Carl,

Taken from your long post:
That is why you base your actions upon what they are capable of doing, will be capable of doing and what they are actually doing at the moment.
I prefer to use capability + intention to make an assessment.

In the case of the PRC, let alone the South China disputes, for a long time the PRC has had the capability to exert itself - as shown in the clashes with Vietnam long ago (1979 & 1988).

From faraway it looks like intention has been lacking and for reasons unclear to me this dispute has re-appeared.

A very partial, probably Vietnamese YouTube clip:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy2ZrFphSmc