Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[kaur]

This guy on the left was in Slovyansk.

[OUTLAW 09]

This guy on the left was in Slovyansk.

kaur---go back and watch this video posted by the Ukrainian SBU and carried by CNN.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...ns-344594.html

Yes you are right the beard is red but then check the black and greying areas of the other photos and then realize that special operations units all work with facial makeup ie either fake beards and or beard coloring which is the case in the red photo---was a bad hair dyeing case of red as it did not blend well with the real black and grey colors---by the way red is an easy color to wash out.

Would tend to go with the SBU's photo ID work.

[kaur]

This read beard is identified as deputy head of "Vostok" unit Hamzat Gairbekov (начальник разведки ныне расформированного батальона ГРУ "Восток" Хамзат Гайрбеков). In Russian internet you can find some additional information about this guy.

from the video

00:39 "CNN can't confirm the authenticity of the images. Some are poor quality"

This is the cossack vs Gairbekov.

[kaur]

1 more

[davidbfpo]

In a rather curious way I didn't expect a headlin akin to 'Blame the Germans', but The Daily Beast has this headline 'Germany Helped Prep Russia for War, U.S. Sources Say':
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...urces-say.html

The most significant passage comes at the end:

The Russians also changed their doctrine to reflect that they viewed the threat as not coming from a conventional war, but from the need to protect Russian populations in unstable states facing what they deemed to be Western aggression.

“This wasn’t just about implementing lessons learned from [the 2008 invasion of] Georgia, it was about giving them a basis for a different kind of operations,” said Fiona Hill, a former top intelligence official on Russia, now with the Brookings Institution. “We should have been paying more attention to this. There have been these signals for a long time, but we have been misreading them.”

[OUTLAW 09]

This read beard is identified as deputy head of "Vostok" unit Hamzat Gairbekov (начальник разведки ныне расформированного батальона ГРУ "Восток" Хамзат Гайрбеков). In Russian internet you can find some additional information about this guy.

from the video

This is the cossack vs Gairbekov.

kaur---turn the photo sideways and I think the left ear are matches. Actually your last photo if turned having the individual looking straight ahead and showing the left ear---are the same individual---ears are far more accurate as the Israeli's will tell you.

[OUTLAW 09]

In a rather curious way I didn't expect a headlin akin to 'Blame the Germans', but The Daily Beast has this headline 'Germany Helped Prep Russia for War, U.S. Sources Say':
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...urces-say.html

The most significant passage comes at the end:

David---the exercises referenced in Germany were Atlas Vision 12 and 13 with 14 having been cancelled which was scheduled for to be in Russia in 2014.

What was completed in December 2012 in Garmish was viewed as being historic and the Russians used the term historic and anyone knowing Russians know they do not use the term historic lightly but the majority of the Army officers including the COL who had been the Army rep in Moscow failed to grasp the significance--what was missing was the merging of the US staff decision making process over the Russian decision making process which if one thinks about it is in the fact the missing key when creating simulation generated scenarios which is where Rheinmetal was working---the Germans had a high respect for the US Army simulation center located in Grafenwoehr Germany and was aware of it's capabilities which by the way one similar one was built in Poland together with the US software platforms and do not think for a moment the FSB does not watch Poland and or not have it's agents inside the Polish Army as the old SB worked closely with the KGB.

Remember also the Germans had representative trainer staff at the Special Forces International Training Center in southern Germany and where aware of the various training SF scenarios.

In conversations with German staff process instructors in Oberammergau in late 2012---even though they have been around the US for a long number of years the MDMP process as we had developed it during Iraq and AFG which was evolving and which was no longer what one found in the doctrine manual---even in 2012 they still really did not get it and would openly say it---that is what the Russians were after.

The senior Russian officers during both exercises would often say that it was the US that had over 13 years of professional combat experience and that was what they wanted to emulate.

Hill was the last USAREUR Russian intel analyst in Europe and she was sent home in early 2013 with the explanation there is no longer a need for Russian analysts--not surprised she is at Brookings---she was solid in her work---she watched me work the senior officers and was always surprised at what they were telling me but again no one wanted to write a single intel report on what she and I were hearing---they were more interested in who was the GRU guy.

[kaur]

Outlaw, I'm not nose and ear specialist

Let's try this way with voice.

Watch this movie from 4:13 http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SOXg_YJGhsU

Watch this movie from 3:33 http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cQjJ5rWzlSY

I think that Soviets already know that political warfare thing and this is not something new for Russians.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Re-Launch of anti-terrorist campaign:

Ukraine’s acting president called for the relaunch of an anti-terrorist operation in the east of the country on Tuesday after the body of a local politician from his own party was found showing signs of torture.

Oleksander Turchynov said in a statement that “brutally tortured” bodies had been found near the city of Slaviansk, which is in the hands of pro-Russian militants. One was that of Volodymyr Rybak, a member of Turchinov’s Batkivshchyna party, who had recently been abducted by “terrorists.”

“These crimes are being carried out with the full support and indulgence of the Russian Federation,” he said. “I call on the security agencies to relaunch and carry out effective anti-terrorist measures, with the aim of protecting Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine from terrorists.”

In a statement from regional headquarters in Donetsk, police said the body of a man who died a violent death had been found in the Seversky-Donets river and that it resembled Rybak, a local councillor in the town of Horlivka, near Donetsk.

[carl]

The myth I meant is the myth of the social contract, that all the citizens of a country somehow agreed to be part of that country and be bound by its laws. Did you every make such an agreement?
BTW what in Switzerland would be worth the trouble of invading the place?

No myth. You live it every day. Synonyms for contract include arrangement, understanding and compact. So if you don't like social contract, you can use arrangement by which we live. However you describe it, it is. It can be as simple as following the rules of courtesy or as complicated at riparian law, but it is and you and I live by it.

Your question should more properly be, what in Switzerland is worth fighting the Swiss to get it.?

[wm]

No myth. You live it every day. Synonyms for contract include arrangement, understanding and compact. So if you don't like social contract, you can use arrangement by which we live. However you describe it, it is. It can be as simple as following the rules of courtesy or as complicated at riparian law, but it is and you and I live by it.

Your question should more properly be, what in Switzerland is worth fighting the Swiss to get it.?

Your synonyms are different forms of the same myth. In the US at least only naturalized citizens every make something like the agreement required to give the government any legitimate limitation of your freedom in a politic system that takes rights as primitive, meaning without antecedent causality for their existence. For the rest of us, it might be a verbal contract that is only as good as the paper on which it is printed.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Just for fun ...

The myth of the Social Contract is a necessity of a liberal society. Hobbes needed something beyond religion to explain why were no longer engaged in the war of all against all. Since that was before the recognition that man is simply a social animal and huddles together in groups naturally, and despite the fact that Socrates noted that man was a political (social) animal, the myth of the Social contract was created. Others like Locke added to it, although Locke believed that man lived in a moral state of nature in effect, denying the idea of “the fall from grace”. Still, unable to finding our social nature in secular theory, Locke’s ideas rested on that morality origins in God-given commands to act in a moral way. Rousseau came the closest to a secular theory for man’s social nature, although he did cling to the idea of the “fall from grace” as the reason for property rights.

That is the basis of the individual in relation to society. Rousseau went farther to argue that from that state of nature, the only way to defend ourselves was to create limitation on our natural rights.

Through the collective renunciation of the individual rights and freedom that one has in the State of Nature, and the transfer of these rights to the collective body, a new ‘person’, as it were, is formed. The sovereign is thus formed when free and equal persons come together and agree to create themselves anew as a single body, directed to the good of all considered together. So, just as individual wills are directed towards individual interests, the general will, once formed, is directed towards the common good, understood and agreed to collectively. Included in this version of the social contract is the idea of reciprocated duties: the sovereign is committed to the good of the individuals who constitute it, and each individual is likewise committed to the good of the whole. Given this, individuals cannot be given liberty to decide whether it is in their own interests to fulfill their duties to the Sovereign, while at the same time being allowed to reap the benefits of citizenship. They must be made to conform themselves to the general will, they must be “forced to be free”

http://www.iep.utm.edu/soc-cont/

[TheCurmudgeon]

... and so it begins ...

The U.S. military in Europe is sending four company-sized infantry units, a total of about 600 soldiers, to Eastern Europe, the latest effort to reassure NATO allies in light of Russian aggression in Ukraine, a Pentagon official said Tuesday.

Four countries — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — each will receive a company of paratroopers from the U.S. Army’s 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team based in Vicenza, Italy, said Pentagon spokesman Rear. Adm. John Kirby.

U.S. European Command will maintain a rotation of ground forces in those countries for at least the next several months. The companies will conduct live-fire training exercises with local military forces for about one month, then will depart and be replaced by another U.S. Army company, Kirby said.

“What we’re after here is persistent presence, a persistent rotational presence,” Kirby said.

The deployments are “the first in a series of expanded U.S. land forces training activities” in Eastern Europe that will be announced in the coming week, Kirby said.

“Since Russian aggression in Ukraine, we have been constantly looking for ways to reassure our allies and partners … of our commitment to Article 5,” Kirby said, referring to the key element of the NATO alliance treaty that states an attack on one of the 28 member countries will be considered an attack on all.

Get what you can there fast, the rest takes more time ...

[wm]

Just for fun ...

The myth of the Social Contract is a necessity of a liberal society. Hobbes needed something beyond religion to explain why were no longer engaged in the war of all against all. Since that was before the recognition that man is simply a social animal and huddles together in groups naturally, and despite the fact that Socrates noted that man was a political (social) animal, the myth of the Social contract was created. Others like Locke added to it, although Locke believed that man lived in a moral state of nature in effect, denying the idea of “the fall from grace”. Still, unable to finding our social nature in secular theory, Locke’s ideas rested on that morality origins in God-given commands to act in a moral way. Rousseau came the closest to a secular theory for man’s social nature, although he did cling to the idea of the “fall from grace” as the reason for property rights.

That is the basis of the individual in relation to society. Rousseau went farther to argue that from that state of nature, the only way to defend ourselves was to create limitation on our natural rights.

http://www.iep.utm.edu/soc-cont/

Hobbes actually claimed that mankind has a duty to seek peace and that creating the the Great Leviathan (AKA a government) is the only way to do that. In Hobbes' view, people have no right of revolution either--if your governance is bad, you must just suck it down. The state of nature would be even worse.

For Locke things are a little better because Locke starts from a state of nature where natural resources are not scares(scarcity is a fact for Hobbes). As a result Locke's social contract focuses on rights rather than duties.

Rousseau seems to waffle on rights and duties.

So again, part of the myth includes one's view of the state of nature out of which a group of folks come together to form a nation/government.

However, to one of Stan's points and his parenthetic claim of identity above, even though we were social before we were human, that does not necessarily mean we were political as well. Being political does not equal being social. I think both Plato and Aristotle, the first 2 Western political theorists, at least the first two with significant extant written work, agree on that point.

[TheCurmudgeon]

However, to one of Stan's points and his parenthetic claim of identity above, even though we were social before we were human, that does not necessarily mean we were political as well. Being political does not equal being social. I think both Plato and Aristotle, the first 2 Western political theorists, at least the first two with significant extant written work, agree on that point.

I agree, it is the quote from Aristotle about man being a political animal can be interpreted as simply a recognition that man is a social animal, not prone to living alone.

Aristotle lays the foundations for his political theory in Politics book I by arguing that the city-state and political rule are “natural.” The argument begins with a schematic, quasi-historical account of the development of the city-state out of simpler communities. First, individual human beings combined in pairs because they could not exist apart. The male and female joined in order to reproduce, and the master and slave came together for self-preservation. The natural master used his intellect to rule, and the natural slave employed his body to labor. Second, the household arose naturally from these primitive communities in order to serve everyday needs. Third, when several households combined for further needs a village emerged also according to nature. Finally, “the complete community, formed from several villages, is a city-state, which at once attains the limit of self-sufficiency, roughly speaking. It comes to be for the sake of life, and exists for the sake of the good life” (I.2.1252b27–30).

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ar...pplement3.html

As noted later, a thing is either natural, as in it exists that way in a natural state, or it is crafted; created by man. Modern theorists need to alter that view by claiming that Aristotle must have meant something else:

For on Aristotle's theory a thing either exists by nature or by craft; it cannot do both. (This difficulty is posed by David Keyt.) Aristotle can seemingly escape this dilemma only if it is supposed that he speaks of the city-state as “natural” in another sense of the term.

But I believe Aristotle meant exactly what he said. Man has a natural proclivity to live in groups. Therefore, the "Social contract" is a natural condition of man. The government that man builds to protect man from his fellow man is artificial.

For example, he might mean that it is “natural” in the extended sense that it arises from human natural inclinations (to live in communities) for the sake of human natural ends, but that it remains unfinished until a lawgiver provides it with a constitution.

Later theorists don't start with the social man. They start with man as an individual who only comes together in groups for the common good. That is backwards ... if you believe Aristotle ... and I'm with him.

Also, we should probably get back to the subject of the thread ....

[kaur]

Here is nice show going on in Eastern Ukraine. Local elite let's Russian specialists play their Ukraine splitting game, unless they lose their business empire.

All the indications are that the separatists’ actions are being supported by a large part of the local power elite, including Rinat Akhmetov, the richest and most influential person in the country’s east. His statements show that he supports the idea of the region’s autonomy; he has declared himself in favour of negotiations with the separatists, and opposes the use of force by Kyiv. The separatists’ activities have also been openly supported by some deputies from the Party of Regions and the Communist Party. The lack of response from the local police and SBU branches means that Kyiv has effectively lost control of them, and that they are now subordinate to the local elites.

http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/...n-part-country

What is the IQ of this guy (starts at 1:00 asking help from Putin in Russian)? Does he representative of majority of this regions people? This must be joke.

http://lifenews.ru/news/131658

This is the cadre that is coordinating this low level show there. There is SBU intercepted calls. Russian guy admits that he has been in Ukraine lately and Crimea leader Aksenov's advisor (direct link to Crimea cossacks unit)and other people. He gives also order to talk to Lifenews correspondent (which channel is most active there) and gives instructions what political demands are.

http://gordonua.com/news/separatism/...som-19005.html

This is just one cadre representative from Russia. There are also much high ranking guys pulling string ...

Russian plan in Ukraine?

С учетом коммерциализации украинской властвующей элиты, наиболее значимым является экономический канал воздействия, затрагивающий личные интересы наиболее влиятельных лиц из украинской властвующей элиты. Предварительный анализ структур бизнеса Фирташа, Ахметова, Пинчука, Порошенко и других ключевых фигур, определяющих украинскую политику (преимущественно в антироссийском прозападном направлении), свидетельствует об их критической зависимости от российских кредиторов, рынков сбыта, источников сырья. Большой эффект может дать активизация других украинских бизнесменов, имеющих большой потенциал политического влияния. Наряду с государственными корпорациями оказать влияние на них могут ведущие активную работу на Украине Альфа-банк, Лукойл, АФК "Система"; компания "РУСАЛ", Группа компаний "ЕВРАЗ" и др. частные структуры, которые также целесообразно вовлечь в работу.

http://gazeta.zn.ua/internal/o-kompl...process-_.html

I say it one more time. This small bunch of spoilers on the ground is for Predator operator peace of cake. Ukrainians don't have the capacity, Americans won't provide it and show goes on. Sorry, now the Geneva deal is not allowing this kind of action. Provocators, stage is yours.

[carl]

Your synonyms are different forms of the same myth. In the US at least only naturalized citizens every make something like the agreement required to give the government any legitimate limitation of your freedom in a politic system that takes rights as primitive, meaning without antecedent causality for their existence. For the rest of us, it might be a verbal contract that is only as good as the paper on which it is printed.

You may say it is a myth, but I am pretty simple so I can only go by what I see and live. And what I see as I'm living is people abiding by a whole host of unwritten rules and disapproving of those who do not and pressuring them in an informal way to abide by those rules. What I see is people recognizing and abiding by an implicit understanding of what is acceptable and what is not, a social contract so to speak. I hold a door open for an old person or a woman or a child I get a thank you and a pleasant nod. I got in line I get a sharp glance and perhaps a sharp word. There are multiple examples of that every day.

You are entirely wrong about "only naturalized citizens". My personal experience is that recent Mexcian border crossers, both legal and illegal, are quite willing to live by the implicit social contract that defines everyday life in the US but have trouble doing that on occasion because they don't know what it is. There used to be a program in Colorado for guys like that. It was called the 'Living in America' program that would teach what the parameters of that social contract were. They would get picked up for doing something that was ok down south but not here, like driving around on a Friday night with a few buddies and a case of beer. The idea of the program was to tell them that no, you can't do that here and there are some other things you can't do too. I read even though the program was mostly meant as a sentencing provision some people signed up for it on their own because they wanted to know what was acceptable in the US ans what was not, the outlines of the implicit social contract.

[carl]

Despite all the calls for direct action now least the West be seen as emboldening Putin or appeasing him, I think that is misreading the situation. Putin's aspiration are clear to those that can see things through the his eyes, but they are nominal ... limited.

While the author views this statement as an ominous threat to Germany, I could read it as an attempt to get Westerners to understand his mostly ethnic motivations. In the earlier paragraph he refers to the Ukrainians as a separate, people. This could be a ruse, but I see it more as a view into how he thinks. As the rest of the statement says, he expects Westerners to understand what he sees as an ethnic minority/majority seeking to join their brethren. Just as Westerners feel the need to help fledgling democracies, he feels the need to help repressed Russians. Our SF are designed to go in and help freedom fighters; his are doing the same.

From that perspective the best tact might be to pursue stabilization and self determination. Agree to the peacekeepers and establish elections. If Putin is confident then he will agree (but hedge his bets by keeping his spetsnaz in place). Still, it creates a defacto line. If he does not agree than it is an indication of more to come (beyond the obvious ethnic enclaves in places like Estonia).

I didn't see anything in the article you cited nor do I see anything in the actions of Putin's Russia that suggests their goals are limited. Indeed immediately after the sentence you put in bold comes this sentence "This suggests a vision, shaped by views of history, that goes beyond protecting minority Russian speakers in the “near-abroad.”" The entire article spoke of how Putin seems to be filled with visions of a glorious Russian past and strongly suggests that restoring that glory is his prime motivation. That is not a limited goal.

I don't see anything in Russian actions that suggest Putin's goals are limited either. The moves into Crimea and east Ukraine were very well organized moves by Russian military forces. There was nothing extemporized about any of it. This suggests they were the result of very long term planning and practice. That includes all the actions from Russian soldiers pretending to be Ukrainians to the propaganda about ethnic repression and Nazis running amuck. None of that existed in any important way last year. It all started after his man in Kiev got booted out and the Sochi Olympics ended. This statement of yours "Just as Westerners feel the need to help fledgling democracies, he feels the need to help repressed Russians. Our SF are designed to go in and help freedom fighters; his are doing the same." indicates a willingness to accept Putin's propaganda at face value when all the evidence indicates that everything that has happened is the result of pre-meditated Russian aggression.

There is no reason at all to believe that Putin intends to stop, especially since ha is meeting no real resistance. He is only about 60 so he has a lot of years to become Vlad the Great through conquest. But at the same time he is around 60 already so if he wants to be Vlad the Great he had better keep moving.

[kaur]

Somebody has done good job. It seems that Russian hard core nationalists are fighting for Ukraine. Main declared opponent is Right sector, Ukrainian nationalists. Crazy ...

http://inforesist.org/znakomtes-bliz...y-na-donbasse/

[Stan]

... and so it begins ...

Get what you can there fast, the rest takes more time ...

What exactly are they going to get...

150 airborne troops without parachutes and small arms

In addition to being part of annual Spring Storm exercises this symbolic troop rotation is probably making the 10s of thousands of Russian troops across the borders roll on the floor, LMAO.

What in creation

The deployment of ground troops is part of bilateral agreements with the four countries and is separate from the broader effort of the NATO alliance to step up military readiness across its vast eastern border.

Seems we forgot that NATO should be running the show and have yet again stepped into the breech blindly. Afghanistan anyone ?