Turkey mainly, Iraq and the Kurds (2006-2012)

[Norfolk]

Originally Posted by tequila

Much more likely a direct response to the killing of 15 Turkish soldiers last week.

The House resolution will make any U.S. request to Turkey much more expensive politically.

The PKK waves the red flag. This will not be unnoticed in Turkey.

If some of the PKK are looking for a fight, they've come to the right place. I just can't imagine why they'd deliberately bait the Turks. Do they actually believe that they'll be better off under Turkish Army occupation? There are at least 140,000 Turks on the frontier, and another 120,000 behind them engaged in keeping a lid on the local populations. Some of the Turkish generals have been champing at the bit for half a year, and the General Staff reportedly completed planning back in late June or early July.

It seems that almost all of the players, on both sides, are trying to drive the Turkish Government to kick over the applecart, and see what happens. Be careful what you wish for...

[Rex Brynen]

Originally Posted by Norfolk

If some of the PKK are looking for a fight, they've come to the right place. I just can't imagine why they'd deliberately bait the Turks. Do they actually believe that they'll be better off under Turkish Army occupation?

Yes, they may well think that: it would embroil Turkey in a messy political situation, drive a wedge in the always sensitive relationship between Ankara and the Kurdish Regional Government (and Ankara and Baghdad, and Ankara and Washington), give them easier targets, accentuate repression of Kurds in eastern Anatolia, undercut moderate Kurdish politicians in Turkey, and generally spur PKK recruitment (not only among Kurds in Turkey, but also others--there are a striking number of Iranian Kurds among PKK forces in northern Iraq).

Attacks intended to spur repression or overreaction are a common hallmark of insurgencies (or terrorism).

The downside for the PKK might be less Turkish intervention, but the PUK and especially KDP deciding that they had best deal with the issue themselves rather than risk the Turks having a go.

[wm]

Originally Posted by Rex Brynen

The downside for the PKK might be less Turkish intervention, but the PUK and especially KDP deciding that they had best deal with the issue themselves rather than risk the Turks having a go.

I see the option of internal resolution by the Kurds as a downside for the PKK only. It could produce a "win-win-win" situation for the Turks, US, and Iraq, IMO.

In fact, taking it a step farther, were the Iraqi government able to field a combined force of its three major groupings (Kurd, Sunni, Shi'a) to deal with the issue, it might even provide the centralized rallying point that seems to be missing from Iraq right now. (Sort of like the "We ain't shaving" incident that coalesced Lee Marvin's Dirty Dozen.) An alternative rallying call of "We Iraqis" against the Turks is not as palatable from a US perspective, but is also a possible outcome.

[jcustis]

Turkey to vote on Iraq incursion - CNN 17 Oct

Turkey's Parliament on Wednesday was expected to approve military action against Kurdish separatists based in Iraqi territory despite international efforts to avert the crisis.

Ankara has said that the operation will not immediately follow the motion, but Turkey has already massed 60,000 troops in the region. Over the weekend it shelled farms across the border.

So what's our next move, or at least the smartest one?

[wm]

Originally Posted by jcustis

Turkey to vote on Iraq incursion - CNN 17 Oct



So what's our next move, or at least the smartest one?

Hey, maybe we could sell arms to Iran, provide them with military advisors, and get them to cross over the border into Iraqi "Kurdistan" from the east as a counterbalance to the Turks crossing from the Northwest.
What am I thinking? That would be a non-starter. We don't like those Iranians ever since they took over our embassy. How about we send the 82d's DRB to Yerevan in Armenia and threaten to invade Turkey over the Caucacus and conduct a regime change if they cross over into Iraq? I'm sure the "Armenian Genocide Lobby" would back that one to the hilt.

Sorry, I misread your post. I thought you wanted the" least smartest" strategy.
I suspect the best thing for America to do is sit back and let the Turks and Iraqis figure it out on their own.

[Tom Odom]

I suspect the best thing for America to do is sit back and let the Turks and Iraqis figure it out on their own.

Oh Lordy I certainly hope so...somewhere in some closet in AEI there is an analyst coming up with a Guiness brilliant solution

Tom

[wm]

Here's a DoD press release. I find the folllowing extract rather interesting

The Defense Department sent Eric Edelman, undersecretary of defense for policy and former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, to explain the situation in Congress to his opposite number in the Turkish government. But the situation on the border with Iraq is potentially more serious, Morrell said.
. . .

He said the U.S. government is sympathetic to the fact that Turkey is suffering PKK terrorist attacks, but the best way to deal with this threat is through diplomatic means.

“We have urged the Turks to show restraint,” Morrell said. “We understand their frustration, we understand their anger, but we are urging them not to engage in cross-border operations.”

Part of America's expressed national strategy regarding terrorism is that it is better to fight the terrorists in some other country than to deal with them inside our own boundaries. However, we don't want the Turks using that same strategy. Hmmmm

[goesh]

they'll say the PKK is buying yellow cake from the US and come pouring across the border, launch air strikes and everything - this would be the perfect covert mission for Valerie Plame to infiltrate disguised as a Diplomat and nab the Turk's war plans

[georgev]

Turkish warplanes and helicopter gun-ships attack Kurdish rebels along Iraqi border Wednesday, order troops to cross over in pursuit

October 24, 2007, 4:12 PM (GMT+02:00)

A Turkish lawmaker disclosed that the Turkish attack began Sunday, Oct. 21, after more than 12 Turkish troops were killed in an ambush by rebel Kurdish PKK guerrillas. He said F-16 jets and artillery pounded at least 63 rebel positions inside the Kurdish-controlled region and 300 Turkish commandoes were dropped by helicopter into Iraq to hunt down PKK fighters.

There were other reports of Cobra and Super Cobra attack helicopters chasing Kurdish rebels three miles into Iraqi territory after Sunday’s deadly PKK ambush. According to earlier reports, the Turkish counter-attack left 32 Kurdish rebels dead and eight soldiers fell into PKK hands and are still missing.

While the US continues to urge restraint, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government faces angry demonstrations in Turkish towns demanding an immediate military incursion into Iraq to wipe out the PKK strongholds. Military action was overwhelmingly approved by the parliament in Ankara last week. This month, PKK fighters killed 42 Turkish soldiers and civilians in hit-and-run cross-border raids. Washington has also urged Iraq and its Kurdish leaders to crack down on the PKK hideouts.

Iraqi officials are due in Ankara Thursday to discuss the crisis after Turkish foreign minister Ali Babacan held talks with his Iraqi counterpart Hoshyar Zebari in Baghdad Tuesday.

[goesh]

http://www.iags.org/iraqpipelinewatch.htm

lists 461 attacks, many minor, on and in relation to pipelines and refineries since 2003 - PKK may well play this card and inflate the number

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

"Oct 25, 2007 5:49 | Updated Oct 25, 2007 10:53
Gates: More intel needed on Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq"

Rebels? I thought they were insurgents simply wanting a homeland of their own, much like the palestinians? A small slice of Iraq, a tiny piece of Turkey, a bit of Iran and presto! there is a Kurdistan, it even sounds almost like Palestine. An insurgency against Turkish economic, political and social oppression, 3 acres and a donkey for every Kurd, a perfect environment for COIN, smaller and more readily managed, no religious plurality to contend with, oil reserves, etc. Maybe Iran could convince them to settle for just a piece of Iraq and Turkey and be a partner in peace in the upcoming struggle with the US and Israel. Aftrer surviving Saddam and US double-dealing and more of Saddam's iron heel after the double-dealing, I really doubt they are going to passively lie down and fade away

[tequila]

Turkey launches ground operation in Iraq - AP, 22 Feb.

Turkish troops have launched a ground incursion across the border into Iraq in pursuit of separatist Kurdish rebels, the military said Friday — a move that dramatically escalates Turkey's conflict with the militants.

It is the first confirmed ground operation by the Turkish military into Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. It also raised concerns that it could trigger a wider conflict with the U.S.-backed Iraqi Kurds, despite Turkish assurances that its only target was the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.

The ground operation started after Turkish warplanes and artillery bombed suspected rebel targets on Thursday, the military said on its Web site. The ground incursion was backed by the Air Force, the statement said.

Turkey has conducted air raids against the PKK guerrillas in northern Iraq since December, with the help of U.S. intelligence, and it has periodically carried out so-called "hot pursuits" in which small units sometimes spend only a few hours inside Iraq.

The announcement of a cross-border, ground incursion of a type that Turkey carried out before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a major development in the conflict, which started in 1984 and has claimed as many as 40,000 lives.

The Kurdish militants are fighting for autonomy in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeast, and have carried out attacks on Turkish targets from bases in northern Iraq. The U.S. and the European Union consider the PKK a terrorist organization.

"The Turkish Armed Forces, which values Iraq's territorial integrity and its stability, will return as soon as planned goals are achieved," the military said. "The executed operation will prevent the region from being a permanent and safe base for the terrorists and will contribute to Iraq's stability and internal peace."

Private NTV television said 10,000 troops were taking part in the offensive and had penetrated six miles into Iraq ...

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation, 27 Feb 08:

U.S.-Turkish Relations: A Strategic Relationship Under Stress

This report attempts to illuminate recent events and the possible longer-term historical consequences of U.S.-Turkish relations, placing them in the context of the current strategic environment as well as considering their potential future implications. Differences in perception since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq exacerbated inherent divergences of attitudes in the relationship, culminating in a traumatic year in 2007. For the moment, however, any remaining chill between Washington and Ankara seems to be abating somewhat. Perhaps more importantly than provision of the now famous “real-time intelligence,” the United States has given its tacit approval to the Turkish military to stage quick ground operations and surgical strikes against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) camps in northern Iraq, apparently in return for Ankara to not attempt an invasion and prolonged occupation. Yet tensions remain. When Turkey entered northern Iraq on February 21,1 a State Department spokesman cautioned: "Our strong counsel to the Turkish government is to conclude, as quickly as possible, these operations, to limit them strictly and solely to PKK targets and to work directly with the Iraqi government."

The Turkish General Staff’s rationale behind the incursion is unclear, but possible reasons range from a deep-seated skepticism of the United States’ commitment to intelligence sharing and the quality of the data provided, to a possible calculation that Washington is too distracted by other foreign policy developments—such as Kosova’s declaration of independence—to mount a serious objection. In any case, Turkey’s bold maneuver pushes the envelope of the quid pro quo agreement—to forsake major military incursions into northern Iraq in return for increased intelligence sharing—and once again brings it under new strains.....

Complete 53 page paper at the link.

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation, 29 Feb 08:

Turkey and Northern Iraq: An Overview

In recent years, Turkish policy toward northern Iraq has been dominated by three factors:

• Recidivist Ottoman nostalgia and continued resentment at the loss of Mosul and the oil fields of Kirkuk;

• The use of northern Iraq by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as a platform for attacks into Turkey;

• Fears that the creation of a Kurdish political identity could further fuel separatist sentiments among its own already restive Kurdish minority.

In recent years, the Kurdistan Autonomous Region has developed many of the trappings of a fully fledged state. It currently remains unclear whether it will be able to extend its de jure as well as de facto control over the oil-rich province of Kirkuk. It is also unclear whether the recent cooperation between the KDP and the PUK is likely to be long-lasting. However, regardless of its form, there is likely to continue to be some form of Kurdish political entity in northern Iraq with many of the features, if not the name, of a state.

The PKK is militarily considerably weaker than when it was at the height of its powers in the early 1990s. In the continued absence of a state sponsor, maintaining its presence in the mountains of northern Iraq is of critical importance to the PKK’s ability to continue its insurgency.

However, in the longer term, the PKK is probably a distraction from other, more deep-rooted issues which are likely to remain on the agenda for the foreseeable future. At their heart lies the question of Kurdish identity and how to integrate Kurdish identity—or even multiple Kurdish identities—into the political map of the Middle East. Unfortunately, there do not currently appear to be any obvious answers. What is clear is that Turkey’s Kurdish policies, whether applied to its own citizens or the Iraqi Kurds, have not been successful. Nor is there any indication that they will be any more successful in the future.

Complete 24 page paper at the link.

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 24 Mar 08:

Unwelcome Guests: The Turkish Military Bases in Northern Iraq

Following the Turkish military’s raid on northern Iraq in late February, the little-known and poorly understood presence of Turkish military bases in Kurdish Iraq has become a major issue in relations between the two countries. On February 26, the parliament of the Kurdistan region of Iraq approved a motion calling on the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to demand the closure of all Turkish military bases in northern Iraq. The decision came during the incursion into northern Iraq by Turkish troops against elements of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and demonstrated not only the KRG’s often ambivalent attitude toward the presence of the PKK on the territory under its nominal control, but also the suspicions of many Iraqi Kurds that Turkey is using its war against the PKK as a pretext to stifle their own dreams of independence.

Turkey’s long-term military presence in northern Iraq has generated surprisingly little international attention. In the months leading up to the Turkish incursion in February, there was considerable debate about the impact that Turkish ground troops crossing the border might have on what has long been the most stable region of Iraq and almost none on the several thousand Turkish ground troops who have been deployed in northern Iraq for over a decade.....

[kaur]

Key Points

l PKK financing has shifted from state support to self-financing through diaspora funding and
drug trafficking.
l Some PKK financiers were arrested in Europe, but what seemed a larger operation in early
2007 has lost momentum.
l Turkey's incursion into Iraq has not ended the PKK's operations, and such military action
will need to be supported by efforts to fight the group's European financing if the threat
posed by the organisation is to be undermined in the medium term.

http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/d...803JIR-PKK.pdf

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 15 May 08:

PJAK in Northern Iraq: Tangled Interests and Proxy Wars

The Kurdish area in northern Iraq has become one of the most complex fronts in the war in Iraq, a place where Iranian, Turkish, Kurdish, Iraqi and American interests clash. An often perplexing role in the region’s conflicts is played by the Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) that engages in frequent clashes with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. PJAK claims its aims “are to unite the Kurdish and Iranian opposition, to change the oppressive Islamic regime in Iran and to establish a free democratic confederal system for the Kurds and the Iranian peoples”. Iran regularly accuses the movement of being a U.S.-funded proxy, but recent PJAK claims that Turkey used U.S. intelligence and U.S.-made bombs in an air raid on a PJAK target have brought the U.S.-PJAK relationship into question.....

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 29 May 08:

Turkey Launches Economic Offensive Against PKK Recruitment

On May 27, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced over $15.5 billion in additional state funding to complete the Southeast Anatolian Project (GAP), a huge irrigation and hydroelectric scheme in nine predominantly Kurdish provinces in southeastern Turkey. Speaking in Diyarbakir, the largest city in the region, Erdogan promised that the completion of GAP would create nearly four million new jobs in what has long been the most impoverished and underdeveloped area of the country—and the main recruiting ground for militant organizations such as the PKK. “This is a social restoration project,” declared Erdogan. “This initiative will restrict the terrorist organization’s field for exploitation”.....

.....since it came to power in November 2002, the AKP has failed either to rectify the disparity in socioeconomic conditions between southeastern Anatolia and the west of the country or to reduce the alienation felt by many Kurdish youths. Despite the apparently heavy losses suffered by the PKK in clashes with the Turkish security forces, there is still no indication of a decline in volunteers wishing to join the organization.

Even if the AKP is able to find the money to deliver the promises in the GAP Action Plan and create jobs and improve living standards, there are those who worry that—particularly when it comes to militant Kurdish nationalism—it is all too little, too late. “For years, the government deliberately kept the southeast underdeveloped because it thought the Kurds would be easier to control if they were poor and uneducated,” a retired high-ranking military official told Jamestown. “It was a mistake and we are paying the price with terrorists like the PKK. But even if we destroy the PKK, are the people there going to forget how they have been treated for decades?”

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 10 Jun 08:

Turkish Generals Admit Military and Intelligence Coordination with Iran

....Although it has long been assumed that security cooperation between Turkey and Iran has included both intelligence-sharing and the coordination of military operations against the PKK and PJAK, Basbug’s statement is the first public confirmation by a high-ranking Turkish military official. Turkey and Iran first signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on security cooperation on July 29, 2004, three months after PJAK’s inaugural congress in April 2004 and two months after the May 2004 decision by the PKK to return to violence following a five-year unilateral ceasefire. This agreement was reinforced on April 17, 2008, by a new MOU which foresaw a broadening and deepening of security cooperation between the two countries.

Speaking with journalists on the sidelines of an international conference in Istanbul organized by the Strategic Research and Study Center (SAREM), a think-tank established by the Turkish General Staff (TGS), Basbug dismissed suggestions that the two countries’ militaries had conducted any joint operations: “Iran and Turkey have been conducting coordinated, simultaneous operations on their respective borders,” said Basbug. “We are sharing intelligence with Iran. We are talking and making plans”....

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 13 Nov 08: Turkey and Iraqi Kurds: Conflict or Cooperation?

At a time when rising Arab-Kurdish tensions again threaten Iraq’s stability, neighbouring Turkey has begun to cast a large shadow over Iraqi Kurdistan. It has been a study in contrasts: Turkish jets periodically bomb suspected hideouts of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan, PKK) in northern Iraq, and Ankara expresses alarm at the prospect of Kurdish independence, yet at the same time has significantly deepened its ties to the Iraqi Kurdish region. Both Turkey and Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG, a term Turkey studiously avoids) would be well served by keeping ultra-nationalism at bay and continuing to invest in a relationship that, though fragile and buffeted by the many uncertainties surrounding Iraq, has proved remarkably pragmatic and fruitful......

[Schmedlap]

I was watching the Mosaic: World News from the Middle East program from Link TV this morning (podcast available from iTunes). I nearly spit my Irish Coffee all over my heart-clogging breakfast when I saw this report: EU to Remove Iranian Opposition Group from Terror List (translated by Mosaic from Al Arabiya TV, UAE). More at al-Arabiya (English) here.

PMOI (People's Mujahideen of Iran) / MEK (Mujahideen-e-Khalq) Wiki

I don't know if it would be prudent to operationally leverage MEK against Iran anytime soon, but it sure would be nice to have that leverage available as a bargaining chip. If the EU takes them off the FTO list, then maybe we will as well? And then we would have the option of openly working with them?

From an earlier piece from Jamestown: "Iran's military will engage Kurdish separatists whenever encountered, in exchange for Turkey's cooperation against the Iranian Mujahideen-e-Khalq movement"

And this from a more recent report: "Iraq plans to close a camp for Iranian dissidents who used to cross into Iran to mount assassinations and sabotage - a decision that has sharpened political differences between Baghdad and Washington."

More recently:

Iraq plans to extradite members of an Iranian armed opposition group who have "Iranian blood on their hands," Iraq's national security adviser said Friday during a visit to Tehran.

"Among the members of this group, some have the blood of Iraqi innocents on their hands (and) we will hand them over to Iraqi justice, and some who have Iranian blood on their hands we can hand over to Iran," said Muwafaq al-Rubaie.
- al-Arabiya

I wonder what the near-term fate of the MEK will be?

The latest news:

"Iran said the European Union would be committing a "political" act and may worsen relations if it struck the exiled People's Mujahedeen of Iran from a blacklist of terrorist groups... The EU will decide whether to take the group off the terror list this week."
- Bloomberg

It seems that there was (and possibly still is) a view within our camp that MEK, while Iran's terrorist, could have been (and maybe still is) our freedom fighter. Given the possible cooperation between Turkey and Iran to crack down on "their" mutual terrorists, and the pressure now being exerted upon MEK by Iraq, it seems that this long, drawn-out issue is now approaching an endgame of some sort. Is this an ally whom we want? I guess, more relevant - is this a group whom the new administration is willing to associate with?