Japan nuclear disaster (new title)

[Cannoneer No. 4]

Military begins voluntary evacuation of families in Japan

http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/...japan-1.137999

YOKOSUKA NAVAL BASE, Japan — The U.S. military authorized voluntary evacuations of eligible family members of Defense Department personnel Thursday from bases in mainland Japan following increasing worries over nuclear reactors damaged in the country’s largest recorded earthquake.

Officials don’t know how heavy the demand will be, but the potential number of evacuees is in the thousands, Pentagon spokesman Col. David Lapan said. The primary means of evacuation will be commercial airlines and chartered flights, but if the demand is heavy, military aircraft will participate.

“This does not affect U.S. military personnel, does not affect civilian personnel. Only eligible family members,” Lapan said.

He added that the voluntary evacuation was precautionary and that he knew of no elevated radiation measurements at U.S. bases that prompted it.

The evacuations could start Friday morning, Navy officials in Japan said.

At bases across the country, families wrestled with whether to evacuate, splitting their families during the stressful time.

". . .the voluntary evacuation was precautionary and that he knew of no elevated radiation measurements at U.S. bases that prompted it."

Voluntary means self-inflicted. A NEO of choice and not of necessity. What are we strategically communicating to Host Nation when we abandon ship like this?

Seems to me that all U.S. military personnel sponsoring dependents in Japan are affected. Every last one of them now has to explain their personal decision to their spouse rather than just kiss 'em good-bye and tell 'em to quit crying and get on the G. D. bus. And not knowing what the demand is going to be ensures a Charlie Foxtrot at the departure airfields.

Oprah is on AFN Japan.

[anonamatic]

I think it's probably a wise precaution. Unlike the hysteria surrounding potential CONUS fallout, there is some sense to this. The Japanese 12 mile evacuation zone is too damned small, and both the power company and their government are not performing very well dealing with these problems. Having dealt directly with the Japanese government, this does not surprise me any. Weaseling, misdirection, and lying are pretty much their normal way of doing business. This can be seen both in the track record of the power company, and the constant state of near failure their government operates under. Those are their results, not my opinions. They're likely to keep having a lot of meetings, and keep doing too little.

The odds that there will be a meltdown of sufficient temperatures that the resultant gases reach superheated temperatures are extremely low, to the point of not being a very credible scenario. That is what it would take to generate dry particulate matter in the upper reaches of the atmosphere that could in turn potentially generate trans-oceanic fallout. Those sorts of temperatures are usually only achieved via a nuclear detonation.

Radioactive particulate matter escaping right now, and potentially in the future is doing so carried in steam. It's already wet, it's not dry matter, and it's heavy matter too. These are complex heavy molecules that are already wet, and are more than less likely to attract further condensation. Which means that it's very unlikely that they're going to dry out, magically float higher, and cause the easily paniced masses on the US west coast any trouble.

It does however mean that there's some serious potential for toxic ground fog to develop, and localized toxic rainfall. I say localized because even caught up in a rain storm, these are the first things that get rained out, not the last. Rain storms are cyclical, think about those thunderstorm models every weather report you've ever seen trot out during the summer. Storms are constantly replentishing themselves, until they lose sources of moisture, lose energy, lose material that acts to facilitate condensation, and stop. In this case, the steam acts as a comparatively low level (compared to the `we just poured out a cup of the Sun' levels of heat) gas in the atmosphere, and the particulate matter acts to seed condensation. This is material that wants to sink. Since it's primarily in steam, or in steamy smoke, it loses it's thermal energy very quickly. So the threat is localized, it will stay local, and none of the surrounding countries are at any great risk at this point. Some of the modeling that's out there in the press right now is based off of figures & data related to nuclear detonations, not comparatively cold and wet smoldering fires. These are obviously flawed models, but it's an easy communications based mistake to make when someone is asking you what would happen if the radioactive material did get that high, and not how would it get there, or if it was even possible.

However, people in Japan are, and if we're going to help, it makes a heck of a lot of sense to free servicemembers up to only have to worry about themselves, their own safety, and their mission. If I had family within 300 miles of those plants, I would evacuate them.

All of what I've said is my own opinion, and I'd certainly welcome any data based contradictions to it. I want to see these problems solved, and I don't want to contribute to the witless fear mongering that's pervading the press. I might remind SmallWars readers that you all are all too familiar with just how much the press is full of crap. This instance is no different than the litany of profit driven narrative lying that you've already become quite sadly used to seeing.

[CloseDanger]

Keep in mind, there are power issues as well as major logistics issues that Japan faces right now. The less population in affected areas, the better. Less to take care of. It is high time we restart NEO ops seeing what is happening to so many countries. Get them home and safe so the JOE's can do their work light hearted, not worrying about loved ones.

[Presley Cannady]

Originally Posted by anonamatic

I think it's probably a wise precaution. Unlike the hysteria surrounding potential CONUS fallout, there is some sense to this.

Fukushima is almost 200 miles north of Kanagawa. Readings taken 20 klicks away from the plant register on the order of hundredths of a microsievert per hour. I fail to see any cause for precaution here.

[Presley Cannady]

Originally Posted by Cannoneer No. 4

Voluntary means self-inflicted. A NEO of choice and not of necessity. What are we strategically communicating to Host Nation when we abandon ship like this?

Among other things, a national struggle with long division.

[Cannoneer No. 4]

http://www.stripes.com/first-militar...and+Stripes%29

About 233 of the 240 seats on the flight from Yokota to Seattle were filled, according to the Air Force, which said it was able to place all residents who wanted to leave Saturday on the flight.

As of 3 p.m. Saturday, 556 people at Yokota have signed up for the flights, according to the base public affairs office. There are expected to be 11 flights between now and March 27 out of Yokota.

Misawa base officials couldn’t say by 2 p.m. Saturday how many family members they think will want to fly out of Misawa. They were also still coordinating flights, and were unable to predict when the first planes carrying families would depart.

Misawa AB is the closest USFJ installation to the reactors, and a reasonable candidate IMHO for mandatory NEO.

At Naval Air Facility Atsugi, near Tokyo, officials began mustering families with pregnant women, infants and special needs at the base movie theater around 9:30 a.m., only to cancel the muster shortly afterward. Dozens of families had shown up at the theater with their luggage and pets. Officials issued a statement apologizing for the inconvenience, stating that things are very fluid right now.

Base officials were meeting Saturday afternoon to discuss departure times for the first flights.

USAEUR did no NEO for Chernobyl. By the time they knew what had happened everybody had pretty much absorbed their dose, sucked it up and drove on.

[Presley Cannady]

Originally Posted by Cannoneer No. 4

Misawa AB is the closest USFJ installation to the reactors, and a reasonable candidate IMHO for mandatory NEO.

Misawa is about thirty miles farther away (as the crow flies) from Fukushima than Yokosuka.

USAEUR did no NEO for Chernobyl.

How do you evacuate in the advance of an explosion you've no idea is coming?

[davidbfpo]

I know this matter slipped from view, but an IISS Strategic Comment is worth a read, partly as it identifies an issue which officialdom would rather keep from public view - nuclear security as illustrated by:

It was a missed opportunity that, for reasons of national security, nuclear-security issues were not included in stress tests of 143 reactors ordered by the European Union after Fukushima.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...ter-fukushima/

I noted that at the 2011 summit the UK became the 'lead' for one of the nine areas for work 'Protecting sensitive information related to nuclear security (United Kingdom)'. Given the history of HMG over the UK's own nuclear history an excellent choice, as one insider recently commented akin to "There are many decisions made where there are no official records".

[kowalskil]

1) Those interested in recently (?) measured radiation levels (at different distances from the Fukushima reactors in Japan) should see:

#http://www.meti.go.jp/earthquake/nuc...nitor02_01.pdf #
(dose levels measured 1 meter above the ground)

#http://www.meti.go.jp/earthquake/nuc...nitor02_02.pdf
(dose levels measured 1 centimeter above the ground)

Note that the color code is explained near the lower left corner of each display. Radiation levels are expressed in micro-Sieverts per hour. [The 10 micro-sieverts, for example, is the same as 0.01 mSv, etc. And 10 micro-Sievert/hour is the same as 0.24 mSv/day, or 7.2 mSv/month.]

2) How significant are these levels? The effect of penetrating radiation on a person depends on the dose received. The common unit of dose is Sievert (Sv). Smaller doses are expressed in milliseverts (mSv) or microseveret.

A dose of 10 Sv will most likely results in death, within a day or two.
5 Sv would kill about 50% of exposed people.
2 Sv can also be fatal, especially without prompt treatment.

0.25 Sv = 250 mSv is the limit for emergency workers in life-saving operations.
0.10 Sv = 100 mSv dose is clearly linked to later cancer risks.
0.05 Sv = 50 mSv is the yearly limit for radiation workers.

0.004 Sv= 4 mSv typical yearly dose due to natural radiation (cosmic rays, etc).
0.003 Sv= 3 mSV typical dose from mammogram

Ludwik Kowalski (see Wikipedia)
.

[dean1756]

Just joined up and the information in your post is just what I've been looking for. Many Thanks.

[kowalskil]

Radiation:Fukushima reactors update

The accident phase was enden in Fukushima, as described at:

http://tinyurl.com/8yshwhy

But the process of “decommisioning reactors” is expected to take 40 years.

Ludwik Kowalski
.