South Sudan: a laboratory for stabilisation

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan is now at a turning point. After a UN supported war, the country to be will experience elections in 2010 and a referendum on its independence in 2011.
For the UN, the direction is simple: now it’s time for development, stabilisation in other words.
For the Sudanese, the direction is less clear.
First of all, neither Khartoum nor Juba has interest in going for elections and even less for the referendum. Since last year, South is experiencing a backfire of ethnical violence. Every fingers are pointing to Khartoum, the big bad wolf. But a closer look to those violence shows that reality, as usual, is less simple.
- All clashes started when the SPLM, the political wing of SPLA, started to crack down. The creation of SPLM-DC, a dissident wing of SPLM seems to have been the fire starter.
- All clashes involved, at the early stage, Dinka, the SPLA major ethnic group, and former SAF supporter ethnic groups.
- If Khartoum has advantages to destabilize GoSS, SPLA also has good reasons to undermine the civil SPLM administration. The soldier time is ending and most of them may loose their place in the sun with the elections.
- After nearly 50years of war, traditional social mechanisms are completely dysfunctional. The youth is actually marginalised by the actual in power “mature”/pre elders’ class. As war has destabilise economy and put on their knees most of the population, the actual ruling age class is trying to recover by increasing dotes and traditional transactions. This leads to a de facto marginalisation of the youth that takes guns to recover what they are denied: the right to marry and be a man.
- Education in rural areas is extremely low among men and even lower among girls and women.
- The infamous LRA, the main source of organised violence, has been pushed away in neighbouring countries where they have a safe even in an inaccessible zone. They are now split in dozen of small groups hunted down by at least 3 armed forces.
- Guns and ammunitions are flying around all over the place. Some say it is Khartoum while others are saying, well Khartoum is just fuelling the fire and tacking advantage of the incapability of the GoSS to stabilise and impose law and order.
- While the house is falling apart, GoSS and NPC are preparing for war as rumours of unilateral declaration of independence from South Sudan are becoming the official speech. Not even talking about Darfur.
- Regional powers are looking at South Sudan with a melted opinion on the creation of that non ruled country. Egypt is looking at containing the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist opposition while democratic change could just bring them to power in his old friend North Sudan. Kenyan and Ugandan governments and criminal groups are looking at South Sudan as an open land ready for colonisation.
- The population is 90% rural living on agriculture with average revenues far below poverty level.
The list is long and this one is not exhaustive.
The US interest are not low in Sudan and stabilizing South Sudan is highly necessary for the region.
Somehow, it does remind me other conflicts, without the presence of international forces. As the time is to stabilisation, South Sudan is an open air laboratory for it.
The question is simple: can we just do it? And if yes: how?

[davidbfpo]

Not the best indicator, but a year ago in part of the UK there was a move amidst the entire Sudanese expatriate community to promote the elections and referendum. Rivalry alas led to some disorder and to the local police's bemusement it was all settled quickly and the unity tottered on.

I don't know if this expatriate community has influence back home; nor does it appear to be financially empowered.

Optimimsm here is very different to on the ground reality.

My questions are: will the UN contributors keep their military and civil contingents in place if violence escalates? Does their mandate involve an active role?

davidbfpo

[Tom Odom]

MA

as a longterm Sudan watcher, I would say the short answer is No, we cannot as long as we persist in supporting the illusion of a single Sudan.

Tom

[M-A Lagrange]

Well, the question of an active participation of the UN in security, even for stabilisation, is a pure theoretical one. The South Sudan mission is under chapter 6, with the possibility if there is huge deterrence of the situation to use chap 7 privileges.
But the SRSG reaffirmed that up to now and for the future, UNMIS would implement a full chap 6. In clear a wait and see UN mission. The other problem is manpower. No one is really ready to provide more troops for SS.
Also, if things go bad, UN will redraw. And that is what the oldschool UN South Sudan wants: to go back to Naerobi and its confort (we are far from people centric concerns). Basically if violence errupt, UN loose their mandate...

So UN tried to push, and is still trying, SPLA to intervene into cattle wars. But as said previously, there are numerous question marks on the role of SPLA into starting the clashes. For me, it looks like calling the incendiary guy to play fireman.
On the other side, GoSS is trying hard (they say) to show they do have control. But… If they are not as bad as FARDC, they not too far from them in terms of discipline. Sometime, I even wonder what they have in mind. They contracted Kenyan army to train them. I have pretty low knowledge of Kenyans army records, but still, SAF in Khartoum must be laughing.

[M-A Lagrange]

From Sudan tribune Who and what is militia in South Sudan?

In Warrap state, according the media reports, heavy artilleries were used in fighting involving two Dinka clans. In Lakes state Agar-Dinka had recently attacked the SPLA convoy destroying a number of their vehicles using Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs). In Juba’s weapons search it is reported that even anti-air craft weapons plus RPGs, PKMs, etc., were found in the hands of civilians. So if the Lou-Nuer attackers used such type of weapons it should not be something new to any body.


also, I was talking with people from Human Rights about LRA. They asked me my solution. I answered: hunt them, kill them and when you catch one alive put him in jail.
their solution has been: let's go for reintegration...

Why can't we call a dog a dog? A civil war a civil war and not development with pre-election difficulties or war criminals just misleaded youth?

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan denies recruiting former US officials as lobbyists

First announce with big highlights, North Sudan is denying now recruiting US officials as lobbyists. Well, once thing is sure, they need some in DC to be on their side.

Kiir accuses Sudan’s ruling NCP of arming Southern militias

On the other side, What ever President Kiir may say, the last reports from Small Arms Survey are pointing out the leakage of weapons and ammunition from SPLA Stock piles. When you want your dog dead: accuse him of rage…

Bentiu clashes purely SPLA affair: official spokesmanAnd just to confirm that they are really far from capable, SPLA started to fight each others, turning a so called army of clowns, into a gang of militia.

But we are going for elections, free and fair…

[Tom Odom]

And in the category of unending conflict

Africa’s Last, Next War
Darfur isn't the worst crisis in Africa. In fact, it's not even the worst crisis in Sudan.

Arab horsemen toting Kalashnikovs provided by the Sudanese government thunder into a town. Women are raped in their huts. Men are gunned down as they flee for the bush, and children are packed off on the back of the raiders' horses while stolen cattle are herded away to be sold.

It's a scene that's become all too familiar for those who've followed the crisis in the western Sudanese region of Darfur over the past five years. But this isn't Darfur circa 2005. It's any one of hundreds of villages in southern Sudan in the 1980s. Or 1992, or 1997, or 2003, and quite possibly 2010.

Before there were Save Darfur panties or George Clooney-led Darfur peace missions, Sudan was engulfed in a much longer and more destructive civil war between Khartoum's Islamist government and the country's animist and Christian south. The most recent phase of that war, from 1983 until 2005, killed an estimated 2 million civilians—more than six times the number thought to have been killed in Darfur over the past six years. Now, as U.S. attention wanders, it's coming back, and it will be worse than ever.

Good article and here is the money line:

But that argument assumes Sudan, as currently conceived, is a functioning state—which it isn't. Counting the two failed pacts signed with Darfur's Sudan Liberation Army and eastern Sudanese rebels in 2006, "the whole country has ceased to exist and become a collection of peace agreements," says Medhane Tadesse, an East Africa analyst for the Ethiopia-based Center for Policy Research and Dialogue. "And [Khartoum] knows these peace agreements won't be implemented.

[M-A Lagrange]

What I love with South Sudan is that they fear nothing even being ridiculous. Now they remind USA that they have laws to pass for them to have their independency…
Is not a failed state we are building it is a silly joke.

SPLM diplomacy stresses importance of referendum law
Saturday 10 October 2009 04:30.

October 9, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – With the Comprehensive Peace Agreement set to expire in January 2011, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement is trying to stress to the international community the importance of the terms of the proposed referendum law, which would govern the vote on popular determination in 2011.

When the CPA expires, the oil-sharing provisions will be terminated. Part of planning for the post-referendum period involves not only how to conduct the vote for separation, but how to run the oil economy after the outcome of the vote.

An official delegation was sent last week by the President of South Sudan, first to attend the UN General Assembly Meeting. The delegation was led by GOSS Minister of Cabinet Affairs, H. E. Dr. Luka Tombekana Monoja and the GOSS Minister of Regional Cooperation, H. E. Gen. Oyai Deng Ajak.

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan’s SPLM gives ultimatum to NCP over law package
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32766

Sudan ex-Southern rebel group today issued an ultimatum to its partner in the Government of National Unity (GoNU) saying the dominant National Congress Party (NCP) has week to agree on a number of draft laws.

The laws include referendum and national security laws hotly debated with the NCP for most of this year.

The SPLM submitted a memorandum to the parliament speaker saying that these laws need to be tabled within a week or else they will boycott the national assembly.

“We are going to boycott the whole parliamentary session if they do not respond positively,” Yasir Arman, head of the SPLM’s northern sector was quoted by Reuters.

“There is an absence of political will from the National Congress” he said.

The SPLM stressed that this is the last session of the parliament before the April 2010 elections and thus these laws need to be passed as soon as possible.

After reminding international community, they blame Khartoum. We are on the road to peace…

For sure!

And I forgot the most hilarious :Salva Kiir death rumour spead by... Whe don not know yet.

This joke gonna turn to disaster as sure it is a joke.
May be it is time to have a closer look at what is going on in South Sudan.
Or in 6 month, I believe the same old folks will meet in Juba to patch the disaster.

[M-A Lagrange]

3. The UN Security Council needs to address the leadership failures in Juba. Currently, insecurity in the South is worse than Darfur because the leadership of the SPLM has no direction and crippled by corruption. The collapse of the CPA would trigger humanitarian crisis in the region and it’s the responsibility of the UN and the World Superpowers to take seriously leadership failure in the South as a threat to international peace.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32768

This is may be the most clairevoyant comment I read about the situation in Sout Sudan stated by a South Sudanese body since I arrived.
But I still wonder how people from this place can come to the conclusion that they are not capable to rule the country they did fought for.

[M-A Lagrange]

Japan is funding 2010 with 10 millions…
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32829

Is there a government in South Sudan
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32871

In fact, I suspect that whenever the SPLM SG talks about a failed state, he actually refers to GOSS. Honestly, at present, there is no establishment nearer to the description of a government in Juba except for a bunch of well fed and well protected individuals who go about their daily private business of looting public coffers!

What I like in that article is that they just point out what is reality. When can keep on blinding our selves but the hard facts are coming back to slap up back to the real world.

[M-A Lagrange]

First the funny news from the failed country under construction. And then the bad sad news.

South Sudan calls on Khartoum to fully cooperate with US new policy
By James Gatdet Dak
October 22, 2009 (JUBA) – The Juba-based semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan has welcomed the new US policy on Sudan, and called on the Government of National Unity in Khartoum to fully cooperate with it.
In a press statement on Wednesday, Southern Sudan’s Vice President, Dr. Riek Machar said the policy was positive and would result to the lifting of sanctions imposed on the country by the successive American administrations if Sudan responded positively.
He said there would be no logic to continue with the sanctions in the country if the issues highlighted in the policy were addressed and fully resolved.
Sudan would also be removed from the list of the states that sponsor terrorism if it practically cooperates with the policy, he added.
Dr. Machar, who is also the Deputy Chairperson of the ruling party in the South, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) explained that the new US policy would help his government in trying to speedily curb the ongoing inter and intra-tribal fighting in the region.
SPLM and its peace partner, the northern ruling National Congress Party (NCP), which signed the North-South peace deal in 2005, last week achieved a breakthrough by agreeing on the final draft bill for the conduct of the Southern Sudan referendum on secession in January 2011.
SPLM officials however accuse their northern partner of dragging its feet on implementing a number of other outstanding issues in the agreement, such as the North-South border demarcation and national security law needed for the conduct of the upcoming elections due in six months.
They also accuse them of arming certain groups to destabilize the region.
The US policy which calls for engagement with the Khartoum government spells out the use of ‘stick and carrot’ approach to deal with the regime.
It calls for a campaign of "pressure and incentives" to pressure Khartoum into pursuing peace in the troubled Darfur region, settling disputes with the semi-autonomous government in Southern Sudan and providing the United States greater cooperation in stemming international terrorism.
Washington said it would set strict time lines for the Sudanese President, Omer Hassan Al-Bashir to fulfill the conditions of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
(ST)
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32877

Then the bad news

Gunmen abduct Red Cross worker in West Darfur
October 22, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — A French aid worker of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been abducted today by unidentified armed men near the capital of western Darfur state.
Gauthier Lefevre, who was kidnapped around midday, was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
He was travelling in one of two clearly marked ICRC vehicles when he was seized a few kilometers from the town.
The Red Cross said ignoring the identity of the abductors and their motivations. However the charity requested the help of the Sudanese authorities "and other parties with the aim of resolving the situation as swiftly as possible."
In Paris, the French foreign ministry confirmed the kidnapping and asked for an immediate and unconditioned release of the aid worker. It further said the French embassy in Sudan kept in close contact with ICRC.
Since the arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court against the Sudanese President Omer Al-Bashir for war crimes last March, aid workers and peacekeepers face growing attacks and abduction.
Earlier this week two females aid workers were released by their kidnappers after more than three months and other tow UNAMID personnel are still under the hands of their abductors.
(St)
For all the soft rebel with a cause: Men keep on fighting!
I am sure all SWJ supports you and like to see you free asap. (right now)

[M-A Lagrange]

Government denies abduction of two Sudanese aid workers in Darfur
October 23, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — Sudan has dismissed reports about the abduction in Darfur of two Sudanese nationals working for The Kadhafi Foundation, run by Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi’s son.
Today’s earlier reports said the two aid workers had been kidnapped near El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, on Wednesday as they supervised association projects.
Sudan’s state minister for humanitarian affairs told the AFP today that security service in El- Fasher told him that the two Sudanese aid workers are free now. They were freed after half an hour. It was a misunderstanding," Abdel Baqi Gilani said.
He further said they had never been kidnapped but declining to elaborate.
Sudanese intelligence services also insisted that the two men had not been abducted, according to a senior official with the UN-African Union peacekeeping force.
Two days ago unidentified gunmen kidnapped a French staffer of the International Red Cross. Gauthier Lefevre, who was kidnapped around midday, was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
However, the rebel Justice and Equality Movement accused today the Sudanese security apparatus of being behind the abduction.
Ahmed Hussein Adam, JEM spokesperson told Sudan Tribune the Frenchman had been kidnapped a Bir Bakik, around 12 klm from El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur. He added that Gauthier had met with JEM rebels to discuss the humanitarian situation in Jabel Moon.
State minister Al-Gilani said Lefevre is in "good health" and that he expected him to be released soon.
He also voiced fear of more abductions and urged foreign relief organizations "to bolster security around their offices."
(ST)

Concerning Khadafi foundation aid workers… Well, if you can have some doubts of their humanitarian engagement, they basically have proven that Khartoum is behind all that just by being released in the day.

South Sudan army accuse north of arming tribal feuds
By Ngor Arol Garang
October 24, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Southern Sudan Minister of SPLA affairs, Lt General Nhial Deng Nhial today accused Northern Sudan authorities of arming rampant tribal conflicts in the region.
Nhial, who led Southern Sudan delegation to the Ugandan capital of Kampala, where African Union Heads of State attended Special Summit on refugees, returnees and internally-displaced persons (IDPs) strongly accused Khartoum government led by the ruling National Congress Party of President Basher of pouring arms in border lines to further submission to the region to spark tribal violence.
"We know it very well that Khartoum and particularly the ruling National Congress Party is arming all Southern militias and Arab tribes in the North -South border as well as some tribes in the south to wreak havoc so GOSS is regarded as incompetent government in the eye of international community," he commented.
He further said South Sudan does not manufacture arms and there are no arms coming into Sudan through the South; "hence wonder where fresh arms gets into the region in bulky, they are imported from the north." .
The NCP which rule the northern Sudan and dominate the government of national unity denied these accusations. Also, UN officials in Sudan insisted on the important lack resource and infrastructures as well as rains shortage to explain this increasing of tribal fighting.

There was no need of weapon smuggling to see that GoSS has difficulties in understanding the concept of ruling a country.

[M-A Lagrange]

It could be funny if it was not that serious:

South Sudan and Kenya are on the edge to be at war. Well, may be it is just a remake of India Vs Pakistan in the fifties when British generals were playing with new born countries' armies.
Anyway, Kenya, who is training the new SPLA tanks' crew, has deploy several tanks on the border close to Lokichokio, in Nadapal. SPLA has done the same on his side of the border.

The escalation is due to regular cattle raids from Toposa tribe youth in Kenya to steal Turkana tribe cattle.
Both Toposa (SouthSudan) and Turkana (Kenyan) do not recognise the border and are claiming the ownership over the grazing land between Kapoeta in South Sudan and Lokichokio in Kenya. Elders have even come out with old British colonial maps to support their claims…

Who said Africa does not have written history?

Security beefed at border after attacks

By Isaiah Lucheli
The Government has established four security bases near the Kenya-South Sudan border.
Labour Minister John Munyes explained that security had been beefed up following attacks by Toposa raiders, which had led to the deaths of more than 40 Turkana herdsmen and theft of over 3,500 livestock.
Mr Munyes said bolstering security near the border was part of the Government’s plan to secure its international boundaries.
"The Government is committed to establishing Customs and Immigration offices on the country’s borders. The Immigration offices at Lokichogio are 25km away from the border. This has to change," he said.
Munyes said the decision was reached during a Cabinet meeting and that the migration offices would be built on the border points in Rift Valley, Coast, Nyanza, Western and North Eastern provinces.
He appealed to Kenya and Sudanese governments not to condone militia who attacked the innocent.
"A recent incident where Toposa militia shot at Kenyan security forces at the border should not be condoned. South Sudan Government should take the issue seriously," he said.
Munyes, however, said the Government should take blame on the escalating cases of boundary disputes with neighbouring countries due to lack of commitment in handling the Migingo Island issue.
"We have been lax while handling border disputes. This has set a bad precedent and other countries are encroaching onto our territory. This must stop," he said.

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/news/...27046&cid=159&

About the hostage in Darfur

Red Cross says has contact with abductors of French worker

October 24, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Red Cross said on Saturday it succeeded to establish contact with the kidnappers of a French staffer in the restive region of Darfur.
Gauthier Lefevre, 35, was abducted on Thursday as he was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
"The first contact was made yesterday (Friday)" said Tamara Al-Rifai the spokesperson of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Khartoum. She further said the abductors had not made any "specific demands" and that "for the moment, we do not know anything about their motives."
Sudanese government officials condemned the abduction and described the kidnappers as bandits.
Last week, kidnappers released two staffers of the Irish GOAL after spending three months in captivity. Also two civilian from the hybrid peace keeping mission are still in detention since their kidnapping last August
UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan condemned today the abduction saying it "serves nothing but to undermine humanitarian work in the region, at the sole expense of those who benefit from such endeavour."
“It harms the chances of creating a safe and secure environment for delivering humanitarian relief and impacts negatively on our ability to deliver food and basic health and welfare services in areas where they are most needed,” added Ms. Haq.
(ST)

US came with a new plan… here is the Khartoum answer…
Could that be the new form of tomorrow war?
UN peace keepers declare the conflict is finished and to make sure no one could tell another story the parties abduct relief workers to conduct operations and massacres in peace.
We probably face here a deviant replication of the media control from those last years into small wars.

Tom, can you add Sudan on the list of chaos countries?

[M-A Lagrange]

SPLM Secretary General visits Japan
October 28, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Secretary General of the Southern Sudan ruling party who is visiting Tokyo discussed yesterday with the Japanese state secretary for foreign affairs the implementation of the peace process and South’s development.
Mr Pagan Amum, the Secretary General of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is visiting Tokyo at the invitation of the Japanese foreign ministry.
Mr. Tetsuro Fukuyama, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs of Japan and Pagan on October 27 discussed southern Sudan development and the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
The meeting comes two weeks after a similar visit to Tokyo by Mutrif Siddiq, Sudanese Under-Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Fukuyama and Mutrif discussed economic cooperation, the CPA implementation and Darfur conflict resolution process.
Fukuyama stated that the new administration of the Government of Japan would continue and strengthen the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) process and actively address issues faced by Africa.
(ST)

They make less noise than the Chinese but they are everywhere in Africa. I met them in Chad, in DRC, in South Sudan…
It may come some how a little wired when they ask you if they can feed their tamagochy… And you are in the middle of nowhere.

From Reuters:
South Sudan probably faces corruption affair.
http://www.euroinvestor.fr/news/story.aspx?id=10701459
Unfortunately the link in is French but I am sure you can find it in English.
While nearly 1.2 million people are starving because of drought, GoSS officials pass contracts to import food for more than 3 billion US dollars.
The whole GoSS budget is 3.5 billion Sudanese Pounds… (Around 1.2 billion US$).

Those guys… Are they for real?

Kiir in Kenya: Borders Demarcation Federal JurisdictionStaff Writer
http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/index.php

FVP, GoSS President, Lt. Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is visiting Kenya, held a meeting with the Kenyan President, Mwai Kibaki, where they discussed bilateral relations, CPA implementation progress and other issues of common interest.

Following that presidential meeting, GoSS Minister for Regional Cooperation, Oyay Deng Ajak, held a press conference jointly with the Kenyan Minister of Internal Affairs, Jeijer Shuang Alonq, on the issues discussed in the behind-closed-doors presidential meeting.
Ajak reported that the presidential meeting has decided the establishment of a joint committee for resolving the issues that caused conflicts between the respective Sudanese- Kenyan border tribes of Toposa and Turkana, adding that the two sides stressed the need to work jointly for restoring the peaceful coexistence that was prevailing before the current conflicts. He further stated that borders demarcation jurisdiction is vested in the Federal Government rather than GoSS.

What I like with South Sudan it is that when it goes bad, it goes really bad.
In addition to nearly being at war with Kenya, their ally and troops trainer, they just come out with a financial scandal.

Those guys just remind me some militia war lord from the bush you can find in DRC. They go to war in the name of the people, kill and harass the people they fight for and when in power miss use and abuse of their power.

Concerning Kenya army training… I’m not specialised in tanks but the body count is actually 30 kenyan policement against 2 Toposa youth.
Cattle raiders are crazy as they do it for pride and social status. But it does not look too good for SPLA in a North South war revival.

Ah, Garang… Where are you? We need you so much!

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to Professor Borum. He has id'd a website monitoring events in Sudan (not just the South): http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files...dan/sudan.html and there is a list of other websites.

[M-A Lagrange]

Thanks David for reminding me that Sudan does exist… Time to end up vacations.

Good news, the ICRC hostages are in good shape according to them.
One million each. Sounds cheap, doesn't it.

keep on fighting.


Then comes the as usual depressive news from South…

US envoy discusses CPA with Sudanese adviser
November 17, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Ghazi Salah Al-Deen, Sudanese Presidential adviser and the visiting US envoy to Sudan Scott Gration discussed today the CPA implementation and Doha peace process to settle Darfur conflict.
Mr. Gration will continue to push for a compromise between the two signatories of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) over referendum bill. On Darfur issue the US envoy plans to visit displaced camps and Jebel Marra to support groups planning to hold a unity conference there.
Gration’s visit is a continuation of the efforts of the U.S. envoy to resolve the Darfur problem and to complete the interrupted talks between the two peace partners —National Congress Party and SPLM — on the CPA implementation, said Ghazi following his meeting with Gration Tuesday.
He further added that American proposals put forward by Gration during his previous visit are still under study and it is on the table for discussion between the NCP and SPLM.
The US envoy proposed to hold nex April only elections for the Sudanese presidency and the post of president of southern Sudan government, as well as state governors. He asked to adjourn the legislative elections to the period of after the southern Sudan referebda. Further Gration suggested extend the National Assembly membership from 450 to 510 seats.
The US envoy proposed to the two peace partners during his last visit also to accept the results of the fifth census but to amend the constitution in order to prevent modification of the peace agreement with a number of voters less than 80%. Also he suggests guarantying southern Sudan 30% of the executive power as it is the case currently.
The SPLM withdrew from the National Assembly on Oct 19, saying it wants parliamentary schedule for the remaining laws of referendum and national security.
The southern Sudan party further said the current draft of security law enables the security apparatus to arrest, search and detain, adding all these are against the constitution.
(ST)

[M-A Lagrange]

As Sudan prepares for elections, North and South are debating over deep and fundamental ideas.

North police just jailed SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amur and Yassir Arman for participating to a demo in Khartoum.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33374
As reply, South SPLM supporters burned NCP offices in Wau and vandalised NCP cars in Rumbek. http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33385, http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33384
In the mean time, North Sudan official media announced that UN are supporting Bashir… http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33373

I jailed your politicians against I burn your stuff… A great lesson of democracy in deed.
Well, I cannot blame SPLM. But as they say, if SPLM-DC wins the election: we (SPLA/SPLM) make a coup; if NCP win the elections in South: we make a coup; if my friend and military commanders do not win the elections: we make a coup…
So why do we want them to have elections?
Would not be easier and less efforts consuming to say: ok you have a gun then you are in power?

After Iraq, DRC and Afghanistan electoral processes, Sudan elections are strongly questioning the democracy/electoral postulate of stabilization and peace building.

More western powers are promoting democracy, more it looks like a standard colonial process with fake occidental like practices to empower friendly interlocutors.
But that’s probably all what satbilization, peace building and nation building are about.

[M-A Lagrange]

Darfur hostages threaten of death by Freedom Eagles in Africa
The head of Freedom Eagles of Africa, Abu Mohamed Rizeigi, told the AFP on Thursday November 26, they are targeting French aid workers to force French government to change its policy in the region.
He further warned they would attack the French diplomat and troops based in Chad.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33419

The situation is getting worst and worst in sub Saharan Africa for relief workers.
I am sure the guys in Abeche and N’djamena are already shaking like leaves….
More seriously, as insurgents or bandits taking political agenda cover in Africa are missing legitimate targets or are too afraid to target French paratroopers and other legionnaires taking some rest on the continent, they turn to civilians.
It raises the question of civilian participating to non war related nation building/support. Expatriated civilian seems to be safer and more secure in at war locations.

Talking about the situation in South Sudan and the progresses of the nation building process (you know, the promotion of peaceful and democratic resolution of conflicts and power sharing issues), I really like the SPLM last electoral move:

Gen Kiir forms South Sudan military command council
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33407
Just before starting the SPLM candidates selection process starts.

South Sudan democratic nation building process is really on tracks now… First you build the military apparatus and then you designate your candidates for elections.
I do not know where this is leading us but it is clear that the democratic elections on the continent (Chad 2005, DRC 2006, Kenya 2008, Zimbabwe…) are more and more looking like a formal process for western like endorsement of military dictatorship.
Only 20 year ago a wind of hope was blowing on Africa as Berlin wall was falling and democracies were overthrowing communist totalitarian regimes. Now, as Iraq and Afghanistan have completely washed out democratic elections processes credibility, Africa dictators to be are coming back to their old practices. In a global world: what is happening in one place has global impact.

It is far from being good news for African people but even a worst one for western countries. If the theory of global insurgency is correct, a global civilian surge is needed. The marches of the democracies’ empire are falling. Africa is proving us everyday that democracy enforcement and nation building is not just a formal exercise that western powers can tickle and abuse!

For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting men!

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan referendum law endorsed in cabinet, 51% ‘Yes’ vote & 60% turnout required
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33451

This shows how bad Khartoum wants to get rip of South Sudan. Well at their place I would do the same: South Sudan government went to bankrupt not even 5 years after being in charge.
There is ethnic violence all over the place.
Oil plants are in North, oil fields in South not exploited.
And basically no state and even less nation in South… Government even went to warn its administration members against self promotions for higher salaries.

Good news for once! :

Two UNAMID staff released by Darfur hostage takers
December 13, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Kidnappers in Darfur today released two civilian employees of the joint United Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission. The Nigerian man and Zimbabwean woman had been held since August 2009.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33454

And now the proof that I am a master of evil in control of the world not knowing it, just like annonced in the The Conspiracy Thread

Sudan points fingers at France in stirring this week’s demonstrations
The Sudanese government today accused France of standing behind the demonstrations staged this week by a coalition of Northern opposition parties along with the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM).

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33444

Yes we do do that sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
And supporting “nice guys” as Hassan Al-Turabi… Yes we do do that also, sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
Supporting the ICC and support Bashir arrest… Yes we definitively do do that. But we don’t take hostages!
Meeting with armed movements from Darfur? Oh yes, we do do that! For the best or the worst. Depend on which end of the gun you are.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!