Burma: catch all thread

[Ron Humphrey]

Is it possible that although Burma is not on the super priority list for us due to current circumstances, The chinese on the other hand probably pay a whole lot more attention to it considering that they have seen what that " breeding ground" problem can end up being for the bigger players. They probably don't want anything adding more fuel to the fire with some of their current areas of trouble and any free ranging in Burma of such groups would seem destined to cause them just as much pain if not more than most.

[wm]

Is it possible that although Burma is not on the super priority list for us due to current circumstances, The chinese on the other hand probably pay a whole lot more attention to it considering that they have seen what that " breeding ground" problem can end up being for the bigger players. They probably don't want anything adding more fuel to the fire with some of their current areas of trouble and any free ranging in Burma of such groups would seem destined to cause them just as much pain if not more than most.

If China pays more attention to Burma than the US does I suspect it is for the foillowing reasons:
1. Competition with India for commercial goods export to Burma;
2. Competition with Russia and India for weapons export to Burma; (I believe Burma has one of the 20 biggest armed forces in the world.)
3. Access to Burma's natural gas reserves (only 21.1 TCF according to EIA, but still worth exploiting due to proximity--by way of comparison Venezuela has 181 TCF of known NG reserves and the US has 211 TCF according to EIA)

I don't think a "basing for terrorism problem," a la Pakistan-Afghanistan, is a significant concern for the Chinese vis-a-vis Burma. The military junta seems to have a pretty firm handle on dissidence (and what it doesn't control, the opium drug lords in the Golden Triangle do I suspect). I'd be more worried about the Burmese getting sucked into a Chinese sphere of influence, thereby making the Indians worried. This could produce new tensions on the eastern side of the sub-continent to go along with those that are already in place on the western side.