Operations in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas

[SWJED]

Strategic Design Considerations for Operations in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Dust-up along the North-West Frontier by William McCallister at SWJ Blog.

Ideas as to what constitutes good governance various among individuals, groups and cultures. The current definition of good governance as outlined in a recent report on threats from safe havens and ungoverned areas is a case in point. The report defines governance as the “delivery of security, judicial, legal, regulatory, intelligence, economic, administration, social and political goods and public services, and the institutions through which they are delivered”. The definition implies a social service centric function for government emphasizing “delivery” and distribution of social services. It further implies that only democratic institutions are a safeguard against militancy, extremism and terrorism. Not all cultures view the role and function of government in quite the same way. Tribal society, particularly along the North-West frontier between Pakistan and Afghanistan judges the role and function of effective government quite differently...

[Ray]

An excellent read.

The SWJ "Strategic Design Considerations for Operations in Pakistan’s Tribal Areasust-up along the North-West Frontier" by William S. McCallister is one of the finest articles that has covered the psyche that governs the lawless badlands of western part of Pakistan.

Indeed, Pakistan is a curious mix of tribalism, feudalism, modernity, military supremacy and an attempt at democracy. It is an interesting pot pourri that does not mix and exude a pleasant aroma.

Pakistan is a country that has a serious identity crisis. It rejects its Indian past and is struggles to conjure an exclusiveness of being a historical separate indentity called the Indus Valley civilisation. This in fact encourages a further schism wherein the Mohajirs (immigrants from India due to the Partition) are forgotten and slighted! Interestingly, this search for a new identity ignores the fact that a large part of the Moslem population of pre Independent India were low caste convertees (to be free of the horrid caste system) or those who were converted to avoid the subjugation through the jezia (unbearable tax on non Moslem) or because of the Sword!

Thus, Pakistan is actually at war with itself and seized with a national schizophrenia, in a manner of speaking!

Jinnah, the Founder of Pakistan, was initially with the Congress Party and was not really concerned about the Moslem cause. But like all politicians when he realised that he could not wrest power from Gandhi and others, he took up the cause of Moslem's and for a separate homeland for the Moslems. It was merely a power quest that worked itself into a powerful political movement that brought about the birth of Pakistan. It was but a fait accompli without a solid foundation in reality of existence.

It is important to note what Jinnah had said in the inaugural address of the Pakistan Parliament. He had said:

We should begin to work in that spirit and in course of time all these angularities of the majority and minority communities, the Hindu community and the Muslim community, because even as regards Muslims you have Pathans, Punjabis, Shias, Sunnis and so on, and among the Hindus you have Brahmins, Vashnavas, Khatris, also Bengalis, Madrasis and so on, will vanish......

Now I think we should keep that in front of us as our ideal and you will find that in course of time Hindus would cease to be Hindus and Muslims would cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense, because that is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the State.

This indicates that Jinnah's main aim was for power and not for Islam!

The birth of Pakistan though rejoiced by the Moslems of India, actually put into place a power struggle amongst the various segments. The Mohajirs being more educated than those who were from the parts that became Pakistan took all the plum posts in the bureaucracy, judiciary, education etc. The actually population of what became West Pakistan, steeped in feudalism and power as the land owning "aristocracy" and the backbone of the Indian Army felt threatened. This is the genesis of the struggle in Pakistan between the military and democracy.

The Mohajirs , who were rootless but intelligent, realised that there had to be a common cause wherein their legitimacy as inheritors of the promised land was not up for the grabs, used Islam as the catch all for all eventualities. Given that Pakistan was created for Moslems, the military and the landed satraps could not contest this excellent ploy.

Kashmir came handy for the military, who used the Mohajir inspired identity of Islam to the hilt. The military sprang into action as the true defender of Islam and went to war. This ensured that the exchequer became military oriented and beholden to it for defending Islam, as the sword arm, and extracted their pound of flesh.

Islam being partial to an aggressive mindset accepted the military's domination over democratic norms and thus this psyche gave legitimacy to successive military govt and its stranglehold over the economy wherein the army put its finger in every economic pie. It also turned the Nelson's eye to the military's infiltration and thus stranglehold over the bureaucracy by appointing serving and retired military officers in important bureaucratic and economic appointments.

This unholy churn and mismatch of governance is the cause of Pakistan's woe wherein the democratic institutions and norms have been sabotage and totally put out of shape.

While Islam ruled supreme in Pakistan, it had not yet been encased ''in the show window''.

It was Zia, who ensured Pakistan breathed and slept Islam! It was again a Machevillian ploy of an illegitimate dictator to legitimise his regime and the US strategic interest in Afghanistan was his Allah given gift.

Zia's "vision" of Islamic predominance of all matters temporal is what has added to the identity crisis. Fundamentalist Wahhabism and the ummah, an unrealistic dream of all Moslems, has seized the people.

Therefore, all one can say is, Quo Vadis, Pakistan?

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 22 Sep 08: A Who’s Who of the Insurgency in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province: Part One – North and South Waziristan

Militants operating in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) include both Taliban and non-Taliban forces. However, the Taliban militants are much larger in number and have a lot more influence in the region. The Pakistani Taliban have close links with the Afghan Taliban and operate on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, also known as the Durand Line after the British diplomat who demarcated the boundary in 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand. The non-Taliban militants, on the other hand, are often pro-government and enjoy cordial ties with the Pakistan authorities and security forces......

[Jedburgh]

A pair of briefs from the Pakistan Security Research Unit, 22 Sep 08:

Future Prospects for FATA

The future of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal areas (FATA) has become the focus of intense anxiety and debate both within the country and in the wider international community. The problems, posed by the lawlessness of this strategic region for the ‘War on Terror’, hardly need stating, but there is little consensus regarding the way forward. Allegations of cross-border infiltration by a resurgent Taliban based in FATA have soured relations between Pakistan and the government of Hamid Karzai in neighbouring Afghanistan. Growing US and British casualties in Southern Afghanistan have raised concerns about Pakistan’s military effectiveness and commitment and have led to public debate about the necessity for US unilateral action within Pakistan’s tribal territory. There have also been claims that people in the intelligence services sympathised with the militants.....

Sectarian Violence in Pakistan's Kurram Agency

Since 2004, there has been intense violence in the FATA. What started in South Waziristan,slowly spread to North Waziristan in 2005 and then later to Bajaur and Mohamand Agency during 2006 and 2007. For the last two years, this violence has spread to the settled districts of the NWFP including Bannu, DI Khan, Peshawar and Swat. Led by the Taliban and its local supporters in the FATA and NWFP, this violence is posing a serious threat to the process of governance, challenging the writ of the State. Referred to by media as Talibanization, these developments have been the subject of intense academic, media and policy interest.

Unfortunately, this excessive focus on the Talibanization phenomenon, has not given adequate space to focus on the ongoing sectarian violence in Kurram Agency. Since 2007, sectarian killings have increased in the agency and have taken many lives. During the last two months (July-August 2008) alone, there have been around 300 casualties.

This briefing examines what is happening in Kurram Agency, and explores three questions: Why is there sectarian violence in this agency? Why has it escalated recently? And are there any connections between this violence and the violence that is happening in the neighbouring Agencies of the FATA?

[sullygoarmy]

A good article on Pakistan in the Economist as well:

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/...ry_id=12267391

[Jedburgh]

PSRU, 29 Sep 08: Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: An Agency by Agency Assessment

There are seven tribal agencies (Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Kurram, Orakzai, North Waziristan and South Waziristan) and six Frontier Regions (Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, D I Khan and Tank). They share a similar history and structure of ‘governance’ and -in varying degrees- all the agencies are suffering from the fallout from the US led War on Terror. However, they are not homogenous, and there are multiple actors in, and differing dynamics to, the conflicts in the tribal borderlands. The purpose of this briefing is to outline the differences between the agencies in terms of the nature of violence, the humanitarian situation and the prospects for improving the situation within the region, using both quantitative and qualitative methods.

There are clear limitations to such a research process, and accurate quantifiable assessment of the human security situation in the FATA is difficult. The region remains subject to a media blackout, and in cases where journalists are active, they are likely to be cautious and, understandably, exercise a degree of self-censorship with what they publish. In this context, the assessment below can only ever be illustrative rather than exhaustive, and it remains an assessment which probably represents a minimum baseline in terms of the extent of human suffering in the region, based on the collation of media reports. Notwithstanding a significant margin for error, the differences appear important, and, quantitatively, it seems that the agencies have not equally shared the insecurity in the region, suggesting some agencies may be more resilient than others to the Talibanization, whereas other may have simply submitted to the militant presence.

Complete 21-page brief at the link.

[Jedburgh]

PSRU, 20 Oct 08: Toward a Containment Strategy in the FATA

.....the least-worst option at present, is through a containment strategy for the FATA. Such a strategy would seek to insulate the FATA from the dynamics in Afghanistan and Pakistan, would seek to de-escalate the violence within the FATA, and would refocus the objectives of the US and Pakistan militaries. If such a strategy is to be effective it must be co-ordinated, it must operate at multiple levels, and it must be sustained because it will not be immediately effective. Recognising that not all the players in this strategy will be willing partners it is necessary also that recalibrated pressure forms part of the strategy.....

[davidbfpo]

Caught sight of this new report, written by a Pakistani analyst and will need a longer read, even a hard copy: http://mtblog.newyorker.com/online/b...ok_low-res.pdf

This seems the best place to add it.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

I missed this at the time of broadcasting (15th December 2008) by the BBC's premier documentary programme, Panorama and the reporter, Jane Corbin is good. It lasts 30; alongside the Pakistani Army and US Army explaining its actions the theme is on the wider apsects of UK CT having it's roots in Pakistan: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7

Some short clips of the terrain and interviews of failed suicide bombers too (later link made on suicide bombers thread).

davidbfpo

[Ron Humphrey]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

I missed this at the time of broadcasting (15th December 2008) by the BBC's premier documentary programme, Panorama and the reporter, Jane Corbin is good. It lasts 30; alongside the Pakistani Army and US Army explaining its actions the theme is on the wider apsects of UK CT having it's roots in Pakistan: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7

Some short clips of the terrain and interviews of failed suicide bombers too (later link made on suicide bombers thread).

davidbfpo

Only available in the UK

[davidbfpo]

Not sure why the link did not work outside the UK. This link goes to the Panorama website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/default.stm and then archived programmes for the item is: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7

If that fails (again) I can ask the BBC why somehow.

davidbfpo

[Ron Humphrey]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Not sure why the link did not work outside the UK. This link goes to the Panorama website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/default.stm and then archived programmes for the item is: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7

If that fails (again) I can ask the BBC why somehow.

davidbfpo

Just the Britain's Terror heartland vid says UK only

[Wana88]

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3850

"On Sunday, 25 more Taliban militants -- including a senior leader, Miraj Burki -- died in clashes with Pakistani security forces in Burki's strongholds in the Spinkai Raghzai and Tiarza areas of South Waziristan.

A resident of Jandola, interviewed by telephone, said that hundreds of troops along with heavy military hardware, including tanks and artillery pieces, were seen transiting the town last Tuesday. The troops were moving towards the Mehsud area, the stronghold of Baitullah Mehsud, head of Pakistan's largest militant group, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Baitullah's operational commander, Qari Hussain, is close to the al-Qaida leadership in the area, so the latter is expected to fully back the Taliban militants in the fighting with government forces.

The military action against Baitullah is being launched while the Pakistani military is still fighting a tough battle against Taliban militants in certain parts of the Malakand district, including the Swat valley. Critics have also questioned the rationale of Zardari's revealing the Waziristan operation well before it actually began."

[Wana88]

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=22464


Monday, June 01, 2009

By Mushtaq Yusufzai &
Irfan Burki

"PESHAWAR/WANA: Twenty-five militants, including a senior commander of Baitullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Miraj Burki, and six soldiers were killed and several others injured in the deadly clashes between the militants and security forces in the South Waziristan Agency (SWA) tribal region on Sunday night.
Other reports said 13 soldiers were killed and over two dozens injured in the two deadly attacks. Fierce fighting between the militants and security forces forced thousands of the tribal families to leave their homes in the Mehsud-inhabited areas."

Raises the imp question: Where are the AQ/IMU etc "guests" relocating to???

[Ron Humphrey]

Originally Posted by Wana88

Raises the imp question: Where are the AQ/IMU etc "guests" relocating to???

Guess it would be overly optimistic to hope that particular group will find no room at the inn.

[George L. Singleton]

Ron, Wana, et al:

Baitullah Mehsud was the man behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007. Mrs. Bhutto was the wife of current Pakistani President Zardari. I believe Zardari's military actions, which my sources say are hot, furious, and daily on-going in Wazaristan, are quite genuine and that Mehsud's demise is a clear cut goal for the Pakistani military currently.

North and South Waziristan have for too long been allowed to exist as terrorist "quasi states" within the theoretical boundaries of Pakistan.

Pakistan since it's inception in 1947 has had little control in these and other Norhtern Pakistan areas. Raj-era governance at the local levels was allowed to carry over in the founding of Pakistan, but then came the USSR invasion of Afghanistan, radicalization of the tribes and general Pakhtun population, and this and these religious terrorists, once the USSR was defeated and driven out, then turned on Pakistan, internally.

Around 7 million Pashtuns fled Afghanistan into Northern Pakistan during the war with the USSR. These millions of course kept having babies. Thus probably a majority of all Pakhtuns in Pakistan, numbering around 26 million total, likely have roots in and their familes came from [fled] Afghanistan for refugee camps and safe havens inside Pakistan.

Getting the displaced peoples, Pakhtuns and non-Pakhtuns alike out of the tent cities/refugee camps today and back into their home areas will require, must require permanent stationing of Pakistani military forces in areas never before permanently secured by garrisons, along with the Frontier Corp, which is made up largely of ethnic Pashuns, too.

My two cents this morning.

[Wana88]

Originally Posted by Ron Humphrey

Guess it would be overly optimistic to hope that particular group will find no room at the inn.

Ron:
The foreign "guests" have been in these environs (SWA) primarily since after 9/11 (in the 80s their presence was minimal in SWA; more ensconced in NWA and particularly west of Parachinar (Kurram) and across the Durand in the Tora Bora area and Bajaur. But the bulk made "comfortable" Peshawar's University Town, and also the new development, Hyatabad, their home base.

Today their tentacles extend throughout Pak and they actually have never felt "comfortable" amongst the Pushtuns. Pushtuns aren't the more malleable Punjabis, and other Asian Muslims. Most Pushtuns don't buy into the Khaleej Arab racist thesis that promotes an Islamic "hierarchy" with the Khaleejis at the top as the "purest of the pure." Pushtuns perceive selves as just as equal as the next Arab and the Arab's never took kindly to this (80s). Also the ancient, passed down, narrative amongst the Pushtun of being "Bani Israel." Until fairly recently, Pushtuns would proudly subscribe to being "Israelites" by descent. And vociferously deny that they were "Jews." Two different entities in their minds. Yet,another "narrative" the "Afghan-Arabs" have worked hard at in extinguishing with much success.

Instead, the Afghan Arabs encouraged the "Arab descendants" hypothesis to convince their hosts that the Pushtuns actually have a lot of THIER (Arab) blood in them thus were blood brothers. This BS --and the Arabs aren't bad at IO-- plus free room and board at the madrassas; plus offers of employment in the Khaleej have resonated...for now. But the underlying hate and hostility between the Pushtuns (especially those in the Pushtun core: Khyber, NWA and SWA) and the Arabs is strong and deep. Pushtuns, xenophobic as they are, if provided appropriate "incentives" would quickly sell these "Arab brothers" with the exception of some die hard/well indoctrinated Pushtuns.

[Ron Humphrey]

Originally Posted by Wana88

Ron:


Instead, the Afghan Arabs encouraged the "Arab descendants" hypothesis to convince their hosts that the Pushtuns actually have a lot of THIER (Arab) blood in them thus were blood brothers. This BS --and the Arabs aren't bad at IO-- plus free room and board at the madrassas; plus offers of employment in the Khaleej have resonated...for now. But the underlying hate and hostility between the Pushtuns (especially those in the Pushtun core: Khyber, NWA and SWA) and the Arabs is strong and deep. Pushtuns, xenophobic as they are, if provided appropriate "incentives" would quickly sell these "Arab brothers" with the exception of some die hard/well indoctrinated Pushtuns.

So could this lead one to conclude that the best way to encourage that last will be if the Pak military successfully follows the clearing their in the process of with good hold and build such as George referred to.?

[Wana88]

Originally Posted by George L. Singleton;

1)Baitullah Mehsud was the man behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007. "

2) North and South Waziristan have for too long been allowed to exist as terrorist "quasi states" within the theoretical boundaries of Pakistan.

3)...then came the USSR invasion of Afghanistan, radicalization of the tribes and general Pakhtun population, and this and these religious terrorists, once the USSR was defeated and driven out, then turned on Pakistan, internally.

4) Getting the displaced peoples, Pakhtuns and non-Pakhtuns .... back into their home areas will require, must require permanent stationing of Pakistani military forces in areas never before permanently secured by garrisons, along with the Frontier Corp, which is made up largely of ethnic Pashuns, too.

Just want to offer my two cents on these comments:
1)BM has never said he did it/was behind it. Raises question: what does HE (&TTP) gain by killing her?? Who else gains (and the list is LONG)?

2)Those who have proudly inhabited this area called "SWA" today would resent that statement. The truth is not so simple and is multifaceted. These qaums have been some of the most devoted followers of Pushtunwali (unwritten tribal code based on honor that predates Islam) and that has been their undoing vis-a-vis the Muslim/Arab "guests." Second, ask these proud, fiercely independent, residents if they'd wanted to join the state called "Pakistan" which would lead to being dominated by "foreigners" i.e. Punjabis. The answer is "no." They wanted to go their own way and/or rejoin their kin as part of Afghanistan. To obtain their "compliance" they were offered a semi-autonomous status within this new state. That is the only reason why outright war did not break out as in an insurgency at partition in '48. That was the deal. Ask a Pushtun from the FATA and he'll say he is an Afridi first, a Pushtun second, a Muslim third and a Pak fourth.

3)The Soviet genocide (primarily Pushtun focused) coupled with dictator Zia's manipulation/corruption and the rise of the Klashnikov and heroin culture coupled with the influx of every Tom, Dick and Abdullah from the Arab world who sought an adventure, has cost the social structure much.

4) Agree with aggressive and permanent, stationing in the settled areas of the NWFP; but to have non-Pushtun soldiers permanently based in SWA etc would be something that would not accepted by the tribes. Instead, negotiating w/the elders/maliks of each khel and to bolster the Frontier Corps would be best for now.
If the non-Pushtun seek to subdue the Pushtuns and to bring them into the state's fold they need to do it slowly with sincere offers of economic assistance and development which the locals want/have wanted for a while. But given Pak's current situation, this is unlikely to be forthcoming

[George L. Singleton]

Wana88:

Telephone recorded evidence (you can read it on the Internet if you like) and comments by Batulla himself state he was the master planner behind the murder of Mrs. Bhutto.

What was gained? Chaos, which always benefits the terrorist cause inside Pakistan. Plus the terrorists were and are very much against "democracy" and the PPP which advocated more democracy and a more sectarian society.

Bearing in mind it was indeed long ago, bit I did live and work in Paksitan for almost two years, and later did business with Pakistan folks as an international banker. My comments today are built from current tense friends, locals, inside Pakistan, not "opinions."

Thanks for your reply, but Massud is the bad guy and President Zardari has the motivation of his wife's murder to go after him, and that he/the Pak military are doing, and I hope continue to do until he and his league of terrorists are wiped out.