SMALL WARS COUNCIL
Go Back   Small Wars Council > Conflicts -- Current & Future > Other, By Region > Middle East

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-27-2013   #1
slapout9
Council Member
 
slapout9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,752
Default Targeting......Syria......And The 5 Rings

Your Mission is to deter the future use of Chemical Weapons by the Syrian regime. You can use any Air,Electronic,Intelligence assets of the USA military services and the CIA.

Using Warden's 5 rings what would your targets be?
slapout9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2013   #2
omarali50
Council Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 753
Default

Assuming that we really want to save the poor Syrian people from chemical weapon attacks, and assuming that the evil Assad regime actually launched the attacks (both open to question to some degree, but lets play along):
Leadership and nothing else. With drones and sigint and humint (I am just having fun with these words), daily hits on any leader (meaning anyone in the Assad family, known close associates, senior military, secret police chiefs, etc) who happens to be found.
Even then, it would be important to have a backchannel to them saying "if you do X, you are off the hit list".
Oh yes, daily list of "Obama's most-wanted", posters on the internet (just for show, there is little internet left in Syria now, but we could have wanted-poster design competitions in high schools), playing card decks with pictures of the bad guys for TV reporters. Running totals. Video games showing bad guys getting hit. Video of bombs entering chimneys. That sort of thing.
It would work too.
Seriously it would. But we are too nice to do that, not nice enough to stay away.

Last edited by omarali50; 08-27-2013 at 08:16 PM.
omarali50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2013   #3
Tukhachevskii
Council Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 589
Default

Diplomacy, diplomacy, diplomacy. Isolate all elements from external support. Work WITH Russia, Chine and the UN. Prevent arms supplies to ALL parties. Establish a ceasefire within Syria. Monitor with UN forces and air power. Strike any elements breaking ceasefire. Get all side to the negotiating table. Do NOT take sides (increases legitimacy of monitoring force in eyes of primary participants). Once internal elements are unable to resupply they will exhaust themselves. Include Assad government in any and all negotiations. Sit back and let them make their own peace/mess.

Alternative? Create a new Egypt or Libya and watch it all go to pot. Use air strikes and watch Uk and Us create new enemies for themselves, sit back and learn no lessons from history and then wonder how we got ourselves into this mess.
Tukhachevskii is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2013   #4
John T. Fishel
Council Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Rancho La Espada, Blanchard, OK
Posts: 1,065
Default Of the 5 rings

Slap, what you go after depends on what you want to accomplish. First strategic question: what is the objective? Follows from; what is the US interest? Then there is the Clauswitzian question: what kind of war are you embarking on?

Last first: intervention in a sectarian war involving Iran as a support and through proxies. The US interests are to (1) weaken Iran and its proxies; (2) demonstrate the high cost to Russia of supporting a criminal regime; (3) protect the people of Syria to the extent possible given that we have failed to do so for over 2 years. Objectives: (1) make the use of chem weapons so costly that they will not be used again; (2) weaken Assad to the point where the rebels have a chance to defeat him (that means hurting the regime and therefore its allies); (2) strengthening those elements of the opposition that are most supportive of US goals in the region.

Rings: (1) degrade C2 especially that of the AF. (Leadership but limited); (2) Crater airfields (infrastructure); (3) destroy Syrian AF (deployed mil forces). If you look at this I am following the lead of GEN jack Keane

Cheers

JohnT
John T. Fishel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2013   #5
slapout9
Council Member
 
slapout9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,752
Default Required Sorties To Degrade Syrian Air Power

Institute for the Study of War has a nice PDF form the requirements to degrade Syria's Air Force was done at the beginning of August this year to.


http://understandingwar.org/sites/de...anAirPower.pdf
slapout9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2013   #6
slapout9
Council Member
 
slapout9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,752
Default Colonel Warden advising Care About Syria From 2012!

Link December to 2012 article from the Montgomery Advertiser by Colonel Warden on the idea of intervention in Syria. Read closely it suggest that Obama was thinking about serious intervention all the way back then.

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/...erious-thought
slapout9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2013   #7
uwew
Council Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Minden, Germany
Posts: 17
Default

Not really deterrence, but:

Leadership: Give Assad and his family an exit option. Due to sanctions and the threat of facing trial
in the Hague, they cant go anywhere and have to fight to the end with all means at their disposal.

Population: Give Alawites and Shiites a survival option. They face danger of elimination from Sunni islamist groups.
Their best bet now is staying loyal to Assad and his family.
uwew is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2013   #8
omarali50
Council Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 753
Default

SPOT ON.
Any strike that does not target the leadership and any policy that does not include a VERY serious effort to figure out how to protect the Alawites and Christians in the aftermath is immoral and is going to create more problems than it solves.
omarali50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 01:04 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8. ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Registered Users are solely responsible for their messages.
Operated by, and site design 2005-2009, Small Wars Foundation