The new Libya: various aspects

[Marc]

Interesting that democracy is equated here with economic liberalization, as if the two were synonymous. Interesting also that income inequality and the absence of "social justice" are seen as the principal problems facing a Libyan Democracy.

I suspect that the problems facing an attempt to develop democracy in Libya are likely to be far more severe and immediate than income equality and "social justice" (whatever we take that to mean). Possibly a bit of projection in the picture there.

Dayuhan,

In an oil economy, "social justice" would mean that the large majority of the population, rather than a small elite benefits from the country's natural richness. A democracy functions according to the principle of "no taxation without representation." A dictatorship financed by oil revenues puts this principle on its head: "no taxation, therefore no representation". A dictator buys the acquiescence of the people with government jobs and subsidies on necessities like food, fuel and housing. The oil economy cannot provide jobs for everyone, but it can generate more than 90% of the national GDP. Claessen's article holds that it is difficult to reconcile this reality with democracy and economic liberalization, but that it is easy to reconcile this reality with a social contract based either on

a patronizing system granting government jobs on the basis of subservience or a social security system based on the Islamic duty to help the poor. The former could evolve into a new autocracy. The latter would tend towards an Islamist state.

[Dayuhan]

In an oil economy, "social justice" would mean that the large majority of the population, rather than a small elite benefits from the country's natural richness. A democracy functions according to the principle of "no taxation without representation." A dictatorship financed by oil revenues puts this principle on its head: "no taxation, therefore no representation". A dictator buys the acquiescence of the people with government jobs and subsidies on necessities like food, fuel and housing. The oil economy cannot provide jobs for everyone, but it can generate more than 90% of the national GDP. Claessen's article holds that it is difficult to reconcile this reality with democracy and economic liberalization, but that it is easy to reconcile this reality with a social contract based either on

The term "social justice" means lots of things to lots of people, which limits its utility. Certainly the presence of oil or other resource wealth poses certain complications for a transition out of dictatorship, as does the absence of resources.

The challenge facing Libya now is to transform a loose coalition united only by opposition to the dictator into something resembling a government that is able to provide the basic rudiments of governance. Where it goes from there - if that can be achieved - can be managed after that is achieved.

[Rex Brynen]

The challenge facing Libya now is to transform a loose coalition united only by opposition to the dictator into something resembling a government that is able to provide the basic rudiments of governance. Where it goes from there - if that can be achieved - can be managed after that is achieved.

One refrain I heard quite often in Libya was that the prolonged struggle to overthrow Qaddafi may have helped to build a stronger sense of national identity and purpose. This isn't to say the challenges aren't serious--they are, given the factionalism that already exists. However it was striking to hear people say "perhaps its a good thing we didn't win in a week, and instead had to work together to achieve this outcome."

[Dayuhan]

One refrain I heard quite often in Libya was that the prolonged struggle to overthrow Qaddafi may have helped to build a stronger sense of national identity and purpose. This isn't to say the challenges aren't serious--they are, given the factionalism that already exists. However it was striking to hear people say "perhaps its a good thing we didn't win in a week, and instead had to work together to achieve this outcome."

I remember citing this possibility, back in the early days of the other thread, as a reason to avoid external regime change, on the grounds that the need to overthrow the regime themselves would force the opposition to develop some degree of organization and coordination. I think the opposition is certainly better equipped to govern now than it would have been if NATO had simply removed the dictator. Whether or not it's enough... time will tell. Forming a government will be difficult, actually governing far more so.

The extent to which post-Daffy political groupings coalesce among tribal or individualist lines, and the ability of such groups to cooperate, or at least to compete without armed conflict, is something I'm not sure anyone can reliably predict at this stage. We'll see.

[Marc]

The challenge facing Libya now is to transform a loose coalition united only by opposition to the dictator into something resembling a government that is able to provide the basic rudiments of governance. Where it goes from there - if that can be achieved - can be managed after that is achieved.

Dayuhan,

Sorry, but that sounds like a recipe for yet another failure to get phase 4 right.

Marc

[Ken White]

Probably just as well, we also apparently do not...

A rather chaotic and somewhat spontaneous lurch into an unexpected revolt was highly unlikely to have developed US-like mathematic and simplistic phaseology. That's a plus for them. They'll work it out and they have -- quite wisely IMO -- rejected offers of Western aid and advice (less money, of course...) and are apparently requesting military training assistance from the Kingdom of Jordan. Pretty smart of them...

Events often do not cater for 'efficient' design and 'proper' planning; often one has to do what feels right and make it up as one goes along. Surprisingly, that generally yields results far better than those obtained using straitjackets, matrices and metrics...

[davidbfpo]

I am aware that Libya identified a large shortfall in management capacity approx. 18 months ago, for all sectors and were seeking externally validated training leading to a qualification (not MBA). It will be interesting to see if Libyan exiles and those who have been absent now return. There were numerous BBC TV news clips of families returning, even to Misrata during the siege. I concede some will now want to leave too. A number of Libyan families have sat out the war in Malta.