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Old 10-21-2010   #1
AdamG
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Default Venezuela, Iran & others: a coalition? (New title)

Mod's Note:This thread was called: The "Newest" New World Order - a Coalition of Antagonistic Lilliputians ™ ? until 30/12/2010 and re-named for clarity as Venezuela, Iran & others: a coalition?

Maybe a call to that new kid with the funny haircut in Pyongyang.
A little innocent help from Russia, a little under-the-table help from China.
Good way to take out the Evil Empire of the Northern Hemisphere.

Quote:
TEHRAN, Iran – The leaders of Iran and Venezuela hailed what they called their strong strategic relationship on Wednesday, saying they are united in efforts to establish a "new world order" that will eliminate Western dominance over global affairs.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101021/...JhbnZlbmV6dWVs

nb : yes, it's spells out C.O.A.L. (every group of bad guys needs a single-syllable abbreviated name)
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Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-30-2010 at 07:36 PM. Reason: Add Mod's Note as thread title changed.
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Old 12-03-2010   #2
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CARACAS (Reuters) – Cuban intelligence services directly advise Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in what a U.S. diplomat called the "Axis of Mischief," according to a State Department cable released by the WikiLeaks website.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101202/...eaks_venezuela
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Old 12-05-2010   #3
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Found this while looking for something else -

Quote:
The Chinese mafia has reportedly collaborated with "Islamic terrorist groups" in the region (United States April 2003; Combined Arms Center Military Review July-August 2002). Information about their relationship with the local Paraguayan population was scarce among the sources consulted by the Research Directorate. Country Reports 2003 stated that Chinese groups had "reportedly threatened the life of Ultima Hora journalist Gustavo Garcia for investigating them" (Sec. 2).
http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/countr...f61642c,0.html
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Old 12-23-2010   #4
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Among the two most alarming revelations is the already completed sale and delivery, to Venezuela by Russia, of nearly 2,000 advanced, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles capable of hitting aircraft as high as 19,000 feet. Equally and perhaps more alarming is an October agreement between Iran and Venezuela. The agreement establishes a joint ground-to-ground missile base on Venezuelan soil and calls for the sharing of missile technology and the training of technicians and officers. In addition, Venezuela may use the missiles as it chooses for “national needs” and in case of “emergency.” Several types of missiles will be deployed, giving Venezuela the ability to strike targets throughout South and Central America and throughout the U.S.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/iran-sh...-to-venezuela/

Note scale of Venezuelan oil imports to US here
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/p...nt/import.html
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Old 12-23-2010   #5
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Iran is planning to place medium-range missiles on Venezuelan soil, based on western information sources[1], according to an article in the German daily, Die Welt, of November 25, 2010. According to the article, an agreement between the two countries was signed during the last visit o Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran on October19, 2010. The previously undisclosed contract provides for the establishment of a jointly operated military base in Venezuela, and the joint development of ground-to-ground missiles.

At a moment when NATO members found an agreement, in the recent Lisbon summit (19-20 November 2010), to develop a Missile Defence capability to protect NATO's populations and territories in Europe against ballistic missile attacks from the East (namely, Iran), Iran's counter-move consists in establishing a strategic base in the South American continent - in the United States's soft underbelly.

According to Die Welt, Venezuela has agreed to allow Iran to establish a military base manned by Iranian missile officers, soldiers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Venezuelan missile officers. In addition, Iran has given permission for the missiles to be used in case of an "emergency". In return, the agreement states that Venezuela can use these facilities for "national needs" – radically increasing the threat to neighbors like Colombia. The German daily claims that according to the agreement, Iranian Shahab 3 (range 1300-1500 km), Scud-B (285-330 km) and Scud-C (300, 500 and 700 km) will be deployed in the proposed base. It says that Iran also pledged to help Venezuela in rocket technology expertise, including intensive training of officers
http://www.hudson-ny.org/1714/iran-m...s-in-venezuela
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Old 12-23-2010   #6
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Default Cuban missile crisis - a replay further south?

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.
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Old 12-24-2010   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.
In the month since this article appeared, I've seen the peanut gallery assertions that it's mere Cold War style propaganda. So yes, let's look back to 1962...
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...article06.html
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Old 12-24-2010   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.
I hope not, we are nowhere near as prepared to survive as we were back then.
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Old 12-28-2010   #9
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Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
AdamG,Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.
.
Assuming the source was US intelligence.

Quote:
Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned Monday that Iran's ties with Venezuela posed a threat to the entire world, and in particular the United States.

"Venezuela is Iran’s advance outpost on the Latin American continent. The two countries have joined together to create an axis of conventional and nuclear terror [that threatens] not only the Middle East, but also the continent of America, and the United States in particular," Ayalon told a group of some two dozen journalists from Latin American countries.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...world-1.330419

*
Quote:
DFM Ayalon: A nuclear Iran will lead to a nuclear Venezuela right in the United States’ backyard
http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/About+the+...3_Dec_2010.htm
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Old 12-28-2010   #10
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Ok, some points to consider:
  1. LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.
  2. Currently, there is no operational Iranian missile with the reach to hit Miami from Venezuela. The Sajjil-2, which a range of 2200km, may be operational in a couple of years.
  3. It's possible Iran may develop a 3700km range missile within the next ten years. Assuming such a missile is launched from the northern-most point in Venezuela, every city in an arc from Maine to Detroit and down to San Antonio could be hit. At this point, such a missile is completely theoretical.
  4. It's important to note that the intelligence community and ballistic missile experts consistently overestimate the development timelines for foreign ballistic missiles. Politically-motivated estimates, like the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission, have an even worse track record.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon, but also a delivery vehicle of at least 3000km sometime in the next decade, which is probably optimistic. We then have to assume that Iran is willing to essentially give these rare and extremely valuable golden eggs to Venezuela and that Venezuela would be willing to accept them. In order to make this happen, both countries would have to explicitly violate a host of treaties. For example, Venezuela has ratified the Treaty of Tlatelolco.

Could it happen? Sure, anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me - a tremendous risk for both countries for little benefit.

It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.
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Old 12-29-2010   #11
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Default I agree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
...anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me...
It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.
Yes, Or wildly wishful thinking (dreaming?) on the part of the first two and and effort to get the big guy on side from the latter...

I never cease to be amazed at the dotty things that seem to get people unduly excited.
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Old 12-29-2010   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
Ok, some points to consider:
[LIST=1][*]LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon,
Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon?

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/
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Old 12-29-2010   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon?

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/
Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?

Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?

Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.

Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.
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Old 12-30-2010   #14
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Default Hugo's Chutzpah

Bad boy Hugo refuses to accept as 'Ambassador' the individual who has publicly assailed his government, and accused it of arming drug sellers in Columbia. The psuedo-Ambassador also said he would “safeguard American economic interests and investments,” should he serve in Caracas. I' m sure most host countries would welcome such advance planning.

http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/5886

On an earlier occasion, nominee Palmer had stated:
Quote:
When asked what his top areas of concern are, Palmer cited “threats to human rights and fundamental freedoms” in Venezuela, including threats to “freedom of expression and of the press, the right to own private property, and freedom of association for civil society.” He further criticized “the increasing centralization of power in the executive branch,” and President Chavez’s “explicit rejection of the separation of powers.
http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/5560

Just right for a working relationship.

The context includes some of the Wikileaks material, such as this summary of US intentions to "reassert US leadership in the region":

Quote:
Kelly, who played a primary role as "mediator" during last year's coup d'etat in Honduras against President Manuel Zelaya, classifies President Hugo Chavez as an "enemy" in his report. "Know the enemy: We have to better understand how Chavez thinks and what he intends...To effectively counter the threat he represents, we need to know better his objectives and how he intends to pursue them. This requires better intelligence in all of our countries". Further on in the memo, Kelly confesses that President Chavez is a "formidable foe", but, he adds, "he certainly can be taken.
http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/5870

Further:

Quote:
Kelly also revealed the pressure Washington has been applying to Mercosur (Market of the South) to not accept Venezuela as a full member in the regional trade bloc. "With regard to Mercosur, we should not be timid in stating that Venezuela's membership will torpedo US interest in even considering direct negotiations with the trading bloc.
Economic warfare always a crucial diplomatic effort.

Congratulations to the Obama administration for using the Foreign Service Apparatus to demonstrate continuity with little Bush.

Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-30-2010 at 11:25 AM. Reason: Use quote marks. PM to author
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Old 12-30-2010   #15
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Cool On Hugo...

President Chavez has so much hate for the U.S. that he has placed blinders on the range of possibiltities that could actually benefit Veenzuaelans and the people of South America. I submit the following "What ifs" for consideration and debate:

What if: the U.S. and Cuba expanded diplomatic relations and sought a cooperative agreement to promote stability in the Western Hemisphere through collaboration and unity of vision? How could that shape the future security of the Western Hemisphere??? If the two ideological competitors in the Western Hemisphere finally dropped the rhetoric and pushed for the benefit of its citizens... What if???

What if: Hugo Chavez realized that Islamists are "BAD" and that the Islamists (I.E. Iran) are just using him to gain access to the U.S. Although the U.S. has its faults (y suele de sulfur), it is really the best thing going... (author's prejudice). What if???

What if: Hugo worked to capitalize on NAFTA and expand the benefits to South America through a cooperative economic and security agreement with the U.S. , instead of wasting Venezuelan resources to counter "U.S. Imperialists." Opening diplomatic relations could open economic opportunity and enable the "Bolivarian Movement" to provide jobs for "the people" throughout South America. If Chavez's true intention is empowering the people, then this should be a "rational" option... What if???

What if: The Wayuu tribe that converted en masse to Islam and openly welcomed Hezbollah under the auspices of the Chavez government realized that Islam is not synonymous with Islamism, rejected radical Islam (and Hezbollah) and sought to eradicate Islamists (see Bale's definition for Islamism). What if???

What if: The U.S., Cuba, and Brazil stopped using "the people" as the reason for their actions and actually worked together to actually benefit "the people" instead of their own political standing (U.S. included). Government for by the people for the people- just saying... What if???

FOSHIZZLE SENDS
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Old 12-30-2010   #16
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Default Nomination of Larry Palmer for Ambassador to Venezuela

This link has a detailed explanation of what happened with the Venezuela nomination:

http://americasquarterly.org/node/2058
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Old 12-30-2010   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?
Gotta do training, storage and logistics somewhere. The missile(s) don't care where they're launched.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?
You're assuming you need a nuke to generate a city-crippling EMP burst. I've read otherwise. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm

Quote:
Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.
Reference ship-launched ballistic /SCUD missile launches, I've read otherwise.
See http://www.missilethreat.com/scenarios/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.
You're assuming rational thought amongst our opponents. That can be fatal.
(Or, as Foamy the Squirrel said : "It wouldn't hurt you people to think like a serial killer every now and then...")
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8eICCKMNEc
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Last edited by AdamG; 12-30-2010 at 12:26 PM.
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Old 12-30-2010   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
You're assuming you need a nuke to generate a city-crippling EMP burst. I've read otherwise. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm
Theoretically yes. A lot of things are theoretically possible. Until I see some evidence that someone, especially the Iranians, are developing such a weapon then I'm not going to worry about it too much. Not only that, but why would Iran EMP a US city? Under what scenario or circumstances would the Iranians, or anyone else, use such a weapon? They burn out some electronics and then what?

Quote:
Reference ship-launched ballistic /SCUD missile launches, I've read otherwise.
See http://www.missilethreat.com/scenarios/
Has anyone, anywhere actually tried to launch a scud off a ship? This is another case of something that is possible in theory, very difficult in practice and of limited utility. This isn't a capability that could be done without testing - when I see Iran or any other nation start trying to launch ballistic missiles off of freighters, then I will begin to take this "theat" seriously.

Quote:
You're assuming rational thought amongst our opponents. That can be fatal.
(Or, as Foamy the Squirrel said : "It wouldn't hurt you people to think like a serial killer every now and then...")
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8eICCKMNEc
We had over 30 years to watch and study the current Iranian government. I don't see much there that suggests the Iranians are irrational actors.
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Old 12-30-2010   #19
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From 2008

Quote:
In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee and in remarks to a private conference on missile defense over the weekend hosted by the Claremont Institute, Dr. William Graham warned that the U.S. intelligence community “doesn’t have a story” to explain the recent Iranian tests.

One group of tests that troubled Graham, the former White House science adviser under President Ronald Reagan, were successful efforts to launch a Scud missile from a platform in the Caspian Sea.

“They’ve got [test] ranges in Iran which are more than long enough to handle Scud launches and even Shahab-3 launches,” Dr. Graham said. “Why would they be launching from the surface of the Caspian Sea? They obviously have not explained that to us.”

Another troubling group of tests involved Shahab-3 launches where the Iranians "detonated the warhead near apogee, not over the target area where the thing would eventually land, but at altitude,” Graham said. “Why would they do that?”
http://www.marketwatch.com/Community...-plans-nuclear

Iran is only half the equation, and a weak half at that - more of an enabler.
Tehran can interdict the flow of Saudi oil, and Venezuela is next up by volume on the suppliers' list.

Quote:
ANALYSIS | In a reciprocal action, the United States has revoked the visa of the Venezuelan ambassador to the United States after Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez refused to acknowledge diplomatic ties with the United States. Business Week reports this expulsion is just the latest in many bouts of political feuding between the United States and Venezuela.

Business Week reports Chavez threatened to cut off the oil supply to the United States in 2008 and then backed down. It was around the same time when he backed a Bolivian proposal to expel their American ambassador for alleging the United States' involvement with rebel groups.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20101230/...es_may_be_next
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Last edited by AdamG; 12-30-2010 at 07:45 PM.
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Old 12-31-2010   #20
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Here's the non-detailed explanation on what happened to this nomination:

America, standing tall, revoked the visa of the Venezuelan Ambassador. Har har. So is somebody's old man.

If Venezuela is to be cast as an Iranian proliferation problem (! and then some), we should be shedding yet more tears over the destruction of Valerie Plame's Iran-centric program, and the cowardly passivity of our domestic fascist coalition in response.
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