoub, the eldest boy in the family, becomes the head of the household and must do whatever work available to survive. Madi, Ayoub's handicapped brother, is in need of a medical operation. Ayoub goes to great lengths to collect money for the operation by smuggling truck tires with a group of Kurdish villagers near the Iran-Iraq border. Ayoub ultimately falls short of his intended goal and his uncle decides to marry off his sister in return for the groom's family financing Madi's operation on the Iranian side of the border. When they arrive the mother of the groom refuses to accepts Madi and agrees to give Ayoub and his uncle a mule as compensation. The smugglers use mules to carry goods and feed them liquor allowing them to better survive the harsh mountain winter. Near the border, Iranian soldiers seize the villagers'(and Ayoub's) merchandise.

[Ken White]

I wonder what the near-term fate of the MEK will be?
...Is this an ally whom we want? I guess, more relevant - is this a group whom the new administration is willing to associate with?

Panetta if he gets confirmed. Hayden is from the old admin...

[Schmedlap]

I was thinking of a decider higher up. I think the President has come into office with unrealistic expectations. Certainly this is the case among the most shrill and ideologically-stubborn of his supporters. To not only fail to meet those expectations, but to then collude with MEK? I think that would just be too much for them. On the other hand, now he has to make decisions instead of speeches.

[Ken White]

but the guy I named is the likely public face -- and will definitely (or nominally) be in charge of the very long term owners of US interests in MEK.

True on the decisions versus speeches and the first few decisions do not impress me as much more than fluff to keep the base happy. My sensing is that we're going to see some not too smart Defense decisions. I generally chuckle a bit when I see really smart folks outsmart themselves but the potential for some bad damage in the military arena is worryingly present....

[Schmedlap]

Done deal:

BRUSSELS, Jan. 26 (UPI) -- European foreign ministers in Brussels Monday agreed on a terrorism list that does not include the People's Mujahedin of Iran based in Iraq's Diyala province. Milena Vicenova, the Czech envoy to the European Union, said Friday the latest version of the list of terrorist organizations recognized by the European Union was forwarded to ministers without the name of the PMOI. European miniters approved the list Monday.
- via UPI

I wonder if we'll follow suit. That would be very multilateral of us.

[Ron Humphrey]

The EU thing doesn't seem like too bad a move. That said following too quickly in step with that might be equivalent to too much at once.

Nothing wrong with thinking about it though