Message from Iraq

[SWJED]

Message from Iraq

MNF-I counterinsurgency adviser and SWJ blogger Dave Kilcullen was featured in a 29 August op-ed piece in The Australian - Our Leaders Must Match Iraqis by Janet Alberechtsen.

Alberechtsen opens with a preview of what President Bush should expect during the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Sydney and quickly cuts to the quick in challenging those who “wish U.S. failure” in Iraq to answer two critical questions:

… Bush arrives in Sydney next week. Mostly, Bush's visit will attract open hostility from feral Bush-haters and quiet ridicule from many others. And the reason is Iraq.

Many have a vested interest in an American failure in Iraq. Not just the emotional anti-Bushies but also the more level-headed people who believe failure in Iraq is needed to puncture American hubris.

Those willing a failure in Iraq to vindicate their derision of Bush ought to answer two questions: Do they have an alternative solution? And what does a precipitate troop withdrawal mean for Iraqis?...

[Stickman]

I understand the assessment, and it is the same thing I've been hearing from a lot of smart people. However, if we're going to stay in towns and villages permanently (which is what we need to do to keep insurgents out permanently) we're going to need a lot more troops. If there is not the political will to reinstate the draft in the United States, then there is not the political will to win the war. There won't be enough manpower to do more than hold down a few villages at a time while the enemy operates out of any of the others. To provide security anywhere, the US and Iraqi forces need to provide it everywhere.

[kit]

Originally Posted by Stickman

I understand the assessment, and it is the same thing I've been hearing from a lot of smart people. However, if we're going to stay in towns and villages permanently (which is what we need to do to keep insurgents out permanently) we're going to need a lot more troops. If there is not the political will to reinstate the draft in the United States, then there is not the political will to win the war. There won't be enough manpower to do more than hold down a few villages at a time while the enemy operates out of any of the others. To provide security anywhere, the US and Iraqi forces need to provide it everywhere.

The problem is that IF we decided right now to reinstate the draft and greatly expand our pool of ground troops, it would be 2 or 3 YEARS before they could be deployed. That's not soon enough to affect the outcome in Iraq.

[marct]

Hi Stickman,

Originally Posted by Stickman

I understand the assessment, and it is the same thing I've been hearing from a lot of smart people. However, if we're going to stay in towns and villages permanently (which is what we need to do to keep insurgents out permanently) we're going to need a lot more troops.

This isn't necessarily valid - you may want to take a glance at the latest post from Dave Kilcullen.

Originally Posted by Stickman

If there is not the political will to reinstate the draft in the United States, then there is not the political will to win the war. There won't be enough manpower to do more than hold down a few villages at a time while the enemy operates out of any of the others. To provide security anywhere, the US and Iraqi forces need to provide it everywhere.

That doesn't really follow either. Re-instituting your draft would provide you with bodies, but probably not either he minds or skill sets needed for this type of a fight. Second, attempts to re-institute your draft would increase opposition to the wars currently underway, as well as continuing to feed the paranoic conspiracy theories put out by some of your left wingers. Third, "political will" sounds like a concrete concept, but it isn't. If there is a national popular will, then you will see an increase in the number of volunteers. If there is a move by your politicians to institute the draft, that will just be another case of old women (of both genders) sending young men and women to die without taking any risks themselves - once again, you will see an increase in civil disturbances which plays into the paranoic fantasies of some on the left.

[Cavguy]

Originally Posted by kit

The problem is that IF we decided right now to reinstate the draft and greatly expand our pool of ground troops, it would be 2 or 3 YEARS before they could be deployed. That's not soon enough to affect the outcome in Iraq.

Yeah, we said that in 2004 as well, when it was suggested to expand the army. The same argument was made - it will take 2-3 years, and we won't be there by 2007 in these numbers.

Gotta start sometime. As the columnists have said - you either start to cut missions or raise troops - depends on what our national strategy is.

[Tom Odom]

Originally Posted by Cavguy

Yeah, we said that in 2004 as well, when it was suggested to expand the army. The same argument was made - it will take 2-3 years, and we won't be there by 2007 in these numbers.

Gotta start sometime. As the columnists have said - you either start to cut missions or raise troops - depends on what our national strategy is.

Amen, Brother.

We said it in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004.

[Ken White]

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