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Thread: The Russian economy (catch all)

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    My suggestion was and remains: negotiate. The coercive tools available to the U.S. are not sufficient to fully dislodge Russia from Ukraine. Nor is Ukraine the exclusive or primary security interest of the U.S. The only reason why policy discussions in recent weeks have drifted to talks about increasing U.S. security commitments to Europe is to signal to NATO's eastern European members that they won't be left in the lurch - it has nothing to do with actually restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity.

    You not only advocate aggressively reversing Russia's gains, but also to disarm Russia entirely. Despite repeated questions from Dayuhan on how that could be achieved, you have been silent in answering how you would disarm a nuclear state, and do so without further threatening U.S. security interests in Europe and elsewhere.

    Frankly, your ideas are poorly thought-out and would only lead to further erosions in U.S. security.
    AP--US security went down the drain in 2003 actually it went down the drain starting in Beirut in the 80s. Security went down the drain when the green flags of Hezbollah were walked into Lebanon, security went down the drain when all US military power was pulled out of Europe, security went down the drain when we decided soft power works over hard power. Security went down the drain when we expanded in AFG after 2001 , and security went down the drain when the political parties in Congress decided drinking tea was better than governing. Security went down the drain when banks blew up the property bubble and no one went to jail. Security went down the drain when the drug cartels were allowed to expand into the US when no one cared what they were doing down south but some political parties in the US were interested more in what the ATF was doing.

    AP the list could go on and on and on....

    AP---still awaiting your response to the FP article paragraph for paragraph---let's see how you respond to the reality in the field not in your comments.

    It is reality that needs an answer.

    By the way hope which you state often is and will never be a strategy. One can actually define negotiations as being a form of "hope".

    By the way NEGOIATE for what? A return of the Crimea , a return to the former Soviet Union that Putin envisions, or a return to the Cold War or a return of Stalin or a return of the Czar-negotiate a return of Russian ethnic nationalism which is really a form of fascism--again negotiate for what AP?

    Again AP negotiate for what?--not firing artillery and MRLs into the Ukraine, or negotiate for what not killing none Christians as defined by Russian Cossack mercenaries---again AP negotiate for what?

    By the way --this goes to just how you read---have I ever here advocated for disarming Russia---what I have advocated is making sure they fully understand the red lines and that there is a price for attempting to rewrite Soviet history that was doomed by the poor Russian decision making of that period and a collapsed Soviet economy due to the low price of oil ---not by anything the West was alleged to have done.

    Come on AP quote back to me where I advocated the disarming of Russia.

    I keep asking you--why does the world need a Russia which is in reality a developing second world country that envisions itself as the third superpower?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-12-2014 at 09:11 PM. Reason: Edited slightly or completly by Moderator to enable thread to be reopened

  2. #182
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    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-08-2014 at 09:40 PM. Reason: format 4 link

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    AP---you cannot really believe this comment of yours do you?---you really did need to have resided and worked here in Europe since 1967--then maybe you might have a different take on Russia.

    Originally Posted by AmericanPride:
    Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia: dissolve NATO, a new Marshall Plan for countries of the former USSR, the most critical players of all: Russian citizens and companies. This could include reducing the existing visa barriers between Russia and the EU and, in the longer term, lessening the restrictions on working abroad..the West could radically shift the focus of its cooperation with Russia to the Pacific.
    By the way AP you really do know that the EU has offered a number of times for Russia to associate with and later into the EU as a joint economic zone but Russia wanted a Eurasia concept to lock in the older SU countries---you do know the Russian response---nyet.

    You do know that the Russian parliament has representatives in the EU PACE and yet they walked out over the Crimea when the EU confronted them on it---so how is anything similar to work in the future?

    Come on AP you really do not believe what you wrote right?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-12-2014 at 09:12 PM. Reason: Fix quote

  4. #184
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    By the way --this goes to just how you read---have I ever here advocated for disarming Russia---what I have advocated is making sure they fully understand the red lines and that there is a price for attempting to rewrite Soviet history
    I don't agree with AP on the negotiation side; I doubt that negotiation would achieve much without the deployment of significant carrots and sticks.

    What I'm missing from you, despite your efforts to position yourself as an omniscient authority, is any hint of a practical policy suggestion. What, specifically, do you think the US and EU should do at this point? Surely your self appointed authority puts you in a position to make a suggestion, and if it doesn't, what good is it?

    If you're talking of "red lines", what exactly should they be and what should be done if (when) they are tested? If we're talking of prices, what specific price do you suggest and how is that price to be imposed?
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I don't agree with AP on the negotiation side; I doubt that negotiation would achieve much without the deployment of significant carrots and sticks.

    What I'm missing from you, despite your efforts to position yourself as an omniscient authority, is any hint of a practical policy suggestion. What, specifically, do you think the US and EU should do at this point? Surely your self appointed authority puts you in a position to make a suggestion, and if it doesn't, what good is it?

    If you're talking of "red lines", what exactly should they be and what should be done if (when) they are tested? If we're talking of prices, what specific price do you suggest and how is that price to be imposed?
    See Dayuhan--this is the problem--if you had been following my comments and those of JMA then you would have seen the red lines and the suggestions.

    I am for one really waiting for the 90 day bank lines of credit to be halted and the halting of sales of stocks for all Russian oligarch companies as well as the halting of all Sovereign fund bonds as well as Russian company bonds sales.

    Then the red line is seriously stated to Putin.

    Only when he clearly sees the financial abyss will he pull back as he cannot regardless of how much propaganda he throws at the Russian population ---there are way to many of the middle class that sees , hears, and understands the west from their many trips/vacations and they fully understand the propaganda---Putin has totally established a dictatorship using "legal democratic" means and they are now afraid to say anything out of fear of landing in prison. Just listen to the voices of the young Russian generation that is here in Berlin in large numbers---anti Putin to a person--but then totally nationalist Russians in their love of their country. There is the disconnect.

    Remember what drove them in 1994---the realization that there was another economic developmental/growth model out they and they knew they wanted a part of it. Yes the average yearly income of 7K has been risen to 14K but it has been on the credit pump from the west and there still is no real serious internal development that can sustain Russia when the raw resource turn down---then what? Remember Russia is still the same old Soviet style state capitalism just with "former communist" now "democratic" oligarchs.

    Just look at the food sanctions ban--it did not really hurt the west---actually Europeans were startled by his remarks as they know it will hit the Russian consumer far harder---but Putin needs to drive his population backwards in order to survive the isolation that is now there---the problem is and he totally forgot--Russia is tied to the globalized world thus cannot drift back into economic isolation without truly damaging his own economy for the next 20 years.

    Putin is struggling to get reelected nothing more nothing less and if it means crossing with little green men into the Ukraine in the end he will do it---the question is just how hard will the west push back on against a ethnic national imperialist bent on reestablishing the Russian Empire?

    He has already crossed two serious red lines and that has been signaled to him a large number of times and yet he does not respond---and all AP wants to do is what----to negotiate?

    So in the end if his economy totally tanks it is not the fault of the west which he so often blames for everything--- it is then his own fault---but right now he is in an "ain't my responsibility---it is yours" mindset.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-09-2014 at 07:22 AM.

  6. #186
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw
    By the way NEGOIATE for what? A return of the Crimea , a return to the former Soviet Union that Putin envisions, or a return to the Cold War or a return of Stalin or a return of the Czar-negotiate a return of Russian ethnic nationalism which is really a form of fascism--again negotiate for what AP? Again AP negotiate for what?--not firing artillery and MRLs into the Ukraine, or negotiate for what not killing none Christians as defined by Russian Cossack mercenaries---again AP negotiate for what?
    Negotiate for what? How about starting with identifying the official U.S. and Russian positions. Have you bothered to investigate what they are?
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    I think it is important to be honest when it comes to the (short-term) political outcome of sanctions and confess we don't know. The study cited by AP comes up with a 30% success rate, but if one considers that sanctions itself are a negative selection there remains the questions: What would have happened without the sanctions? A more favorable outcome, a worse one? For whom? What impact had it on other countries faced with potential sanctions.?

    In addition to that even good studies suffer form the usual problems of a limited sample and huge differences between countries and considerable ones in the extent and type of sanctions. So it is important to be sceptical.

    So far the political logic of sanctions against Russia seems to be:

    a) Showing that all those words were not hollow
    b) Impose rising costs for Russia to make it less likely that Putin 'escalates' further
    c) Possibly also trying to make an international point with a + b

    So far the Kremlin doesn't look like it backs off, but just has I have written after the Crimean annexations (without anticipating the invasion into the Donbass) this looks like a long game.


    The economic consequences are much easier to predict, even if their precise outcome can't be know, especially since the sanction cycle is in full swing. At least Putin helps us to run a big real-world economic experiment which will pretty likely support other experiments in that direction.
    Last edited by Firn; 08-09-2014 at 07:07 PM.
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  8. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    So far the political logic of sanctions against Russia seems to be:

    a) Showing that all those words were not hollow
    b) Impose rising costs for Russia to make it less likely that Putin 'escalates' further
    c) Possibly also trying to make an international point with a + b
    I think it's important to note the absence of reversing Russia's gains in Ukraine from your list. I don't think the ineffectiveness of sanctions in regards to reverse gains is lost on the Obama administration and I'm inclined to believe that the sanctions are an attempt at posturing vis-a-vis Russia for a better bargaining positioning down the road and to signal to U.S. allies (particularly Poland and the Baltic states) that the U.S. is committed to European security.

    At some point, the escalation cycle will exhaust itself and both Washington and Moscow will be left staring at one another wondering what to do next. The only game-changer would be the prospect of the extermination of the separatists, which I think is highly likely to trigger further Russian escalation. Note that the Georgian conflict ended with a formal cease fire but many of the political and territorial issues remain unsolved and frozen for the time being. I suspect a similar situation to emerge in Ukraine - the exact boundaries of which are at this point unclear but at least include Russia keeping Crimea.
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    I think it's important to note the absence of reversing Russia's gains in Ukraine from your list. I don't think the ineffectiveness of sanctions in regards to reverse gains is lost on the Obama administration and I'm inclined to believe that the sanctions are an attempt at posturing vis-a-vis Russia for a better bargaining positioning down the road and to signal to U.S. allies (particularly Poland and the Baltic states) that the U.S. is committed to European security.

    At some point, the escalation cycle will exhaust itself and both Washington and Moscow will be left staring at one another wondering what to do next. The only game-changer would be the prospect of the extermination of the separatists, which I think is highly likely to trigger further Russian escalation. Note that the Georgian conflict ended with a formal cease fire but many of the political and territorial issues remain unsolved and frozen for the time being. I suspect a similar situation to emerge in Ukraine - the exact boundaries of which are at this point unclear but at least include Russia keeping Crimea.

    Then AP you seem to not understand just what is ongoing in the Ukraine--right now the UA has fully surrounded Donetsk and are on the verge of cutting all LOCs from Russia and have signaled Russia they view any crossing of the borders as an act of war.

    Georgia is not the Ukraine and Russia knows that---why ----to cross over would provoke far more serious sanctions on their gas industry. Right now there is some indications that the Ukrainian Army has shifted some of their SF units into a guerrilla environment that have been ambushing the separatists constantly for the last few weeks.

    The Ukrainians read Russia far better than we will ever do and have under their new President actually out maneuvered Putin at his own game since they went onto military operations after the first ceasefire failed.

    You as well seem to not have seen the somewhat pathetic Russian response with the food ban on the west which had even the most conservative European economists shaking their heads as it will hit Russian consumers far harder than anywhere in the west.

    Also the pathetic threat of not allowing western airlines to cross Siberian airspace got dropped in a hurry after Putin and his deputy made such statements---did you really think Aeroflot was going to give up 300M USD a year for the overflights?

    Down to the pathetic threat of raising gas prices seemed to what frighten the EU---notice how fast it came of the table when the Ukrainians threatened to cut all oil and gas crossing the Ukraine.

    You really seem to get hung up on this "negotiating thing" and Russia is not about to negotiate with anyone from the west the last time I read Isvesitia.

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-985313.html

    By the way AP did you notice that absolutely no ongoing negotiations on any topic has gone anywhere? Wonder why?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-09-2014 at 08:56 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    While I see cowardly appeasement rearing it's head there is a chance that you are now openly pushing Russian propaganda. Which is it?
    American Pride, wellcome to SWJ Exclusive Club of KGB mouthpieces. I'll send you cookies, on occasion

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    prices have raised 45% just in the last two days regardless of how his propaganda spins it
    Outright lie and complete BS, as usual. It takes few weeks perhaps, before retail prices start to rise.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-09-2014 at 09:48 PM.
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    One consumer visited shop with higher price range "Seventh continet" in Moscow and took some photos. After comparing the view with Putin's sanctions list, he did some cutting and painting and you can see the moscovites choices on the second pic.

    http://www.the-village.ru/village/si...ka-vkusa-takoe

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    American Pride, wellcome to SWJ Exclusive Club of KGB mouthpieces. I'll send you cookies, on occasion
    Look up 'Antonio Negri' and see where he is coming from. Maybe the difference is that you are doing it for the money and he for ideological reasons... but he seems to have missed that communism collapsed in Russia some time ago. Mirhond, you don't believe in the Marxist crap do you?

  13. #193
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    See Dayuhan--this is the problem--if you had been following my comments and those of JMA then you would have seen the red lines and the suggestions.
    I do read most of the posts, though given the sheer volume and occasional incoherence it's always possible to miss something. I've seen little or nothing that indicates a specific suggestion. From JMA the closest I saw was a presumably facetious recommendation that the Ukraine be provided with nuclear weapons.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    I am for one really waiting for the 90 day bank lines of credit to be halted and the halting of sales of stocks for all Russian oligarch companies as well as the halting of all Sovereign fund bonds as well as Russian company bonds sales.
    I've said from the start that the response should be multilateral, economic, and graduated, so we're not so far off being on the same page there. I try not to suggest specific economic sanctions, because I don't have the access to detailed data or the number crunching expertise to determine the cost/benefit relations of specific possibilities. If it were up to me I'd have had a team of experts on the Russian economy serving up lists of possibilities with projected impacts for each. I assume that this has been done.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Then the red line is seriously stated to Putin.
    Which specific red line do you mean?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Only when he clearly sees the financial abyss will he pull back as he cannot regardless of how much propaganda he throws at the Russian population ---there are way to many of the middle class that sees , hears, and understands the west from their many trips/vacations and they fully understand the propaganda---Putin has totally established a dictatorship using "legal democratic" means and they are now afraid to say anything out of fear of landing in prison. Just listen to the voices of the young Russian generation that is here in Berlin in large numbers---anti Putin to a person--but then totally nationalist Russians in their love of their country. There is the disconnect.

    Remember what drove them in 1994---the realization that there was another economic developmental/growth model out they and they knew they wanted a part of it. Yes the average yearly income of 7K has been risen to 14K but it has been on the credit pump from the west and there still is no real serious internal development that can sustain Russia when the raw resource turn down---then what? Remember Russia is still the same old Soviet style state capitalism just with "former communist" now "democratic" oligarchs.

    Just look at the food sanctions ban--it did not really hurt the west---actually Europeans were startled by his remarks as they know it will hit the Russian consumer far harder---but Putin needs to drive his population backwards in order to survive the isolation that is now there---the problem is and he totally forgot--Russia is tied to the globalized world thus cannot drift back into economic isolation without truly damaging his own economy for the next 20 years.

    Putin is struggling to get reelected nothing more nothing less and if it means crossing with little green men into the Ukraine in the end he will do it---the question is just how hard will the west push back on against a ethnic national imperialist bent on reestablishing the Russian Empire?
    I find it interesting that you say "Putin has totally established a dictatorship" and a few paragraphs later "Putin is struggling to get reelected". That seems to be a bit of a disconnect; can you explain?

    I agree that Putin has backed himself into a corner: his proxies are failing despite very overt support, and now all his options are bad. This is a common problem in proxy war, as the US well knows: if your proxies can't do the job you're left without good options.

    The question now is how to get him to take the bad option we prefer: not invading. Economic threats are part of that. So is undercutting the pretext: the last thing we need right now is a bunch of dead ethnic Russian civilians.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    He has already crossed two serious red lines and that has been signaled to him a large number of times and yet he does not respond---and all AP wants to do is what----to negotiate?
    AP will have to respond to that; as I said before I don't see much point in negotiating without a solid supply of carrots and sticks at hand. The question is what the most effective carrots and sticks would be, and how and when they should be deployed.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 08-10-2014 at 01:59 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond
    American Pride, wellcome to SWJ Exclusive Club of KGB mouthpieces. I'll send you cookies, on occasion
    I like shortbread cookies. Or... do cookies choose me?

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    Georgia is not the Ukraine and Russia knows that---why ----to cross over would provoke far more serious sanctions on their gas industry.
    Then why in other posts do you hype a threat of imminent Russian invasion?

    Quote Originally Posted by outlaw
    By the way AP did you notice that absolutely no ongoing negotiations on any topic has gone anywhere? Wonder why?
    Not in public, at least. At some point, Washington and Moscow (and the EU) will sort out the details at the negotiating table. It's not a matter of "if" but of "when" and under what conditions. I'm not against the U.S. increasing it's leverage prior to negotiations through diplomatic and economic maneuvering - that's par for the course. Anyway, the long view is a political settlement. There will not be a perpetual conflict in Ukraine (or with Russia).

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA
    Look up 'Antonio Negri' and see where he is coming from.
    Negri's work is fundamentally a critique of neoliberal capitalism - I'm not a neo-liberal myself - but his ideology departs from a nationally-centered position. Frankly - my concern is chiefly with American interests; not with Ukrainian, or Russian, or South African. Internationalism is a strategy not an end-state.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    American Pride, wellcome to SWJ Exclusive Club of KGB mouthpieces. I'll send you cookies, on occasion



    Outright lie and complete BS, as usual. It takes few weeks perhaps, before retail prices start to rise.
    were you yesterday at the local markets in Moscow---products that are now on the Russian food bans have either been pulled so the merchant can get a higher price in the coming two weeks or they were totally purchased by a single consumer--or what I call Russian hording.

    Foods on the ban have now been stopped on the Belarus border to Russia and turned back---these were not storage articles but articles destined to go straight into markets for sale.

    If you had been shopping yesterday and actually the second day after the food bans were ordered by Putin actually some prices were raised higher than 45%.

    Get out there and shop and check for yourself and stop making comments you yourself cannot back up.

    I hope you are not still spinning the tale that the Putin food bans will hurt the West---come on comrade in some areas Russia imports over 50% of a product because they have a poor and failing food production state run system from the SU days---oh sorry I meant to say an oligarch owned state system.

    still awaiting your answer as to where those "zealous Christians" took the 36 bodies that you yourself as an expert claimed went to Donetsk.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...y.html?hpid=z2
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-12-2014 at 09:15 PM. Reason: Edited slightly or completly by Moderator to enable thread to be reopened

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    I like shortbread cookies. Or... do cookies choose me?



    Then why in other posts do you hype a threat of imminent Russian invasion?



    Not in public, at least. At some point, Washington and Moscow (and the EU) will sort out the details at the negotiating table. It's not a matter of "if" but of "when" and under what conditions. I'm not against the U.S. increasing it's leverage prior to negotiations through diplomatic and economic maneuvering - that's par for the course. Anyway, the long view is a political settlement. There will not be a perpetual conflict in Ukraine (or with Russia).



    Negri's work is fundamentally a critique of neoliberal capitalism - I'm not a neo-liberal myself - but his ideology departs from a nationally-centered position. Frankly - my concern is chiefly with American interests; not with Ukrainian, or Russian, or South African. Internationalism is a strategy not an end-state.
    AP---I hype it because in fact and most of the time you seem to not read---Russian GRU/FSB/SF and two Airborne BNs have in fact crossed over in the night of 16 to 17 July so it is not a question of when or how---it is a question on just how many are already across.

    So based on your holding onto the mistaken belief that negotiations will occur---do you mind telling us when because from where I sit yes they will occur- but maybe in 1-3 years and yes the Ukraine internal fighting will continue even if Russia does not formally cross as that is the way of proxy wars but since you never fought in one then that must explain your avid holding onto negotiations as the answer.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-10-2014 at 08:10 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I do read most of the posts, though given the sheer volume and occasional incoherence it's always possible to miss something. I've seen little or nothing that indicates a specific suggestion. From JMA the closest I saw was a presumably facetious recommendation that the Ukraine be provided with nuclear weapons.



    I've said from the start that the response should be multilateral, economic, and graduated, so we're not so far off being on the same page there. I try not to suggest specific economic sanctions, because I don't have the access to detailed data or the number crunching expertise to determine the cost/benefit relations of specific possibilities. If it were up to me I'd have had a team of experts on the Russian economy serving up lists of possibilities with projected impacts for each. I assume that this has been done.



    Which specific red line do you mean?



    I find it interesting that you say "Putin has totally established a dictatorship" and a few paragraphs later "Putin is struggling to get reelected". That seems to be a bit of a disconnect; can you explain?

    I agree that Putin has backed himself into a corner: his proxies are failing despite very overt support, and now all his options are bad. This is a common problem in proxy war, as the US well knows: if your proxies can't do the job you're left without good options.

    The question now is how to get him to take the bad option we prefer: not invading. Economic threats are part of that. So is undercutting the pretext: the last thing we need right now is a bunch of dead ethnic Russian civilians.



    AP will have to respond to that; as I said before I don't see much point in negotiating without a solid supply of carrots and sticks at hand. The question is what the most effective carrots and sticks would be, and how and when they should be deployed.
    Dayuhan--you need more actual physical interaction on a daily basis with Russian politicians and military and you then would understand that yes in fact he has established an authoritarian rule quasi a dictatorship actually more like the head of multinational corporation as Russia is made up of 4 distinct ruling elites.

    Russia the former SU has a pendent to holding onto legal documents as if they somehow justify and grant that country or person "legal rights"---go back and reread all Russian comments especially Russian FM comments and count the number of times they mention that certain agreements, treaties, actions are in their view illegal---that goes to the concept that "the shine of legality" gives them their power--that is until that agreement, memo, treaty blocks them then they will totally ignore the fact they are in violation of the very agreements they signed.

    Actually that should not surprise anyone as that was the core statement that Stalin told a high ranking Communist Party meeting in 1939.

    Go back and reread Putin's Duma comments and his press conferences and list the arguments he states he considers the West having violated as his reasoning for moving into the Crimea and eastern Ukraine---it is in the public domain to be read by all---although some commenters here tend to not do that often enough.

    Here is one of those statements---NATO has violated the agreements with Russia on the expansion into the bordering countries next to Russia---actually count the number of times that has been stated by both the Russian FM and Putin himself---then actually do the research and try to find that signed agreement---there exists none---it was a conversation between Gorbi and Bush that was not followed up on and signed into agreements---now explain to me just how an "agreement" is considered an agreement if verbal---and yes I know in some countries a verbal agreement can and is often considered a legal contract. The closest thing to an agreement that Putin loves referencing was the German Reunification Agreements 4 plus 2 and even Russian FM and Putin state them differently to the world than what is written in them---again cognitive dissonance.

    I have dealt with Russian officers in 2012 and 2013--if you misused one word or sentence you could find yourself later arguing over that word or sentence as they will hold it in your face and blatantly state---this is what you said so it was agreed to but attempt to find it in the hand written recorded statements and the running video.

    This is a major problem when dealing officially with Russian government officials---this cognitive dissonance penetrates into even the lowest ranking Russian officer or government official.

    These "legal documents" grant them the cover and yes even a "democratically "appearing election however rigged is considered "legality" to the ruler ie Putin as he can say to the west see I am supported by 98% of the population so therefore you must deal with me the ruler of Russia not the political parties. this was if you noticed the argument on the Crimea elections--Dayuhan notice the trend--it is always there and when AP claims that negotiations are the way forward then he knows nothing on how to counter cognitive dissonance. That is why he is so set on getting reelected ---it gives him the appearance of "legality"--outside of his ego thing he has going for him.

    I have stated here a number of times--this type of thinking often leads authoritarian leaders to believe their own propaganda and often that leads them into an altered state of reality which by the way Putin is in if you view his food ban decision in the light of cognitive dissonance--ie the belief that somehow this great milk and beef producing machine in Russian can replace overnight imports of upwards and depending on product 63% ---and that overnight ---and again "without" hurting the Russian consumer as that is what he told his population.

    Remember even a population can be affected by cognitive dissonance if the propaganda begins to be believed as the "truth" as it must be "true" as our "democratically elected" leaders are the ones telling us.

    In opposition to AP---we do not need negotiations right now we need a team of psychologists to talk to Putin as they are about the only ones capable of understanding this cognitive dissonance of his.

    IMO that is why right now no western leader --not even Merkel is not getting through to Putin--they have no earthly idea how to deal with cognitive dissonance at the leadership levels as western leaders tend to work in the realm of logic and rational though processes---not the emotional world that causes decisions to sometimes go left instead of the intended right which Putin finds himself in right now in eastern Ukraine.

    There though is one who fully understands Putin and has actually out maneuvered him---the current Ukrainian President.

    It might sound racist but is not meant to be--it takes a Slav to understand a Slav.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-10-2014 at 08:51 AM.

  18. #198
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    The economic question is of course intertwined with the political one as we have seen all too clearly in those last weeks and months but I think we should still focus on the former aspect.

    ----


    Top Suppliers Of Food To Russia (2013). Brazil is surprisingly high up there, maybe animal feed is included? I will check later.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  19. #199
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    One consumer visited shop with higher price range "Seventh continet" in Moscow and took some photos. After comparing the view with Putin's sanctions list, he did some cutting and painting and you can see the moscovites choices on the second pic.

    http://www.the-village.ru/village/si...ka-vkusa-takoe
    Oh, gawd, you read Russian - how do you managed to mistook "Azbuka vkusa"(highest prices in Moscow, vanity shop for nouveau riche) for "Seven continent"(middle-to-high prices)?
    Next time I'll go to the nearest retail shop for lower classes and bring some photos of shelves full of Russian and unsanctioned foodstuff with a small token of grub wich fall into sanctions.


    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    I like shortbread cookies. Or... do cookies choose me?
    Yeah, Russian reversal - cookies like you
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-10-2014 at 11:12 AM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  20. #200
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    mirhond, my bad! Waiting for your pics

    Nice reading about sanctioned food products in Russian. According this survey biggest winner will be Belarus.

    http://ttolk.ru/?p=21312

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