Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[Firn]

One can certainly see part of the point the Guardian makes about the Tuareg/Moor/Arab groups and the Mali army. As I have written before two major ethnic groups seem to dominate in the northern provinces.

Mali's population consists of diverse Sub-Saharan ethnic groups, sharing similar historic, cultural, and religious traditions. Exceptions are two nomadic northern groups, the Tuaregs, a Berber people, and Maurs (or Moors), of Arabo-Berber origins. The Tuaregs traditionally have opposed the central government. Starting in June 1990 in the north, Tuaregs seeking greater autonomy led to clashes with the military. In April 1992, the government and most opposing factions signed a pact to end the fighting and restore stability in the north. Its major aims are to allow greater autonomy to the north and increase government resource allocation to what has been a traditionally impoverished region. The peace agreement was celebrated in 1996 in Timbuktu during an official and highly publicized ceremony called "Flamme de la Paix"--(peace flame).

Historically, interethnic relations throughout the rest of the country were facilitated by easy mobility on the Niger River and across the country's vast savannahs. Each ethnic group was traditionally tied to a specific occupation, all working within proximity to each other, although the distinctions were often blurred. The Bambara, Malink, Sarakole, Dogon and Songhay are farmers; the Fula or Fulani, Maur, and Tuareg are herders, while the Bozo are fishers. In recent years, this linkage has shifted considerably, as ethnic groups seek diverse, nontraditional sources of income.

Ethnic groups: Mande 50% (Bambara, Malinke, Soninke), Fula[5] 17%, Voltaic 12%, Songhai 6%, Tuareg and Moor 10%, other 5%

The Songhai seem to be farmers and should be thus mostly be settled in the souther areas of the northern provinces, along the riverbeds and lakes, especially of course along the great Niger. Ok, this ethnic map ( from the African Art Virtual Gallery ) seems to give a general idea of the situation. Note that quite some of the recent fighting took place in the traditional homeland of the Songhai, in areas where relative little Tuareg live. (Both Songhay and Songhai seem to be valid).



From the Guardian:

Even if the Malian and Ecowas troops manage to march in and recapture most of the major cities in the north, they're likely to find their enemy strangely invisible. The local youth who have been fighting for one or other of the Islamist katibat or cells will no doubt stash their Kalashnikovs, khaki robes and ammo pouches and don the uniform of the local inhabitants; a civilian robe and a turban that covers the head and face, leaving only the eyes exposed. A junior army officer from Lagos, Cotonou or even Bamako will find it very hard to tell the Islamist apart from the innocent native city-dweller or nomad. Local informants will offer their services and summary executions and brutality against both the guilty and the innocent will ensue. Anger against "white" northerners - Tuareg, Arab and Fulani – that has been brewing among southern black Malians and the darker skinned northerners such as the Songhoi is likely to spill over into racial and ethnic violence. Vigilante groups, such as the feared Songhoi militia, the Ganda Izo, are ready to roar into action with their machetes and petrol cans. Human rights organisations will have to work overtime.

This linguistic map ( from the Fragile states center) shows a similar picture in the specific area:



It is of course of great importance to partly ignore the state borders, especially under the present circumstances, Afghanistan docet. The raid in Algeria was certain not needed to give further prove of that.

Guardian:

This is the land where the local Tuareg or Arab in his souped-up turbo 4x4 is king. Iyad Ag Ghali, the Tuareg leader of the Salafist Ansar Dine militia, is a master of the kind of hit-and-run guerrilla warfare that suits the desert conditions and the sheer size of territory, roughly equal to that of Spain. His mujahideen showed their verve last Sunday by capturing the small town of Diabaly, north of Mopti, with a lightening strike that originated over the border in Mauritania. This ability to crisscross borders is another important aspect of the Islamists' Houdini-esque style of combat.

In this case it was a raid out of the traditional Moorish homeland (in Mauritania) into a Southern/Central region of Mali populated by quite different ethnic and linguistic groups. With a vast area of relatively speedily crossed terrain and a rather ineffective army it is no surprise that small organized forces with enough pickups and fuel can mount such strikes.

[ganulv]

Note that quite some of the recent fighting took place in the traditional homeland of the Songhai, in areas where relative little Tuareg live.

Northern Songhay languages show clear historical influence from Tuareg, though, so there is a longstanding history of interaction. (Mostly unrelated note: one of my favorite ethnographies is set amongst the Songhay.)

[Firn]

Northern Songhay languages show clear historical influence from Tuareg, though, so there is a longstanding history of interaction. (Mostly unrelated note: one of my favorite ethnographies is set amongst the Songhay.)

Nice catch. It is rather obvious considering history and geography that there has been much interaction between both, interesting to see part of it imprinted into the language of one ethnic. And of course it is rather clear that this doesn't mean that there isn't conflict between them, as time shows us. The strong French impact on good old Saxon Anglish didn't result in an ever peaceful coexistence....

There must have certainly a fair bit of trading between the relative fertile and densely populated regions around the Niger and the cultures on the southern coasts of our mare nostrum, mostly done by the nomadic tribes like the Tuareg. If you look at the maps it is rather obvious that the vast desert areas are quite foreign to the 'dark-skinned' (All is relative, considering that in the dear USA fellow countrymen were sometimes not considered 'white' enough). I wonder which part played the spread of Islam.

As usual the history is quite interesting. It always amazes me that people tend to imprint the current human borders on older ones. People move, people stay, nothing remains the same.

[davidbfpo]

A cautious IISS Strategic Comment, that ends:

There is no short-term fix to these problems. Mali's security forces are institutionally weak and have limited capabilities. Continuing operations in the manner France has thus far pursued will be dependent on French forces' ability to degrade the rebels' military capacity; the ability of an effective core of Mali's troops to regroup relatively quickly; the timetable to train and equip new troops in the midst of conflict; and the capacity of AFISMA military personnel to engage rebel groups alongside their Malian counterparts. Otherwise it is possible that French military operations might be of longer duration than currently envisaged. Even if AFISMA forces are able to deploy in strength, wider international involvement will likely remain vital in the areas of organisational, intelligence and logistics support, as well as financing.

Link to article:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...apid-reaction/ and link to Table on French Forces deployed:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...eaction/table/

[KingJaja]

Nigerian Army arrives Bamako. They seem better equipped and hopefully, better prepared than the bunch that went into Sierra Leone / Liberia.

[Fuchs]

This is the land where the local Tuareg or Arab in his souped-up turbo 4x4 is king. Iyad Ag Ghali, the Tuareg leader of the Salafist Ansar Dine militia, is a master of the kind of hit-and-run guerrilla warfare that suits the desert conditions and the sheer size of territory, roughly equal to that of Spain. His mujahideen showed their verve last Sunday by capturing the small town of Diabaly, north of Mopti, with a lightening strike that originated over the border in Mauritania. This ability to crisscross borders is another important aspect of the Islamists' Houdini-esque style of combat.

Sounds like LRDG to me.

The West Saharan rebels did similar raids.

[davidbfpo]

The Daily Telegraph has a laudatory article on the RAF C-17s supporting the French, despite the fact one broke down upon arrival in France:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...Islamists.html

Within the article is this gem, the real heavy lift comes from private Russian / Ukrainian companies, familiar to many in "hot spots":

Last Thursday seven Antonov aircraft – one of the world’s largest transport planes – arrived crammed with weapons, ammunition and armoured vehicles

[Surferbeetle]

Hat tip to a "lurker"

Algeria shows we need a new approach to terrorism, By Roula Khalaf, January 18, 2013 7:20 pm, Financial Times, www.ft.com

Spectacular terrorist attacks; talk of a “war on terror”; pre-emptive military action in faraway, politically unstable places. As the world watches the resurgence of jihadi activity, and in particular the unfolding of the hostage crisis at a remote gas complex in the Algerian desert, one could be forgiven for asking whether we ever truly made it out of the last decade.

The other important factor is the jihadis’ exploitation of the security vacuum in north Africa that followed the Arab uprising. Jihadis were panicked by the sight of millions of young Arabs demonstrating to the world not just that their grievances are with their own authoritarian regimes – not some foreign enemy – but also their commitment to non-violent struggle.

Sadly, extremists have found an opportunity for a comeback. Suspected terrorists who were in prison have been released. Dictatorial regimes and their all-powerful intelligence services have been replaced by weak authorities struggling to assert themselves.