Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 7 Jun 07: Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict: Make Haste Slowly

...The Georgian-Ossetian conflict has entered a new phase. Tbilisi has made strong moves to change the status quo, succeeding in sensitising the international community to its conflict with Russia and the need to change the negotiation and peacekeeping formats. It has increased the players in the zone of conflict, establishing a new temporary administrative unit in the areas of South Ossetia it controls, with an ethnic Ossetian, Dmitri Sanakoev, at its head. It is focusing on containing Russia and promoting Sanakeov, while delegitimising the de facto Ossetian leader, Eduard Kokoity. Because Tskhinvali appears ever more dependent on Moscow, however, Tbilisi says meaningful dialogue with it is impossible. But Tbilisi is making a mistake in failing to engage with Tskhinvali and with the Ossetian constituency in the areas it controls. The Georgian government’s steps are non-violent and development-oriented but their implementation is unilateral and so assertive that they are contributing to a perceptible and dangerous rise in tensions....

[Jedburgh]

CACI, 15 Oct 07: The August 2007 Bombing Incident in Georgia: Implications for the Euro-Atlantic Region

On August 6, 2007, an unidentified aircraft dropped a large air-to-surface missile near a newly upgraded Georgian military radar station, in the vicinity of the South Ossetian conflict zone. The bomb failed to detonate.

Subsequently, two groups of independent experts commissioned by European and American governments confirmed the Georgian government’s allegation that the military aircraft and explosive device, both of types not possessed by Georgia, entered Georgian airspace from the Russian Federation, fired rather than jettisoned the device, and then returned back to Russian airspace. A separate group of experts, convened by the Russian government and consisting only of Russians, nevertheless disputed these conclusions, finding no evidence of Russian involvement.

Why does this incident merit the publication of a Silk Road Paper? Several reasons make this relevant. First, the incident was not an isolated event, but rather part and parcel of an increasingly aggressive effort by Russia’s foreign policy establishment to undermine Georgia’s western orientation. Second, the broader context of the incident has important implications for Euro-Atlantic security interests. Third, the international reaction to the incident – particularly on the part of multilateral organizations such as the OSCE and EU – remained grossly inadequate. Fourth, it is imperative that the Euro-Atlantic community draw the right conclusions from this incident, for at least two reasons: to be better prepared for similar incidents in the future; and to avoid the adoption of policies that may inadvertently encourage this type of actions.

The incident constitutes a flagrant violation of Georgia’s sovereignty and is difficult to interpret as anything other than an act of war. In spite of this, European policy-makers, and particularly multilateral institutions, refrained from identifying, let alone condemning the aggressor. In so doing, they implicitly gave credence to Moscow’s seemingly outrageous assertion that for the second time in six months, Georgia bombed itself with aircraft and weaponry it does not possess, and for the sole purpose of blaming Russia for it. That assertion is eerily reminiscent of an incident that took place in 1993, during the war in Georgia’s breakaway republic of Abkhazia, when unmarked aircraft regularly pounded Georgian positions. Russia’s thendefense minister asserted that Georgia attacked its own positions in order to put the blame for its military weakness and territorial losses on Russia. When Georgian forces succeeded in downing a plane, they dragged out of its cockpit a Russian air force pilot in full uniform, with detailed instructions in his uniform pocket that unequivocally indicated his point of departure – an air base in southern Russia – and mission, to pound Georgian forces along the frontline......

Complete 83 page paper at the link.

[Stan]

"MOSCOW, November 8 (RIA Novosti) - The speaker of Russia's lower house of parliament said on Thursday that Georgia's claim that the Kremlin orchestrated mass unrest in Tbilisi was prompted by the United States."

Although no surprises in the article dumping blame, an interesting correlation that backs the Estonian claims of 'Russian-funded' unrest and violence.

Before declaring a 15-day state of emergency in Georgia, Saakashvili said on national television that Russia's special services were behind events in Tbilisi, where thousands of protesters had rallied for six days, calling for the president's resignation.

Saakashvili also said that according to Georgian special services, "an alternative government" has been formed in Russia, which "sent money and instructions."

Gryzlov expressed concern over clashes between protesters and riot police, who used tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets to disperse the rally on Wednesday. A total of 589 people were injured in the clashes, and 29 protesters remain in hospital, the country's Health Ministry said on Thursday. Police in Tbilisi detained 32 protesters.

The speaker stressed that Russia and its citizens are "not indifferent" to developments in the neighboring countries, and warned that the crisis in Georgia was "the beginning of bloodshed."

[Stan]

MOSCOW, November 7 (RIA Novosti) - American interference is aggravating relations between Georgia and its two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the chief of the Russian General Staff said on Wednesday.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is pushing his country for NATO membership, enjoyed until recently Western backing in his ongoing disputes with Russia, in particular over two breakaway regions that have strong ties with Moscow.

"Events in Georgia are occurring with the interference of the United States," Gen. Yury Baluyevsky said. "Who finances Georgia's $820 million military budget? Who is creating this force, which tomorrow might be used against its own people? I am not ruling this out."

Baluyevsky also said that an incident involving Russian peacekeepers in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia in late October was incited by Tbilisi.

[Jedburgh]

Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel, 16 Nov 07: Is Russia Behind an Orange Revolution in Georgia?

....It is clear that Saakashvili has upstaged the opposition by scheduling an early presidential election, for which the latter is unprepared. And it is likely that he will retain his post as the country’s president.

But the question remains – was Russia in any way involved in fermenting the unrest in Georgia and mobilizing the opposition that almost succeeded in brining down the pro-American president that Moscow so much disliked? Has Russia the capability and the resources to help stage its own version of an orange revolution in a post-Soviet state? Or is Moscow simply benefiting from a swell of genuine popular discontent against a leader who has clearly overstepped his boundaries? How will the West react to the opposition’s victory in Georgia? Will the new political regime be pro-Russian or continue the pro-Western and pro-NATO policies that Saakashvili introduced in 2004? How would Russia benefit from such a change in regime?

[Jedburgh]

Russia Profile, 14 Jul 08: A Conflict of Interests

South Ossetia, which is essentially a patchwork of ethnic Ossetian and Georgian villages with a total population estimated at 70,000, has been trying to break away from Georgia since the early 1990s. The recent assassination attempt against the pro-Georgian head of the Provisional Administration of South Ossetia, Dmitry Sanakoyev, shows that the conflict is heating up. Meanwhile, Russia’s support of the separatist authorities is unlikely to decrease, as Moscow wants to maintain its leverage in the region....

[Jedburgh]

EDM, 4 Aug 08: Moscow Orchestrates War Scare in South Ossetia

Since July 31, Russian state television channels have been airing inflammatory stories about Georgian forces firing on South Ossetia’s administrative center Tskhinvali, inflicting civilian casualties and causing a refugee exodus to North Ossetia. The allegations are not verified by any independent source nor can they be, given Russia’s exclusion of any meaningful international monitoring in South Ossetia, disabling the OSCE and precluding Georgian air surveillance.

Moscow’s propaganda wave closely resembles previous ones in the continuing political warfare against Georgia. For their part, leaders in Tskhinvali threaten to escalate the hostilities deeper inside Georgian territory, using “their own forces,” that is, a proxy war. “We will force [the Georgians] out from the conflict zone ourselves. I state once again that we have the necessary troops and equipment [sil i sredstv] to do this,” the South Ossetian “president” Eduard Kokoity warned.....

[Distiller]

Most of you will find this an obscure piece of news, but for Russia and the Caucasus this could be momentous: Last night open fighting broke out between the "separatist" forces of South Ossetia and the armed forces of Georgia.

This morning Russian TV showed Katyusha attacks during the night (by whom? on what? can't say -- do not trust propaganda! Russia says Georgia started). At the brake of daylight South Ossetian Su-25 attacked targets in Georgia. The U.N, security council is meeting just now they say (0430h GMT). Developing.

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2....3105&PageNum=0

[Jedburgh]

BBC, 8 Aug 08: Heavy Fighting in South Ossetia

Georgian forces and South Ossetian separatists have been exchanging heavy fire just hours after agreeing to a ceasefire and Russian-mediated talks.

Russian media reports said Georgia had launched a tank-led attack on the separatist stronghold of Tskhinvali, with at least 15 killed in shelling.

Georgia says its aim is to finish "a criminal regime" and restore order.

Moscow has called on the international community to jointly work "to avert massive bloodshed and new victims".

At Russia's request, members of the UN Security Council are to hold a rare emergency session shortly to discuss a response to the escalating violence.....

[kaur]

Let's wait what will say Lavrov, Medvedev and Putin.

When someone starts war, then he must vision the peace after war ... Which side started the war?

Felgenhauer writes:

Kokoity and other Ossetian officials seem to be bent on provoking a major Russian intervention, but apparently not everyone in Moscow is ready to plunge headlong into war.

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373294

If this is the truth, how will other participants save the face?

Dan Fried, the US assistant secretary of state, said Washington and Moscow would jointly work to end the fighting. “It appears that the South Ossetians have instigated this uptick in violence,” he said. “We have urged the Russians to urge their South Ossetian friends to pull back and show greater restraint. And we believe that the Russians are trying to do just that.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e29e178-6...nclick_check=1

[kaur]

How to win international support?

Georigian site in English.
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18957

Russian site in English.
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28640

[Rank amateur]

It's interesting that this is happening when the world's media is focused on the opening of the Olympic games.

[Rex Brynen]

If the Georgians are calculating that the Russian response will be muted because of the Olympics, I think they're badly miscalculating.

Nice footage of a Georgian BM-21 (?) battery fire at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7546639.stm (the BBC also have raw footage of Georgian CAS and Russian armor reinforcements).

[Rank amateur]

Originally Posted by Rex Brynen

If the Georgians are calculating that the Russian response will be muted because of the Olympics, I think they're badly miscalculating.

More likely Georgia decided that the best time to establish population control is when the media isn't watching. I suspect that's because they're not planning to emphasize winning hearts and minds.

[Norfolk]

Eurasia Daily Monitor reported last week that battalion of Russian Railroad Troops had finished a two month's reconstruction of a railroad that had been out of service since fighting back in 1992. With the 58th Army on the frontier, once that railroad was finished, the Georgians knew it was on. The Olympics of course are convenient to deflect international public opinion from Russian activities.

Apparently, the Russian reconnaissance battalion leading Russian troops into the South Ossetian capital today has been caught in a bit of a snare laid by the Georgians. Things are getting real interesting. I wonder if news from Abkhazia may not be far off.

Now I'm waiting to see what happens in Eritrea, too, with the imminent departure of the UN force there.

[Cougfootballfan]

been a while since theres been a good european war. I saw on the news that georgia was pulling its 1,000 troops out of iraq to help deal with this newest problem

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...12704620080808

[Stevely]

I hope the Georgians have learned well asymmetrical methods from its time in Iraq.

[Fuchs]

I'm almost sure that this won't become a full-scale war, but end in a few days with a cease-fire.

Reason:
A full war would be detrimental to Putin's interests.
He wants the Georgian government weakened, and eventually replaced by an at the very least neutral government.

I'm convinced that this isn't about South Ossetia, Abchasia or oil.
It's about the definition of the zone of influence of NATO/USA and Russia.
Ukraine and Georgia are the two prizes that are left in this East-West struggle, and Russia needs to destabilize their governments to pull them out of the Western influence zone into theirs.
Most importantly, it needs to prevent that they become NATO members. Warfare almost guarantees that they won't become members for a while.

The Georgian government has probably done a lethal mistake already with the apparently excessive violence against civilians.
The Russians can use this "multiple rocket launchers shot into villages/city full of civilians" thing to portrait the Georgian government as bad guys.
That would have two phenomenal advantages for Putin; disrupting the Georgian government for a higher chance of a new government and keeping Western support small.
We don't (officially) support civilians-massacring baddies, after all.

Putin has already won. His troops only need to capture some square kilometres in South Ossetia to keep the status quo ante (plus quasi-permanent presence of Russian troops in South Ossetia).
He would be stupid if he allowed an escalation or long duration of the war.

I told others that there's some major conventional war potential in Eastern Europe; especially one bloc against the other bloc's proxy was a viable scenario. I cared more about Ukraine because that country is much more relevant, though.
I encountered deaf ears mostly, and very few people seem to see the dangers of the struggles and alliance growth in Eastern Europe.

We tend to discuss celebrities' haircuts much more than vital alliance policy.

[Stevely]

That is a good analysis Fuchs.

[kaur]

Fuchs said:

I told others that there's some major conventional war potential in Eastern Europe; especially one bloc against the other bloc's proxy was a viable scenario. I cared more about Ukraine because that country is much more relevant, though

.

I suggest to read Russia's last foreign policy concept.

http://www.mid.ru/ns-osndoc.nsf/0e92...b?OpenDocument

Here Rogozin comments it.

http://www.kommersant.com/p917043/r_...ept_of_Russia/

If someone reads Russian official statements by MFA and President, it is wierd to read about that there are only two sides in conflict - bad Georgian armed forces and Russian peacekeepers plus Russian civilian citizens. There are no words about South Ossetian paramilitaries, volunteers from other parts of Russia etc. I would like you suggest to read the commentary I posted earlier 1more time.

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373294