Northern Ireland (merged thread)

[Red Rat]

more then anything else. It is not widely reported because there have been few casualties. Sometimes the bomb does not go off, sometimes it does but there is no-one there. Their standard of shooting leaves a little to be desired as well .

Off the top of my head there have been two serious casualties this year, both policemen. One suffered serious leg injuries when his car was blown up and the other suffered serious arm injuries when his patrol was attacked with an explosive device.

Last year I think we lost two soldiers killed and one policeman.

[JMA]

more then anything else. It is not widely reported because there have been few casualties. Sometimes the bomb does not go off, sometimes it does but there is no-one there. Their standard of shooting leaves a little to be desired as well .

Off the top of my head there have been two serious casualties this year, both policemen. One suffered serious leg injuries when his car was blown up and the other suffered serious arm injuries when his patrol was attacked with an explosive device.

Last year I think we lost two soldiers killed and one policeman.

These guys are at the bottom of a learning curve then. They should be leaving evidence lying around at the scene?

[Red Rat]

I do not know.

The police have conducted several high profile anti-terrorist operations over the last 12 months in N Ireland (NI News) so it is as likely as ever that 'every contact leaves a trace' as we used to say.

I would surmise that there is a combination of Irish Republican 'diehards' with previous PIRA experience and capabilities who provide the core, and a whole host of young bloods coming in. Looking at how PIRA operated and the Active Service Unit (ASU) cell structure, then depending on who split from whom and who is doing what now, will reflect on what expertise is available to the new terrorist groupings and how competent they are. And of course they are learning all the time.

[JMA]

I do not know.

The police have conducted several high profile anti-terrorist operations over the last 12 months in N Ireland (NI News) so it is as likely as ever that 'every contact leaves a trace' as we used to say.

I would surmise that there is a combination of Irish Republican 'diehards' with previous PIRA experience and capabilities who provide the core, and a whole host of young bloods coming in. Looking at how PIRA operated and the Active Service Unit (ASU) cell structure, then depending on who split from whom and who is doing what now, will reflect on what expertise is available to the new terrorist groupings and how competent they are. And of course they are learning all the time.

Are the Brits prepared for round two?

[Red Rat]

The problem is much smaller then it was so maybe Round 1.1

The worry is what the overall impact of the economic crisis in the Republic and wider Europe will have on the politics. Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein) has stated an intent to stand in any election in the Republic of Ireland. Although Sinn Fein may be regarded as moderates compared to some of the splinter Republican groupings Sinn Fein is not as moderate as the mainstream Irish political parties. In times of turmoil and economic hardship extremists tend to thrive - witness the 1920s-30s.

The UK government's austerity measures will also start to bite in N Ireland in the next two years. And N Ireland relies disproportionately on public sector employment.

So economic hardship (crime does pay and all terrorist groupings in Ireland are heavily involved in organised crime) and extreme politics make for interesting times ahead.

[JMA]

The problem is much smaller then it was so maybe Round 1.1

The worry is what the overall impact of the economic crisis in the Republic and wider Europe will have on the politics. Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein) has stated an intent to stand in any election in the Republic of Ireland. Although Sinn Fein may be regarded as moderates compared to some of the splinter Republican groupings Sinn Fein is not as moderate as the mainstream Irish political parties. In times of turmoil and economic hardship extremists tend to thrive - witness the 1920s-30s.

The UK government's austerity measures will also start to bite in N Ireland in the next two years. And N Ireland relies disproportionately on public sector employment.

So economic hardship (crime does pay and all terrorist groupings in Ireland are heavily involved in organised crime) and extreme politics make for interesting times ahead.

Don't suppose a HVT assassination programme against radical republican splinter group leadership (like the one in Afghanistan) will be possible in NI? Pity.

[davidbfpo]

The wheels of justice move slowly:

Two men accused of killing two soldiers at Massereene army barracks in Antrim last year (March 2009) are to stand trial for the murders...The case against the men centres on DNA evidence found inside the car used in the attack.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11962757

Incidentally JMA a HVT assassination policy against the Republican splinter groups leadership is not a good option, leaving aside principles, politics (many I expect reside in the Republic), the key point is the retention of to date massive public opposition to renewed violence.

[JMA]

Incidentally JMA a HVT assassination policy against the Republican splinter groups leadership is not a good option, leaving aside principles, politics (many I expect reside in the Republic), the key point is the retention of to date massive public opposition to renewed violence.

Well if it is true that these groups still make most of their money from crime and extortion then perhaps that is the immediate route to pursue in attempting to put them away?

[davidbfpo]

Catching up and in response to JMA's comment:

Well if it is true that these groups still make most of their money from crime and extortion then perhaps that is the immediate route to pursue in attempting to put them away?

The multi-agency approach in Northern Ireland took time to gain momentum IIRC, not helped by the size of the drug demand. I've not seen anything on whether this approach is still active. I suspect the 'Peace Dividend' led to a reduction in capability, political will is another matter.

On reflection will the 'new' hard-line Republicans have a corner of the crime and extortion rackets? Might the less hard-line ensure competition is discouraged?

[JMA]

Catching up and in response to JMA's comment:

The multi-agency approach in Northern Ireland took time to gain momentum IIRC, not helped by the size of the drug demand. I've not seen anything on whether this approach is still active. I suspect the 'Peace Dividend' led to a reduction in capability, political will is another matter.

On reflection will the 'new' hard-line Republicans have a corner of the crime and extortion rackets? Might the less hard-line ensure competition is discouraged?

They got Al Capone foir tax evasion. Short of HVT assassination I would think that the criminal prosecution route is a good one to follow... but being aware not to create martyrs like they are busy doing with Assange.

[davidbfpo]

After months of trying to kill a police officer (PSNI, formerly RUC) a so far unknown group has killed a Catholic officer, with an IED under his own car in Omargh; an officer with less than a year's service:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-12948992

Amidst the comments is that of Martin McGuinness, ex-PIRA / Sinn Fein, which may sound trite to some, but indicates how much has changed:

In joining the PSNI this young man sought to protect and serve the community; to be part of defining a better future for us all," he said.

Whoever carried out this act offer nothing to the community and have no role to play in our future.

They have betrayed the community and set themselves against the will of the people of Ireland. No cause is served by this act and let no excuse be acknowledged.

While those behind this act seek to promote division and conflict let us state clearly, they will fail. The process of peace building will continue and the community is united in rejection of them.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-12947646

Added later; statement by Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein President condemning the murder:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-the-last.html

Of note IIRC for the first time he calls for Catholics to join the PSNI and appealed for the public to help the police find those responsible.

[jmm99]

Hi David,

Thank you for the update.

Martin McGuinness has been critical of these "Splinter IRA" for a relatively long time. Two years ago (in the context of another PSNI murder), he called the perps "traitors to the island of Ireland" - Monkey do; monkey do ...

As I commented here, the only legitimate descendants of the IRA are the Republic's defense forces. Those who today call themselves "IRA" are splinters of splinter groups.

I also don't recall Gerry Adams being "positive" on the PSNI in the past; but he clearly is saying that today. In retrospect, things have improved over the last 15 years, back when my teacher on Northern Ireland was a moderate man of peace - the former pastor of a former constable named Ronnie Flanagan.

Regards

Mike

[Red Rat]

N Ireland, like the remainder of the UK has local elections in May. It is entirely possible that Sinn Feinn will end up as the largest single party due to the fragmentation of the unionist vote. Martin McGuinness is already positioning himself as a possible First Minister (and has mooted the possibility of being a Joint First Minister in a sop to unionist sensibilities).

I have heard a lot of concern from friends resident in N Ireland about the effects of the UK Govt's austerity programme. N Ireland is heavily dependent on the public sector and UK Govt cutbacks may deprive this and in turn feed the extremism.

The successful attack on the PSNI will be a significant boost to the dissidents who have lost perceived credibility with their inability to prosecute attacks for some months and a considerable degree of degradation and disruption achieved by security forces against them over the Christmas period.

Linking on to JMA's point, criminality and terrorism are inextricably linked in N Ireland and the multi-agency approach was very successful in the closing years of The Troubles. In particular tracing and attacking the sources of revenue and confiscation of assets proved very successful (shades of Al Capone's conviction for tax evasion). This approach continues to be continued, but it must be noted that the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) is but a shadow of what it's forerunner the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) was. Many of the most experienced RUC detectives and CT experts left in the late '90s when the force was restructured and the PSNI remains a young police force unversed in coping with a significant terrorist threat. I believe that the Chief Constable of the PSNI is on record as requesting significant additional resources to help him cope with the increased threat.

[davidbfpo]

The article's full title 'United by the blood of one of its sons, Ireland, North and South, grieves':http://www.scotsman.com/news/United-...-of.6747350.jp

Not unexpected and as symbols vital:

...respects were paid by the heads of the Catholic, Anglican, Presbyterian and Methodist churches; the commanders of the police forces in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland; the new prime minister of Ireland, Enda Kenny; and Mr Robinson and Mr McGuinness....Mr McGuinness was accompanied by Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, who was also attending his first police funeral. They walked up to the church side by side with Mr Robinson and Mr Kenny.

More tellingly the family priest commented:

Seeing him sitting behind the wheel of the police car, I thought to myself: There is the new symbol of Northern Ireland. A young man living out his childhood dream to be of service to others, to help protect others. To be a peace-builder in communities, and between communities.

[davidbfpo]

In an unexpected development, with one man arrested and currently not charged:

Police hunting the killer of a Catholic policeman murdered in a car bomb in Northern Ireland arrested a 26-year-old man in Scotland after uncovering a major arms cache containing high explosives and Kalashnikov rifles.
The arrest of the unnamed man - who was said to have been living near Loch Lomond for several months - raises (my emphasis) the possibility that dissident republicans could have been using Scotland as a base to plan their attacks.

In the past both Loyalist and Republicans IIRC had a presence in Scotland, not the dissidents though.

I shall watch to see what develops.

Link:http://www.scotsman.com/news/Scots-t...der.6747349.jp

[Red Rat]

My (civilian) friends in N Ireland tell me that the funeral has had a huge impact.

Peter Robinson (Unionist (Protestant)) the Northern Ireland First Minister attended the Requiem Mass together with Martin McGuinness (Deputy First Minister (Sinn Feinn (Catholic)). Peter Robinson expended a large amount of political capital in doing so and the impact is thought to be significant.

The honour guard and pall beareres were a mixed guard of PSNI (still perceived as establishment and predominantly unionist) and Irish Footballers (Gaelic Athletic Association) - perceived as staunchly Republican. The dead police constable was a member of both and again the symbolism of having an intertwined honour guard from these two traditionally very opposite groupings is huge.

[davidbfpo]

The IED that killed PSNI Constable Kerr appears to have used Semtex and taken from an ICSR mailing (not yet on their website):

Use of Semtex may be a sign of ‘the Libya legacy’ rather than new stockpiles

The history of the dissidents over the last thirteen years shows the difficulty faced by groups seeking to import new weapons into Northern Ireland, with a number of plots foiled by the security services.

However, when Michael McKevitt and others left the Provisionals, many within the security services believe that they took stocks of weaponry and explosives with them, including materials acquired from Col. Gaddaffi’s Libya, such as Semtex. The recent attack is therefore likely to be an enduring legacy of the Provisional IRA’s Libyan ‘link up’.

This is not the first time that dissidents have used Semtex. As early as 1999 it was clear that some of this had made its way into their hands; and previous attacks have deployed the substance (see, for example, an August 2008 attack in Co. Fermanagh).

Prefaced by a list of dissident Republican incidents:

Since the March 2009 murder of two British soldiers and a policeman by the dissidents, various groups have been operating at a tempo which reflects their growing confidence and capabilities. Even before the murder of PC Kerr, dissidents have been responsible for the following incidents:

• The wounding of a woman in east Belfast by an under car bomb
• A 400lb bomb partially exploding at the HQ of the Policing Board in Belfast
• The serious maiming of Police Constable Peadar Heffron
• Repeated gun and bomb attacks on police stations and patrols in rural areas such as Crossmaglen, Newtonhamilton, Bessbrook and Keady in South Armagh
• The detonation of a 250lb car bomb outside Newry courthouse
• The murder of Kieran Doherty in Derry
• A 50lb car bomb that exploded outside the regional HQ of MI5 in Belfast
• Organised, sectarian rioting in Belfast
• One 200lb car bomb that narrowly failed to detonate outside a Co. Tyrone police station (Aughnacloy); and another that did explode outside Strand road police station in Derry
• Booby-trap bombs left under the cars of a serving police officer (Kilkeel) and an army major (Bangor) in Co. Down, and another that targeted a civilian security worker in Co. Tyrone (Cookstown)
• The partial detonation of a bomb outside a school in Lurgan, Co. Armagh, which injured three children
• A 200lb car bomb that exploded outside the Ulster Bank in Derry
• A bomb attack on the ‘City of Culture’ offices in Derry
• An attempted ‘double tap’ bomb attack on police officers in North Belfast, which was only aborted at the last moment due to the presence of a civilian woman

There appears to be a self-limiting press embargo on full coverage of such incidents, akin to "denying them of the oxygen of publicity" and no doubt to the satisfaction of the UK government, who would rather that Northern Ireland remains off the agenda and TV screens.

[davidbfpo]

After a lull and no doubt an extended period in custody for questioning a man has been charged with firearms and explosives offences - relating to a car bomb found in Ulster, but not the murder of Constable Kerr. Two others released:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-13166401

Digging though the reports the man arrested in Scotland was released without charge:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukp...1303229538284A

[davidbfpo]

A RUSI backgrounder 'Understanding the Dissident Republican Threat to the UK and Ireland' by Mark Lynch, with a precis:

The rising threat of dissident Republican activity in Northern Ireland comes at a time when the vast majority of Northern Irish people are moving towards a more normalised political environment. To challenge the threat, we need a more nuanced understanding of dissident republican motivations.

Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4DD28EFBE1860/

[davidbfpo]

Here in the UK we had a few glimpses of some limited rioting in East Belfast last week, where a small Catholic enclave abuts a "hardline" Protestant 'Loyalist' area.

This article makes an intriguing observation that violence has gone up when all the political and para-military groups are in governance.

The graph of bombings and shootings 1995-2011, based on PSNI (police) data I've not seen before; there is a link to the data.

back to why the rioting:

And more recent history is part of the explanation for the events of this week. An Historical Enquiries Team within the police is investigating crimes committed since the onset of the ‘troubles’. This may implicate UVF members who had thought they had escaped punishment when the Belfast agreement released their imprisoned confrères within a couple of years. The orchestrated rioting has been a very public way of saying ‘back off’.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourking...rthern-ireland