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| Futurists & Theorists Future Competition & Conflict, Theory & Nature of Conflict, 4GW through 9?GW, Transformation, RMA, etc. |
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#121 | ||
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Council Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: In Barsoom, as a fact!
Posts: 945
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First you have to separate Western and Middle East Muslim NGO. And after you have to separate between the progressist ones and the non-progressist ones. They are tools but as said Wilf, if you say yes then you have to endure the consequences… And basically, all NGO work is undermining state responsibility and providing services that should be given by the state. Not only Muslim once. Western NGO are just patching what governments are not capable to provide. But saying so, avoiding all NGO work would lead to disaster. But thinking NGO will give you more legitimacy is a false statement. Quote:
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#122 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: The State of Partachia, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean
Posts: 3,947
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Why allow a functional instrument of enemy policy to continue to provide service? Obviously good judgement is required. EG: Why close down a functioning medical centre?
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Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!" ![]() - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya. - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya. Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition |
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#123 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Slapout,Al.
Posts: 4,453
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#124 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: In Barsoom, as a fact!
Posts: 945
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Quote:
But what if you supply it, make it better with lower cost, extend its functionalities? If you run it, you also control a strong point of command/recrutement (from my short experience in Lebanon). Keeping working stuff that is profitable to the population and turn it to your interrest would be much better, is it? Return of experience from Afghanistan has shown that closing manufactures hold by ennemy did turn the population against the coalition. Before, taliban or not taliban, population was only interrested into getting incomes. The immediat effect/perseption of coalition presence has been unemployment. Whit civilians, what you have to play with are the benefits they can earn from your presence. They will follow the one who provides the better benefits. I bought a lot of security like this. ( Cf Zun Tsu: treat well the prisonners, they will gain your ranks. For those who like literature. )
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#125 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: The State of Partachia, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean
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Quote:
__________________
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!" ![]() - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya. - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya. Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition |
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#126 | ||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,111
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Our area of agreement: Police/security forces are necessary to hold ground. Our area of disagreement: Development is required to hold ground. My thesis is that Governments remain in power by providing acceptable Government Services to their populaces. Acceptable Government Services are defined as security, basic services, economic benefits, and political representation to either the majority or key demographic factions. Insurgencies must either provide more acceptable Government Services than the Government in power does or they will fail. Neither side has the luxury of only focusing upon security services. A year in Iraq during 03-04 and an excess of four decades spent living in various countries run by ‘functioning’ (as opposed to failed) governments able to provide basic services, economic benefits, and political representation to either the majority or key demographic factions rounds out my practical experience for this particular data point. So much for my experience…let us look at a historical data point of interest to you and I: Israel My armchair observation is that before and during Israel’s War of Independence an Israeli shadow government, consisting of the Va'ad Leumi, the Haganah, and other elements taxed its people and provided Government Services which were more acceptable than those provided by the British. Quote:
Providing appropriate and adequate resourcing and staffing to accomplish this full spectrum mission are, in my opinion, the roach parts in the schwarma. As always my position is that those who wish to accomplish this particular mission must work with and in support of the populace and power structures on the ground in the country involved in order to accomplish the mission. Limiting resourcing and staffing to that required for a stereotypical CvC/Fulda Gap/All Kinetics All The Time approach fails to address full spectrum mission requirements, and does not address the lessons provided by the Va'ad Leumi, the Haganah, and others. Best, Steve
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Sapere Aude Last edited by Surferbeetle; 10-11-2009 at 09:17 PM. Reason: Clarity... |
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#127 | ||
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,877
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Posted by M-A Lagrange
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posted by Surferbeetle, Quote:
Another key to success is finding a way to deflate our enlarged western egos. |
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#128 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,877
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Posted by Slapout
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The EBO style, which emerged in the 90s had nothing to do with the sosphisticated point that M-A addressed, rather it was focused on technical sensors and putting steel on target, and predicting the effect of the outcome (see all, know all, shape all). EBO gradually evolved to assuming we could accurately guess second and third order effects of human/social behavior in reaction to our interagency activities. I think that line of thought developed about the same time that Meth became the drug of choice in our universities
Last edited by Bill Moore; 10-11-2009 at 09:28 PM. |
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#129 | |||
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Council Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,877
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Posted by WILF,
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#130 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Slapout,Al.
Posts: 4,453
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Quote:
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#131 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 825
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M-A's point: NGO's (and military), by building wells, schools, medical clinics, actually undermines the governments we intend to support/extend unless there is a downstreaming process for them to rapidly take it over and make it work.
The more I look at this, I think that Money as a Weapon of military stability is just an openly failed medium to long-term strategy. Quick hits and low hanging fruit (and the photo op). When we occupy a country and remove the current government, we have to recognize the limits of our ability to put something new in place. Instead, US (and probably not the military), has to learn how to jump in to support and expand existing governmental systems, Period. If Spanish NGOs, US AID Constratcors, and US civilian-employee-assignees pressured to serve, had commandeered the US reconstruction efforts Post-WWII, we would still be there threshing it out. The first Marshall Plan phase was, to a great extent punative and explicitly involved dismantling factories, services: one characterization was that the goal was to turn Germany into a pastoral agricultural land. It was not until we gave up on that, moved to the Germanification plans, that things began to work. If we are genuinely trying to politically outcompete Taliban affinities through extension of essential services, and the values of an alternate lifestyle, when are we really going to start? Clear, Hold and Build without a strong development and service extension program is just Clear, Clear, Re-Clear. Having said that, actual Afghan involvement would probably not result in so many schools, health clinics, and expensive NGO projects, but more on small scale, community-supported projects---things that would add a dollar (MA's point) to somebody's pocketbook), and gradually move them a step better than last year. Strategic patience. Steve Steve |
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#132 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 825
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John Prado, NSC Historian, has been reading the accounts of Mac Bundy, trying to assess the decision-framework in front of the President.
In his article posted on the History News Network, he underscores how,like Vietnam, military efforts at clearing, clearing, and re-clearing are not going to result in success without a strong civilian success process to hold and build. The path of decision-making that a president must follow after an escalation decision, it seems history is suggesting, becomes very narrow and fraught with risks. http://www.hnn.us/articles/118034.html "In Vietnam in 1967, to return to the Johnson analogy, for some months things seemed to go well enough, except for the lack of visible military or counterinsurgency progress. But the political side of the equation did not improve. Desperate for success, President Johnson launched a PR campaign designed to showcase the supposed gains in the war. Light could be seen at the end of the tunnel intoned the American ambassador to South Vietnam. Then came the Tet Offensive and America was visibly shaken. We need not engage the argument about the true outcome at Tet to make the point that the Vietnamese adversary could carry out their country-wide initiative because the measures possible for Johnson were not ones that actually affected the adversary’s capability. And such real progress as there was could not alter the final outcome of the war, except for adding to the toll in blood and treasure. This too is characteristic of the Afghan war today. Reconstruction and civil affairs efforts will be unable to win the hearts and minds of Afghans disgusted at the dishonesty and profligacy of the Karzai government. A plan to mobilize massive friendly forces will founder in the crevasses of Afghan politics and the reluctance of the people to take up arms. An American or NATO buildup at any level will be incapable of actually winning the battle. The Taliban enemy, safely ensconced in bases across the border in Pakistan, chooses when it wants to fight. Widely touted plans to separate factions of Taliban by paying them off, depend on the entirely unsubstantiated thesis that there are enemy groups just waiting to be bought. In short the military strategy does not affect the fulcrum that might change the balance. The best U.S. force may be able to accomplish—like Vietnam—is likely to be prolonging stalemate. And the longer that persists—worse if deterioration becomes evident—the more restricted become the options for President Obama. This is the real Afghan problem." |
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#133 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,111
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...without a good NCO around they tend to get into trouble.
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Kurdistan appears to be a region in which development and conflict has coexisted for some time. As I understand things Kurdistan received a boost towards autonomy from the rest of Iraq in April of 1991 with UN SC Resolution 688 and the resulting no fly zones. UN SC Resolution 986 and UN SC Resolution1153 (effective 1996 and 1998) resulted in Kurdistan receiving a legal cut of Iraq’s oil revenues and helped to fund a fair amount of development efforts. Alongside this development effort the PUK, KDP, and other Kurdish organizations fought among themselves for control as well as with and against Iraqi, Iranian, and Turkish elements using a variety of warfare methods. The US was able to mediate a fairly functional reconciliation between thePUK and KDP with the Washington Agreement of September 1998. During my time in Iraq I noted that Kurdish construction and engineering companies regularly pushed out into the Mosul area. My trips to Kurdistan revealed a vibrant business community, good infrastructure, a capable security force, rule of law, and visible participation in daily life by both sexes. The Kurds appear to have a concerned diaspora, Turkey appeared to be a major of supplier of goods to the region, and it is my understanding the Iran is another major supplier of goods. Upon my return home I have been following the KRG as it navigates the rough diplomatic and security conditions hemming it on all sides. They are making some interesting moves. From a CA-centric standpoint Kurdistan might be seen as a model for the successes associated with spending more effort on advising a Government as opposed to ‘building’ one. Both efforts require skilled and experienced folks but only advising fully relies upon local folks for success. I had a very interesting conversation with a smart, capable, and conservative GO about this particular friction point which lies between mission failure, acceptable risk, and mission success. GO’s have a lot of responsibility to juggle and are understandably looking for the sure thing; yet I contrast this with my many experiences in which I have found that local civilians are very capable of accomplishing the development mission in the right circumstances with the right support. No easy answers tonight…
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Sapere Aude |
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#134 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 825
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Steve:
Still struggling my way through Gareth Stansfield's latest tome: Crisis in Kirkuk: The Ethnopolitics of Conflict and Compromise by Liam Anderson, Gareth Stansfield (Aug 2009) He was with us on the UN Disputed Boundaries Team (one of eighteen equivalent experts), so his book is a digest of much of the dispute team's as-yet-unpublished research, together with his huge insights into the history of the region. Steve PS- Unlike him (an Exeter College Prof), all the US PRTs and civilian experts have a one year non-disclosure agreement. Tick, tick, tick. |
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#135 | ||||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,111
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Greatly appreciate the reference. One of the ones that I am currently working on is John J. Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Well if you publish I'll buy a copy if you sign it. ![]() Here is another thinker... Guns Germs and Steel_1 of 3 Quote:
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Sapere Aude Last edited by Surferbeetle; 10-12-2009 at 03:13 AM. Reason: Links... |
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#136 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 825
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Have to dust off my Morgenthau for yours.
Review talked about the UN as a frail.... I found it interesting working with the UN on many levels, but not on outcomes. Actually, before I joined their team, I read Samantha Powers' book Chasing the Flame. She may have intended to glorify SRSG De Mello, but some parts of it truly shook me to the core, and not about the HQ Bombing in Baghdad. But, the UN's ability, as with the disputed boundary team, has an unprecedented convening power to bring the likes of Gareth and Wilfred Buchta to a conflict zone to deeply study the problems, and visit all the parties (including the surrounding countries). Our team's members were meeting with he-who-shall-not-be-named in Iraq, plus every surrounding leader, and their folks could meet with Sistani and others first hand. The initial results, as with the unpublished KRG reports, and the election snafu in Afghanistan, are almost predictably watered down, but the secondary effect of bringing these deep experts to the scene does,in fact, do something immensely positive, if only after the fact (once they publish), and the re-set they can bring to an issue in later stages. Still scratching my head a little though. Steve |
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#137 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 825
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Steve:
"Well if you publish I'll buy a copy if you sign it." It's called "The Mapmaker's Tale." Using the frame story method of the Arabian Nights, it tells the story of the political/administrative boundary disputes and related population and government administration issues in and around Iraq and Afghanistan, and our inability to come grasp with and address them. In prior days, maps were the big thing that nations and military intel fought over for their intrinsic value. Now, at least on the civilian side, it is just a fight over turf, and contracts. We couldn't get the right map in the right hands until all the agencies finished bleeding it to death for its internal merits. And by then, it is too late for whatever the long-forgotten purpose was. We've certainly come a long way on the path to Byzantine Empire. Not the big picture of these places, but, perhaps an interesting lesson yet to be learned. Still, a long way from draft to final publication. Steve |
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#138 | ||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: The State of Partachia, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean
Posts: 3,947
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Quote:
Quote:
Given a specific context, social services are Why you are fighting the war. They are not How you fight the war.
__________________
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!" ![]() - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya. - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya. Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition |
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#139 | |||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: The State of Partachia, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean
Posts: 3,947
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Quote:
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__________________
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!" ![]() - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya. - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya. Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition |
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#140 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: In Barsoom, as a fact!
Posts: 945
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Hello everybody,
Well, I will not quote everybody (mainly Bill and Steve) as there are too many things to be address. Basically what Steve and Bill are saying is basically the roots of the Master in crisis management I'll be defending at La Sorbonne in 1 month. The question is how using NGOs (local and international) to provide security or at least support security efforts. The solution that comes in first though is that you need to centralise money. By pooling all donors together,you reduce the number of donors actors. Basically you will remain with USAID, ECHO (European Union) and DFID. What has been done as an experiment is to rally all small donors like CIDA,SIDA, Belgium, Spain, JICA... Under 1 umbrella. (this dream did happen and has been 1 failure and 1 success, actually working with the failure and participating to a book on the success). Once you have this you can actually coordinate for real the NGO work as you control money. You can orient NGO presence through funding to areas you want and in sectors you want. To do so you need to involve the UN. It is the only body NGO will feel confortable with to be commanded. There comes the first trap: the UN. They are so much not use to be accountable and in charge that they may #### up all the things (My actual location). For that you need a strong well controled Humanitarian Coordinator and a strong Head of OCHA. (Otherwise you end up with idiots doing what they what and weasting the money, believe me, they are just good at it). The second action is to develop specific activities that will contribue to build population security. For that you need creative NGOs with a high acceptance of the ratio risk/benefits. Basically local NGOs: they are made by the people and have an obligation of success. While international NGO have a low acceptance of the ratio risk/benefits and then will be reluctant to work in dirty places or will go against new idears, just by definition. The main idea is not to replace military/police work with NGO: this simply does not work. Security has to be taken by professionals and NGO workers are not (believe, I know what I'm talking about. Just reading military theories makes you an alien and a dangerous spy...). But where the military comes in place in that is through cooperation with NGO. Basically it is anot so much sophisticated PSYOP that youconduct to make believe NGO they are telling you what to do when actually you are monitoring what they do. This also has been experimented with + and -. Mainly due to the way military are integrating them selve into NGO information sharing network. (the basic is to go to the NGO through their channel openly and aske for advice. Not that simple.) Comments welcomed, the people I will present that next month cannot be tuffer that all of you. For Bob: I did have you point on Islamic NGO. The thing is that it is much, much more complicate. Part from Islamic Relief International Saudi Arabia (not to mess with the UK based Islamic Relief World Wide or Islamic Relief Pakistan) the picture is far from being that simple. But I also agree with you. For Wilf: what is the difference in what you propose and IDF strategy on Gaza? |
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