Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

[Biggus]

One of them stated that it had been a mistake to say what they did and maybe they should have worded their comments differently as their statements “make it sound like the separatists had shot down the plane.

The benefit of hindsight.

Even without silly self-incriminating comments by over-excited rebel troops, there would probably be enough evidence pointing at them.

An-26 at the very extreme edge of MANPAD range on July 14 at Luhansk towards the end of a bunch of airstrikes. July 15-17 new bunch of airstrikes closer to Donetsk, another shootdown well out of MANPAD range. It would have been worked out one way or another. Every little bit of accidentally leaked social media or phone conversation just adds that little bit more to the stack.

[OUTLAW 09]

Good report to watch. I think the line between recovering bodies and recovering incriminating evidence is quite blurry here. I'd really like to think that there was a body that the gentlemen with the equipment were busy freeing from the wreckage.

Did anyone notice the guy with the AK off safe just before the nine minute mark?

One has to appreciate the humor if it was not so darn serious---he is apparently arguing that 1) the international community cannot expect the site to be totally untouched---man there is a war going on seems to be his response although the UA called for a 27km ceasefire around the crash site and 2) it is the fault of the Ukrainians as they want to drag out the investigation as they are responsible for the crash.

IMO they are cutting up the debris in the hopes of destroying any technical info that can be gleaned from it---if you notice his comments around the 5:35 mark.

Or they simply could be hauling the big chucks of metal away for cash at the local recycle plant.

[Biggus]

Biggus:

The latest Russian theory on "who did it"?---- and "it definitely was not us or the separatists that downed the aircraft"

From Interfax today:

14:32 Ukrainian Buk-M1 might have mistaken Boeing for spy plane - Russian expert

Not sure there was a "spy plane" in the area because if it was then the Russian Defense Ministry somehow "missed it" in their briefing when they depicted the various aircraft tracks---maybe it was in "stealth" mode from Mars?

One has to love these unnamed "Russian experts".

The next excuse is about five hours away based on their release cycle---they will wait to see if this one grabs any attention in the media before they move again.

To be fair, most of the western media aviation experts are at least equally as ridiculous.

If this spy plane wasn't Ukraine's (why shoot your own), and it wasn't Russia's (because it's impossible that they'd forget they were running EW aircraft up and down and all around), then who is flying 777-like spy aircraft over the battlespace? The USAF get an order recently for tac recon in preparation for an invasion?

Russia would be far better served if they found the rebel crew, found the launch vehicle and offered to transport everything to an international court, and gave up the increasingly desperate straw-grasping.

[OUTLAW 09]

To be fair, most of the western media aviation experts are at least equally as ridiculous.

If this spy plane wasn't Ukraine's (why shoot your own), and it wasn't Russia's (because it's impossible that they'd forget they were running EW aircraft up and down and all around), then who is flying 777-like spy aircraft over the battlespace? The USAF get an order recently for tac recon in preparation for an invasion?

Russia would be far better served if they found the rebel crew, found the launch vehicle and offered to transport everything to an international court, and gave up the increasingly desperate straw-grasping.

Biggus---you have make an interesting point--if in fact the Russians chased down the shooters and turned over the missile and tracked vehicle they would win the prize of the year, end the sanctions and be merry partners with the EU.

But---if that is the easiest and most logical thing to do---why not--IMO Putin has gotten in so deep in his new doctrinal philosophy of protecting ethnicity based on language and his deep hatred of the West and motivated by his hardliners and his desires to see Russia a superpower he just cannot jump over his shadow and do the right thing.

By the way this hatred is in his DNA ---many from his KGB days in Dresden/Moscow have said this often in the last years---and it led to a former KGB COL being murdered in London.

That is in fact extremely dangerous-a man with a deep philosophical passion --he talks well yesterday at his RNSC meeting and then the West calms down and say see he is trying and then 20 tanks and more fighters go over the borders. And separatists are shooting SAMs like crazy so it does not seem that his words make much difference--so does he even believe his own words-- not really as it is the smoke screen he thinks the EU needs to keep from going to sanctions which will be harder.

It is more dangerous now that the UA is encircling the separatists and is basically slowly winning on their own after a really ragged start---that is something he never anticipated---so couple the potential of a UA victory it makes him look weak and a fool and thus it breaks the image he is attempting to create---maybe one should send in psychologists not diplomats to these trilateral meetings?

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus---you can set your watch on these information warfare guys---here is the next big "super theory" about the shot down although an hour early as they are trying to make the evening news cycle in EU.

Interfax from today:

16:38 KYIV AUTHORITIES HOLD SOME SECRET ACTIVITIES WITH INFO OF TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ON BOEING CRASH WITHOUT NOTIFYING INT'L ORGANIZATIONS - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY

By the way neither the Interfax nor their other press release agency RIA have made any comments on the US intel briefing from yesterday---think they are seriously caught in a bind with so many "alleged" going around it is hard to then catch the curve again with something that makes any kind of sense.

But in propaganda nothing needs to make sense---it is just about words and messaging

This the then the lancing of more details by the other agency RAI at 18:50 today to reinforce the first messaging---man are they working overtime for reasons---I said at the beginning of the Crimea information war it would make for a great Ph.d thesis and it really would after the shot down.

MOSCOW, July 23 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Foreign Ministry has accused Kiev of trying to influence air traffic controllers and tamper with Boeing crash data in the wake of last week's disaster in eastern Ukraine, the ministry’s spokesman said Wednesday.

“According to reports that emerge, Ukrainian authorities are conducting certain covert activities involving data storage equipment and employees of Ukrainian air traffic control services, both civilian and military, without notifying international organizations,” spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement.

He said the Ukrainian government sought to spin every fact to make Russia a target for criticism, instead of helping international experts to advance the investigation into the crash of Malaysia Airlines plane, “while also making the results of such activities open to the public.”

“Obviously, this contradicts with the goal of an objective and unbiased investigation,” the spokesman said, adding this wasn’t the first time that Ukrainians violated investigation procedures.

[kaur]

Some guys have tracked the BUK.

Russian transport of BUK into Ukraine on July 17th
On 17/7 a Russian convoy had arrived in Ukraine which transported the BUK that shot down Malasian MK17. At about 13:30 the BUK must have entered the city Snizhne.

The convoy consisted of 3 tanks, 2 BTRs, a truck with militia, a truck with a heavy machine gun and a loader transporting the BUK.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...o-ukraine.html

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...shot-down.html

Etc

[OUTLAW 09]

Some guys have tracked the BUK.



http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...o-ukraine.html

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...shot-down.html

Etc

solid kaur--solid--that was the same white tractor trailer hauling it back into Russia. this is how open source supports all source analysis.

would have been great to have the negative to see if one could seen any missiles while it was in the inbound transport mode before the shot down

[mirhond]

mirhond, before posting next time test your links with your fallacy formula. Without going too far with your postings (this will spoil your next weekend) test your fallacy thing with RF MoD press conference.

That RIA Novosti, Leonov, Potuptchik etc chain belongs to this phenomena.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spin_(public_relations)

I am terribly disturbed that MoD is using Nashi spins in international relations sphere. Or should this confirm that MoD, RIA Novosti, Nashi guys work in concert?

1. No, no, you ask too much, I'am not very interested in double-checking my links, because disproving your funny BS and disclosing your fallacies are already take much time and give challenge to my righting skills. So, please continue to search valliantly - you really good at it and you contribute much more to the reasonable discussion then, say, Outlaw, who seems to be obsessed with me
You could even pinpoint fallacies in the links and posts using relevant glossary.

2. State entities and state media are the fingers of one palm - why you ever found it disturbing?

It seems that mirhond's unit is doing push ups and running in gas masks. Temperature in Moscow is 25 C and generals are angry, because can't go to datcha and wives are sitting on their necks. At the same time most of Russia is on vacation. This makes situation very bad for mirhond's unit. He'll be very angry, when he returns to SWJ. Be aware

Wow, such deep knowledge of my personal life \(*_*)/
I fail to see how it's relevant to the subject, anyway.

[OUTLAW 09]

1. No, no, you ask too much, I'am not very interested in double-checking my links, because disproving your funny BS and disclosing your fallacies are already take much time and give challenge to my righting skills. So, please continue to search valliantly - you really good at it and you contribute much more to the reasonable discussion then, say, Outlaw, who seems to be obsessed with me
You could even pinpoint fallacies in the links and posts using relevant glossary.

2. State entities and state media are the fingers of one palm - why you ever found it disturbing?



Wow, such deep knowledge of my personal life \(*_*)/
I fail to see how it's relevant to the subject, anyway.

comrade mirhond---and that palm is getting Putin in trouble due to that palm shooting down a civilian airliner---that would be correct based on your fallacies.

but in your world fallacies are truth but truth are lies thus your fallacies are lies correct comrade

[OUTLAW 09]

comrade mirhond---read and weep---seems your mercenaries had in fact thhe Buk---seems they cannot stop talking about the killing of 298 civilians and both Russia and they seem then to lie about it


http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...le-357618.html

[JMA]

The Group of Bloggers Unearthing MH17 Intel Quicker Than U.S. Spies

Anyone still beleieve the CIA has any value?

[JMA]

No you are not confused, you are feigning confusion... while attempting to be cute.

How would "full sectoral scantions" have "done the trick" when they are not politically feasible in the U.S. or Europe? Have you found much success in making unrealistic recommendations?

Another Dayuhan style posting I see.

I'm not the one making military recommendations. Adjust your fire elsewhere.

I'm not interested in analyzing foreign policy through the narrow lense of Outlaw's moral principles. You could be more effective in attempt at character assassination if you just came out and said what you were really thinking instead of making passive-aggressive comments. Just a suggestion. Honesty is really the best policy here.

You are correct I was not honest with you mainly because with the quick draw moderators around here that is most often not the best policy.

You see when you took my simple statement:

"Had the US and EU acted decisively and firmly this would not have happened."

... and spun it to indicate that any decisive action would ultimately lead to a military confrontation with Russia (using Outlaw's comments in the process).

You see AP that sort of (intellectual) dishonesty leads me to think of this piece of work:

Senator says he had PTSD when he wrote thesis

With regard to his plagiarism he states:

"I don't want to blame my mistake on PTSD, but I do want to say it may have been a factor," the senator said. "My head was not in a place very conducive to a classroom and an academic environment."

and surprise, surprise (just like they did with Clinton):

National Democrats said Wednesday they remained "100 percent behind Sen. Walsh" in his campaign against Republican Rep. Steve Daines.

You see AP, as I have said before here many times,everything in the US is negotiable, that includes, ethics, morality ... the works. As the old saying goes... "Scum Rises to the Top"

Is that honest enough for you?

[Biggus]

Some guys have tracked the BUK.



http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...o-ukraine.html

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...shot-down.html

Etc

Those two links are very informative. I wonder what form of resupply they were using, in terms of fuel and missiles, given that something very Buk-like shot down that An26 on July 14. Noting that it's only missing one missile, either there's a resupply, or there's a second launch vehicle.

Biggus---you can set your watch on these information warfare guys---here is the next big "super theory" about the shot down although an hour early as they are trying to make the evening news cycle in EU.

Interfax from today:

16:38 KYIV AUTHORITIES HOLD SOME SECRET ACTIVITIES WITH INFO OF TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ON BOEING CRASH WITHOUT NOTIFYING INT'L ORGANIZATIONS - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY

By the way neither the Interfax nor their other press release agency RIA have made any comments on the US intel briefing from yesterday---think they are seriously caught in a bind with so many "alleged" going around it is hard to then catch the curve again with something that makes any kind of sense.

But in propaganda nothing needs to make sense---it is just about words and messaging

This the then the lancing of more details by the other agency RAI at 18:50 today to reinforce the first messaging---man are they working overtime for reasons---I said at the beginning of the Crimea information war it would make for a great Ph.d thesis and it really would after the shot down.

MOSCOW, July 23 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Foreign Ministry has accused Kiev of trying to influence air traffic controllers and tamper with Boeing crash data in the wake of last week's disaster in eastern Ukraine, the ministry’s spokesman said Wednesday.

“According to reports that emerge, Ukrainian authorities are conducting certain covert activities involving data storage equipment and employees of Ukrainian air traffic control services, both civilian and military, without notifying international organizations,” spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement.

He said the Ukrainian government sought to spin every fact to make Russia a target for criticism, instead of helping international experts to advance the investigation into the crash of Malaysia Airlines plane, “while also making the results of such activities open to the public.”

“Obviously, this contradicts with the goal of an objective and unbiased investigation,” the spokesman said, adding this wasn’t the first time that Ukrainians violated investigation procedures.

I am completely surprised that Russia isn't accusing Kiev of 'disappearing' the "Spanish ATC operator."

Given that Russian-backed militants and the Malaysians are the only ones who have had access to the black boxes (not to mention the possibility of actual Russian personnel), I can't see how they could think that this is any more believable than any previous message they've tried pushing. It ultimately does not matter, because the black boxes will contain nothing we don't already know.

[OUTLAW 09]

The Group of Bloggers Unearthing MH17 Intel Quicker Than U.S. Spies

Anyone still beleieve the CIA has any value?

JMA--there is an old truth all agencies do not want the public to hear, see and or understand---approximately 80% of all usable intel comes via open source---the other 20% is the technical side which if used correctly can then confirm or deny.

That rule still applies today and I would even nudge it to roughly 86-90% based on social media inputs that were not there in the past.

In approximately 2010 and driven by the company that hired Snowdon because they were the prime contractor behind a document exploitation contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars-- they gently got the US government to start classifying all open source materials as Secret in fact then jamming up the agencies because now one has to declassify what was originally open to all. In the old days while the accompanying report was classified the materials were always unclas--but not today.

But to the question--why the US government did not immediately respond using it as we did posting it here almost 36-48 hrs after the shot down eludes me even---unless there is serious concern that by pushing it into the face of Putin he would invade.

There have been a series of serious Ukrainian info releases indicating they seriously assumed Russia was in fact going to move into the Ukraine between 14-17 July about the same time as the shot down---which begs the question did the mercenaries know that to and were they given the task of clearing the air space prior to arrival?

[kaur]

mirhond, nice to see you back. Thanks for nice words! Good sparring partner makes us all better. Keep pushing us from staying in comfort zone!

[JMA]

But to the question--why the US government did not immediately respond using it as we did posting it here almost 36-48 hrs after the shot down eludes me even---unless there is serious concern that by pushing it into the face of Putin he would invade.

The other possible reason is that if the US went public with confirmation of Russian involvement (to put it lightly) then they might have to do something about it... as it is now they have an excuse for inaction saying they are still confirming the facts.

[OUTLAW 09]

JMA--you bring up an interesting point by pointing to bloggers---

This today from Interfax proves your point---

Moscow - Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov has said that U.S. intelligence officials have not presented a single piece of evidence capable of proving that militiamen in eastern Ukraine could have been involved in the July 17 crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.

In addition to the US intel briefing they should have released every swinging photo analysis that kaur linked to as part and parcel of the briefing and simply said we concur---the photos would have been picked up by the global news cycle and then you would not have this Russian comment today.

Yesterday I linked to an interview with a Ukrainian irregular commander who clearly stated another group had the Buk ---and signaled to a degree buyers remorse in the whole issue.

Why that was not splashed across the media linking again to the voice intercepts, irregular fighter interviews at the crash site and this article is beyond me.

It is as if the West does not want to rock the boat and it flies in the face of common decency to those killed---it does not confront who was behind it when the info is there in ones face.

What astounds me is the argument by the EU that it will damage their economies and business----there was yesterday an editorial comment by a leading Berlin newspaper pushing for some sort of action.

Depending on how one calculates the Russia German yearly business exchange it is only at the most 4% of their total GDP and they pointed out it is simple as an exporting country to find other outlets other than Russia for products---and about natural gas---first it is overcharged as Gasprom is in fact a total 1930 monopoly based on anyones definition and the EU is getting ready to charge exactly that and demand 10% duties on their yearly profits back to 2009.

Secondly there is enough world wide supplies just a tad more expensive but in the end worth the shift.

Interesting how the German SPD is attempting to protect Putin.

[kaur]

In an interview with Reuters, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion, acknowledged for the first time since the airliner was brought down in eastern Ukraine on Thursday that the rebels did possess the BUK missile system and said it could have been sent back subsequently to remove proof of its presence.

"I knew that a BUK came from Luhansk. At the time I was told that a BUK from Luhansk was coming under the flag of the LNR," he said, referring to the Luhansk People’s Republic, the main rebel group operating in Luhansk, one of two rebel provinces along with Donetsk, the province where the crash took place.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0FS1V920140723

See what bloggers found out about Buk and "Vostok"

Basically this means that EVERYTHING MAKES SENSE. The driver arrives in Donetsk, parks the loader, somebody sees it, tweets about it, driver does not know final destination is, calls to find out, he has to drive to the hideout to pick up some more guys from Vostok and then move on to Pervomaiskoe:

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...ts-of-buk.html

I think that Ukrainians should float this area with free smartphones with free internet access and drop couple containers of Google glasses.

[JMA]

Interesting how the German SPD is attempting to protect Putin.

Yes, but not a surprise.

The cozy relationship between Russia and Germany has been obvious for some time now... obvious even to US intelligence it seems... probably the reason for the spying on Germany - just a pity the spying was so amateur it was picked up.

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes, but not a surprise.

The cozy relationship between Russia and Germany has been obvious for some time now... obvious even to US intelligence it seems... probably the reason for the spying on Germany - just a pity the spying was so amateur it was picked up.

JMA --this new generation is definitely not trade craft savvy---the cold war tended to keep one focused.

But then they came out of Vienna---maybe they have just been there to long and enjoy the great life. The US term is "homesteading"--to long in one place.