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#61 | ||||||
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Latitude 17° 5' 11N, Longitude 120° 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
Posts: 2,563
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The contention that AQ s driven by populaces who oppose their own governments and believe that support for AQ will change those governments has to be supported by convincing evidence and reasoning to be accepted. It can't simply be decreed. Quote:
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I seem to recall that not long ago the US told the government of Bahrain to listen to its people and implement reforms. I also recall that all we accomplished was to look impotent: they ignored us. I think you overrate the influence we can bring to bear.
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“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary” H.L. Mencken |
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#62 | ||||||||||
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Bob,
Some of your points are spot on, but your logic in my opinion jumps all over the place. I'll highlight a couple of your comments below, but ultimately what I would like you to explain is what do you propose we do differently? I hear your arguments about governance and they apply in some, maybe even most cases, but since you're not proposing trying to fix their governments, and assumingly you recognize the requirement for the U.S. to protect itself from terrorist attacks, what is the so what of your argument? I think most U.S. policy makers and senior military leaders have recognized that insurgencies are due to a "segment" of the population being disconnent with their government or the global order. That certainly doesn't mean in all cases that the government should change! We have Islamists in the U.S., a very small minority, who want to impose shari'a law. Should the government allow that? We have Aryan Nation types that want to purge our state and society of all except Christian whites. Should we allow that? Why are you always so aghast when a government decides to protect the state and their citizens from similiar groups? You keep saying the people, but in fact you are only referencing particular group that more often than not is a minority group that is opposing the government, so the people argument really doesn't carry a lot of water. It is especially weak when we're talking strictly terrorist organizations that are not capable of fomenting a mass movement. You have readily admited that if the insurgents win they may in fact install a worse government. Does anyone think the Vietnamese are better off under an oppressive communist government than they would have been under another system? There are times we have to make choices, tough choices where the best answer is often the lesser of two evils. In my 30 plus years working in East Asia (with an occassionalworking holiday in the Middle East and Africa) I trained the militaries of three dictators (South Korea, Philippines, and Thailand, and there was also Indonesia but I didn't get a chance to work with them). Now they're democracies, so I think an argument can be made that our efforts to "help" them from falling to communism created some political space that allowed them to evolve politically and socially, which unlikely wouldn't have happened under communism (Vietnam, Laos). Quote:
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True in some cases, in others there is nothing a government can or should do to appease Islamists and hard core communists who have a vision for a state that does not serve the people. For one, I am glad governments do fight these extremists, I hope they are generally fair to most people, and would make every effort to encourage that versus forcing it upon them. The U.S. you refer to is still aspirational, the reality is we have more people in prison than any other nation, hell we even privatized over 10% of our prisons and these fast growing businesses have lobbies that influence Congressional law making so they can maintain a high prision population. We are casting stones from a glass house. Quote:
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Very few turned to communism, Ho imposed it and brutally executed any political opponents, especially ones who were more popular. Lenin, Stalin, Mao, and Ho killed millions of their own people, so glory to the people, or maybe it was actually better to support the state? Quote:
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Last edited by Bill Moore; 12-03-2012 at 01:53 AM. Reason: modified, added |
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#63 | ||||
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,877
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#64 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 2,987
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Afghanistan. Was also done in Pakistan, Egypt, ..... long list, especially if you go back a bit.
Yes, old stories are relevant if there hasn't been a fundamental break with old practices. Quote:
Did you ever take notice of other countries' foreign policies? Or your own countries'? It's especially ironic as when the U.S. applies pressure, it very often hurts those foreign people first and foremost. Those alleged hundred of thousands of less births or children died of poor care in Iraq prior to 2001; they were -if true at all- the product of Saddam's AND U.S. policies. Almost all other countries wanted the sanctions lifted, only the U.S. and UK consistently kept all embargoes up. The lesson; never empower the US or UK to pull it off a second time, no open-ended UN embargoes any more! |
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#65 | ||
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 2,426
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AQ's message has always relied heavily on the pillar that Muslim populaces dissatisfied with their own situations of governance (under "apostate" regimes -i.e., regimes that have sold out to the West), must first break the sources of that corrupting external influence and support before they can find success at home. This is a bit part of their UW campaign message. They use this to recruit individual fighters and to solicit economic support and to find "sanctuary" for the nodes of their networked operations. People contribute to this for many reasons, but if it is hard evidence you seek, if you much touch the holes in Jesus's hands, look simply at products such as the report on foreign fighters in Iraq prepared by Dr Joe Felter several years ago, and then compare where those "foreign fighters" came from with where the "Arab Spring" later burst into action. AQ drew upon the the very high conditions of insurgency in those states and drew upon the sub-populaces who were most dissatisfied with their own governments. They traveled to Iraq not to help make Iraq part of some "Caliphate," but rather to help defeat this source of foreign influence so that they could finally find some success at home. Now, when those insurgencies did finally go active at home (with AQ support and influence), did the people all rally under an AQ flag and attempt to elevate AQ into the governance of their country or to join some "Caliphate"? Of course not. Again, revolution is not to bring some specific form of governance seen as good, revolution gains popular support to remove some system of governance widely deemed as bad. With success finally at hand after so many generations, why would anyone want to submit themselves to the extremist view of the world offered by AQ? Revolution, perhaps more than any other condition, makes for strange bedfellows. We need to stop judging people by who they associate with in times of great crisis and need, and instead appreciate the nature of all the relationships in play, and the primary purpose for action by the various parties. Bill says Quote:
We are too quick to jump in and help certain governments exercise their "rights" to defend themselves from their own insurgent populaces when we are in hot pursuit of the handful of AQ operatives working among those populaces conducting UW. We are so consumed by our own pursuit of our "right" to exact our revenge on AQ and to render them unable to conduct future attacks on the US and our interests that we forget our own reciprocal duties as well. It is time for governments under attack by non-state actors, be they insurgents at home, or regional UW/terrorist actors from abroad to stop using the "right to defend themselves" as rationale for acting in ways counter to their own principles and in ways that are so abusive of the sovereignty of others. It is time for governments to equally hold themselves to task for the "duty" part of that equation. The governments where the insurgent populaces live must (IE "have a duty") to listen to and seek to govern their entire populaces fairly and in a manner consistent with fundamental aspects of human nature (which manifest uniquely in every populace). Instead they cling to the status quo (not to be coerced by terrorism), and seek simply to "enforce the rule of law." When any nation seeks to vigorously enforce rule of law that is perceived as unjust by those that law is enforced against, it is tyranny. Doubly so when the government seeking to enforce those laws is perceived as having no legitimate right to do so by those they affect. We do not need to fix the national governance of others, but neither should we enable others to ignore their duties to their own people. What the US needs to focus on is updating our foreign policies so that we operate under the same principles abroad that we operate under at home. Our problem is not a domestic one (though that is growing as well), but rather a foreign one. Governance does not stop at borders, and US governance affects people around the globe. We have a duty to ensure to the degree possible that our governance does not provoke others to bring illegal violence back against us. Excessive pursuit of our right to defend ourselves does far more damage to make those perceptions worse, than the killing of a few particular actors serves to make things better. We celebrate our tactical victories, while we ignore our growing strategic failure. But boy do we love tactics. No nuance to interpret there. Dead is dead. Success, next target. We still have those rights, but we must tailor how we pursue those rights into the larger context of how we pursue our duties. You can't hand some one a gift with one hand, and then punch him in the face with the other and expect a positive result. We must subjugate all of our tactical actions of every nature to the larger strategic effects we seek to achieve. Currently we just measure tactical successes of tactical actions and then assume they will add up to strategic success. That does not work in this type of conflict.
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Robert C. Jones Intellectus Supra Scientia "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired) |
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#66 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 2,987
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The political opposition (minority) in a country often perceives rules given by the majority (and enforced through rule of law) as unjust, and very much ideology-driven minority partisans question the legitimacy of such acts at times (there's a prominent example these days). This doesn't mean there's tyranny at work. It requires very different criteria to be met. |
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#67 | ||||
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Latitude 17° 5' 11N, Longitude 120° 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
Posts: 2,563
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1. The "foreign fighter" phenomenon is not limited to Iraq, or to places where the fighters are fighting the US. Foreign fighters have appeared in numerous conflicts, most of which have no plausible connection to conditions in their home countries. Are you suggesting that foreign fighters who traveled to fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan or the Russians in Chechnya did so to defeat foreign influence in their home country? That Arabs who fought in Bosnia or the Tajik civil war were trying to affect governance at home? Or that foreign fighters in conflicts where the US is involved have a completely different set of motivations than foreign fighters in other conflicts? 2. Many foreign fighters who fought came form countries where foreign influence in general and US influence specifically have no meaningful place in sustaining the regime that ruled their home country. There's no imaginable reason why a Libyan or a Syrian would fight Americans in Iraq to remove a source of support for a government he disliked at home. These governments were not in any way supported or sustained by the US, but they still provided foreign fighters. 3. Studies based on interviews with captured foreign fighters do not reveal any hint of the motive that you suggest. In fact this idea is notably absent from every study of foreign fighters that I've seen. Now maybe it's true that everybody else looking at the problem is just a dumb city slicker wandering around in the bush missing all the signs that are clear to you alone... but is there not at least a chance that some of them aren't so ignorant? It would be useful if you could describe these signs nobody else sees in specific detail, not in generalities. Quote:
AQ's most notable failure to inspire revolution, of course, had nothing to do with the Arab Spring. Throughout the early to mid 1990s AQ tried desperately to provoke revolution in Saudi Arabia. Circumstances should have been ideal for this effort: he was coming off what was perceived as a great victory over the Soviets in Afghanistan, he had drawn extensive support within Saudi Arabia during that fight and had a deep network of contacts. Conditions in Saudi Arabia looked ripe: the oil glut had caused massive dislocation and the presence of American forces was a major irritant. Still the effort fell flat on its face. Osama was unable to generate anything even remotely approaching the critical mass needed to challenge the government. His message just didn't resonate: Saudis were more than willing to support his jihad against the Soviets, but when he took it home they weren't interested. It's not plausible that his failure was caused by exile and repression: the Ayatollah Khomeini, for one, had inspired a revolution from exile in an equally repressive environment bys mailing cassette tapes. His message resonated with Iranians, and repression failed. Osama just didn't have the support. That doesn't mean Saudis loved the royal family, it meant that they don't see AQ as a viable alternative. Again, AQ has certainly tried to push the narrative built around opposition to apostate regimes. That narrative hasn't really worked for them, though: they've only been able to draw widespread support when they've opposed foreign invaders in Muslim lands. Quote:
Your argument would be more effective if it referred to specific policies and specific countries, and gave examples of policies that you think are counterproductive and the policies you believe should replace them.
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“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary” H.L. Mencken Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-04-2012 at 12:29 PM. Reason: Fix quote |
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#68 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,450
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Bob,
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Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years. |
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#69 | ||||
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,877
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Posted by Fuches
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Has for noticing other nation's foreign policy, yes I do take notice. I watched first hand as the French still try to implement an oppressive policy in parts of Africa, on the other hand I have been impressed with the efforts of Norway to promote peace in many war torn areas through diplomacy. I have seen numerous countries push economic development programs, and of course trade deals, etc. If you have a particular point you like to make about German foreign policy please make it. Quote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4Pgp...yer_detailpage Quote:
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#70 | |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,877
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Posted by Bob's World
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Second, you have habit of conflating tactical operations and our national strategy. A Bde commander may very appropriately measure his success on tactical successes as they related to targets, securing an area, etc., but he is there to support a larger strategy that involves much more than what the military is doing. Name your JSOTF or JTF, they have tactical and operational level missions that have a strong military flavor that are supporting a larger strategy where all the elements of DIME are at play, and not just the U.S.. In some cases numerous nations are playing a strategic role openly or behind the scenes. SOF and GPF should be focused tactical successes, some of those tactical successes are enabled through indirect ways, but they're their to achieve the M in DIME. All elements of national power blend with one another to some degree, so it isn't as stove piped as it sounds. |
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#71 | ||||
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 2,987
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"No other nation in the world puts more pressure on governments to treat their people better than the U.S., (...) " The U.S. rarely does or did so at all. It's at times the cover for what it really presses for, though. The hypocrisy of opposing evil only when it's not useful is overwhelming. The mere words don't mean much. That's why the U.S.'s track record in this regard has such a weak pro side. Quote:
The power of philosophical and conceptual advances originating from these countries is much greater than whatever feeble attempts of good-willed and at the same time not utterly inept foreign policy the U.S. can bring up to compete. Quote:
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Opinions may vary, but I suppose it's only possible to see more positives than negatives by assuming more horrible things would have happened without this or that meddling. Then again, keep in mind that your country almost blew up the world in a conflict/rivalry which it hyped up itself and in which it fearmongered superbly, vastly exaggerating the problem. |
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#72 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Berkshire County, Mass.
Posts: 691
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Gardens are not made by singing ‘Oh, how beautiful,’ and sitting in the shade. – Rudyard Kipling |
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#73 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 2,426
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The fact that they killed many Muslim Iraqis is immaterial to their goals there, just as the fact that we killed many Muslim Iraqis was immaterial to ours. But for our operations to remove Saddam, there would not likely be any AQ in Iraq today, and very little Iranian influence as well. We need to own that.
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Robert C. Jones Intellectus Supra Scientia "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired) |
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#74 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 2,987
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The single best thing of the revolt was probably the code civil - do you want to claim this was due to U.S. influence? According to Wikipedia, it was the work of four French scholars and Napoleon. The chronological proximity and order of the American and French revolutions has been used to build up one more U.S. myth, but I don't subscribe to it. |
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#75 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,111
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Fuchs, Bill, all,
As we think about contributions towards 'the betterment of world' one place to look would be: List of Nobel laureates by country, From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tes_by_country
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Sapere Aude |
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#76 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Berkshire County, Mass.
Posts: 691
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So you are arguing that things either just happened to occur more quickly in France or just happened to take longer in Germany and Italy?
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Gardens are not made by singing ‘Oh, how beautiful,’ and sitting in the shade. – Rudyard Kipling |
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#77 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 2,987
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Can you point me at a francophone source, not suspicious of being partial to your view by birth, telling us that the colonists were an important and positive influence on the French Revolution? Or maybe a German one. Dutch? Spanish? I suppose there are some, but I doubt they would provide substantial food for a list of the U.S.' good deeds. To me, U.S. claims of being a big force for good always weep a lot of an U.S.-centric worldview. U.S. claims of being a bigger force for good than ugly add an unhealthy dose of disrespect or ignorance concerning the damage done to this. I don't think any country can really claim to be a huge force for good in the world. Especially not in the balance. The ones which do almost no harm and some good tend to be small, such as Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway - and the Dutch need to cope with their imperialism history just as the great powers have some graveyards of imperialism victims somewhere (including the U.S.). Foreign policy is -save for diplomatic efforts of some envoys such as some odd Scandinavians or Luxembourg's pols in some places- generally a poor direction for looking at in search for good deeds. Foreign policy is usually about gaming, being gamed or simply pursuing actual national interest (surprisingly rare). Almost all good deeds in this area have a smell of hypocrisy because of their selectivity or are by-products of or cover for something else. The stuff where one can really claim to have helped mankind advance is usually about ideas; philosophy and science mostly. That's overwhelmingly the product of individuals (hardly practical any more in many sciences) who either worked for profit or were employed to first and foremost bring forward their own country. U.S. myths and illusions about being a force for good are really as childish as equivalent German myths and illusions a hundred years ago were. (I'm often astonished how Americans still stick to conceptions and problems which European countries did shed between 120 and 20 year ago.) |
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#78 | ||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Berkshire County, Mass.
Posts: 691
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Gardens are not made by singing ‘Oh, how beautiful,’ and sitting in the shade. – Rudyard Kipling |
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#79 |
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 2,987
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There's no real reason to. Sometimes people discuss because they like to express their opinion, without an actual chance to convince the other participant(s) consciously.
It's actually a quite common style of discussion. |
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#80 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 2,426
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As they say, "there are no clean hands" in this business of being a powerful state that seeks to exercise interests abroad.
Some go in with the intent to get their hands dirty, or not caring, others do so inadvertently, but all get dirty. These countries also tend to logically prioritize their own interests in determining what outcomes they seek to promote. The US is no different in that regard. Where we differ is that we define as interests (particularly in the post Cold War era) broad concepts of promoting US leadership, US values and US democracy. I understand the attractive logic and good intentions behind why those "interests" made their way into our national security strategy, but I disagree with them very much and believe they actually lead us more often to do things that put our historic interests at risk, rather than make them more secure. Having good intentions is better than having bad intentions, but the nuance of one's intentions are typically lost on a popualce that finds themself on the reciving end of the actual engagement. There is, after all, no such thing as "friendly fire." (Oh, and the French very much bought into a form of the ideals of democracy developed during the American experience. The French also took those ideals on the road to "share" with "liberated" populaces in places such as Egypt and Spain and, like the US today, were always surprised when their well intended efforts were met with powerful resistance insurgencies from those recently liberated oppressed people.)
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Robert C. Jones Intellectus Supra Scientia "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired) |
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