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Thread: Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

  1. #121
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    After a rather 'shaky' and 'mainstream' introduction, this feature offers a some much better conclusions:

    Does Iran really control Yemen?
    ...Given these circumstances, why do several Iranian officials depict Yemen as a new Islamic Republic stronghold and part of the “resistance”?

    There could be two explanations.

    The first is that Iran has not materially assisted and supported the Houthis, and that Iranian statements of the opposite are simply targeting several audiences domestically and regionally. Iranian officials who do insist on Yemen’s place in the “resistance” depict the rise of revolutionary Shiite Houthis in Yemen as yet another victory for Iran and against the West, and particularly their Sunni rival, Saudi Arabia.

    Iran, then, is exaggerating its regional power and military reach to create a mystical stature aimed at solidifying the confidence of its grassroots supporters within and outside its borders — in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon — while muscle-flexing, and discouraging and pushing its domestic and international opponents onto the defensive.
    ...
    The presence of an Iran ally at the borders of Saudi Arabia is not only a serious threat militarily but could also destabilize the country from within. The victory of Houthis may inspire the Shiites in Eastern Province, an estimated 10% to 15% of the Saudi population who are already in a tense relationship with the establishment, to rise.

    The weakness of this explanation is that while Saudis have poured billions of dollars into supporting the Yemeni establishment, it is hard to believe that Houthis succeeded in organizing such a massive movement and fought a victorious war, as one analysts maintained, just by selling “pomegranates and grapes,” Saada’s major source of income.
    ...

    The Houthis’ position might be explained by pointing to their lack of desire to stir up unnecessary resistance from inside and outside of the country against them, and that they do not seek to become the sole holder of power in Yemen. Hussein Al-Bukhaiti explains Houthis' realistic view of Yemen as follows:

    “We cannot apply this [Iranian system] in Yemen because the followers of the Shafi [Sunni] doctrine are bigger in number than [us], the Zaidis [Shiite].”

  2. #122
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default A SEAL reflects on his Yemeni foxhole

    From CTC Sentinel a short interview with:
    ... the commander of Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT) Forward (SOC FWD) in Yemen. SOC FWD was an extension of SOCCENT, part and parcel with the command in Tampa. It was a task force with minimal staff and a joint force that primarily trained and advised Yemeni partners, but we also conducted civil affairs and military information support operations. And we were deeply embedded with the embassy and their activities.
    Link:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/a-vie...eign-relations

    It has some insight on the byzantine nature of working with and not working with Yemeni partners.

    His best line, with my emphasis:
    I am very concerned that we are pricing ourselves out of small wars.
    That's almost a thread in itself!
    davidbfpo

  3. #123
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Devastated

    A BBC World Service programme, 28 minutes long; a mix of politics and humanity:
    Lyse Doucet talks to journalist Safa al-Ahmad who has recently returned from filming a documentary in Yemen for BBC Arabic. Yemen is on the brink of civil war after Houthi rebels seized large swathes of the country including the capital, Sanaa, at the end of last year. Safa tells Lyse about some of the extraordinary encounters she had in the making of the film as she negotiated her way through Houthi checkpoints and into Al Qaeda held terrain. In a country that’s become increasingly difficult to report from Safa has poignant stories from a nation fast falling apart.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02lszv7

    I shall try to spot the documentary film.
    davidbfpo

  4. #124
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Two wars in Yemen kill off unity

    Gregory Johnsen, a Yemeni SME, has a short article on the madness in Aden, with fighting between factions and the sectarian mosque bombings today in Sanaa:http://www.buzzfeed.com/gregorydjohn...urn#.vjGGWl2B7

    The title says it all:
    Yemen May Be Past The Point Of Peaceful Return
    He ends with:
    ndividually, each of Yemen’s two overlapping wars — sectarian and political — would be severe enough to cripple the country. Together they might just kill off any lingering hopes of unity.
    His Tweet just is shorter:
    A reminder: Yemen has no president, no vice president, no prime minister and no cabinet. It does have 2 former presidents and lots of guns.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-20-2015 at 05:13 PM.
    davidbfpo

  5. #125
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    I'll never really understand all the efforts to 'unite' Yemen, and even less so all the efforts to keep it united. It was never united (before 1994).

    Why must it now remain united?

    Because all the possible politicians around the world are concerned about their own possible loss of power if somebody within 'their' borders decides to seceede?

    Really: that's no good excuse.

  6. #126
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Here goes more of taxpayer's money (or that borrowed from China): Pentagon lost $500M in weapons, aid to Yemen: ‘Assume it’s completely compromised’

    Actually, considering how much of US arms are presently supplied to Iraq only to end in hands of IRGC-QF-run Shi'a militias involved in acts of ethnic cleansing... this is peanuts.

    On another 'funny' note... since Houthis are in control of al-Anab AB (major training base of the YAF), north of San'a, and of ad-Dailami AB (military side of San'a International, housing MiG-29s and Su-22s), they're now de-facto in possession of the YAF too. Since mid-February there are reports about 'new activity' on both of these sites. Initially, most of this was related to flights of Zlin 242 basic trainers.

    Meanwhile: Yemen president flees palace after jet attack

    I'm almost disappointed: the jet in question missed by nearly a kilometre...

  7. #127
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    Default Pentagon Loses Track of $500 Million in Weapons, Equipment Given to Yemen

    Pentagon Loses Track of $500 Million in Weapons, Equipment Given to Yemen

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

  8. #128
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    So... the Houthis are in the process of establishing a new government - while continuing their advance in general direction of Aden, where explused 'president' Hadi and his GCC-supported cohorts are now hiding.

    Quite a few of related developments are very interesting. For example:

    - Houthis have appointed a New Defence Minister, and picked nobody else but Brig Gen Hussein Naji Qairan, a Shafi (Sunni), former CO 1st Marine Infantry Brigade (based at Socotra Island), for that position.

    - That's going to take plenty of Western observers by surprise. Namely, everybody here thinks that Houthis are 'Iranian-controlled' and actually consist of only one of Zaidi tribes. Actually, they have build a very wide coalition of forces, including plenty of Shafi tribes, and are meanwhile receiving wholehearted support of majority of the regular military. For example, yesterday the 33rd Armoured Brigade in ad-Dali Province - which is completely consisting of Shafis - has sworn allegiance to the new (Houthi) government.

    - On the contrary, Governor of Taizz has resigned after all the local security forces have refused to carry out his orders (out of protests from him ordering them to open fire at local protesters). Read: expect the local forces to side with Houthis too.

    Hadi and his cohorts are now hiding in Aden. Although totalling something like a mechanized brigade, they're unlikely to be able to defend the city from Houthi-led attack. Even more so because there are ever more reports about infighting between these forces and various of local tribes supposedly opposed to Houthis. Indeed, there are already reports about some of southern tribes openly fighting against Hadi's forces, i.e. siding with Houthis.

    In regards of Houthi advance: yesterday, they have entered the port of al-Mukha and the town of Dhalea, which brings them not only on the territory of the former Southern Yemen, but to a point 'only' about 260km away from Aden.

    Overall, Houthis are now in control of all major Yemeni cities and towns, including Sana'a, al-Hodeida, Taizz, Ibb, Dhamar, Amran, Sayyan, and Zabid. Only Aden and Muqalla are not yet in their hands.

    Obviously apauled by this development, Saudis are massing troops along the border and threatening with a military intervention.

  9. #129
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Oh, this is really getting a 'nice' story.

    The Saudi media (Jazzan News, and sorry, I've lost the link while translating and writing up all of the following) is already reporting attacks by Houthis against Saudi border posts.

    Supposedly, yesterday around 14.30h, 'scum of Houthis infiltrating at night' killed seven 'martyrs' of the Border Patrol and destroyed a number of their cars. This attack shold have caused 'displacement of a number of families from the village of al-Khubah', after 13 locals were injured by Houthi fire.

    According to same source, 'Hothis' office announced 'confession and claimed responsibility for barbaric attack on Saudi territory'...

    From that standpoint, it's 'unsurprising' the RSGF has ordered deployment of brigades stationed in Khamis Mushayt and Najran into the area.

    ...sounds like somebody is hard at searching for pretext to launch a military intervention in Yemen, and it's making me already curious if any of Western media is going to buy this story...

    *************

    EDIT: latest reports from Aden say that Houthis are entering the city, Hadi has fled, followed by Kuwaiti diplomats (like most of other foreign diplomats, they evacuated from Sana'a to Aden when the capital was overrun by Houthis).

    That would now explain the arrest of the Yemeni MOD by 'local popular committees' yesterday: seems that most of Shafis are so keen to join Houthis, that any military intervention by Saudi Arabia is entirely surplus.
    Last edited by CrowBat; 03-25-2015 at 12:00 PM.

  10. #130
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Yemen today in 43 minutes aka The Rise of the Houthis

    A remarkable BBC World Service documentary, by an Arab lady journalist, who somehow talks to the key factions. Note it was placed on the website on the 21st March:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31994769

    The BBC's explanation:
    A rebel group from the North of Yemen has taken over the capital and drastically changed Yemen's political landscape. Engaged in a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Houthis have brought Yemen to the brink of collapse. But who are Yemen's Houthis? What do they want? How have they come to take control of huge parts of the country? Safa Al-Ahmad from BBC Arabic has spent 3 months following the Houthis and also gets extraordinary access to their arch-enemies, the Sunni tribal leaders and other fighters loyal to Al-Qaeda.
    This is an update on an earlier post of a BBC World Service radio Q&A, 28 minutes long; a mix of politics and humanity:
    Lyse Doucet talks to journalist Safa al-Ahmad who has recently returned from filming a documentary in Yemen for BBC Arabic. Yemen is on the brink of civil war after Houthi rebels seized large swathes of the country including the capital, Sanaa, at the end of last year. Safa tells Lyse about some of the extraordinary encounters she had in the making of the film as she negotiated her way through Houthi checkpoints and into Al Qaeda held terrain. In a country that’s become increasingly difficult to report from Safa has poignant stories from a nation fast falling apart.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02lszv7
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-27-2015 at 11:27 PM. Reason: This was a stand alone thread to gain attention, now merged here
    davidbfpo

  11. #131
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    I noted, but did not record a couple of comments on Twitter that last week's suicide bombing at mosques in Sanaa, meant all Muslims were killed as mosques can be used by all Muslims, rather than separate sects with exclusive use of mosques. Plus some photos of a massive public turnout for the funerals.

    Brain Whitaker, a British SME, adds a commentary on the history of Yemen's relationship with Saudi Arabia:http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2015/marc....8b69bQlT.dpbs
    davidbfpo

  12. #132
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    ^^Best of all was Iranian media, that is Radio Tehran - which declared these attacks as 'flown by Saudi Air Force'...

    ***********

    Anyway, Hadi is finished: he fled the country by sea.

    Houtis have secured Aden IAP, meanwhile.

    Means: Saudis and all of their mates from the GCC are now facing a fait accompli in Yemen. For the time being, it's going to be Houthis - with all of their Sunni friends (these are including all of Army and Air Force, plus a number of renegade army units still loyal to former president Salleh, but foremost a large number of different Sunni tribes) - that are going to decide about the future of the country.

    Talking about 'tribes'... below is a tribal map of Yemen, in Arabic. Whoever wants to be in control of all of them: good luck.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  13. #133
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Video showing Houthis entering al-Anad AB, held by Salleh-loyalists (majority of whom joined them):
    https://www.youtube.com/embed/yHHWJQZORbk

    Attached photo should be showing Hadi, his entourage and Saudi diplomats inside the port of Aden, about to embark a vessel that brought them out of the country, earlier today...
    Attached Images Attached Images

  14. #134
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    During the night, the RSAF launched the operation 'Decisive Storm' - against 'Houthis' in Yemen. The first wave saw a massive strike on Houthi positions in and around Sana'a. Bombardment lasted longer than two hours. Reports have it that 100 RSAF, 30 UAEAF, 10 QEAF and 8 RBAF jets took part.

    While there are no details about specific targets hit by this bombardment, there are claims that one RSAF aircraft was shot down during attacks on air defences in Sana'a, early this morning (photos supposedly showing the crash site are fakes, though: they're showing protests from Taizz, few days ago). Some say by SAMs, other by ZSU-23-4s.

    Second wave was reported early in the morning (about six hours ago). This appeared not as massive, and is reported as 'not as precise' (as the first wave). It should have involved 6 RJAF F-16s, plus 20 jets from UAEAF, 15 from KAF, 15 from RBAF and 10 from QEAF. Locals claimed another jet as shot down by SAMs around that time.

    ************

    My commentary: to call this operation 'insane' would be an understatement.

    For the start, and from what I get to hear from Sana'a, ALL Yemeni military units hae now joined the Houthis. Indeed, even most ardent anti-Houthi activists in Yemen are now twitting, '#### off Saudi Arabia'...

    For years, Yemenis had to endulge all the possible empty promises by Salleh and his ex vice Hadi about 'national dialogue', promises to 'rectify problems of the country'. They're fed up of Saudis hegemony in particular, and even US support for such useless governments. They're fed up of their government's double play, including clandestine cooperation with al-Qaida. That's why majority of them - not only majority of civilians, but meanwhile all of the military too - joined the Houthis in their drive to remove that government.

    But nah, because of the religious context, Yemenis are now all declared for 'Iranian-backed Shi'a', and thus free to get bombed - and this with US support?

    Simply insane. But not unexpected or lacking logic:

    1.) An absolute monarchy with Wahhabism as state religion (see Saudi Arabia) cannot tolerate any other 'kind' of state in Yemen, but a mirror of its own.

    2.) New Saudi king is still struggling to firm his position on throne while under pressure from two different cliques within own family (at least one of which is actually 'pro al-Qaida'). What's a better solution but to go 'doing something' - in Yemen?

    3.) His military is keen to show that they have learned their lessons from 2009-2010 (actually, some say, they would prefer to go bombing Tehran instead, not only Houthis in Yemen). Plus, every war is a great opportunity for various of prince-generals to earn a few extra bucks...

    4.) Saudis are joined by Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Jordan, followed by Sudan, Morocco and Pakistan. They are all now now using the excuse of 'supporting legal government' that is demanding help from them - although this 'legal government' is in control of next to nothing in Yemen: Hadi is not even representative for his own tribe, then most of this has sided with Houthis...

    They have declared the Yemeni airspace for 'closed' (or 'restricted airspace') and all seaports under 'blockade'.

    What is a little bit surprising is the speed at which these idiots have gathered such a big force, an integrated HQ and whatever else - and then attacked a _supposedly_ 'Iran-supported group' in Yemen. They failed to do anything similar against a CLEARY Iran-supported regime in Syria in FOUR YEARs...? Guess, weak Yemeni air defences are much less a hindering factor.

    At least amusing is that idiotic 'winner of Nobel Price for Peace' in the White House and his support for this nonsense.

    But because of Western ignorance and highly effective PR, plus because they have enough aircraft, ammo, fuel and training, they can go on bombing Yemen for years, or straight back into stone age - at least until they drive all Yemenis straight into Iranian hands, for example.

  15. #135
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    ...and 'they' continue to make it ever better and better:
    Egyptian navy has fired shots at Iranian warships
    Egyptian navy has fired warning shots at Iranian warships near Bab el-Mandab Strait.
    ...
    The Saudi-led Firmness Storm coalition has imposed a naval blockade on Bab El-Mandab strait which connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, sources told Ahram Online.

    The Saudi navy’s western fleet has also secured Yemen’s main ports including Aden and Midi.
    ...
    They did nothing to stop an open Iranian military intervention in Syria and Iraq, but are now shooting even at Iranian warships passing an international waterway...?!?

  16. #136
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    "NIMBY" - how most nations determine there vital interests.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  17. #137
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Stay out of the Yemeni yard! Too late

    Gregory Johnsen had this piece earlier this month, it is a backgrounder:http://www.buzzfeed.com/gregorydjohn...men#.dtnN6XGex

    His final paragraph:
    The Yemen model that President Obama praised only a few months ago has collapsed. The state has fractured and no one is sure if it can be put back together again. A decade ago the Huthis were at war with the state and looked to be on the verge of extinction, today they’re in the presidential palace.
    Another SME, who lived in Yemen 2011-2014, Adam Baron yesterday simply says:
    Just stay out of it....Yet foreign intervention could very well be the worst approach now—further regionalizing what is still a local fight, injecting a stronger sectarian tone into the conflict while threatening to push Yemen closer to implosion.
    Link:http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...#ixzz3VVNYThdb

    If you are on Twitter check Greg's timeline for his recommdations to follow.
    davidbfpo

  18. #138
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    The 'Yemen Modell' in question was 'Saudi Puppets Modell', and could never function. Houthis consider themselves for defending the Arab cause against 'Saudi Zionists'. Many of other Yemenis are siding with them, especially so now that Saudi Arabia has attacked the country.

    ...and that's quite straightforward, actually.

    ...contrary to US politics - which resulted in US air strikes on the Daesh in Tirkit in support of the IRGC-led Iraqi troops...

    ...although the IRGC is officially considered a 'terrorist organization'...

    ....being flown at the same time CENTCOM is in the process of creating a joint command cell with Saudis, in order to coordinate support ops and intel for air strikes agianst Houthis....

    ...who in turn are fiercely anti-al-Qaida too.

    In what world is that making sense to anybody (except for all the possible farths in the Congress)?

  19. #139
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    Default

    davidbfpo

  20. #140
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    Default Somalia preparing to evacuate citizens from Yemen

    A hard to imagine headline?
    In view of deteriorating situation in once-stable Yemen, Somali government has announced that it’s preparing to evacuate its stranded citizens (500k) from the conflict-hit country.
    Link:http://horseedmedia.net/2015/03/27/s...ns-from-yemen/

    Just how this massive transfer will be done is unclear. What resources, finance and more are available? Will Somaliland cooperate?
    davidbfpo

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