Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

**carl** · 05-30-2013

Bashar says the S-300s have arrived.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/31/wo....html?hp&_r=1&

I wonder if he is trying to bluff the Israelis.

**davidbfpo** · 05-30-2013

Carl,

This AM on BBC Radio Four an Israeli commentator was asked about the arrival of the SAMs, his response was noteworthy; these are not his exact words:

Our concern is not over the arrival of the missiles, which may not be ready to use for sometime. It is whether they provide cover for our enemies to launch attacks and if should they fall into the hands of our enemies. Israel has taken a very clear stance on what is happening in Syria. We support no-one.

Given the internal situation such weapons - when ready - do not help the regime to win the civil war. Nor do they deter foreign or more accurately US intervention. What is their actual value is unclear. They may act as a visible sign within Syria that Russia remains a helpful friend; which I am sceptocal about.

Note Russia this week was reported as evacuating all Tajik nationals, after their government said leave.

**Bill Moore** · 05-31-2013

Originally Posted by carl

Bashar says the S-300s have arrived.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/31/wo....html?hp&_r=1&

I wonder if he is trying to bluff the Israelis.

Quick draw another Red Line and dare someone to cross it

, when they do take three steps back and draw another one.

Most of our strategic assessments point out that we live in a multipolar world and while the U.S. is still the sole superpower its power is relatively less and increasingly less year by year. This means other nations are not going to dance to our music just because we ask, or tell, them to. Some of our leaders still seem to have a hard time grasping this and are quick to recommend flexing our economic and military muscle to get our way. If Sen McCain and others in Congress want us to pursue military action in support of one faction of the resistance then they should be prepared to apply all necessary force needed to achieve whatever clear policy objective they come up with and accept the potential escalation of the conflict into a much broader conflict involving other states who will wage war in a way we are probably not anticipating. Even a limited military action on our part can potentially lead us into something much larger, or create a situation that is worse than the current one in the region.

**davidbfpo** · 06-03-2013

A short paper, lovely graphics and a selection of obituaries. This US paper's correct title is 'A Joint Study Charting the Evolving Role of Sunni Foreign Fighters in the Armed Uprising Against the Assad Regime in Syria'.

The role of foreign fighters has appeared before, there's even a thread.

On a quick skim read some nuggets here:https://flashpoint-intel.com/upload/...yrs_Report.pdf

**carl** · 06-03-2013

Originally Posted by Bill Moore

Most of our strategic assessments point out that we live in a multipolar world and while the U.S. is still the sole superpower its power is relatively less and increasingly less year by year. This means other nations are not going to dance to our music just because we ask, or tell, them to. Some of our leaders still seem to have a hard time grasping this and are quick to recommend flexing our economic and military muscle to get our way. If Sen McCain and others in Congress want us to pursue military action in support of one faction of the resistance then they should be prepared to apply all necessary force needed to achieve whatever clear policy objective they come up with and accept the potential escalation of the conflict into a much broader conflict involving other states who will wage war in a way we are probably not anticipating. Even a limited military action on our part can potentially lead us into something much larger, or create a situation that is worse than the current one in the region.

I agree with you in broad principle, but often I think we judge other countries to have far more power than they have because we are spineless putzes. Russia is an example. They are in the midst of a demographic disaster. Their armed forces are a wreck. Their leadership is composed of kleptocrats. In sum, they got mostly nothing much but nerve. Yet, we allow Putin to keep our Secretary of State cooling his heels for 3 hours before a meeting. That kind of thing does not impress the hard men of the world. No, it does impress them, rather a lot. It impresses upon them that we are putzes and they can pretty much do as they please. That is not a good thing.

Now I am not saying that the 843rd Bomb Wing should launch over that but at least Mr. Kerry should have left and gone to the movies and turned off his cell phone for a few hours.

**carl** · 06-04-2013

I was thinking about how we are looking to the hard men of the world. Last year or the year before we told the Russians not to deliver S-300s to the Iranians and they didn't. This year they announce they are going to deliver S-300s to the Syrians who are close allies to the Iranians. When those missiles are delivered I expect for every Syrian learning the system there will be an Iranian sitting next to him. When that happens there is no longer any reason for Russia to further defer delivering the S-300s already ordered to Iran. Our obvious lack of resolve is going to make the world rather interesting from a SEAD point of view.

I don't see how Israel can let those missiles reach operational status in Syria. They will be destroyed/disabled somewhere along the way, Russians killed in the process or not. The life insurance policy premiums for the Russian techs going along with those missiles must be very high.

**davidbfpo** · 06-04-2013

It is rather curious that there is the prospect of Russian supplied of S-300 missiles versus a soon to take place US exercise in Jordan, that will "leave behind" its manned Patriot batteries.

From FP Situation Report:

Patriot batteries to remain in Jordan after Eager Lion. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has decided to leave the Patriot missile system in Jordan after the big training exercise there in order to give the United States options to play a more active role in Syria, like creating a no-fly zone

**Johannes U** · 06-06-2013

After Syrian rebels captured and occupied the Bravo gate (Syrian side) for some time today, the Austrian government apparently has decided today to withdraw its 390-strong contingent within the next 2 to 3 weeks.

I wonder what that will mean for the continuation of UNDOF and for the region as a whole, now that there will be no more puffer between the Syrian forces (both rebels and freedom fighters) and the IDF ...

**davidbfpo** · 06-11-2013

Recommended by IISS Emile Hokayem a Carnegie commentary, in summary:

The fall of the Syrian town of Qusair to Assad’s forces shows that the regime is poised to secure its position for the long term. The opposition must address its serious shortcomings.....If the strategic equilibrium that has emerged since November 2012 tips further, it will be a decisive shift in the regime’s favor.

It ends with:

The regime will not achieve a total military victory, but it can consolidate its grip on Syria’s cities, stabilize its economic situation, and hold the rebels at bay in peripheral parts of the country. Assad would be left ruling a Myanmar on the Mediterranean, boycotted by the West and some Arab states but surviving on the support of its external allies and the informal economic and trade networks that are already forming across its borders.

Something has to give—and soon. Time is running out. The regime cannot win. But the opposition can lose.

Link:http://carnegie-mec.org/2013/06/07/s...ing-point/g95a