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Thread: Syria in 2017 (April-December)

  1. #341
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    REThe fact that the U.S. is now unconcerned with the optics of appearing to provide CAS for the rebels (or “terrorists” according to Damascus and Moscow)...
    It's very simple, actually: the 'terrorists' in question are forbidden from fighting Damascus and Moscow. They are fighting Daesh all the time.

    Now, feel free to make up your mind...

    The fact is that Obama’s approach was the most cost-effective...
    16 Years since 9/11, 16 years of war in Afghanistan, 16 years of war in Yemen, 14 years of war in Iraq, ... and there are still characters calling that 'cost-effective'...

    Arguably, the Vietnam War's end has produced the least fallout of any major American war, despite the loss.
    ...oh, but sure: because people like you are insistent on ignoring Vietnamese and Cambodian opinions about this 'least fallout'...

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    Ah, I see that after having been driven into hiding in the Guenser Mountains some days ago, you have cleared your calendar for some harassing fire...

    Shall I send in a Provincial Reconstruction Team or the NKVD? Decisions. Decisions...

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    Now, feel free to make up your mind...
    About what, my good man?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    16 Years since 9/11, 16 years of war in Afghanistan, 16 years of war in Yemen, 14 years of war in Iraq, ... and there are still characters calling that 'cost-effective'...
    I specifically referred to Obama's approach, not Bush's. If you have a more cost-effective plan than feel free to present it.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    ...oh, but sure: because people like you are insistent on ignoring Vietnamese and Cambodian opinions about this 'least fallout'...
    How do I ignore them? The U.S. intervention in Indochina only delayed the Communist takeover. The vast majority of U.S. and RVN kills were combatants; the same cannot be said for Ho and his fellow travelers. Perhaps there is an inverse relationship between attrition and duration of conflict?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Ah, I see that after having been driven into hiding in the Guenser Mountains some days ago, you have cleared your calendar for some harassing fire...

    Shall I send in a Provincial Reconstruction Team or the NKVD? Decisions. Decisions...



    About what, my good man?



    I specifically referred to Obama's approach, not Bush's. If you have a more cost-effective plan than feel free to present it.



    How do I ignore them? The U.S. intervention in Indochina only delayed the Communist takeover. The vast majority of U.S. and RVN kills were combatants; the same cannot be said for Ho and his fellow travelers. Perhaps there is an inverse relationship between attrition and duration of conflict?
    Ayor.....I often point this out as the major "win" for the NVA in SVN....and yes the US was out of the fighting by 1971....

    The following is of interest.....

    Number of VC and NVA killed during the entire period 3.2M
    Number of VC and NVA MIA for the entire period 1.2M

    Figures come straight from Giap in a book he released after the war....

    I personally read an intercepted handwritten COSVN Commanders letter to Giap....in a three month period in 1970 they had suffered alone 10,000 killed and missing.....BTW we captured that courier based on HUMINT...

    Now if we look at say the US MIA and KIA ....is what roughly 60K????

    So who in fact "won".....in the end?????

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    Since the start of the #Russian military campaign in #Syria, the number of Syrian refugees increased by 744.413 persons.

    RU Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu just claimed, 108.000 civilians could return to their homes due to the #RussianArmy's actions in #Syria.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-24-2017 at 09:47 AM.

  5. #345
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    BTW...not all seems to be what it really is when referring to Russian Erdogan cooperation....

    Trade war pitting Russian wheat against Turkish tomatoes escalates despite Putin-Erdogan meeting.
    https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/ar...erna-turtsiyu#

  6. #346
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    Also the "Wider Idlib De-Escalation Zone" was shelled by pro-#Assad regime artillery units today.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A556yW3rHE#…

    Pro-#Assad forces kept shelling #Daraa city with artillery & air strikes today.
    Within a "de-escalation zone".
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49ctcTLT0OM#…

    Multiple air strikes on #Syria's "Southern De-Escalation Zone" over the past hours.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd_lfZFqvQ0#
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOGSsrZk7Tw#

    The #Russian air force (Su-34) joined the #Assad air force in bombing #Daraa, located in #Syria's southern "De-Escalation Zone".
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-24-2017 at 10:11 AM.

  7. #347
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    More #Shoygu lies this morning, trying the conceal the #Assad regime #KhanShaykhun and #EastGhouta gas massacres.
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    There's a serious situation developing. Qatari sites are now blocked in UAE & Saudi Arabia
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...shed-47598847#


    Sabaq/Okaz (Saudi news) Saudi is going on a full ban/block of all Qatari media, AlJazeera, Al Watan, Qatari State news agency...etc

    All out

  9. #349
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    Russian Forces Deploy near Syria's Border with Jordan
    http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13960302001064

    TEHRAN (FNA)- Russian armored units have entered regions along the Syria-Jordan border to fortify the Syrian Army's border posts and positions and seal the borderline, Arab media outlets said.
    The sources said that a Russian Mountain Operation Brigade battalion has arrived in the Southern provinces of Dara'a and Sweida.
    The sources further added that the Russian battalion is duty bound to fortify the Syrian Army positons in the region and seal the country's border overlooking Jordan where the Syrian forces have recently gained the upper hand.##
    A military source confirmed on Sunday that a group of Russian paratroopers and special forces arrived in the Southern province of Sweida, after the US-led coalition fighter jets targeted heavily a military convoy of the Syrian pro-government forces near the town of al-Tanf at the border with Iraq.
    The source told AMN that the Russian military personnel arrived in the region to advise the Syrian government troops in Southern Syria, while also helping to deter any potential response from the US and Jordanian forces that carved a niche in Sweida and Homs provinces.
    According to some media activists, the Russian forces were planning to build a base along the Sweida province’s border with Jordan.
    Other media reports suggested that they were allegedly meant to engage the enemy forces and help the government troops capture the Iraqi border-crossing.
    Lebanese Army General Charles Abi Nader, an expert in military strategy in the Middle East, told TASS on Saturday that the United States carried out a direct military intervention in Syria to prevent the establishment of the Syrian army’s control over the border with Iraq.
    "There is no other explanation of the strike delivered by the US Air Force on the Syrian forces and units supporting them," the general said, TASS reported.
    He added that the border area in Eastern Syria, where the army units are carrying out offensive now, has major strategic importance.
    "There is the only border crossing there, through which one can get to Baghdad now, taking into consideration that the Rutbah-Ramadi road has been cleared of terrorists of the ISIL," the expert said.
    "The goal of the US is evident - to prevent the restoration of transport links between Syria and Iraq and also Iran, which is the ally of Damascus," he stressed.
    The expert noted that a similar intervention of the US Air Force occurred in September 2016 in the outskirts of Deir Ezzur. Then, the ISIL militants used the airstrike of the US aviation to seize a defensive position on the Jebel-Sarda mountain near a military airfield, which serves as a major basis of the government forces.
    As the US-led coalition headquarters reported, on May 18 the aircraft struck pro-Syrian government forces operating within the established de-confliction zone with Russia Northwest of al-Tanf. The statement claimed that these units posed a threat to the United States and its partners. Several servicemen were killed in the strike.

  10. #350
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Ayor.....I often point this out as the major "win" for the NVA in SVN....and yes the US was out of the fighting by 1971....

    The following is of interest.....

    Number of VC and NVA killed during the entire period 3.2M
    Number of VC and NVA MIA for the entire period 1.2M

    Figures come straight from Giap in a book he released after the war....

    I personally read an intercepted handwritten COSVN Commanders letter to Giap....in a three month period in 1970 they had suffered alone 10,000 killed and missing.....BTW we captured that courier based on HUMINT...

    Now if we look at say the US MIA and KIA ....is what roughly 60K????

    So who in fact "won".....in the end?????
    Outlaw,

    Firstly, you seem to be unaware that you are preaching to the choir. Perhaps German "literalism" has rubbed off on you?

    Secondly, Giap's figures are grossly inflated and I would suggest that 1.1 million NVA and NLF deaths - the mid-range estimate of Rummel and Vietnam's 1995 claim - is a more accurate number.

    Thirdly, Germany killed far more soldiers on the OstFront than it lost. Casualty ratios do not always equate to victory. The U.S. lost in Vietnam, because it failed to totally commit to a lofty goal: a strong pro-American state in South Vietnam. It could have made Vietnam ungovernable for Ho and the CPV if it had merely supported insurgencies instead.

    Lastly, the Vietnam narrative was lost by the veterans. Despite clear Soviet mass murder in Afghanistan with not even a facade of cultural sensitivity, Westerners feel that Vietnam was a blacker chapter and blame the U.S. for millions of deaths, even though this is patently false. But it does serve a generation that dodged the draft in various ways to denigrate the war they wished to avoid...
    Last edited by Azor; 05-25-2017 at 04:04 AM.

  11. #351
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Outlaw,

    Firstly, you seem to be unaware that you are preaching to the choir. Perhaps German "literalism" has rubbed off on you?

    Secondly, Giap's figures are grossly inflated and I would suggest that 1.1 million NVA and NLF deaths - the mid-range estimate of Rummel and Vietnam's 1995 claim - is a more accurate number.

    Thirdly, Germany killed far more soldiers on the OstFront than it lost. Casualty ratios do not always equate to victory. The U.S. lost in Vietnam, because it failed to totally commit to a lofty goal: a strong pro-American state in South Vietnam. It could have made Vietnam ungovernable for Ho and the CPV if it had merely supported insurgencies instead.

    Lastly, the Vietnam narrative was lost by the veterans. Despite clear Soviet mass murder in Afghanistan with not even a facade of cultural sensitivity, Westerners feel that Vietnam was a blacker chapter and blame the U.S. for millions of deaths, even though this is patently false. But it does serve a generation that dodged the draft in various ways to denigrate the war they wished to avoid...
    Azor..one thing you need to learn urgently is when the Commander of COSVN is telling Giap his loses..believe them...we did....

    US failed in VN AFTER the US Congress FAILED to continue to provide aid and weapons to SVN....end of story...

    In three days of fighting we stacked over 400 NVA bodies and were still counting....so do not believe for a moment the figures are wrong....

    I called in a B52 strike with danger close on a complete NVA regiment moving down the HCM trail.... where we stopped counting at over 900 on the move....

    After the strike...not a single person or vehicle could be found during BDA....and that went on day after day after day...

    So please do not throw at me figures from someone who was not on the ground counting bodies...and who published his thoughts in a book...ground reality rules in this case....or mix in WW2....

  12. #352
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    Kyle Orton

    @KyleWOrton
    This day 2012: the Hula massacre by the #Assad regime, a key atrocity in inciting a sectarian war out of a peaceful protest movement.

    Azor..this is what needs to be commented on not VN or WW2 or the Germans.....

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    Hama: #Assad forces are busy destroying the crops in Northern #Hama with heavy artillery today.

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    Updated #Map of Eastern #Homs and #Sham_Desert active battle fronts #Syria #Map via @Nawaroliver
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    Syria: 5 years ago #Assad forces committed the #Houla massacre. They slaughtered 108 civilians, including 34 women and 49 children.
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    Daraa: Heavy #Assad regime attacks with warplanes and artillery on #Daraa City today. Fierce clashes.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32...2577&z=16&m=b#

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    Iranian-Backed Forces Advancing to Southeast Syria despite U.S. Warning | Middle East Institute
    http://www.mei.edu/content/article/i...te-us-warning#

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    Secret Qatari-Iranian meeting held in Baghdad: report
    http://bit.ly/2rYUiAS

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    Default To OUTLAW 09

    Outlaw,

    Le Carre was not wrong in his opinion that Germans are such literalists. I will reply in-kind then, with no dark humor or attempt at objective detachment.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Azorone thing you need to learn urgently is when the Commander of COSVN is telling Giap his loses [sic]...believe them...we did....
    Yet Giap refused to repeat the admission of 500,000 NLF/NVA fatalities through 1968 when interviewed in 1990 by Karnow. An aide of Giaps later claimed that the Communists lost at least a million combatants, primarily to the U.S (Karnow, 1990). Authors of Inside the VC and the NVA suggest that Giap was inflating Communist casualties to impress the West with North Vietnams determination to win the war (Lanning and Craig, 2008).

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    US failed in VN AFTER the US Congress FAILED to continue to provide aid and weapons to SVN...end of story...
    Not exactly. How long could the South Vietnamese state have survived a combination of NVA conventional warfare lavishly supported by the Soviet Union and China on the one hand, and NLF subversion and guerrilla warfare on the other, even with U.S. materiel? Certainly U.S. airpower could have prevented a major conventional offensive by the NVA, but then Hanoi could have resorted to less conventional methods as well as expanding its IADS southward as part of a bite and hold strategy (e.g. Egypts Operation Badr in 1973). Regardless, South Vietnam was not a particularly strong state that its dependency on the U.S. was the crux of the problem. The U.S. defined victory as a strong and allied U.S. state in South Vietnam, albeit probably one that was far more liberal and democratic at the outset than was required either of South Korea or Taiwan.

    Militarily, Johnsons restrictions on the use of airpower prior to and during his ground escalation was the death knell for the U.S. effort. By the time Nixon unleashed the B-52s, Hanoi was more than ready and had had years to prepare.

    By the wars end, the U.S. had lost the hearts and minds of Americans and Westerners, despite the fact that the Communists were mass murderers and were also sectarian, targeting Catholics for some of the worst treatment. In a similar vein, note that the popular conception in the West of the Republican side of the Spanish Civil War is the idealism of the International Brigades, rather than the raping of nuns and crucifixion of priests, NKVD assassinations, and the dominant role of the Soviet Union. Properly educating people on these histories now would be akin to conducting a fair trial of the Ceausescus.

    In many respects, the Vietnam War was a U.S. own goal. It did not commit to South Vietnam the way it had to Western Europe, Taiwan and South Korea, or even the way it had to former foes Germany, Italy and Japan. The U.S. tried to accomplish with a light footprint what only a heavy bootprint would do. The former level of effort was more than enough to set Indochina ablaze (paraphrasing Churchill), and force the Communists into meting out mass murder in frustration, thereby tarnishing their reputation in the manner of Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968) and Afghanistan (1979).

    While the U.S. was busy covering up problems in Vietnam, it was busy producing corny videos of its successes. Yet these rather silly propaganda clips of South Koreans, Germans, Taiwanese and Japanese being brothers-in-arms and just like us (going for dinner and dancing), demonstrate the U.S. commitment to strong and friendly states for these diverse peoples. Interestingly, much as South Vietnam was outside the tent, so too is Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen et al.

    The U.S. presence in Europe and East Asia today is as much about alliance solidarity and deterring Sino-Russian aggression as it is about preventing the rise of hostile state and non-state threats in these regions.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    In three days of fighting we stacked over 400 NVA bodies and were still counting...so do not believe for a moment the figures are wrong...
    But how does 400 Communist bodies counted transform into 4.4 million dead and missing?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    I called in a B52 strike with danger close on a complete NVA regiment moving down the HCM trailwhere we stopped counting at over 900 on the move....

    After the strike...not a single person or vehicle could be found during BDA....and that went on day after day after day...
    Yet the B-52 was not the best tool for that sort of unconventional work. I read that on average each B-52 load dropped on the HCM trail killed three NLF/NVA personnel because of issues with accuracy, but I would have to get back to you with sourcing. The U.S. was so vexed by the Trail that it considered salting the area with fiberglass shards to irritate the skin of those who frequented it.

    In any event, the danger of the Trail to any U.S. intervention in South Vietnam was foreseen by Kennedys Brain Trust. Compare the geography of South Korea to South Vietnam and one can instantly see the tyranny at work.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    So please do not throw at me figures from someone who was not on the ground counting bodies...and who published his thoughts in a book...ground reality rules in this case....or mix in WW2....
    Well, how about we refer to Guenter Lewys work America in Vietnam (1978)? He reduced U.S. estimates of NLF/NVA deaths by 30% to account for U.S. soldiers killing civilians and then claiming that they were combatants. If Lewys figures are to be believed, the NLF/NVA only lost some 530,000 between 1955 and 1975.

    Now, if I have any issue with R.J. Rummels research, it is that he includes outliers to arrive at his middle estimates, including minimizers such as Lewy as well as maximizers. Yet his inclusion of low and high estimates provides a range which one can use to determine if a specific estimate is reasonable or unreasonable. Given that the highest estimate for NLF/NVA deaths is 1.5 million, your suggestion of 4.4 million (KIA and MIA) is utterly ridiculous.

    Any person familiar with studies on mass murder and casualties of war should be familiar with Rummels work, whether one accepts it on an unqualified basis or not. Rummels middle estimate of 1.1 million deaths is corroborated by both the Vietnamese government (1995) and the British Medical Journal (2008).

    As I recall, the Americans fled from the rooftop of the embassy in Saigon and had to push helicopters off carrier decks into the sea in order to make room for fleeing citizens and South Vietnamese refugees. Therefore, there was no opportunity for Americans to fully count the bodies on the ground or get a proper measure of the ground reality, was there?
    Last edited by Azor; 05-25-2017 at 05:08 PM.

  20. #360
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    The situation of proxy armies, under-strength local forces and stalemate on the ground in #Syria now, is like Central Europe in early 1648
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