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| Futurists & Theorists Future Competition & Conflict, Theory & Nature of Conflict, 4GW through 9?GW, Transformation, RMA, etc. |
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#1 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: The State of Partachia, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean
Posts: 3,947
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Yes, yes and yes! Use the wrong word and you'll see the wrong problem. Quote:
I don't agree with all he says, but this is a major step forward. Bravo Maxwell!
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Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!" ![]() - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya. - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya. Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition |
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#2 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 6,113
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'The real challenge is how to harness these professionals and benefit from their knowledge and experience' (pg.4 first paragraph).
Col. Maxwell writes on the US experience, I have doubts - as an outsider - that the military tolerate and encourage what maybe seen as dissident thought. In wartime that should be different, looking at the UK in WW2 some of the developments required external political support, scientific discovery and removal of obstactles. Plus in-service realisation that old methods had failed. Today the USA is at war, so dissident / new thought can be heard and listened to. I've not read much on the Iraqi campaign, unlike many here, but it appears to be a combination of factors that led to the changes. Interestingly we appear to see now in the Afghan policy sphere a re-think on the strategy and aims. Hopefully Col. Maxwell's test will be passed. Now back to my armchair. davidbfpo |
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#3 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Kansas
Posts: 1,097
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The one slight disagreement or probably better stated concern I had with it is the fact that a key component of what those outside "Think Tanks" bring to the party that that military can't or at least do to perception shouldn't.
The bully pulpit. Institutions in the civilian sector which focus on "thinking" about issues have the opportunity to bring diverse opinions to bare in the public forum not to mention the fact that they spend inordinate amounts of money sending their members to various areas in order to gather information and perspective. Let's say that instead we stuck to uniformed thinkers doing the heavy lifting and developing strategies. 1- Where or how should they go about proselytizing what they've discerned. Won't be conferences sponsored by Think Tanks because remember we don't need them. So are we left with media appearances. If we do that how long before public perception is that their being propagandized vs informed. I may have mis-read the paper but this was what occurred to me during my reading.
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Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur |
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#4 |
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Former Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: South of Mason Dixon Line
Posts: 485
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..to do out loud thinking, reasoning, and have information put out there for thoughtful consideration by others, worldwide, as now via computuers (e-mail),live radio and TV, yes you can have call in VOA radio and TV programs in critical areas of the world as well as in sophisticated, well educated parts of the world.
Civilians run VOA, and while technically government employees, can be about as "free" in stimulating discussion as Public Radio and Public TV. *I used to dislike Public TV and radio coverage of US politics until I recognized that with the change of admnistration, for now at least, Pubic Radio and TV now bring on more conservative guests to counterbalance the new liberalism in power in DC. Public Radio & TV of course did the exact opposite when Pres. Bush was in office. Converse or reverse psychology to assure all views are thought about is good, healthy in my view. What think you? |
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#5 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,843
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While I agreed with many aspects of this article, I have strong reservations about what I perceived COL Maxwell's bottom line to be.
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[QUOTE]The argument is often made that the existing concepts are insufficient for today’s security environment and therefore new concepts are required, despite the fact that in the case of SFA and FID probably 95% of the concepts are the same. If these new concepts are required then why do all these traditional security activities still exist? No one has identified these concepts as obsolete and directed that they be stricken from the doctrine and lexicon.[/QUOTE] In a classified forum I could go on endlessly where we have failed to achieve our objectives or desired effects with our current FID doctrine and SFA authorities and processes. During a recent discussion on our drug war strategy for a particular location, I asked the briefer for his assessment on our progress. The answer, as expected, was that it is getting much worse. The same can be said about other security related problems that would fall under the realm of FID. We have been throwing money and so called "time tested" concepts at these problems for years, and often to no avail. I'm sure we would all agree whoever wins the terminology debate is less important than who wins the war/conflict. Why do we continue to do the same thing, even though we don't achieve our desired effects? We have similiar shortcomings around the globe and the common denominators to all these problems is our terminology (it shapes how we view and define the problem, and as WILF stated if you define the problem incorrectly you will come up with the wrong solution), doctrine, and current authorities (which IMHO is a fundamental reason we do not do FID effectively, thus the SECDEF's push for SFA to transform this process). I'm confident that WILF and COL Maxwell will respond that it isn't the terminology or doctrine that created these problems, but the incorrect application of the existing doctrine. Maybe, but the recurring challenge is how do we prepare our military to win these irregular conflicts. War is war is not a helpful answer, doing more of the same is not helpful, something is broke and that implies we need to change to fix it. In response to the excerpt I pasted above from COL Maxwell's great article is that I would argue that some of these older terms and concepts may be invalid, and we do them simply because it is they way we have always done business. It takes a dynamic leader to force change on the military, it always has. This debate should center on how we get better at fighting war, specifically irregular warfare. I think all agree that IW is poorly defined, but regardless of what we call it we don't have a good track record for wrestling with this beast. Last edited by Bill Moore; 03-16-2009 at 03:38 AM. |
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#6 | |||||
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 8,058
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That is why I contend that those who say we, the Armed forces do it by default or it won't get done are missing the point -- while that's true, it's a default setting and that needs to be changed. Quote:
Thus, I suggest the real issue is not how do we get better at fighting a war; we can do that and we adapt pretty well -- the issue is what wars we get into and what the goals are. If the goals are not achievable... Or known... Quote:
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We don't have a good track record for wrestling because we've tried to box against wrestlers, judokas and karatekas. The problem is not that we can't do good stuff -- the problem is that we clumsily create problems and don't intervene until it's too late and the problems have become unbelievably complex and not totally conducive to a military solution. |
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#7 | |||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,111
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Been looking for a good, accessible, Ecology book to share and am still looking however they all boil down to competition for resources between individual/systems. My Microbiology books and Water/Wastewater Treatment books can be summed up as how to define/quantify nutrient/waste cycling in controlled/wild bacterial systems. Some of my Geotechnical Engineering books are great about mapping and understanding the engineering properties of heterogeneous foundations upon which we hope to build. Bouquet's book The Scientific Way of Warfare does a good job of covering how we are trying to move things along from art to science in the application of warfare (I see warfare as methods of waging war...the adjectives preceding warfare are thus descriptive and needed...akin to eskimos and their words for snow). McNamara's failures & successes are pretty interesting...he was building on concepts from the 30's and 40's. German Economic History has been very interesting as well... Found no answers to bet the farm on but still searching Quote:
Best, Steve
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Sapere Aude Last edited by Surferbeetle; 03-16-2009 at 05:47 AM. |
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#8 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 8,058
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All that's required is the civilian leadership realize it has to bow with respect to what can be achieved to the military knowledge resident in DoD and said militarily knowledgeable folks must give their best and honest advice (something that I do not believe has happened all too often and thus credibility has been harmed). That entails knowing the perils and pitfall of intervening, FID and such and not believing that it's a dirty nasty job we shouldn't do -- we may not have a choice and trying to skew the rules patently did not work. What I was really pointing at was the urgent need to get DoD out of being the lead agency in international relations and activities. Not their job and with all respect to many CinCs who have done a good job, I have to point out that there have been a few who did not do a good job. The competitive military environment is not conducive to raising thoughtful and patient diplomatic individuals with deep knowledge of the nations and cultures in their AO and it does not lead many of those folks to accept the advice of the occasional sharp MAJ or LTC FAO. Arrogance and egos. Not that State or the Intel community are a whole lot better... There's nothing wrong with trying to make the art of war into a more 'scientific' activity -- you won't succeed simply because people and their decision processes (see all the above...) are involved but there's certainly nothing wrong with trying. I've watched a large number of efforts over the years attempt that; none successful so far but one can always hope...
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#9 | ||||||
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,843
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A hard sell, but I agree we have to pick our fights very carefully, some simply are not winable. Assuming we get drawn into less fights in the future, we could focus more effort on isolating the trouble spots by focusing on preventative efforts on the periphery. Quote:
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#10 | |||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,111
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There are alot of sharp people out there with good networks and insights
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Sapere Aude |
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#11 |
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Former Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: South of Mason Dixon Line
Posts: 485
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IF working with terminology and wording has the direct effect of better focusing practical, down to earth goals and objectives despite "how it used to be done in other warare in the good old days"...which era I come from...they wordsmithing and terminology are a huge benefit and sorely needed.
I would like to be hearing now from our Aussie PhD Sociologist on this topic and about Colonel Maxwell's remarks, as well as the two Generals remarks "against" high faluting words. As an old school type, I am somewhat stuck with General Nathan Bedford Forrest's comment about how to win a battle and a war: "You get there firstest with the mostest." Forrest, and Mosby, were in their day pretty good "irregular warfare" fighters. But, the didn't have to deal with terrorists using mosques as forts, suicide bombers, including the use of children for suicide missions, and all the gory process and mess the Taliban and al Qaida are using today in Paksitan, Afghanistan, and in Iraq. Colin Powell... who may never have studied or read Forrest or Mosby (Powell is an ROTC product, whereas both Forrest and Mosby are taught I believe at West Point)... believed in overwhelming force. I was in Desert Storm I, remember, on this side running the whole airlift as the Assistant Deputy Commander for same, and know how many troops and support equipment, including tanks, we airlifted on C-5s. And, since Powell, who led the first President Bush into an early armistace to get out of Kuwait and Iraq War # 1, perhaps rightly fearing that the various Arab nations military participants would fall apart quickly if we persisted too long...here again we are into the Sunni governance systems vs. the Shia governance systems, this topic is unavoidable...then neither Powell or anyone else had a tie it down and settle it "plan" and we ended up with the long running UN Resolutions and sanctions against Iraq, which failed miserably. Now that was somewhat regular warfare. Today's irregular warfare is religiously driven by Sunni extremist/terrorist fanatics who are controlled only when they are dead...not rehabitable in my book, despite the retraining schools Saudis are using. Irregular warfare needs lots of focus, terms, definitions, and that in turn may help speed up the what, where, when, how, and/or get out and leave it alone as best as it "could be done" process. Comments all of you have made are much more sophisticated than this, but I am simple and never hide this fact. |
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#12 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 2,421
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Yes, just as it was irrelevant to the big picture of the conflict in Vietnam that we had arguably won every battle, but lost the war; a similar logic could be applied to the Cold War as a whole. We attained a "Tie" in Korea and a "Loss" in Vietnam, the two conflicts that accented the larger Cold War effort to contain the Soviet Union: a "Win." So the fact that we never won a Cold War conflict is equally unimportant to the fact that they continued us on a course to win the larger competition they were a part of. So, the deep thought for today is what is the bigger competition that we are trying to win today (i.e., what is our new national Grand Strategy now that the Grand Strategies of Containment are 20 years in the rearview mirror); and how important are achieving "wins" in Iraq or Afghanistan to attaining that larger victory? If we don't define what that larger victory is first we'll never know the answer; but once we do, I suspect that we may find that commiting too much National credibility, blood and treasure to attaining "wins" in all of the intermediate objectives, may well hinder our chances of grasping the big prize. Much of the definitional drama that Dave describes is due to this lack of strategic focus to guide our efforts, and the resultant clamoring among the masses of self-appointed experts (myself included) to attempt to describe what all of this post Cold War struggle is really all about, and how the tools of globalization have affected the time proven tactics of dealing with such struggles. Lets get a strategic mark well out in front of us so that we can all give way together. Once we have that, I suspect much of the confusion will begin to sort out, and we will be able to assess proper priorities where we need to "win", and where a "tie" or "loss" will suffice.
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Robert C. Jones Intellectus Supra Scientia "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired) |
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#13 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: The State of Partachia, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean
Posts: 3,947
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Destroying the enemy (defeating the enemy) is only relevant to political objectives. It's rarely an end in itself. You only destroy armies to apply pain to the Government/Leadership and the people they represent. Once disarmed they are incapable of doing the same to you.
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Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!" ![]() - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya. - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya. Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition |
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#14 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,843
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Bob's World, most excellent point for consideration, one loss (Vietnam) and one draw (Korea), and we still won. However, looking at it from the Soviet perspective, they also had one loss (Afghanistan), so it was a tie militarily.
Wilf, I agree with your comment, but my underlying point is that we have a particular way of waging war, or a preferred way, which I suspect is largely shaped by our culture. Other nations and non-state actors may look at how they approach war entirely different. Regardless of how each opponent behaves and designs their strategy it is still war, but we generally tend to approach war in a threat centric manner, or using George's resurrected quote, get there the firstest with the mostest. I think the phrase spectrum of war is misleading, but it will have to do for now. We "tend" to have the same approach regardless of where we are in the spectrum of war (low intensity or high intensity). I agree strongly with you and COL Maxwell's assertion that war is war, what I am wrestling with is what Selil hit on, the types of warfare. I believe there is some utility to categorize the types (conventional, irregular, unconventional, etc.), as long as one doesn't take himself too seriously. The type of training and strategy for fighting each one can be considerably different. Is there any disagreement with assertion? If so, please explain. I agree with Ken, we tend to try to wrestle with a boxer (bad analogy since the wrestler would normally win), thus my argument is not with the "war is war" argument, but over the types of warfare and how we organize, train and plan to fight them. In my opinion that is the so what of this discussion. |
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