Iran & AQ: a safe haven or holding cell?

[davidbfpo]

Another strange development, an AQ leader and / or strategist who has been reportedly in a Syrian jail has been reported as being released; similar to the AQ planner released awhile ago from detention in Iran.

I have read his biography awhile ago, so here's a slim background:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Setmariam_Nasar

Two recent commentaries by ICSR, one nearly a week ago:http://icsr.info/blog/Whither-al-Suri

Note the possible link to a kidnapped American charity worker in Pakistan months ago:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ri-claims.html

The second today, reflecting "chatter" on Jihadist forums:http://icsr.info/blog/Al-Qaeda-theor...rison-in-Syria

T'is a murky world diplomacy, hostage negotiation and "talking to the enemy".

[davidbfpo]

Zenpundit has a short update:

Credible sources at the forums said al-Suri was released then, but no word on him since.

Link:http://zenpundit.com/?p=14510

One wonders if Syria holds other AQ cadre and the inevitable question what will happen to them?

[davidbfpo]

As we approach 2013 the media turn to reflection and reminding us of the best articles published, amidst is an offering from Foreign Affairs is a substantial article I missed 'Al Qaeda in Iran: Why Tehran is Accommodating the Terrorist Group' by Seth Jones, in January 2012:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...iran?page=show

Seth opens with:

Virtually unnoticed, since late 2001, Iran has held some of al Qaeda's most senior leaders. Several of these operatives, such as Yasin al-Suri, an al Qaeda facilitator, have moved recruits and money from the Middle East to central al Qaeda in Pakistan. Others, such as Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian that served as head of al Qaeda's security committee, and Abu Muhammad al-Masri, one of the masterminds of the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in East Africa, have provided strategic and operational assistance to central al Qaeda. The Iranian government has held most of them under house arrest, limited their freedom of movement, and closely monitored their activities. Yet the organization's presence in Iran means that, contrary to optimistic assessments that have become the norm in Washington, al Qaeda's demise is not imminent.

I know scattered around SWC are comments on the sometimes puzzling relationship between Iran and AQ. Iran at times appearing to act as an internment camp for AQ cadres, with the occasional release to return to the fray in Afghanistan.

Three relevant threads are:'Iran & USA allies in Afghanistan:stranger than reality', posts mainly from 2007:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...read.php?t=729, 'AQ-Central to relocate?':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=14034 and the mysteries of AQ internment in Syria in 'Abu Musab al-Suri is free? AQ's No.4':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=15095

IIRC CWOT has touched upon this subject in his polling analysis.

Perhaps other matters have stopped official action on Iran's stance, notably movement towards a nuclear capability.

Added 2013:http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/0...qaeda-network/

[davidbfpo]

There has been no update on whether al-Suri remains in Syrian custody, but in a discussion with open source analysts there were two comments. First, from a Jihadist on-line "chat" watcher al-Suri remains in Syria, if he had been released there would have been "chatter".

Secondly given his long detention, since October 2005, what condition is he in? If he is ill (physical / mental) what would be gained by AQ announcing his release. Or IMHO a transfer to another state - Iran comes to mind.

[davidbfpo]

An odd update:

Osama bin Laden’s son-in-law was arrested in Ankara by Turkish security forces after Washington allegedly informed Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT) about his location, daily Milliyet reported today.

Suleyman M., son-in-law of former al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, was allegedly staying at a camp in Iran after the Sept. 11 attack on the World Trade Center in 2001. He entered Turkey using a fake Saudi Arabian passport.

He was released and returned to Iran!

Link:http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/bin...=238&nid=40303 and a slightly confusing account after translation:http://gundem.milliyet.com.tr/ladin-...37/default.htm

[xf4wso]

This is a story that does not seem to have made it into the major English-language news services. According to a leading Turkish daily, Milliyet, Bin-Laden's son-in-law Sulayman Jasim abu Ghaith was arrested in Ankara around 3 February 2012 after entering Turkey on an illegal passport from Iran. The story claims that a CIA tip led to his arrest, but that Turkey did not intend to turn him over to the US. Since his only crime in Turkey was entering illegally, he would be deported back to Iran. I haven't seen any follow-up to this story, but the Arab news sites picked it up and seemed to confirm it.

This is the link to the original story:
http://gundem.milliyet.com.tr/ladin-...37/default.htm

This is the main Arabic source:
http://www.aawsat.com/details.asp?se...4#.UREh7me7rHs

[xf4wso]

This does not seem to have made it into most of the English-language press- a Turkish paper, Milliyet, reported on 3 February (the day after the suicide bombing at the US embassy) that Bin Laden's son-in-law, Sulayman Jasim abu Ghaith, was arrested in Ankara following a CIA tip. The Arabic press also carried the story, but I haven't seen anything else since the initial story (not unusual). Did anyone else see anything related to this?

If anyone is interested I can provide URL for the story in Milliyet and Ash-Sharq al-Awsat.

[Stan]

Well, he slightly made the State Department's press briefing

With a diplomatic fuss over his extradition, seems Foggy Bottom has gone silent and Abu Ghaith just can't compete with the likes of Pope Benedict or the Africa Cup of Nations at the BBC.

With that, Turkish news will have to do

[davidbfpo]

Clint Watts blogsite looks at this issue:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=993

He ends with:

So what does all this mean?

Well it seems my Iran wild card fears of summer 2012 may not be worthy of much attention. If Suleiman was in fact the last al Qaeda member held by the IRGC, then, at least on the surface, it would appear that Iran is not intending to use al Qaeda, a Sunni extremist group, as a strategic proxy against the West and Israel in the way that it backs other Sunni groups like Hamas.

I wonder if the release of Suleiman and other al Qaeda members has some connection to the emerging proxy battle brewing between the IRGC and al Qaeda linked al Nusra Front in Syria? I’m guessing there is no way to know but the recent movement of Suleiman is quite curious. Stays in Iran for more than a decade and suddenly decides to leave? What’s up?

Even more curious is that Suleiman is reportedly in Kuwait now!

[davidbfpo]

A Reuters report on Suleiman Abu Ghaith:

A son-in-law of Osama bin Laden who served as al Qaeda's spokesman was arrested in Jordan and then brought to New York in an operation led by Jordanian authorities and the FBI, U.S. government sources said on Thursday.

Curiously there was no official comment, so whether acting on a "leak" is unclear, nor whether he wanted a "scoop" it came from:

... Representative Peter King, a senior Republican member of the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee and former chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security.

Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9260ZS20130307 (added later) and:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-21706645

[davidbfpo]

From a FP email:

He was first arrested in Turkey last month and was then detained by American officials during a stopover in Jordan after Turkish authorities deported him to Kuwait.

I am sure FP is wrong on the US role in Jordan; detained by the Jordanians under the existing extradition agreement and once that process was completed onto a flight to NYC. Looks like some deft diplomacy and LE coordination.

Link via FP:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/wo...kkgEfhNLiwpxoQ

Intelligence officials have long debated how the group of operatives — several who are members of Al Qaeda’s “shura council” — has been treated inside Iran, and his trial could shed light on its members’ lives there. Some officials described them as being under a kind of house arrest, and point out that Iran — a country run by a Shiite Muslim theocracy — would be wary of any alliance with Al Qaeda, a Sunni terrorist network. Others believe that Iran might at least be using the group to keep open communication channels with senior Qaeda leaders in Pakistan.

NYT notes several trials are now due in NYC; well I'll wait till they do appear in court.

[davidbfpo]

An impressive, detailed explanation on Jihadica, with links to interviews of those who had been in Iran and more:http://www.jihadica.com/abu-ghaith-a...ction-in-iran/

sources suggest that these men constituted a dissident faction within al-Qa’ida, one which in recent years had become increasingly vocal in their criticism of Bin Ladin, Zawahiri, and the direction that the latter had taken al-Qa’ida since the September 11 attacks.

It appears on my first quick read that Iran might have been a far safer place to be - from AQ - than anywhere else.

[davidbfpo]

An odd update by CWOT and a long way from Iran itself 'Strange “al Qaeda in Iran” supported plot disrupted in Canada':http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=1052&go...mber_234872530

A very thin report on the arrests:http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Globa...tor+%7C+World)

[davidbfpo]

An update from Reuters, with some interesting comments by ex-insiders, notably IISS's Nigel Inkster and a short reference to the Canadian case:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...93N18720130424

[davidbfpo]

Within a much broader paper on the future of AQ, by the Canadian CSIS, is this passage:

In addition, at least a dozen or more key Core Al-Qaeda personnel are still being sheltered in Iran, including Saif al-Adl. If allowed their freedom, they could easily strengthen the existing central
leadership.

Link:https://www.csis.gc.ca/pblctns/cdmct...130501_eng.pdf