Kenya (catch all)

[carl]

Do you guys think Al Shabab is deliberately trying to provoke a religious war in Easr Africa? It seems that is what the ISIS is trying to do in Iraq. Perhaps all these groups are set on pushing until hell breaks loose.

[davidbfpo]

Do you guys think Al Shabab is deliberately trying to provoke a religious war in Easr Africa? It seems that is what the ISIS is trying to do in Iraq. Perhaps all these groups are set on pushing until hell breaks loose.

No, not a religious war, although that is topical and maybe a thought. Far more valuable is to ensure the large Somali diaspora, including refugees, many living in the Nairobi suburb of Eastleigh, shift allegiance towards them or are neutral.

Wiki shows Kenyan relious affiliation as:

Christianity 82.5% and Islam 11.1%....Some sources suggest the number of Muslims in Kenya between 35% and 45%.

According to the 1989 Kenyan census approximately 900,000 ethnic Somalis live in Kenya..from atotal polpulation of 38.6 m. Although provisional results from the 2009 census reported a much larger number of over 2.3 million Somali residents, they are believed to be inaccurate due to inconsistencies in the gathered data.The figure has consequently been nullified for an official recount.

[JMA]

This FP article is germaine to this discussion:

VOICE : Why Are Africa's Militaries So Disappointingly Bad?

... both armies have botched key domestic interventions when crises hit, exposing weaknesses that raise fundamental question marks about operational reliability.

and this:

"The West has this model of a disciplined, neutral army that stands on the sidelines, independent of domestic politics," explains Jakkie Cilliers of the Pretoria-based Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS). "But the African model is of a military that is used internally and is part and parcel of domestic politics and resource allocation."

The question really revolves arround what military operations are possible within the capabilities of the respective armies.

(This post has also been made in the Nigerian thread)

[JMA]

l-Shabab claims new deadly attack in Kenya

Al-Shabab fighters have killed at least 15 people in a second night of attacks on Kenya's coast, barely 24 hours after an attack near the coastal town Mpeketoni left at least 48 people dead, according to Kenya's interior minister.

However, a spokesman of the Somalia-based armed group claimed on Monday to have killed 20 people, mostly security officers, in the overnight attack on Poromoko, a village located between the city of Mombasa and the Kenyan border.

Kenya attacks: 'Women abducted' near Mpeketoni

At least 12 women were abducted during the latest attack on Kenya's coast, which also left 15 people dead, residents have told...

and again - similar as in Nigeria:

President Kenyatta said ... the police in Mpeketoni were given advance intelligence about the attack, but did not act on it.

"Accordingly, all concerned officers have been suspended and will be charged immediately in a court of law," he added.

[KingJaja]

The problem in Africa is that there are two many "second order effects". It is impossible to know "in what direction the wind will blow". A combination of tribalism, corruption, poor governance & unemployment makes for a potent brew.

The Sunday Nation can now reveal that the youth, numbering about 3,000, trained at Manyani Kenya Wildlife Society (KWS) Training School before being moved to Archer’s Post in Samburu three years ago, have now become a security nightmare for Kenyan authorities. They are the new soldiers of fortune who are spreading terror in Kenya.

A retired KDF major who is now a security expert, Mr Bashir Abdullaiah, said that the plan, though noble, was bound to fail from the start.

“The plan was good. Train Somali youths and not Kenyans to create a buffer zone between Kenya and Somalia. However, it was infiltrated by Kenyans who received this training and later filtered back into the population and back to their families. Kenya should have handled it the way Ethiopia did to the ones they trained; put them under the command of their military so that you can monitor them long after the war. These people are today roaming and killing people in parts of Kenya,” said Major (rtd) Bashir.

According to people, including religious leaders, the Sunday Nation spoke to, the youths have been used by the highest bidders in many conflicts and attacks including the recent intra-clan attacks where 20 people were killed in Wajir on Monday.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Abandon...z/-/index.html

[AdamG]

Lamu, Kenya: A driver who claims he was hijacked by the gunmen behind last month's killings in Mpeketoni has been charged with killing 12 of the victims. It was a dramatic reversal of fortunes for Diana Salim Suleiman when he was hauled before a judge in a Mombasa Court yesterday to plead to 12 murder charges as his lawyers protested that the prosecution was trying an innocent man. Following his arrest, Diana has maintained that he was hijacked on June 15 by gunmen posing as passengers on the Malindi-Lamu Road, who forced him to drive to Kipini, Lamu County. He claims he was beaten by his captors who robbed him of his matatu and abandoned him in the bush.

Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/theco...2-in-mpeketoni

[davidbfpo]

Africa works in different ways. A detailed report and explanation for the inter-communal, heavily armed cattle rustling in the Northern Frontier District:http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news...m/-/index.html

[Red Rat]

Do you guys think Al Shabab is deliberately trying to provoke a religious war in Easr Africa? It seems that is what the ISIS is trying to do in Iraq. Perhaps all these groups are set on pushing until hell breaks loose.

There are definitely ethnic tensions on the ground. Predominantly caused by the growth and expansion of the Kikuyu away from their traditional tribal areas, including their move to areas of East Kenya. This move is perceived within Kenya as partly driven by a desire to load constituencies in favour of Kenyatta for the next election.

Governor Timamy of Lamu County who was arrested in relation to the attacks is an ethnic Bajuni and the BBC report (below) gives some good background. My sources concur with:

"Most of the people killed in the attacks were ethnic Kikuyus. Mr Timamy is an ethnic Bajuni, an indigenous group from Lamu County. Many of the native communities have had long-standing differences with members of the Kikuyu community, who they say came to the area and "took over their land"."

BBC World Kenya Attacks Report

The current spat with the UK over military training in Kenya is also seen as being closely linked to Kenyatta protecting his Kikuyu constituency and their links with the Khat trade.