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Thread: AP: General calls for more Afghanistan troops

  1. #41
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Only reel answers provided...

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    ...To date, little analysis has been conducted on AQ's ideology and strategy.
    I think there may be more analysis than you suspect. The problem is that it's inconclusive but it is still being worked.
    ...as many others throughout time have espoused, know your enemy as you know yourself.
    Yeah, I've heard that, unfortunately or fortunately viewpoint dependent, I've discovered that one can't even know their friends as well as they know themselves, much less their enemies -- and, know what, that shortfall only complicates things a small amount. Quite small.

    I think only in books and movies is that dictum workable; on the ground, it's extremely difficult and rarely provides any insights that significantly change the course of war.

    A thorough historical review will show that most battles in the modern era were or are meeting engagements -- that's pretty much true at all levels from minor tactical to the strategic. So all you have to do is be better at correct (note NOT rapid; the OODA loops foolishness is fast draw stuff) response and you're ahead. If you've got a good sense of your opponent OR you've got good scouts, you can get a bit further ahead. Perhaps if you really knew him you could win easily -- but then if you really knew him, there might not be any cause for hostilities...

    Yet hostilities are a constant, maybe mostly because we don't understand each other nearly as well as the Sociologists would prefer. Fortunately, it's also been my observation through the last 60 plus years that we have never known our enemy very well but happily, they always seem to be a little more discombobulated than we are.
    Throughout the last two years, I've searched for anyone trying to answer these questions.
    Good questions but I certainly have no answers. I had a long discussion not too long ago with Wilf and 120mm with them taking the position that there were no cultural differences that preclude understanding others. They're entitled to their opinions but I disagreed. That disagreement was more than a bit based on the fact that I've fought people from at least four other cultures and neither I nor my superiors up to the national level really understood the opponents.
    but neither solution will solve our AQ problem.
    Totally true. I suspect only time will really solve that...

  2. #42
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    Ken,

    Your guess is probably correct; however, I think that this "realization" is a little short-sided. To date, little analysis has been conducted on AQ's ideology and strategy. The CTC at USMA amongst others have done an tremendous job interpreting captured and public documents, but we fail to analyze. I would suggest this marker should be our start point:

    1. Who is our enemy?
    2. What do they want to accomplish?
    3. How will they maneuver to seize their main objectives?

    Or simply put, as many others throughout time have espoused, know your enemy as you know yourself.

    In my mind, this answer is the beginning of defining the problem. Throughout the last two years, I've searched for anyone trying to answer these questions. SWJ is the only forum that comes close with Slapout and Bob's World's discussions.

    In the end, we can create a modern nation-state in both Iraq and A'stan that are both friendly towards the US, but neither solution will solve our AQ problem.

    v/r

    Mike
    Hi Mike, sorry for the late response but have been busy. We must be Channeling I sent a PM to Rob last night saying the same thing. In fact I have been saying what you bring up ever since I have been here. SBW is good stuff. AQ has a Strategy .....we don't! UBL has consistently said he is going to bleed us and bankrupt us. He hasn't deviated one bit from that and he is winning!

    Yes, the Objective is Saudi Arabia....always has been. UBL leads an Arab Guerrilla Army that camps out on other peoples property, hoping to divert and drain US strenght....he is simply taking the Strategic view of the longest way around is the shortest way home. UBL wants revenge so much I have never even heard him call it Saudi Arabia......he usually says the land of the two holy Mosques.

    Strategy is M.O.M....understand his Motive, understand his Methods and you see how he exploits numerous Opportunities. He can target like nobody's business and we better wake up and realize that or we are going to be...may be in deep trouble.

  3. #43
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    Default Loaded with Rich Content

    Mike's jewel encrusted comments:

    "The CTC at USMA amongst others have done an tremendous job interpreting captured and public documents, but we fail to analyze."

    It took two months in Iraq in early 2008 to put together a basic economic systems model for Northern Iraq that helped to prioritize reconstruction strategies.

    With the UN Disputed Internal Boundaries (DIBS) Team, we were pulling so much detailed data about populations, sub-populations, tribes, ethnic groups, minorities, IDPs, government services, etc., we couldn't process it all. I left in December with terra drives full of data. We put it all together for the UN, but couldn't find a US agency to take it, but I saw a lot of the bad data we have been using. All the info was there. Nobody had put it together. Lots of capture, not much analysis.

    Back to strange metrics: Do we track the growth of crooks and war profiteers, and their drag on our efforts? Somebody recently suggested an embargo on Iran's importation of refined gasoline products. All I could think of was the gas mafia we all had to deal with in Iraq, and the amount of soldiers killed because of them.

    In grad school in the mid-1980s, the issue was Deindustrialization, and the proposed tools were Central Planning ala Japan, Robert Reich, etc... It never took long to realize the flaws and failures in those systems. Instead, successes, such as they appear, lie in planning and feedback response strategies for open ended interactive economic and social systems.

    According to recent stats, Afghanistan is following regional patterns of major urbanization, now reaching over 50% of the population in urban areas. That's the start of urban, modern state preconditions (notwithstanding that we still think of the place as rural), but with that urbanization comes a host of opportunities, risks, complexities, etc... The game is always changing, as are the definitions of friends, enemies, success, targets.

    We can shoot bad guys until our hunting license expires, and we get thrown out, but shooting them makes more bad guys, and sometimes, those bad guys become "allies."

    Like you, I find that this blog always has somebody who can both knock big holes in my soemtimes lazy thoughts, and teach me a lot in the process.

    Steve

  4. #44
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Ken, there is little that you and I disagree with; however, this may be one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I think there may be more analysis than you suspect.
    Actually, I've posed the question to members of the NSC through JSOC. They were often left confounded and asking me for answers b/c they had not read enough, and yes, I had a high enough clearance to engage.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    The problem is that it's inconclusive but it is still being worked.Yeah, I've heard that, unfortunately or fortunately viewpoint dependent, I've discovered that one can't even know their friends as well as they know themselves, much less their enemies -- and, know what, that shortfall only complicates things a small amount. Quite small.
    Honestly, it's not being worked. Everyone is hamstrung by the immediate threats in A'stan and Iraq.

    You must remember. The Patraeus "think tank" of the surge and the CNAS appointees are mostly graduates of the USMA class of 2000. I met them when we were all 18 in Advanced Calculus. I know them well.

    Bottom line-No one is focusing on AQ despite the rhetoric. The overwhelming problem remains that we have not defined the problem set.

    v/r

    Mike
    Last edited by MikeF; 09-23-2009 at 04:23 AM.

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    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slapout9 View Post
    AQ has a Strategy .....we don't! UBL has consistently said he is going to bleed us and bankrupt us. He hasn't deviated one bit from that and he is winning!
    Slap, I gave my 20's to this fight, lost my share of good men, and I'll be damned if I quit now. It is time for us to confront UBL.

    v/r

    Mike
    Last edited by MikeF; 09-23-2009 at 04:17 AM.

  6. #46
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    Slap, I gave my 20's to this fight, lost my share of good men, and I'll be damned if I quit now. It is time for us to confront UBL.

    v/r

    Mike
    I didn't say nothing about quiting........time for an Air Campaign.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puQeh...eature=related

  7. #47
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Touche...

    Quote Originally Posted by slapout9 View Post
    I didn't say nothing about quiting........time for an Air Campaign.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puQeh...eature=related
    I didn't expect anything less, but you have to hear this duo by my two favorite artist...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B56UjiLuWkk

    v/r

    Mike

  8. #48
    Council Member Surferbeetle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    Everyone is hamstrung by the immediate threats in A'stan and Iraq.
    Tonight's FAZ: BG Vollmer, Regional Commander North says Germany needs to train 2,500 afghan policemen over the winter to help hold Kunduz, Deutsch politico's and others are slugging it out; one estimate for associated costs is 9 million for 2 years...(small beer given Dr. Stiglitz's estimate)

    Some tunes & a video to try and keep things light (Weezer & Warren Miller)
    Last edited by Surferbeetle; 09-23-2009 at 05:51 AM. Reason: cost link...
    Sapere Aude

  9. #49
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    I didn't expect anything less, but you have to hear this duo by my two favorite artist...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B56UjiLuWkk

    v/r

    Mike
    Yea, I am a big Kenny fan but had not heard that one, thanks. I Like Gary Allen to.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3_7ph6XK-g

  10. #50
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Not a prob, we can disagree -- I've been known to be wrong.

    Rarely.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    Actually, I've posed the question to members of the NSC through JSOC. They were often left confounded and asking me for answers b/c they had not read enough, and yes, I had a high enough clearance to engage.
    that doesn't surprise me in the least -- though I would suggest you're asking questions at the policy level where they cannot be bothered to know any details. I know of an analyst at DIA who's pretty knowledgeable and there are others around at lower levels.

    The problem is not that "we" do not know, the problem is that the power structure is too egocentric to be concerned. Truth is also that they are not a significant issue. Same thing has occurred in all our wars since WW II.
    Honestly, it's not being worked. Everyone is hamstrung by the immediate threats in A'stan and Iraq.
    At the execution level, that's the way of the world. Think of your Troop at Bragg and your foci there -- then consider your focus in Iraq.
    Bottom line-No one is focusing on AQ despite the rhetoric. The overwhelming problem remains that we have not defined the problem set.
    We rarely if ever do define the problem set to any real degree of specificity.

    Recall my comment above about not even really knowing ones friends. With that in mind, check the Op-Ed at the LINK. I would be willing to bet large sums that someone in State sent up a red flag on the issue and the Date. The NSC crowd could care less. I also believe effort is being expended on AQ, JI, Hezbollah and a slew of others. NSC crowd isn't cioncerned about them either. They are concerned about the multiple threats we face.

    Quoth Slap :
    ...AQ has a Strategy .....we don't! UBL has consistently said he is going to bleed us and bankrupt us. He hasn't deviated one bit from that and he is winning!
    I have heard that also, only difference between Slap and I is that I don't think he's winning. Not even close. AQ is not the enemy, they are only one small, not terribly effective crowd in a much larger crowd of folks who dislike the US and do not wish us well. They are not nearly as dangerous and not nearly as bothersome as Hezbollah to name just one other. Nor are they as close to us as still others or as wealthy as still others.

    Slap is right that they are focused and dedicated, they have a motive and a plan -- but they do not have the means to do what they say. They are only one aspect of twenty or so of concern to us strategically at this time. Slap also points out they target well. So-so, it seems -- yet if they overreach, a likely occurrence, all they'll do is hack off a whole lot of Americans. That's never a good plan; we tend to get stupid...

    A single enemy makes it easy to focus ones effort, ala the Cold War or even WW II and most of the wars after that which were all Cold War influenced. Today, the enemy is multi faceted and multi polar; there are a bunch of them.

    Spend too much effort focused on one and you'll miss what the others are up to. I believe the NSC is aware of that. I know others are...

  11. #51
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    At the execution level, that's the way of the world. Think of your Troop at Bragg and your foci there -- then consider your focus in Iraq.We rarely if ever do define the problem set to any real degree of specificity.
    Good points. I've been privy to things way outside my lane, and I realize that I'm not a SME on strategy. Mostly, I'll state an opinion or ask questions to to get smarter.

    IMO, anyone that actually grasps the problem understands that it is bigger than any one individual. That's one of the beauty's of SWJ- we can discuss things to find better resolutions.

    All the way Ken

    v/r

    Mike

  12. #52
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default But...

    Back to my original question:

    What is our strategy against AQ?

    Compare that with our current projected cost in A'stan and Iraq given that a 2-year surge in A'stan will be impotent. COIN or nation-building(whatever you want to call it) will take decades. I don't know the answers.

    v/r

    Mike

  13. #53
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default The strategy against them at this point and publicly

    available is to decapitate the leadership as it morphs, go after financial backers and sources and generally engage in a long term squeeze play that is mostly not military but Intel and Finance led and was last time I noticed, estimated to be in effective year four of a 20 plus year effort. The only military aspect at this time is AQ in Iraq and the small elements in Afghanistan. While some SOF may get involved as in Somalia recently, the Predator missile strikes in Afghanistan seem to belong to OGA. Plenty of fun for everyone.

    However, I still say they're a relatively small portion of the effort; they just aren't that important except from a revenge standpoint and they really don't have a great deal of capability at this time. They're trying to change that and I know that's being watched.

  14. #54
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Well...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    available is to decapitate the leadership as it morphs, go after financial backers and sources and generally engage in a long term squeeze play that is mostly not military but Intel and Finance led and was last time I noticed, estimated to be in effective year four of a 20 plus year effort. The only military aspect at this time is AQ in Iraq and the small elements in Afghanistan. While some SOF may get involved as in Somalia recently, the Predator missile strikes in Afghanistan seem to belong to OGA. Plenty of fun for everyone.

    However, I still say they're a relatively small portion of the effort; they just aren't that important except from a revenge standpoint and they really don't have a great deal of capability at this time. They're trying to change that and I know that's being watched.
    If that's the strategy/answer, then it sounds more like a global police action rather than a military one. We should lower our risk threshold (Dalton Fury in Tora Bora being the best public example), increase expeditionary treasury dept dudes (In Iraq circa 2005, there was a total of 2, I think that's changed), and turn the fight over to the FBI, CIA, and SOCOM. We're not doing that.

    Instead, we have a military answer- COIN with the mission-creep of nation-building towards the worst areas of the world.

    As my Papaw would put, that dog don't hunt.

    v/r

    Mike
    Last edited by MikeF; 09-23-2009 at 06:54 AM.

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    Default Insurgency & meeting engagements

    Ken, I suspect you are right that most post WWII wars have been characterized by meeting engagments including the war in El Salvador - which is where I'm going with this.

    By1987, the ESAF, govt, and the US had developed a holistic COIN strategy that included political and economic reform and development - the development strategy had evolved from the 1983-84 National Plan to Unidos Para Reconstruir 85 - 87 to Municipios en Accion after 87; from centralized phased to decentrralized. The corresponding military strategy had three parts:
    1. Protect infrastructure - a prime target of the FMLN - which also meant protecting the population because the infrastructure was located where they lived. This aspect of the strategy involved the most troops but was limited to regular brigades and miilitary detachments and Civil Defense (local militia) units.
    2. 24/7 patrols by Immediate Reaction Bn in areas of FMLN concentration characterized by meeting engagements. The objective was to keep the FMLN off balance and constantly on the move. Since these bn were operating in thirds - one third in the field, one third recovering, one third preparing to go back - they were rested compared to the guerrillas.
    3. Intel targeted operations by the national Special Operations Group (GOE) and similar operations by brigade long range patrol elements focused on specific identified concetrations of FMLN leaders and fighters.

    Together this national pol-econ-mil strategy won the war. Clearly, El Salvador is NOT Afghanistan or Iraq but we can certainly learn and adapt that which is appropriate. It is also useful to note that it took between 8 and 10 years to get all elements of the strategy in place. It is equally important that the big picture really was not clear to any single individual at the time. I never heard the military strategy described as I just described it by anybody - US or ESAF - while I was in country conducting the Combined ESAF Assessment (87-88) and I was talking with the MOD, the C3, the US Ambassador, and the MILGP commander along with the Southcom J3 who headed the team. Nevertheless, that is what was actually happening on the ground.

    Cheers

    JohnT
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-24-2009 at 11:43 AM. Reason: Copied to new thread on El Salvador and left here as discussion of topics is relevant

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    Council Member Surferbeetle's Avatar
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    Default More coffee needed...

    Quote Originally Posted by John T. Fishel View Post
    Together this national pol-econ-mil strategy won the war. Clearly, El Salvador is NOT Afghanistan or Iraq but we can certainly learn and adapt that which is appropriate. It is also useful to note that it took between 8 and 10 years to get all elements of the strategy in place. It is equally important that the big picture really was not clear to any single individual at the time. I never heard the military strategy described as I just described it by anybody - US or ESAF - while I was in country conducting the Combined ESAF Assessment (87-88) and I was talking with the MOD, the C3, the US Ambassador, and the MILGP commander along with the Southcom J3 who headed the team. Nevertheless, that is what was actually happening on the ground.
    John/Dr. F/Sir,

    As a fellow CA-bubba I recognize parts of your pol-econ-mil strategy from my time in Mosul, and saw some old echos of the El Salvador fight during a VETRETE there. During OIF 1 in Mosul we were able to reach large numbers of the populace and engage through the pol-econ-mil spectrum. As a result of this we reaped the benefits resulting from a greater mass of combined numbers (US & Iraqi) working to stabilize the area. My observation was that both US and Iraqi cultures were committed to centralized control however...later that summer de-bathification and disbanding the Army were some pretty serious below the belt shots to what we were doing...security deteriorated and the pol-econ side followed. There were still some older FMLN warriors around whom I bumped into during my visit to El Salvador. The FMLN had a distinct vision of themselves but they were peacefully pushing the pol-econ side of things in the small area that I observed. Peaceful integration is a worthy goal and I see the outcome as a success.

    Mike F,

    Darwinian competition analogies and riffs from ecology, business, and calculus may also be of use when considering our way forward. Plants are slower and easier to watch than animals. Plants fight by being optimized for certain conditions, growing larger than their competitors so that they can gather more nutrients & water, minimize their competitor’s access to nutrients & water, and produce more phytotoxins which inhibit the growth of competitors. Plants also work within ecosystems through such strategies as symbiosis and succession. Marketing teaches systematic examination of an organization’s internal environment, a customer’s environment, and the external environment to include competitors in order to look for and act upon advantages. Described here in a few short sentences it is very difficult to convey the benefits of understanding aspects of ecology and business and then applying them to our fight. Nonetheless those two subjects have been of use to me in my small sphere of influence and I highlight them for your consideration as we consider how to apply our calculus experiences to break things up into small manageable pieces and examine them for slope changes and areas under the curve, sometimes across several dimensions...while thinking about the hope and promise of the first sentence of my diffy q book: "This book is about how to predict the future." Perhaps we can describe the way forward with cobb-douglas demand functions and optimization strategy’s in partnership with our old standby, wielders of chicken bones?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-24-2009 at 11:43 AM. Reason: Copied to new thread on El Salvador and left here as discussion of topics is relevant
    Sapere Aude

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    Default Wish I knew how to surf!

    To me, the ultimate success of the El Sal strategy was the election last year of an FMLN president and his peaceful assumption of office. I saw this foreshadowed in a 2000 conference in El Sal where FMLN and aRENA legislators had forged friendships and working relationships.

    On decentralization: Amb Ed Corr was the father of the MEA plan that decentralized development - at least on the US side. In his article on mil-mil contacts in Low Intensity Conflict & Law Enforcement (vol 10 # 2) John Waghelstein who commaned the first big Milgp in 82-83 and was godfather of the original national plan, credits MEA with being the right approach.

    Me, with my CA hat, am a strong advocate of local level development planning. Villagers really do know what they need better than the central govt.

    Cheers

    JohnT
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-24-2009 at 11:44 AM. Reason: Copied to new thread on El Salvador and left here as discussion of topics is relevant

  18. #58
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default I wish I was surfing...

    Boards packed up as I'm waiting to PCS.

    Surferbeetle- I think I ran myself in circles discussing things w Ken last night so I'm gonna have to hold off a couple of days before trying to process the Darwin analogy. I've studied evolutionary stable system and how animals compete for natural resources, but I haven't really looked in to the stuff you posted.

    v/r

    Mike

  19. #59
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default I think so...

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    ...turn the fight over to the FBI, CIA, and SOCOM. We're not doing that.

    Instead, we have a military answer- COIN with the mission-creep of nation-building towards the worst areas of the world.

    As my Papaw would put, that dog don't hunt.
    Yep, he got that right.

    The USG initial reaction to 9/11 was to say that was exactly what was going to happen (SOCOM was given the worldwide mission) and then, to remove the Taliban and AQ in bulk from Afghanistan and depart. Removal of Saddam for many reasons (of which I'm convinced WMD was not one) was added, again with a rapid departure. the rapid departures got canceled; whether for humanitarian or deeper political reasons I know not -- nor do I care; I disagreed with staying but no one asked me and it happened so it's reality, the reasons are relatively inconsequential at this stage. We're there.

    What does matter is that both Iraq (a message to the broader ME as well as a major and smart strategic disruptor to AQ) and Afghanistan were flawed in execution by an Army that had deliberately not trained to occupy and stabilize another nation in an attempt to influence national policy (hopefully, we won't try that again...) and we got stuck deeper in both places due to a lack of capability. Thus the strategic effect was blunted but not disastrously so in Iraq and probably not in Afghanistan -- too early to tell, really, for either place.

    The problem today is that attacks in both nation were and are totally peripheral to Al Qaeda -- yet due to poor PR work by both the Bush and Obama admins and the incompetence of most news media folks, the three separate issues have become conflated in the eyes of too many.

    That conflation creates confusion -- in high places.

    However, the thing to remember is that neither Iraq nor Afghanistan have much to do with AQ.

    As I said earlier, that has dawned on the new administration who had the two thoroughly intermingled / conmingled / confuesd in their little minds (all politicians have little minds...) and they are now looking for the sign (LINK).

    If I were a cynic, I'd say that the Army has laid down a marker; the Admin will decide the cost is not supportable and changes will occur prior to November 2010 and even bigger changes prior to November 2012.

    Fortunately, I'm not a cynic. We'll see what happens...

    P.S.

    John T's right, as usual, on multiple counts.

    What happened there could be adapted to Afghanistan and likely will be to an extent. It did take almost 10 years to have an effect -- and in Afghanistan, a far larger and more difficult environment, we're just starting to recover from the LINK (which, in a sense, did as much harm as good -- as they often predictably and acceptably do) and implement -- it would take in excess of 20 years IMO to accomplish any where near what was done in El Salvador. Not sure we have the stomach for that...

    We plan things in excruciating detail but due to generally badly flawed intel, an egotistical disregard for other cultures by many in high place even when they are warned of the potential problems and our marginal state of training (I feel charitable today ) it's wasted effort. The failures those three flaws induce all impact at once so we end up discarding the plan and cobbling together Plan's B-M as we we blunder along. Fortunately, we do that well and we generally do a better job than our opponents.

    But Afghanistan really has little to do with AQ...

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Default Kill Bill Laden Vol. 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    Quoth Slap :I have heard that also, only difference between Slap and I is that I don't think he's winning. Not even close.
    If he is alive he is winning. He broke into our house and killed our family. So we need Kill Bill Laden Vol. 2 The incident at two Towers on 911 needs to become a legend of we Killed Bill Laden.....We deserve our revenge and he deserves to die! So where's Bill?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSR7xRGBnOE

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