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Thread: Syria in 2016 (January-March)

  1. #2041
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    In some aspects it is exactly the German mistake...Putin and his military somehow think that by literally flattening and turning to dust all Arab Sunni towns and villages as well as the major points held by FSA this will reduce the will of the Syrian Arab Sunni to support FSA and they will eventually cave to the Assad and Putin demands........

    It did not work against the Brits and if anything it outright failing now in Syria...AND if anything it is forcing the EU to realize that to end the refugee flows is to finally end Russian bombing BUT EU politicians and Obama have not figured out that piece of logic yet.............
    Indeed.

    Another thing that's kind of 'stunning' for me in this case: Russians have quite fresh experiences from making similar mistakes elsewhere.

    They did the same in Afghanistan; they (yes, Russians) attempted the same in Mozambique; they attempted the same in Angola; their Ethiopian protegees attempted the same in Eritrea etc..

    Except in Afghanistan, it never worked. And Afghanistan is something like the 'best example' - because it is best known, and then primarily because through their links to al-Qaida, the emerging extremists turned that one into a 'global conflict'.

    Results should be more than 'well-known', and are always the same: de-population of the country; millions or refugees; replacement of locals through foreign extremists; never-ending conflict.

    Sure, Russians claim such approach was 'successful in pacifying Chechnya'. Many are more than happy to agree. Ask around a lil' bit, and quite a few are going to tell you, 'that's the way one should fight al-Qaida'.

    But, what is reality? Chechnya was de-populated too, and what is left is run by a maffia-style gang of opportunists that made 'peace' with Putler. OK, no foreign extremists came in instead. But there are plenty of refugees. The conflict spilled over into neighbouring Russian states, or even further abroad (yup, all the way to Syria). And foremost: it's another 'never-ending conflict'.

    Any at least semi-serious military students, certainly all the professional intel blokes, should be aware of this. In theory, their job would be to warn the politicians about this.

    But, no: nothing of this is the case.

    In some way the Islamic religion gives the Arab Sunni a certain stubbornness to resist just about anything and still fight...
    I haven't been to Syria since nearly 10 years, so it could be that some things have changed. But, from what I get to hear from my sources there: they didn't.

    Correspondingly: it's not the religion. Religion is helping them a lot, but it's different: 'diehard' Syrian Sunnis are not turning extremists. I would in their place under given circumstances, and - no doubt: others are turning extremists (see the Shi'a and Sunnis in Iraq) - but they do not.

    It's rather a similar kind of stuborness - like that of genuine Afghans.

    Tragically, these were meanwhile overrun by foreign extremists: let's hope it's still not too late to prevent this from happening in Syria.

  2. #2042
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    Russian media confirms the Russian MoD "free fire zone" map......not so sure the HNC/FSA is going to agree to this and YE no response from Obama and Kerry.

    Awaiting to see how Turkey and Saudi's take it as well..probably reject it.....

    Yury Barmin @yurybarmin
    Russian media publish the map of the ceasefire in Syria. Only 6 tiny areas (yellow) are covered by the agreement

    pic.twitter.com/ze164Pbhz4

    Syria #Quneitra Rebels shelling Tell Ayub with heavy artillery
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JavEvX0OQTs
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMD0LVl8Vqg
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33...59024&z=14&m=b

    "What would they have done without us?" Russia's MOD says of CIA, Pentagon.
    https://twitter.com/mod_russia/statu...79615426519040
    WELL for one far fewer civilians being deliberately killed , 28 hospitals being destroyed and 27 school destroyed and far fewer refugees...that is all.....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 01:03 PM.

  3. #2043
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    If confirmed then things are going to get nasty in a big hurry.....ESPECIALLY if the jet was inside Turkish air space...although Russia has stated there is no such thing as NATO air space....

    Unconfirmed reports claim either a Russian drone or Turkish fighter jet shot down near Syrian border.

    Rumours spread that a Turkish jet shot down in Hatay near Syrian border. Locals report huge explosion followed by intense jet activity.

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    Syria: Rebels claim killed 75 #Iran lead Shiite fighters (#Hazara from #Afghanistan) in western #Aleppo today
    pic.twitter.com/ykuH5LpMYv

    FSA Soqur al-Jabal destroy two Assad army pick-ups west #Aleppo
    https://youtu.be/NSbbYazcx9I
    https://youtu.be/pMw5Yz8JShM
    pic.twitter.com/RnOxcOguHx
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 01:51 PM.

  5. #2045
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    If confirmed then things are going to get nasty in a big hurry.....ESPECIALLY if the jet was inside Turkish air space...although Russia has stated there is no such thing as NATO air space....

    Unconfirmed reports claim either a Russian drone or Turkish fighter jet shot down near Syrian border.

    Rumours spread that a Turkish jet shot down in Hatay near Syrian border. Locals report huge explosion followed by intense jet activity.
    News
    Despite a denial by the Turkish general staff, reports of a downed drone near Yayladağı keep coming.
    pic.twitter.com/l23ix1jeHS

    Unconfirmed
    Picture claiming to show "damaged" Russian Su-25 near the Turkish-Syrian border over #Latakia.
    I doubt it!
    pic.twitter.com/UjBuTMFCW5

    Regime SUV hit with TOW.....
    a pick up loaded with ammo
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMw5Yz8JShM

    Syria Rebels blow up excavator in Bashimra in western #Aleppo with TOW
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb4gnGhBpp0
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...78221&z=15&m=b

  6. #2046
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    News
    Despite a denial by the Turkish general staff, reports of a downed drone near Yayladağı keep coming.
    pic.twitter.com/l23ix1jeHS

    Unconfirmed
    Picture claiming to show "damaged" Russian Su-25 near the Turkish-Syrian border over #Latakia.
    I doubt it!
    pic.twitter.com/UjBuTMFCW5
    Breaking
    Something is definitely happening in the air across the Turkish-Syrian border in #Hatay / #Latakia.


  7. #2047
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    If confirmed then things are going to get nasty in a big hurry.....ESPECIALLY if the jet was inside Turkish air space...although Russia has stated there is no such thing as NATO air space....

    Unconfirmed reports claim either a Russian drone or Turkish fighter jet shot down near Syrian border.

    Rumours spread that a Turkish jet shot down in Hatay near Syrian border. Locals report huge explosion followed by intense jet activity.
    Preliminary reports indicate the following:
    - either Assadist or Russian artillery shelled Kislak village in Hatay Province of Turkey;
    - a UAV then violated Turkish airspace, and was promptly shot down;
    - 3 F-16s were scrambled from Diyabakir AB, but it's unclear in reaction to what - that UAV, or activity of Assadist/Russian bombers near the border.

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    Syria Thousands flee new battlefield in NW-#Aleppo after heavy #Russia'n airstrikes &(failed) regime ground assaulthttp://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...35863&z=13&m=b

    Syria'n & regime & #Russia conducted 120+ airstrikes today- hours before the start of the cease-fire

    Syria #Russia'n plane guided by fighter jets above northern #Homs
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHjinlyS_jw

    Iran sending more Shiite #Hazara from #Afghanistan to death in
    #Syria'n war (#Aleppo)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZwH...ature=youtu.be

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    massacre in #darat_ezza
    dozens children killed by #russia airstrikes
    #aleppo cs #syria feb 26

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    Preliminary reports indicate the following:
    - either Assadist or Russian artillery shelled Kislak village in Hatay Province of Turkey;
    - a UAV then violated Turkish airspace, and was promptly shot down;
    - 3 F-16s were scrambled from Diyabakir AB, but it's unclear in reaction to what - that UAV, or activity of Assadist/Russian bombers near the border.
    CrowBat...you are definitely quicker than I am....

    SAA rockets fell in Kıslak village at Yayladagi town, Haytay (Turkey - Syria) border. Reports as well about Drone downed in the same area.

  11. #2051
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    This has got to be the funniest Russian FM statement in literally years of their lying.....21 tons got lost during a Russian contracted air drop and or was totally damaged and nothing has been confirmed delievered to any of the besieged Sunni tonws and or villages YET they stated the following.

    Not even a confirmation from the US DoS that stated seven deliveries were on their way and that was four days ago......


    MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
    #Lavrov: There has been significant and widely acknowledged progress in the delivery of humanitarian aid to the population in need


    They really must be on "laughing gas"....but hey they believe it to be true.....

    ALL I have seen of that so called Russian humanitarian aid is a whole lot of Syrians dodging or getting killed by Russian bombs....in the last four days.....

  12. #2052
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    This has got to be the funniest Russian FM statement in literally years of their lying.....21 tons got lost during a Russian contracted air drop and or was totally damaged and nothing has been confirmed delievered to any of the besieged Sunni tonws and or villages YET they stated the following.

    Not even a confirmation from the US DoS that stated seven deliveries were on their way and that was four days ago......


    MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
    #Lavrov: There has been significant and widely acknowledged progress in the delivery of humanitarian aid to the population in need


    They really must be on "laughing gas"....but hey they believe it to be true.....

    ALL I have seen of that so called Russian humanitarian aid is a whole lot of Syrians dodging or getting killed by Russian bombs....in the last four days.....
    Even more Russian FM "laughing gas" statements.....

    SYRIAN CONFLICT: #Russia says #Syria ceasefire process underway despite US sabotage attempts.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mi...-idUSKCN0VY1LR

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    DOD SPOX: We will continue to disagree with Turkey over our support of the Syrian Kurds
    http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Tra...tz_myI.twitter

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    BTW... since we (well, at least you Outlaw and me) are wondering where is the JAN going...

    After asking around a lil bit, it turns out there is quite a big concentration of JAN - or allied - units in southern Aleppo. That is: west of Khan Nassir, where the Daesh recently cut off the regime's supply links (according to regime-fans, these were re-established this morning, i.e. Daesh forced to withdraw; but, this remains unconfirmed).

    Namely, west of Khan Nassir there should be the following JAN, JAN-allied, or defected-from-JAN Jihadist gangs:
    - Jund al-Aqsa (well-known Chechen group)
    - Harakat Fajr ash-Sham al-Islamiya (Salafists-cum-Wahhabists from Aleppo; together with Moroccans from Harakat Sham al-Islam, this gang is part of the Jabhat Ansar ad-Din, which is allied with the JAN)
    - Quwwat al-Qawqaz (Chechens, Daghestanis etc., part of the JAN)
    - Hizbi al-Islami at-Turkistani (Turkistan Islamic Party; something like 'al-Qaida from China', and allied with the JAN).

    So, no 'insurgents/rebels' but only 'Jihadists' there, and then quite a concentration of them.

    Of course, none were bombed by Russians so far: there are no civilians left in this area to bomb. There are only few plantages and scattered villages...

    Anyway, this means two things:
    - Jund missed an opportunity to link-up with Daesh. Reason: unknown.
    - There's a significant concentration of some of most hard-core JAN groups there... should that be an indication the JAN is withdrawing into this part of Syria?

    If so, why there?

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    CrowBat.....from TASS today...notice their use of term terrorist and JaI which is not on the UNSC terrorist list....no wonder there are only six small areas they will not air strike...they redefined the UNSC terrorist list as they wanted to........an Obama and Kerry said not a single word.....

    http://tass.ru/en/world/859098

    DAMASCUS, February 26. /TASS/. Damascus hopes that the reconciliatory process between the government and the armed opposition will lay the basis for future development of national dialogue in the country, Syrian presidential adviser on national accord Ahmad Mohammad told Russian journalists on Friday.

    "Despite the fact that ceasefire is officially in force on the whole territory of Syria, several regions are controlled by groups that somehow prevent citizens from joining the ceasefire regime. However, we hope that local ceasefires will help start national inter-Syrian dialogue," Mohammad said.

    Attempts to agree on ceasefire are made across the country, he noted. "We already have results. Relevant agreements were signed in settlements in provinces of Latakia, Homs, Daraa, as well as in several settlements near Damascus," the advisor added.

    On several occasions, armed opposition groups not only agreed on ceasefire but also joined the government army in fighting against terrorist groups recognized as such by the UN Security Council, Mohammad said noting that Syrian authorities will not hold negotiations with such groups.

    "This, for example, happened in Aleppo when the opposition united with government forces and fought against IS (Islamic State terrorist organization), Jebhat al-Nusra, Jeysh al-Islam and other extremist groups," he went on.

    "I want to remind that our ministry (of national accord) was set up precisely for uniting Syrian people and giving a chance to those who made a mistake to return under the protection of the state," he added.

    Another task of the ministry of national accord is to bring refugees back home, Mohammad noted. "This is another serious problem for our country. According to different estimates, more than four million people have left Syria since the war started. However, the military has recently freed dozens of settlements, and people have started returning home," he said.

    "We managed to achieve this - around 60,000 people have already returned as of today. We are now working to bring the number to 100,000 people," Mohammad noted.


    Efforts are currently made on the Russian initiative aimed at reaching agreement between Damascus and the opposition. The sides should launch negotiations focusing on bringing together disparate opposition forces in the face of common enemy represented by radical Islamists.

    This process was launched about two weeks ago and has already brought its first results. Thanks to Moscow’s mediating role, more and more rebel leaders are joining the ceasefire agreement that envisages ceasing military actions against the government guaranteeing the right for full-fledged participation in the political life of the country.

    Russian Defense Ministry official spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Wednesday that the coordination center on the ceasefire set up by the Russian Defense Ministry in Syria has already received over a dozen of calls. The center received about ten calls from those areas in Syria where Russian servicemen are carrying out active work, he said. Thus, the center’s staff members are working with representatives of the opposition groups in the Hama, Homs, Latakia provinces and the cities of Damascus and Daraa.

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    NOT so subtle FSA warning to Russia..........

    "One bullet on Daraya will end the ceasefire" message from Daraa - @moaazalabbas4

    pic.twitter.com/if1Gl0YZFo

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    Assad & shia militias rush to advance in Aleppo & Akrad Mount before potential ceasefire cost them 100s reportedly. https://twitter.com/NDZankiMotion/st...09131923128320

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    Obama and Kerry both waffling again and again...before Congress Kerry states a Plan B is in progress......NOW they are just talking about it......

    So far, "Plan B" is more an idea than a specific course of action and nothing has yet been agreed to"
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/26/po...ces/index.html

    Total ME FP failure and neither want to admit it.....

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    Seriously, over 200 Iranians died in Syria in the last 3 months alone, including a handful of senior officers & a Brigadier General.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    BTW... since we (well, at least you Outlaw and me) are wondering where is the JAN going...

    After asking around a lil bit, it turns out there is quite a big concentration of JAN - or allied - units in southern Aleppo. That is: west of Khan Nassir, where the Daesh recently cut off the regime's supply links (according to regime-fans, these were re-established this morning, i.e. Daesh forced to withdraw; but, this remains unconfirmed).

    Namely, west of Khan Nassir there should be the following JAN, JAN-allied, or defected-from-JAN Jihadist gangs:
    - Jund al-Aqsa (well-known Chechen group)
    - Harakat Fajr ash-Sham al-Islamiya (Salafists-cum-Wahhabists from Aleppo; together with Moroccans from Harakat Sham al-Islam, this gang is part of the Jabhat Ansar ad-Din, which is allied with the JAN)
    - Quwwat al-Qawqaz (Chechens, Daghestanis etc., part of the JAN)
    - Hizbi al-Islami at-Turkistani (Turkistan Islamic Party; something like 'al-Qaida from China', and allied with the JAN).

    So, no 'insurgents/rebels' but only 'Jihadists' there, and then quite a concentration of them.

    Of course, none were bombed by Russians so far: there are no civilians left in this area to bomb. There are only few plantages and scattered villages...

    Anyway, this means two things:
    - Jund missed an opportunity to link-up with Daesh. Reason: unknown.
    - There's a significant concentration of some of most hard-core JAN groups there... should that be an indication the JAN is withdrawing into this part of Syria?

    If so, why there?
    Makes no sense to me either unless they actually missed a linkup opportunity an are simply hoping the RuAF will ignore them and go after the FSA during the so called CoH....which it seems they will actually do using the JaN as their excuse but JaN is literally sitting in no mans land so to speak.

    BUT and here is the BUT...if little population left.....tons of places to pull back and hide forces from bombing raids.....which I have heard some chatter about.

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